Military Review

The Western press gives forecasts for further actions of the Russian Black Sea Fleet during the NWO

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The Western press gives forecasts for further actions of the Russian Black Sea Fleet during the NWO

There is a lull in the Black Sea theater of the special military operation, but things can still change. And although drawing up detailed forecasts about the course of hostilities is a thankless and pointless task, several possible scenarios for the further development of events in the Black Sea water area can be drawn up.


This is how H. Sutton, a well-known military expert in the West, argues in his article for the Naval News magazine.

He notes that the Russian Black Sea Fleet has now reduced its activity, and its ships rarely leave their main base in Sevastopol. They rarely patrol the Northern Black Sea region. To a large extent, this, Sutton believes, was influenced by the appearance of Western-made coastal anti-ship systems in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the attack by drones on the Sevastopol Bay at the end of October. The latter caused practically no damage, but showed that such equipment is capable of posing a threat to Russian surface ships.

The expert notes that with the onset of winter, hostilities on land are likely to become less intense. At sea, he believes, a cold snap will also slow down the activity of the warring parties.

But it's not just about winter. Sutton believes that the Russian Navy will try to act very carefully so as not to endanger the ships, but certain circumstances may force the Russian Navy to act more decisively.

In particular, according to the author, in the event of further advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction, the Black Sea Fleet can begin to actively provide fire support to its troops, as well as deliver military cargo for them.

Another factor that can force the ships of the Black Sea fleet massively leaving the bay of Sevastopol, according to Sutton, could be a direct threat of shelling the city and port with long-range ground fire weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We are talking about MLRS HIMARS or any other Western-made systems.

In this case, the author suggests, Russian ships could be relocated to other ports. It is unlikely that it will be Novorossiysk, which, he argues, is already heavily loaded. Most likely, we can talk about smaller likely locations in the Crimea or in the Krasnodar Territory.

Sutton suggests that there are many other scenarios. In particular, he does not rule out that the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation may be used in the future for landing troops on the Ukrainian coast.

Author:
Photos used:
Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, https://www.navalnews.com/
42 comments
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  1. Boniface
    Boniface 19 December 2022 19: 16
    -4
    There, in Turkey, the Khokhlyachy corvette was launched (the champagne did not break wassat ) - a couple of our "Varshavyanka" on duty and a torpedo in the barrel! good
    1. Murmur 55
      Murmur 55 19 December 2022 19: 21
      +6
      Boniface hi, why? Look, we have coastal complexes in abundance, let them work out. At the same time and get even.
      1. Boniface
        Boniface 19 December 2022 19: 31
        -1
        well, yes, there is "Bastion" - but they seem to have shot too
        and here they will work out the task of PT-2))) torpedo crew "GKP-BIP-KP BCh-3" - and how beautiful)) and you can "write off" for a Khokhloma mine that swim in the Black Sea
    2. 4ekist
      4ekist 19 December 2022 19: 48
      0
      Boniface: .... in Turkey Khokhlya corvette was launched

