At six o'clock in the evening after the war
Almost every day I hear questions about how long this marking time will continue. How much more will we talk about the battles in Artemovsk, the landings of Ukrainian DRGs on the left bank of the Dnieper in the south, about preparing for the defense of the mouth of the Dnieper, and so on.
Indeed, the war ceased to be mobile and regained its positional character. Both sides are trying to do something in separate areas, but in general the front is stable, and neither side is making any attempts to intensify its actions.
DRG, platoon, maximum company. These are the forces that are active. What is happening looks more like attempts at reconnaissance in battle than a real offensive. And what I wrote about above, rather refers to the end of October - the beginning of November. Today the front is standing!
Most of those who try to explain this pause on both sides talk about the difficulties associated with the weather. Indeed, it is difficult to advance in such conditions. Even equipment periodically gets stuck in the mud that Ukrainian black soil has turned into. I would say more. Theater of operations today is unsuitable for combat operations.
Why is a pause necessary?
This question was answered by everyone who has the opportunity to speak. They answered quite logically. Kyiv needs to rearm. The losses are huge. Therefore, the supply of weapons should be increased. But that doesn't happen. In one of the materials I already wrote about why.
NATO arsenals are not a bottomless barrel. And the industry of Western countries in a crisis simply does not have the ability to quickly replenish them. There is not only gas and electricity, but also many other resources. And the restructuring of industry on a war footing is not planned. The governments are very much afraid of the protests of their peoples against the war.
Things are much more interesting with us. It was not in vain that I wrote about General Armageddon as an extraordinary military leader. Today it is already clear even to skeptics that General Surovikin is not a politician, but a military man to the marrow of his bones. And he perceives the war precisely as a war, and not as a continuation of politics. Have you noticed that he does not make political statements?
The Russian army today is also accumulating forces for the offensive. An offensive that will begin not in the spring, but in the winter. As far as I understand, the rate is made for this period. Winter, I think, will be climatically cold, but militarily very hot.
Why are we destroying Ukraine's energy structure? Why did this process become more active in autumn?
Good questions. And the Ukrainians will not like the answers very much. After all, none of them blame their government and the president for this. The Russians are to blame.
I spoke with the inhabitants of this former country. None of them connects the shelling with the actions of Ukrainian DRGs. Crimean bridge? So what? This is a military operation. Executions of pro-Russian citizens and prisoners? They think - right, we need to kill all of us. Here is such a position.
One can, of course, assume that there are also sensible people who are afraid to speak. Probably they are. But what does it change? Silence is a sign of consent, as they said in my childhood. A sign of consent to war to the last Ukrainian.
Let me digress a little, we are already being accused of being Antichrists! Those who renounce their faith are blamed. We are depriving Ukrainians of Christmas, New Year and other holidays. And the fact that the SBU is actively working against the Orthodox Church, conducting searches in the Lavra, arresting priests, the Ukrainians "do not know." This is Moscow propaganda.
So, we are destroying infrastructure not in response to, but according to military decisions. Let me remind you that in Soviet times, Ukraine had the most developed and secure energy grid and the most developed railway system. Not a single republic came close in this respect.
This is the answer to those who cannot understand why objects are restored so quickly. They do not restore, but change routes. This possibility was laid down by the USSR. But this potential is not unlimited. The same "accumulative effect". Various ways of supplying energy and rail links are affected.
It is no secret that the supply of Western weapons and ammunition greatly complicates the life of our military. So the thaw time is used to limit these deliveries. Already today it is clear how the number of attacks has decreased. The enemy no longer pours shells "into the white light like a pretty penny."
How and where the offensive will be planned, I do not know. There are only assumptions. Yes, it doesn't matter. The important thing is that we will no longer play war. How many times have I heard the phrase that "we have not started yet." Who just did not repeat it. Nine months of war, which we "have not started yet." Isn't there a lot of patience?
We again want to end the war in the spring
So when will the SVO end?
Naturally, no one can give a clear answer to this question. You can try to analyze the situation for today, you can predict the development of events for tomorrow. But it is impossible to take into account all the risks, simply because the enemy monitors the situation in the same way and reacts to its changes as necessary.
However, we can still choose the most probable scenario for the development of events. I remembered the old Soviet film "At six o'clock in the evening after the war", which was filmed in 1944. Those who watched this film, after many decades, did not even think about when it was made. It was the end of the war that was filmed so realistically for that time.
Analyzing all the known facts and opinions of military, economic and political experts, I came to the conclusion that we still have the tradition of ending wars in the spring. And we will finish this war traditionally. But not in May, but earlier. It is likely that even the anniversary of the NWO will not have to be celebrated.
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