Thermal power plants instead of bridges: how Ukraine will winter
Source: mtdata.ru
Energy instead of logistics
Probably only the laziest did not speak about the need to destroy bridges across the Dnieper. The idea actually looks good - to divide Ukraine into two parts by an irresistible water artery. This should have slowed down, and perhaps even blocked the transfer of NATO aid to the West. Only now they forget two things that, fortunately, they remember and understand in the Russian General Staff. First, the Bandera bridges can only be bombed with heavy, preferably concrete-piercing, bombs.
Antonovsky and Crimean bridges became infamous and demonstrative. The first nationalists have been ironing HIMARS all summer, and it still has not lost its final structural integrity. Although, of course, it is waiting for a major overhaul and is currently impassable. The second example - two spans of the Crimean bridge, which was blown up by Kyiv terrorists, required several hundred kilograms of explosives, if not tons.
The carrying capacity of the tractor that exploded on the bridge is about twenty tons. Therefore, each bridge on the Dnieper will require several dozen bombs even with jewelry bombing. Unless, of course, we are talking about the total collapse of the spans, so that it takes months to restore. But there is one snag here - the air defense of Ukraine, which has not yet been suppressed. They work so-so against cruise missiles, which clearly illustrates recent events, but they will be much more successful at hitting large and well-marked Su and Tu aircraft.
Are we ready to kill half, or even more, of the VKS grouping in the region for the sake of the bridge economy? The answer, I think, is obvious. Therefore, it is possible to destroy each single bridge only with dozens of high-precision Calibers and Iskanders.
In total, the elimination of the Dnieper bridges will require several hundred expensive missiles. Not the best deal, I must say.
The second factor that the adherents of the total destruction of bridges forget about is the engineering troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The military, with the help of NATO sponsors, will establish logistics through the Dnieper in a couple of weeks, if not days. First, on pontoons and floating crossings, and then a railway line will be transferred where space allows.
Based on the combination of the factors described above, the most correct solution in the current situation was the destruction, albeit partial, of Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Except, of course, the physical elimination of the Kyiv regime. In the meantime, as part of retaliation for the Crimean bridge and other terrorist attacks, the Ukrainian generation of heat and electricity has come under attack.
As a result, partial power outages were reported in almost all regions of Ukraine. On October 10–11, at least 10 percent of heat generation facilities and XNUMX percent of electricity generation facilities were hit. For example, four substations were destroyed in Lvov, the repair of which will take several months. That is, by the winter in the city there will be power outages. To some over-the-top humanist, this may seem inhuman. It suffices to recall here that before October XNUMX, Ukraine managed to trade electricity with Europe.
This is taking into account the loss of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, which annually produced up to 37 billion kilowatt-hours. An excess of electricity was formed for a reason - since the beginning of the special operation, up to 4,2 million civilians have gone to Europe. In addition, enterprises stopped, which resulted in a decrease in consumption by 30 percent. That is, according to the most rough estimates, Russian missiles did not even partially knock out the excess electricity generation, which was formed at the beginning of October.
There is no question of any beating of civilians in this case - Russia simply knocked out a source of income from Zelensky's hands. Until the end of the year, the President of Ukraine was counting on an additional 10-15 billion hryvnias - in Europe, now there are very tasty prices for kilowatts. Now the sale of electricity from Ukraine has stopped - at least until the thermal power plant and thermal power plant are repaired. The surviving critically important energy centers also speak in favor of the jewelry work of the Russian army.
They hit substations with a voltage of 330 kW, which is unpleasant, but not fatal. The cascade of Dnieper hydroelectric power stations and substations in the west of Ukraine for 750 kW remained intact. So far, individual switchgears of nuclear power plants - Rivne, Khmelnitsky and Yuzhnourkrainsk - have not been touched by missiles. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, for example, did not regret similar facilities of the Zaporizhzhya NPP in the summer.
In general, despite the effectiveness of missile strikes, there is no question of any tragedy for the civilian population. At least for now.
Winter is coming soon
The October strikes against Ukraine are more of a warning than an instrument of total chaos. The energy system of the enemy has been shaken, but for some regions it will be enough just to increase the generation of electricity at nuclear power plants. The unified energy network has been preserved for the time being, which will make it possible to quickly transfer electricity from one direction to another.
The Kyiv regime was given to understand that intractability and terrorist attacks would have to be paid. If strikes of such efficiency continue, then the energy system will turn into separate islands on the map, and then completely melt. And this is all on the eve of the most difficult in the newest stories Ukrainian winter.
Source: youtube.com
Zelensky was counting on the extra electricity he sold to the West. Millions of euros were to be used to purchase fuel and repair work. Now the contracts will have to be torn up, and there are much more repairs. Even before the Crimean bridge was blown up, he said to his "hulks":
"We won't have enough electricity to heat our homes, and that time is coming."
Well, Zelensky has accelerated the arrival of winter a little more by sending several tons of explosives to the Crimea. You were warned, by God. Now, when the energy grid of Ukraine is stretched like a string, the Kyiv regime simply has no capacity reserves.
How much colder will it get in the houses if Zelensky and his pack decide to test the Kremlin again? As always, in the best traditions of the terrorist community.
There is also natural gas. However, its value is becoming more and more ephemeral. It is possible to buy gas for two or three winters in advance, but with fire torches broken at the thermal power plant, it is only possible to bring global warming closer. Ukraine, with serviceable thermal power plants, needed up to 19 billion cubic meters of blue fuel for the winter.
So far, only 14 billion have been collected. The Kyiv regime does not intend to save money for the most loyal residents of the west of the country and the capital. Barely warm batteries will be in the east and south of Ukraine. This will inevitably lead to winter migration of the remaining population to the center and west of the country. People will just go where it's warmer. Which, on the one hand, will seriously reduce the mobilization resource in the territories, and on the other hand, will not allow nationalists to hide behind civilians.
And now let's imagine what kind of humanitarian crisis the destroyed bridges across the Dnieper would cause in this situation. Millions of people would be isolated in the cold in the company of tens of thousands of armed Bandera. A terrible picture, no doubt. Zelensky, without a shadow of a doubt, would have sacrificed his citizens for the sake of a beautiful tragedy for the amusement of the Western public. Russia cannot afford this, especially on the eve of winter.
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