      I wonder where they will land it? to Romania, Bulgaria or stay in Turkey? It won't make it to Odessa.
      1. Arisaka
        Arisaka 19 December 2022 19: 52
        +6
        He will go by cabotage along Romania and Bulgaria. And it is necessary to drown it at the transition, so that it goes to the depth.
      2. Boniface
        Boniface 19 December 2022 20: 03
        +2
        I’m talking about that and talking about it - you have to pay the Turks for parking in a foreign port, but Zelya is greedy!
    3. The comment was deleted.
  2. Petrol cutter
    Petrol cutter 19 December 2022 19: 20
    -9
    That's all, through the fact that we don't have an aircraft carrier.
    Ah, it would be! ... Oh, we would turn around ...
    To vigorously...
    The main directions are by no means maritime in this one, as in the previous NWO.
    And the fleet, to my regret, is not a player at all here. But we need to build aircraft carriers! ...
    1. Osmodey
      Osmodey 19 December 2022 19: 32
      +8
      Aircraft carriers are good for war with the Indians - there will be little sense with an enemy who has saturated air defense. IMHO
    2. Eroma
      Eroma 19 December 2022 19: 43
      0
      Port facilities can be destroyed, targets in Odessa and Nikolaev (power plants, factories, warehouses, defensive structures) could be destroyed with naval artillery or anti-ship missiles, there would be a desire, but there are enough classes! request
      At the same time, check how much you write corvettes and stealth frigates! Artillery shelling must be carried out at night, so that only radar can detect soldier
      1. Seamaster
        Seamaster 20 December 2022 23: 36
        +1
        Sorry, uncle, but such attacks did not take place already in 1941 and ended very badly (the shelling of Constanta, for example). The maximum caliber in the Black Sea Fleet is now 100 mm. This is a T-44 tank gun from the 1940s. And the range is a maximum of 20 km.
        And in return you will receive a "harpoon" with 150 kg of hexogen.
        Yes, and 12 "Hymars" is also not a gift.
        Have you heard of Moscow?
        1. stankow
          stankow 21 December 2022 01: 26
          0
          Khaymarsami, that is, MLRS on the ship? Has there ever been such a thing in history?
        2. Eroma
          Eroma 21 December 2022 23: 42
          0
          Anything can happen in a war, especially if someone is counting on a chance! feel
          When the plan is worked out, EVERYONE who is supposed to be familiar with the plan, then the operations usually go through normally!
          As for the Harpoons, this is the concern of air defense and electronic warfare, that is why they are on ships.
    3. 1razvgod
      1razvgod 19 December 2022 19: 47
      +6
      An aircraft carrier for the Black Sea is useless, probably the scale is not the same, everything that naval aviation can do can also be done by land aviation. Aircraft carriers are not a cheap thing, and using and God forbid losing it under such conditions would be a disaster.
      1. Kuzmitsky
        19 December 2022 20: 50
        +14
        There is already an aircraft carrier in the Black Sea, unsinkable. Crimea is called.
        1. antivirus
          antivirus 19 December 2022 21: 03
          -2
          Aircraft carriers are needed to capture Bavaria along the Danube.
          EURLP center - where tanks can't reach without infantry
        2. Petrol cutter
          Petrol cutter 21 December 2022 20: 35
          0
          Crimea is ours today, not ours tomorrow. As the city of Kherson teaches us.
          Or already forgotten...
          So it goes.
    4. Amateur
      Amateur 19 December 2022 20: 01
      +8
      That's all, through the fact that we don't have an aircraft carrier.

      An aircraft carrier in the Black Sea is "finally" Only necessarily with a nuclear power plant. lol
      1. Xnumx vis
        Xnumx vis 19 December 2022 20: 34
        +2
        Quote: Amateur
        That's all, through the fact that we don't have an aircraft carrier.

        An aircraft carrier in the Black Sea is "finally" Only necessarily with a nuclear power plant. lol

        Submarine nuclear aircraft carrier! wassat
        1. Petrol cutter
          Petrol cutter 21 December 2022 20: 30
          0
          Half of VO demanded AB!
          At Kerch, even the UDC began to be built.
          A real war has begun.
          What bolt did your UDC and Aircraft-carrying cruisers surrender to?! ..
          Gentlemen are good...
          When will you really start to look at life, God forgive me.
          1. Xnumx vis
            Xnumx vis 21 December 2022 20: 49
            -1
            Quote: Benzorez
            What bolt did your UDC and Aircraft-carrying cruisers surrender to?! ..
            Gentlemen are good...
            When will you really start to look at life, God forgive me.

