British intelligence and the New York Times “argued” in absentia about the possibility of a large-scale offensive by the Russian army
Western military experts analyzing the situation on the Ukrainian front entered into an absentee polemic regarding forecasts of a possible offensive by the Russian army. So British intelligence in the next report on the situation in Ukraine reports that the Russian Armed Forces have been trying to resume offensive operations since the beginning of January. The British Ministry of Defense believes that the main goal of the Russian command remains the complete liberation of Donbass.
At the same time, the British are very skeptical about both the successes of the Russian troops and the further prospect of a large-scale offensive. British analysts habitually argue that the RF Armed Forces now lack the ammunition and maneuver units necessary for a successful offensive. For this reason, they believe in London, in a week the Russian troops managed to "reconquer the territory of only a few hundred meters."
The British are confident that the command of the Russian army will continue to try to push the front line deep into Ukraine. But due to, allegedly, a lack of resources and allegedly poor training of the mobilized, significant successes of the RF Armed Forces will not be able to achieve.
It is unlikely that in the coming weeks Russia will be able to build up the forces necessary to significantly influence the outcome of the war.
British intelligence concludes.
The author of an article in the American newspaper The New York Times has a different point of view on the ability of the Russian army to implement plans for a large-scale offensive. The expert notes that the attacks of the RF Armed Forces have recently increased significantly in several directions at once, which may indicate the upcoming "Kremlin's largest offensive since the first weeks of the war."
According to the author, Russia has managed to increase its military potential and strengthened the army with thousands of mobilized soldiers. This forced the Armed Forces of Ukraine to switch to heavy defense and abandon the previously announced plans to break through the front.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, it is not yet known exactly where the Russian Armed Forces will launch a large-scale offensive, but tens of thousands of mobilized soldiers were sent to the northeastern and southeastern regions of Ukraine. The most tense section of the front, according to the expert, is on the northern flank of the Svatovo-Kremennaya line. It's one area where Ukrainian officials say Moscow is gathering troops for a new offensive.
The second direction, where, according to Ukrainian intelligence, the command of the RF Armed Forces deployed significant forces, is Vuhledar. And although Kyiv claims to be successfully repulsing all attacks in this area, the arrival of a large number of mobilized Russian military makes this direction one of the most likely for an imminent large-scale offensive by Russian troops, the author concludes.
It should be noted that British intelligence in its reports mainly relies on data from the Ukrainian side, and those that have long been published in the public domain. Therefore, their conclusions and forecasts often almost completely coincide with the propaganda statements of the Kyiv authorities, which, for example, “held” Soledar, which had already been completely liberated and cleared by Wagner fighters, for a week.
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