Everyone has already discussed enough news with the fact that a Ukrainian (there could not have been another) rocket hit the tractor and carried away two citizens of Poland to the next world. I am sure that the loss of these people by mankind can be regretted, since they were really working people who plowed in the field in the truest sense of the word.
The question arises: why or "for" if in Polish.
We will not comment on all the nonsense that a huge crowd of "experts" expresses, but we will look at the situation ourselves. Fortunately, we still have plenty of unclouded brains.
1. Whose rocket flew to Poland
There is no second opinion here, the rocket could only be Ukrainian.
It is enough just to look at the map, it immediately becomes clear that the S-300 air defense missile system simply could not physically fly from the Russian (and by the way, from the Belarusian too) territory.
Why? Because it was a rocket like 5V55R, 5V55RM, 5V55S. And the flight range of these missiles does not exceed 90 km at best. In the worst, standard - 50 km.
Again the question "Why"?
And because the air defense system of Ukraine is armed with S-300 complexes of not the latest modifications.
More precisely, the most recent is the S-300PMU, which comes from the mid-80s of the last century and is a very minor upgrade of the S-300PS. There are in service with the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and S-300PS, and S-300PT and even S-300V1. But now we are not talking about the military model S-300.
So, we do not have the newest S-300 systems and, accordingly, not the newest missiles for them.
Now optimists can safely say that yes, the S-300PS and PT are already completely archaic, but the S-300PMU - there are quite decent missiles like 48N6, 48N6E2, 9M96E1, 9M96E2.
Yes, in theory, everything is so. But the idea had to be supported by what? That's right, money. And with this type of weaponry, the Ukrainians have always been not very good. I agree that the missiles of the new (compared to 5V55) generation are at the disposal of Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners could be theoretically, if you close your eyes to the fact that by the time the same 48N6E2 appeared, Russia and Ukraine, to put it mildly, were no longer friends. As for the probability of finding it in practice, then yes, before the start of the SVO, it is quite possible.
But after eight months of warfare - I'm sorry, I won't believe it.
2. What rocket flew?
So, we came to the conclusion that normal missiles for the S-300 air defense system could well have seemed to be in service with the air defense of Ukraine. In theory. And as of February 24.02.2022, XNUMX.
Then everything is like with a credit card: the expense went to the full program. And for eight months, all the S-300s of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that remained in working condition were regularly launching missiles towards Russian flying objects, from UAVs to aircraft.
It is worth remembering here that despite the production of various components and components for rocket technology, there were no enterprises in Ukraine capable of mastering and starting production of missiles for the S-300. And it was not worth waiting for help from the Fakel ICD named after Academician P. D. Grushin.
And it turns out very elementary so everything: the war began. Airplanes, cruise missiles and even motorized unguided bawdy with explosives on board are flying at you, flying slowly but inevitably.
What will you do? Naturally, to engage in saving their infrastructure and reducing the capabilities of the enemy by destroying his equipment. That is, to launch rockets.
And everything will go more or less decently, planes will fall, cruise missiles will not reach their targets, and so on. But over time, the supply of missiles will begin to decline rapidly. The war has been going on for eight months, and there are practically no more missiles. Yes, the allies planted something from their bins, but in general the situation is becoming complicated. You need to shoot, but there is nothing.
What will you do then? That's right, what everyone does in such a situation. The Russian military climbed into long-term storage warehouses and began to rake in wild quantities Tanks T-62, and the Ukrainians began to clean their storage from missiles for the S-300 and Buk.
Quite a normal practice: when the S-300PMU came instead of the S-300PT, the zealous Ukrainians (like all normal people) did not cut the missiles, but put them in warehouses. Just in case.
And this case has come. Everything that was relatively modern has already ended, and stash has been used.
It is very doubtful that the Ukrainians kept something like 48H6E in those same stash, these were most likely in the launcher at the time the hostilities began. And in the warehouses, the 9V55 already mentioned above with different letters at the end were waiting in the wings. Made in the 70-80s of the last century from the S-300 of the first series that came to Ukraine back in the days of the USSR.
So many have confidence that the Ukrainians launched just such a rocket. From the former. This is very logical, by the way - to cover the rear areas with not the best weapons. Cover up on the residual principle and just in case.
3. Why did the rocket fly towards the Poles?
Here everything is simple and guesswork is the least. Since the 70s of the last century, not very positive properties were found in 9V55 missiles: in flight there were cases of redirecting missiles to other objects. It happened at training practical shooting, so it did not bring any damage. But the missiles had such a minus.
Naturally, the work was carried out, the equipment was improved, and by our time, everyone forgot about such a problem because of its complete eradication.
However, why should rockets fired 50 years ago forget about it?
Generally in this stories there are several unknowns. We are completely unaware of the conditions under which the Ukrainians stored the missiles. We do not know what work was carried out in terms of maintaining the operability of missiles and, in particular, control systems. It can be concluded that the storage and maintenance of all parts and mechanisms were not up to par.
And this is also completely logical. It's like demanding high-quality repair of T-64 tanks from the plant in Nizhny Tagil.
Since there is no reliable information about which complex was launched and which rocket went into the sky, it is worth really dwelling on the failure of the guidance system due to the long period from the moment the rocket was launched.
Let's look at old rockets.
The first models of the 5V55 family were aimed at the target by the radio command method on command from the illumination / guidance radar. It was, let's say, the first generation of missiles for the S-300.
The second generation are missiles with semi-active guidance, when the target was illuminated by some kind of external radar, not necessarily from the air defense system.