            However, divisions will be created from marine brigades ... This is so thought-provoking ... About UDC ... hi
            1. Petrol cutter
              Petrol cutter 21 December 2022 21: 10
              0
              In the light of recent events, I'm afraid all subsequent brigades will be created from the same assemblers of metal ship hulls. Who else is younger than fifty years old.
              Check out my predictions. However. hi
              I'm not complaining. But it all comes down to it.
              1. Xnumx vis
                Xnumx vis 21 December 2022 21: 23
                -1
                Let's wait and see .. Health and tranquility ... But the pestilence division. infantry in Sevastopol is normal. There is someone to serve ... I think they will increase the service life for conscripts, up to two years. This is inevitable .. Our grandfathers shot during checks .. Everything is usually excellent ...
                1. Petrol cutter
                  Petrol cutter 22 December 2022 18: 58
                  +1
                  Welcome.
                  The next season will show.
                  I, here tried to treat the annoying teeth. Treated clumsily to be honest. Well, that's the thing. While on vacation. So that the hour is not even, we are on the NWO, but I have nothing to chew on ...
                  The main thing is to say - do not try to gnaw anything hard! And in general, do not follow comrade ...
                  Good. When would I sit however?
                  Here, either follow, or work to work ...
                  1. Xnumx vis
                    Xnumx vis 22 December 2022 21: 30
                    +1
                    Quote: Benzorez
                    I, here tried to treat the annoying teeth. Treated clumsily to be honest. Well, that's the thing. While on vacation. So that the hour is not even, we are on the NWO, but I have nothing to chew on ...
                    The main thing is to say - do not try to gnaw anything hard! And in general, do not follow comrade ...
                    Good. When would I sit however?
                    Here, either follow, or work to work ...

                    Yes , not comme il faut without teeth ... I did the same .. Hmm . wink ..Teeth for the price of a used car... hi And so don’t bite anyone, don’t smile ...
  3. Leonidych
    Leonidych 19 December 2022 20: 14
    -4
    And it would be nice to work out the ports with empty torpedoes. Just blanks without a warhead and see how they react, how they will defend themselves. Yes, and thin out the minefields.
  4. T.A.V.
    T.A.V. 19 December 2022 20: 36
    +17
    It seems to me that the command of the Black Sea Fleet has failed to the fullest. And it’s most likely not worth waiting for activity, because if you fight, then you can still lose ships, like Moscow. And so they will shy away from the pier with rockets and that's it. And there are reports of combat work and there is less risk.
    1. ananias mudishev
      ananias mudishev 20 December 2022 21: 56
      +3
      And why then the fleet, if for security reasons it cannot go to sea?
      1. Andybuts
        Andybuts 21 December 2022 18: 16
        0
        And why then the fleet, if for security reasons it cannot go to sea?

        admirals and their relatives and friends need to eat something and live for something, the fleet in Russia to cut the budget, it was like that under the tsars, and now
  5. Petr_Koldunov
    Petr_Koldunov 19 December 2022 21: 49
    +7
    The Black Sea Fleet now reminds me personally of the 1st Pacific Squadron during the command of Witgeft ... Into battle? Aha, shaz! From Port Arthur - not a foot! Hide while moving around the ports in order to save the number of ships!
    But then the question arises: WHY???
    By the way, the 1st Pacific squadron (quite naturally) ended its existence ... flooded in the bay! Without leaving Arthur! And if it had fought, then there would have been losses ... but the squadron would not have rested ingloriously at the bottom of the bay, but would have done what it was intended for - it would have fought!
    1. Chronos
      Chronos 19 December 2022 22: 22
      +6
      Quote: Peter_Koldunov
      The Black Sea Fleet now reminds me personally of the 1st Pacific Squadron during the command of Witgeft ... Into battle? Aha, shaz! From Port Arthur - not a foot! Hide while moving around the ports in order to save the number of ships!
      But then the question arises: WHY???
      By the way, the 1st Pacific squadron (quite naturally) ended its existence ... flooded in the bay! Without leaving Arthur! And if it had fought, then there would have been losses ... but the squadron would not have rested ingloriously at the bottom of the bay, but would have done what it was intended for - it would have fought!

      For reference, Vitgeft died during an attempt to break out of Port Arthur. And you can say it has already broken through. But without him, the squadron returned.
    2. Amateur
      Amateur 20 December 2022 07: 03
      +4
      The Black Sea Fleet now reminds me personally of the 1st Pacific Squadron during the command of Witgeft.

