Beijing concerned about Kazakhstan's ability to fulfill its obligations to supply gas to China

In June of this year, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev instructed his government to reduce gas exports and ensure an additional 2 billion cubic meters of fuel is delivered to consumers inside Kazakhstan.

Ensuring domestic demand for gas has an unconditional priority over exports

- said the President of Kazakhstan at a conference of foreign investors.

Tokayev then said that additional gas intended for domestic consumption should be obtained from the Tengiz field.

Sanjar Zharkeshov, chairman of the gas pipeline operator QazaqGaz, sounded the alarm in connection with the danger of chronic shortages in the coming years in early summer. In a conversation with deputies, he said that if urgent measures are not taken, a serious crisis is looming.

While gas exports are declining in the long term, domestic demand is growing. This is partly due to the transition of large power plants in the country's business capital, Almaty, from coal to gas. The conversion of the Alma-Ata thermal power plant is expected to cut pollutant emissions by 80 percent, Kazakh Minister of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources Serikkali Brekeshev said in August.

According to him, the annual gas deficit in the domestic market by 2024 may be about 1,7 billion cubic meters. Exports could stop completely by 2023, he predicts.

China, which is the other party to the gas contract, was disturbed by the statements of Kazakh representatives.

We hope that Kazakhstan, in accordance with its contract, will ensure stable gas supplies to China and maximize them during the winter months

Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang told his Kazakh counterpart Alikhan Smailov during a video conference.

Li's comments were broadcast on Chinese state television.

Separately, Tokayev and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the creation of a so-called "tripartite gas union" that would also include Uzbekistan. The goal of the union will be to coordinate Russian gas supplies to Central Asia, Tokayev said in a speech during a visit to Moscow.

Uzbekistan, like Kazakhstan, has recently often faced the problem of increasing gas shortages, despite the fact that it is a major producer of raw materials.

If Kazakhstan alone cannot provide the volumes of gas declared under the contract, then the gas union of Moscow, Astana and Tashkent being created is quite capable of doing this - on favorable terms for all participants.

Comments

[iouris]

Huge gas reserves are located in the northern regions of Afghanistan. And they need electricity.

[for]

But what about the Russian Power of Siberia, working at half strength.
Or internal networks will have to expand, not hunting.

[topol717]

Quote: iouris

Huge gas reserves are located in the northern regions of Afghanistan. And they need electricity.

At 1000 light-years from earth, there are huge reserves of lithium.
These 2 statements are true, but absolutely useless.
Even Europe cannot arrange deliveries in the shortest possible time, and even from Afghanistan to China through the mountains, it's just fantastic.

[HattinGokbori88]

If Afghanistan really has that much gas (the US couldn't find much), as long as the Taliban are in power, China will get the contract. The Taliban, like Pakistan, depend on China.

[gsev]

Quote: HattinGokbori88

The Taliban, like Pakistan, depend on China.

Afghanistan buys fuel including liquefied gas from Iran. He doesn't have enough gas. A year ago, a liter of gas there cost about 100 rubles. Russia can cooperate in the modernization of the country's gas industry for domestic needs. I think investments in Afghanistan are more reliable than investments in any other country in the world.

[PavelT]

I think investments in Afghanistan are more reliable than investments in any other country in the world.

- It's just a super-optimistic and naive statement.
This country is just a hole with a hostile to itself (they will fight there, even if there are no neighbors around at all), a deceitful, hypocritical, stupid and arrogant population. With obvious overcrowding. There will be no order there for the foreseeable future, but their usual mess. Instead of calmly admitting this, we have a bunch of inescapable optimists at the top (and at the bottom, judging by your statement) who are ready to invest our money in this black hole! Is the experience of stepping on the Afghan rake of the two superpowers (USSR and the USA) not enough? Is it necessary to step on this rake again and get hit on the forehead?

[gsev]

Quote: PavelT

Is the experience of stepping on the Afghan rake of the two superpowers (USSR and the USA) not enough? Is it necessary to step on this rake again and get hit on the forehead?