The third generation, this is just 48N6E, used both the radio command method and the semi-active one. Two in one guidance system.
Further, already in the nineties, missiles with command-inertial and semi-active homing went, and as a result, the last word - missiles with active homing of the 9M96 family.
And here is our situation: a missile that simply cannot find a target without the help of a guidance radar flies to where it is led exactly by commands from the guidance post, which in turn works according to the radar data. And all this splendor works on an air target. Which, as we all understand, moves OVER the surface of the earth at a certain height.
Suddenly, the rocket, obeying commands that are not entirely clear, turns about 90 degrees vertically and seems to find another target for itself. On the ground, definitely out of radar coverage. Well, simply because the radar of the air defense system, or the air defense system itself, does not need to see ground targets at all.
A logical question arises: what can make a missile lose a target that was (and it was) captured by the radar and fly, to put it mildly, in the other direction?
After all, if you carefully look at the map again, you can conclude that the ill-fated rocket was flying from the southeast to the northwest (approximately, but logically), while the Russian missiles were flying ... in exactly the same direction!
Two options. The first one was that the rocket flew in a catch-up course, but lost its target and flew to Poland. The second - the missile was fired towards the target, but turned around and flew to Poland.
In any of the options, the conclusion suggests itself that a complete mess reigned in the head of the rocket (sorry, in the homing head). And the fact that the rocket was aimed (if it was aimed) at the tractor, and many consider this a tragic coincidence, only confirms this.
Polish farmers have been brutally unlucky. The old and thoroughly shattered Ukrainian rocket, which had lain without proper maintenance for more than a dozen years, simply got out of control and flew somewhere. And she flew to the outskirts of the village of Pshevoduv, where she shook everyone with her two explosions.
4. How many rockets were there?
One. Many officials are already talking about this, but the fact is that there was only one missile. And there were two explosions. And this is normal, this is how Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners ruin their houses, trying to shoot down Russian missiles over cities.
To understand where it exploded the second time, you need to know how the rocket mechanism works. And everything is simple there: start, the rocket flies towards the target, as soon as the rocket approaches the target, the warhead detonation system is triggered and the warhead explodes, sending a charge of either metal balls or rods towards the target.
This is the first explosion that usually occurs in the sky.
The second explosion usually occurs on the ground, where the rocket body with control systems and (most importantly) main engine and fuel supply falls. All the destruction that we saw in Ukrainian cities “from Russian S-300s” is actually the result of an explosion of a main engine and fuel residues. And the less the rocket flew before the warhead was activated, the stronger the explosion would be. Physics and chemistry of pure water.
The Poles, apparently, had a "two in one". And the engine jerked, and the warhead. Apparently, all control of the rocket was turned off, even self-destruction did not work, although in general the Ukrainian operators were supposed to detonate the rocket remotely as soon as they saw that it went to the neighbors. But apparently the rocket "didn't wake up" or was offended by something. And here is the sad result.
5. And what about the Poles with air defense?
Yes, great question. They also claim to be the best army in Europe, they are undergoing modernization, how did it happen that such a hefty contraption as a rocket from the S-300 (7 meters long and 0,5 meters in diameter), which should have been on the radar screens passed unnoticed?
Maybe Przevoduv is located in such an insignificant area that it’s not worth keeping air defense troops there, because there is no one to protect and no one from?
And here it is not. Przewoduv from the Lublin Voivodeship is a border village, but about 20 km from the border. But the most piquant thing in history is that there is just someone to protect!
In Labun, just 40 km from Pszewodow, there is a stationary RAT-31DL standby radar of the Polish army.
The radar is not old, decommissioned, it was brought from Italy only 10 years ago, it has an active phased antenna array with a width of 11 and a height of 7 meters. The RAT-31DL is capable of detecting aerial targets at a maximum distance of up to 500 km and at an altitude of up to 30 km, depending on the RCS of the target.
That is, the radar operators could NOT NOT see the missile. The RAT-0,3DL sees a target with an EPR of 31 m² at a distance of 200 km ... The question is, right?
But maybe there was nothing to counteract?
And again, no! In March of this year, urgently, the US military deployed two batteries of the MIM-130 Patriot air defense system at the Rzeszow-Jasyonka airport, just 104 km from Pszewoduv, and, in full force, along with their radars that monitor the air situation on border of western Ukraine. Behind the former Polish land, so to speak ...
It's interesting how it turns out: there was something to see, there was something to track, there was something to liquidate. According to the assurances of the Americans and their allies, such a target as a missile from the S-300 "Patriot" at once.
Here, apparently, the matter is not only in the rocket. It's about the Polish military, who were frankly engaged in something more important than monitoring the airspace of a neighboring country waging war.
I will allow myself to express one version on the topic of what prevented the Poles from working out options for intercepting a Ukrainian missile.
The variant is called "The Spirit of the Forest". It is also called by the words "ksenzhitsuvka" and "bimber". There may have been other reasons, but mine is quite a vital one. This is the only way to risk explaining why completely modern equipment turned out to be powerless against the old Soviet missile struck by insanity.
Human factor, is that what they call it?
The human factor (Ukrainian) took out a frankly old rocket and used it for its intended purpose, without being convinced of its full performance. By utter poverty. The human factor (Polish) did not see the rocket on the screens of modern radars, the human factor (Polish) could not eliminate the threat with the help of Patriot missiles.
Okay, who doesn't?
That's just real, but where does Russia?