Without unnecessary alarmism: a possible raid of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Belgorod
Thin red lines
The exit of Ukrainian forces to the borders of Russia can be considered one of the most tragic episodes of the special operation. The nationalists believed in their own strength and made sure that they were able to "beat the Russians." And the civilian population of Russia in the border areas suddenly found itself on the front line in the truest sense of the word.
Chronicle of the last days.
The enemy artillery shelled the village of Ustinka, fortunately, there were no casualties. Earlier, a passenger car was blown up by ammunition - two people were killed. The hospital "Veterans of Wars" came under fire - an old woman died of wounds. This can go on indefinitely. No one will be able to forbid nationalists to walk around the very border with mortars, and sometimes much more heavy equipment. Put here at least twenty "Zoos" with "Penicillins" per square kilometer, they will not track the harassing fire of terrorists from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The only solution to the problem will be the return of the Russian army to its previous positions in the Kharkov region, but this will not be enough - long-range, although more expensive HIMARS systems, will cope with the increased distance. Therefore, either take Kharkov, or ...
So far, the Russian leadership has chosen the option of strategic defense. A notch line and other anti-tank barriers are being dug along the entire border and in the depths of the region. That is, the army is seriously preparing for a possible attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Belgorod. For example, along the E105 highway connecting the capital of the region with Kharkov. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) commented in a very peculiar way on rumors about a possible nationalist offensive on Belgorod.
The key idea is that the Kremlin is dispersing this newsbreak in order to justify a second return to the north of the Kharkiv region. Americans reassure:
"Ukraine has no strategic interest in invading Russia and cannot do it on such a scale."
ISW has been famous for its "unbiased" conclusions before, but here they have outdone themselves. Not a single sane Russian now needs any reason to justify the pushing of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the borders of the Belgorod region.
Why should the Russian leadership spin a fake, waste resources on anti-tank ditches, if the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is impossible? Moreover, to instill fear in the locals. Apparently, ISW finds a certain logic in this.
Fermentation in Kharkiv region
In the second half of November, Ukrainian forces definitely revived in the Kharkiv region. According to war correspondents and local residents, the nationalists are occupying hospitals and schools, bringing up manpower and equipment. On November 23, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced missile attacks on the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were transferred by rail to the line of contact. Apparently, some of this was intended for the Kharkov region.
Does the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the opportunity and, most importantly, the desire to break through to the Belgorod region now? However, why only in Belgorodskaya? Bryansk is in no less danger.
From the point of view of strategic planning, this step for the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be reckless. Here we can agree with ISW - Zelensky and Zaluzhny will not receive a big advantage from the invasion of the territory of Russia. Hypothetically, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can occupy a couple of settlements, for example, in the Shebekinsky district, but at the cost of heavy losses. The Russian army gets a long-awaited chance to unwind the enemy forces on stretched lines of communication and noticeably thin out both the personnel of Bandera and military equipment.
By the way, about military equipment.
Accurate loss data tanks, the main player in the ground offensive, is not on the Ukrainian side, but there are OSINT intelligence officers from the United States. So, only according to photo and video evidence, they counted at least 370 tanks lost by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Only imported T-72Ms were destroyed and 35 pieces were captured. There is nothing to close these needs - the West does not provide tanks. Therefore, for the offensive, Kyiv will have to thoroughly scrape the bottom of the barrel.
Another thing is if the preparations for an attack on Belgorod are planned by the Kyiv regime as a distraction operation. The true direction may be the Kupyanskoe, which the nationalists have recently attacked more and more often.
Paying attention to the opinion of ISW is not worth it - this office works in close cooperation with Kyiv and its foreign curators. On the contrary, the soothing tone of analysts speaks of the calm before the storm. The only question is in which direction this storm will strike.
Among the versions of further events is a temporary ban on the American side to invade Russia. The United States considers this event as a possible trigger for a serious complication of the situation at the front. For wavering Russians, the appearance of Bandera's scum in Russia will become a button for accepting the true realities and goals of the special operation. As the Americans say, the citizens of Russia will finally rally around the flag.
The escalation of the conflict will hasten its end - in one way or another. And this is not in the interests of Washington, which from the very beginning of the special operation is doing everything to delay it. The West does not benefit from either a quick victory for Kyiv or a quick end to the conflict on the Kremlin's terms. The Americans see this as a long-awaited depletion of Russian resources and the destruction of statehood.
Source: molva33.ru
But who said that the Kyiv regime is guided only by strategic expediency. And with them, and import curators. Everyone remembers how propagandists dispersed history with the "Belgorod People's Republic", which will become part of Ukraine after the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. How accidental and not very crossings of the state border of Russia are documented. Belgorod has long been a real symbol of revenge for neo-Nazis in Ukraine. And this is important now to maintain the fighting spirit of Bandera.
Or, for example, the announcement of a new wave of mobilization. Say, if we already went beyond the borders on February 24, what will happen next. It is precisely for political reasons that Kyiv can justify the hypothetical “Belgorod raid”, not only to its supporters, but also to its curators. If internal motives outweigh external ones, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will strike. Just not anytime soon.
For the next couple of weeks, during daylight hours, the border area will remain difficult to pass, both for vehicles and for infantry. With the establishment of round-the-clock sub-zero temperatures, the ground will harden, and with it, anti-tank fortifications on the border will become less dangerous.
The situation when you have to guess whether the enemy will attack or not is bad. The initiative in the Kharkiv region is on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they can afford to carry out special information operations, express their intentions, or, conversely, act in “operational silence”. Send terrorists to shell Russian civilian villages and call it friendly fire.
The solution to the crisis is simple to the point of banality - the enemy needs to impose his will, so that the nationalists can already guess which side they will get.
Until this happens, alarmist sentiments will prevail, and they will intensify with the onset of real cold weather in the Bryansk region.
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