Russia, both under Stalin and under Brezhnev, successfully traded with Afghanistan on mutually beneficial terms. Just don't send your troops there. Stalin, for example, understood this faster than all other leaders of empires immediately after Primakov's unsuccessful campaign, and after that he even refrained from supplying weapons on credit to this country for internal showdowns. The country has a rather smart engineering and technical elite. For example, according to Perkins' testimony in his book "Confessions of an Economic Hitman", Afghanistan is the only state that US economists could not plunge into an economic disaster and ruin. In Russia, the management of state holdings like Alrosa and their engineering and technical staff are still confident that the purchase of French Schneider chastotniks at a price 2,5 times higher than their Chinese counterparts will not ruin them even in the face of confrontation with the West and continue to finance the supply of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the purchase of French equipment.

This country is just a hole with a hostile to itself (they will fight there, even if there are no neighbors around at all), a deceitful, hypocritical, stupid and arrogant population.

Doesn't this example with French chastotniks demonstrate the level of idiocy of the Russian elite, including top management, the FSB, customs authorities and business? They allowed only the Chinese after the latter fulfilled the wishes of the Afghans to build, in particular, an enrichment plant in Afghanistan, leaving dumps in that country. A year ago, much was said about the imminent collapse and famine in this country. These predictions did not come true. The country survived its difficult year with less cataclysms than Russia in 1992. So the presidents of Afghanistan, not having nuclear weapons under occupation, were able to fight off enslaving projects. And Putin and Yeltsin, in better conditions, are forced to invest in US bonds, a grain deal, and the supply of fertilizers abroad free of charge.

[PavelT]

Russia, both under Stalin and under Brezhnev, successfully traded with Afghanistan on mutually beneficial terms. Just don't send your troops there.

I am not against trading. There are only two questions:
1. How will we trade with them? What do they have there valuable, necessary for us?
2. How exactly are we going to count these "mutually beneficial terms"? The question is cardinal, because under the USSR they loved to support all sorts of poor peoples, "anti-colonial" forces, "progressive" (certainly not about Afghanistan!) Countries ... and hid that trade with such countries was obviously unprofitable for the USSR. I know this first hand, because my aunt worked at the State Planning Commission, was engaged in export / import with socialist countries, and I forever filled her indignation (already in the 90s!) About how they were forced to write off the huge debts of the DPRK and hide them in statistics . The fact is that these hypocritical narrow-eyed cunning people specially signed up for inflated deliveries of their export goods to the USSR (for example, molybdenum) and their application for export was included in the general plan of the USSR: i.e. if they undertook to extract and deliver 1979 thousand tons of molybdenum in 10, then these 10 thousand tons from the DPRK were included in the general plan of the USSR for 1979 as ALREADY PRODUCED, and our miners' plan was REDUCED by these 10 thousand tons. Then the USSR paid in advance (in currency or goods) for molybdenum, and these cunning people calmly supplied 2-3 thousand tons and simply blinked when they were yelled at from the State Planning Commission in December "Where are the other 7-8 thousand tons?" It was necessary to abruptly arrange a rush in the USSR for the extraction (or even purchase from outside) of molybdenum, our miners tore and threw. Money / goods from the North Koreans was never taken away - it was such a form of covert subsidized support for freeloading idiots parasitizing on communism. The State Planning Commission constantly demanded from the DPRK to give REALISTIC volumes of their exports to the USSR, these cunning smiled, nodded and AGAIN brazenly threw the entire USSR. Year after year. All the requirements of the State Planning Commission to stop paying them, or at least include in the annual plan of the USSR the underestimated REAL volumes of imports from the DPRK to us, but the Central Committee regularly severely reprimanded the state planners, saying that politics and support for the fraternal, communist people is more important than the economy! It was similar inside the USSR with arrogant postscripts of cotton by Uzbekistan. Also not punished - it was forbidden.
Wouldn't it be the same with Afghanistan?
It may very well be. They are poor, they must be forgiven - this is humane and tolerant!