      The Black Sea Fleet personally reminds me of the Black Sea Fleet during the command of Admiral Oktyabrsky, when at first he mined himself in Sevastopol, then he lost some of the ships from improperly organized air defense, and then, "out of fear" hid in Poti and Batumi until the Germans were expelled from the Black Sea.
    3. Volunteer Marek
      Volunteer Marek 20 December 2022 22: 11
      +4
      removed from the tongue. 12 points! The fleet must fight. Or no CHF?
  6. thepuppeteer
    thepuppeteer 19 December 2022 23: 26
    +1
    H. Sutton works for Disneyland..
    He is a payed Puppet
  7. Sergey39
    Sergey39 19 December 2022 23: 27
    +2
    Very strange? And why patrol the northern part of the Black Sea? Ukraine does not have a fleet. Vessels carrying grain are inspected in accordance with the grain deal. Crimea, by its location, plays the role of an unsinkable aircraft carrier and it covers the entire water area of ​​the Black Sea. Ships of the Black Sea Fleet are constantly striking the Kyrgyz Republic in Ukraine.
    And why substitute ships for missiles located on the shore is stupid and short-sighted.
    While the databases are going on, the Black Sea straits are closed and the ships cannot be rotated.
    Tartus is a reliable base for the second part of the Black Sea Fleet.
  8. Igor Smirnov
    Igor Smirnov 20 December 2022 00: 45
    +2
    What kind of fleet is it that is afraid to leave the bay?! And this despite the fact that the Ukrainian Navy has, as a maximum, a boat and a new corvette-type ship standing in Turkey? What was being built in the Russian Federation then all these years?
  9. Alexander Toroshchin
    Alexander Toroshchin 20 December 2022 05: 03
    +1
    With a pitchfork on the water, grandmother felts, grandfather felts, loves felts, felts no; crap-predictor, overseas.
  10. Serg65
    Serg65 20 December 2022 08: 26
    +1
    Mr. Kuzmitsky, as I understand it, for the sake of a joke, he dragged some kind of gay specialist onto these pages, and then the cart rushed over the bumps!!!
    As it turned out, we also have a bunch of fleet specialists !!!
  11. AlevVishnevsky
    AlevVishnevsky 20 December 2022 09: 55
    +5
    Kind of deja vu. The analytics are super, like a schoolboy's essay on the topic "How did you spend your summer in Sevastopol."
    Our Russian fleet just crap. It's such a shame that you still piss with boiling water at the thought of telling the TRUTH about the flagship!
    Forgive me, gentlemen, no Ushakovs! Some corrupt nits-generals on merit before the COURT, that is, the nobles.
    The war is not won by these generals, the war is won by the people who have something to fight for. We still have a people who have something to fight for?!
    Here are the generals! Therefore, they will go to any betrayal so that they and his family have it.
  12. AG-76
    AG-76 20 December 2022 14: 38
    0
    As always, performed by Western yksperds - blah blah blah, and maybe something like that. So anyone can guess
  13. azkolt
    azkolt 20 December 2022 18: 35
    -1
    Quote: Boniface
    There, in Turkey, the Khokhlyachy corvette was launched (the champagne did not break wassat ) - a couple of our "Varshavyanka" on duty and a torpedo in the barrel! good

    I have a feeling that here a bot under different nicknames is posting such comments that make me sick for almost 11 months of the war!
  14. Seamaster
    Seamaster 20 December 2022 23: 28
    0
    Already the Patriotic War showed that large-tonnage ships in the Black Sea and the Baltic are only targets for aviation. The very first operation of the Black Sea Fleet (the shelling of Constanta) led to disastrous results. And now the appearance of anti-ship missiles has also been added.
    And fso.
    But the gunboats in their modern form with "Caliber" showed themselves. Add good air defense systems to them - and only forward!
    Py.Sy. By the way, in World War II, almost everywhere the navy was rotten by aviation. There were almost no artillery battles. Well, mines and submarines snatched their rations. This is me again about the SHIPS.
  15. Prokop_Pork
    Prokop_Pork 21 December 2022 12: 27
    0
    Patrol is a pointless exercise. This is a case for satellite and air reconnaissance. The only feasible task for him is to block sea traffic. But they don't give it either.