The country has a rather smart engineering and technical elite.

Yah? And what are they engineering there? We well saw how this "elite" of theirs tried to fly away with the Americans from Kabul, grabbing planes from the outside ... Stunned what kind of education and logic - did they think that they could fly to the USA? Even a dunk wouldn't do that...

Afghanistan is the only state that US economists have not been able to plunge into an economic disaster and ruin.

Not the only one!
Ha! Yes, there has always been and will be either an economic catastrophe or parasitism on donors (USSR, Arabs, USA). It is impossible to make a catastrophe there - for it is already there permanently. They are constantly ruined (like Tajikistan). American economists may be good, but they are geared towards civilized countries and normal markets. Such economists, by definition, cannot break the primitive near-natural Afghan "economy" with elements of the drug market. Because they don't know how it works. And they do not set such goals for themselves - this is nonsense. Kill the Afghans, destroy all their opium crops, isolate them, these are still goals here and there, but this is for the army. And to break the economy of the Afghans is generally nonsense like painting the moon red. No one knows how and most importantly WHY? American economists don't know how this Afghan economy works and they don't care. American financiers do not know how hawala works, they do not have such knowledge and skills. This is much more serious than the Afghan economy. This is necessary and useful, but the Afghan economy is simply about nothing. Something very small.

Also, neither American nor our economists will be able to break the economy of the Papuans in the jungle, or the economy of the Eskimos in the tundra, or the economy of the Evenks in the taiga. This is not broken from New York by exchange, sanctions and financial measures.

As you know, the Afghans did not allow either the United States or the USSR to exploit a large copper deposit on onerous terms. They allowed only the Chinese after the latter fulfilled the wishes of the Afghans to build, in particular, an enrichment plant in Afghanistan, leaving dumps in that country.

Yeah, the Chinese were also sold a huge lithium deposit (which was found by our Soviet geologists, and the cunning Afghans were silent about it until the Russian Federation forgave them all their debts!). And now the main question: well, how much copper and lithium is China now mining in Afghanistan? How much does it pay? How is it exported? Without these answers, the whole discussion is about nothing - just about papers signed by someone for some reason.

A year ago, much was said about the imminent collapse and famine in this country. These predictions did not come true.

- just begged for money from rich Arabs. They helped fellow believers. They got millions of parasites around their necks. Do you present this as the success of Afghanistan? Well, yes, compared to hunger, this is a success. For the last 40 years, Afghanistan has had such "successes" every year. And in Somalia, and in many others ... You wish us such "successes" - no thanks!

the presidents of Afghanistan, not having nuclear weapons in the conditions of occupation, were able to fight off enslaving projects.

No one in their right mind is going to start any projects, not only enslaving ones, in Afghanistan. The very disorder in the country and endless violence, partisanism protects Afghanistan from occupation better than the army - the occupier loses more there than he gains!
In the same way, no one captures cannibal Papuans in Papua New Guinea, even Indonesia, which owns part of this island, does not climb into the jungle with an army - this is useless: the loss is more profitable. There is no special merit of the Papuan patriots here - it is simply unprofitable.

And Putin and Yeltsin, in better conditions, are forced to invest in US bonds, a grain deal, and the supply of fertilizers abroad free of charge.

- here I absolutely agree with you. I believe that our country and people will suffer from this for a long time even after the NWO. In general, I take an even more extreme position here than anyone else: I believe that Russia (with China and India) needs to actively, brazenly and aggressively break the UN and other globalist structures, create its own alternative ones. I seem to be the first publicist in the Russian Federation who published a series of 5 articles against the UN. It's a miracle that they published it. The rest of the publicists are afraid of this, the UN is our beacon, beacon and other ideal something.

[tralflot1832]

Kazakhstan cannot fulfill contractual obligations with China for 10 billion gas per year.

[topol717]

Quote: tralflot1832

And we can't help. Or what I didn't find.

There is Turkmenistan, which produces a lot of gas, but there are problems in pipelines. and if oil can be transported by rail, then this trick will not work with gas.

[tralflot1832]

Turkmenistan already pumps 40 billion a year to the PRC and something is there with the contract, it is not very profitable for Turkmenistan !?

[Alex777]

The more China depends on our supplies, the more negotiable it will be.
The same applies to our neighbors, among which KZ and UZ are the most important for us.
In all cases, we have something to help. Thank you sanctions.

[tralflot1832]

I looked at the intermediate landing airfield of our "bears" in the PRC, since this is the middle of coastal China. The United States will not comment on this, it is unprofitable for them. The PRC is very dependent on sea supplies of everything. This is its weak link. The PRC God himself ordered to strengthen and develop relations with us. By the way, it was snowing on takeoff, but I thought it was always warm there. Heating means it has been on for a long time.

[Alex777]

Quote: tralflot1832

God himself commanded China to strengthen and develop relations with us.

So it is, but not so long ago I came across an interesting article about the Chinese mentality:
1. When the British ambassador first came to China to establish diplomatic relations, he was asked - did he bring tribute? When the ambassador was surprised, they explained to him that the Chinese emperor is the main one on Earth and everyone should pay tribute to him.
2. When Mao arrived at the IVS, he (allegedly) asked - did he bring tribute? And (supposedly) Mao understood everything.
"The tale is a lie, but there is a hint in it ...". Little has changed in Chinese culture.
Therefore, our negotiating positions should be maximum.

Even such a "sleek" version of events says a lot:
https://park-patriot.com/tpost/rbekezsh91-vstrecha-iv-stalina-i-mao-tszeduna

[tralflot1832]

A very interesting article, thank you. The negotiations are exciting in their intrigue. Both showed aerobatics in lagging behind their interests. You have to be very careful with the PRC, you need to understand to the end what they want. 1,4 billion must be well fed. The West can easily apply what it has done to us to the PRC, but more with catastrophic consequences for the PRC.

[rusich]

The Kazakhs want a lot, but there are no specialists. This is not to graze sheep in the steppe, but to extract gas. Russian specialists left en masse

[Most polite]

Gasification of Kazakhstan is slightly less than 60%, especially sad in the north and east. I don’t know how it will be with the Chinese, but in recent years our gas consumption has almost halved and the pace of gasification will only increase. I know that Gazprom has expressed interest in deliveries to the border areas, but the contract has not yet been concluded, so far everything is in words.

[lubesky]

Quote: Most polite

Gasification of Kazakhstan is slightly less than 60%, especially sad in the north and east. I don’t know how it will be with the Chinese, but in recent years our gas consumption has almost halved and the pace of gasification will only increase. I know that Gazprom has expressed interest in deliveries to the border areas, but the contract has not yet been concluded, so far everything is in words.

Great, just because of the "high" average income, there is a massive migration of the urban population to the disenfranchised status of SNT throughout the country due to the cheaper threshold of entry into property. But Gazprom does not consider the population of SNT (where even the mother's capital is issued by the local authorities) to be citizens, so gasification is not expected there

[Egor53]

The population of Kazakhstan is 20 million people, and gas production is 30 billion cubic meters per year. Russia, as the most gasified country in Europe, consumes 3 billion cubic meters of gas per 1 million people per year. Anyone who knows how to work with numbers understands that there can be no decent gas supplies from Kazakhstan to China.

[ZnaxarJorge]

I searched, the numbers in different sources are similar to these:
https://energystats.enerdata.net/natural-gas/gas-consumption-data.html

Kazakhstan produces 54 billion cubic meters a year, and consumes 22 billion. This means that it can sell 32 billion, which would be one tenth of China's consumption, where the consumption is 365 billion a year. Not so little.

[Azat15]

gas in general, dofiga everywhere. The United States has clearly demonstrated this by extracting gas from 80% of its territory.
But not everyone has the opportunity to break a trillion bucks into exploration and drilling.