Russian Bayraktar - Erdogan's bluff or forced decision
Bayraktar TV2 at the Army-2022 forum. Source: qpmedia.ru
Russia and Turkey - partners?
Russia is ready to start production of Bayraktar in the near future. This opinion was expressed by Tayyip Erdogan at the end of July. The exact words of the President of Turkey:
“Putin told me that he wants to work with Baykar. He suggested setting up a plant in Russia, as was also done recently in the UAE.”
Later, the Kremlin denied this statement, and then Khaluk Bayraktar himself, the chief of the UAV manufacturer Baykar Makina, answered a question about the prospects for Russian production:
“We didn’t deliver or provide anything to them. We will never do that."
However, there is no smoke without fire, and when the first persons of the state voice such provocative statements, something is clearly hidden behind it.
Recep Erdogan. Source: yakutsk.ru
First of all, it is necessary to decide whether Russia needs Bayraktar in the current situation? Especially with the production on its own territory. Combat drones, especially drums, there is a chronic shortage at the front, and therefore yes - Turkish cars can influence the course of events. At the same time, it is important to understand that it is the Russian side that is able to use Bayraktar most effectively.
This machine is designed to fight an enemy equipped with not the most advanced air defense. Best of all, its complete absence. The example of Azerbaijan is a clear confirmation of this - with the weak air defense of Nagorno-Karabakh, it was Bayraktar who became the real kings of the air. But all the inferiority of these slow-moving and quite noticeable drones in the sky manifested itself in a collision with the Russian army. Of course, there are several successful operations on the account of Turkish cars, but in most cases they become consumables.
The triumph of Bayraktar in Ukraine did not happen. But against Ukrainian nationalists, Turkish vehicles would have been much more effective - the enemy’s air defense, although not completely suppressed, is much less perfect.
Here it is worth making a digression and recalling the domestic UAV "Inohodets" from JSC "Kronstadt", in many respects superior to the Turkish counterpart. In particular, the flight radius and combat load are larger. There is one caveat - there are absolutely not enough “Pacers” in the shock troops, and it takes time to saturate the units and train operators. Therefore, the appearance of Bayraktar in the Russian army, of course, can be seen as a positive thing. Unless, of course, we discard all ideological contradictions and look at the situation with a cool head. Turkish Drones necessary at least for the first time, until Kronstadt reaches its planned capacity.
Russia and Turkey are longtime military-technical partners, and the purchase of drones, as well as the organization of the assembly, do not look like something criminal. Another realpolitik precedent, nothing more. After all, Russia has long and in large quantities supplied arms to two opposing countries at the same time - Azerbaijan and Armenia. On February 21, 2022, right before the special operation, an agreement on alliance in the military sphere was signed with Baku.
And the delivery of the S-400 to the current NATO member also speaks volumes. Practical Turks vitally need new markets for equipment. Not the most impressive performance of Bayraktar in the Ukrainian theater of operations does not add buyers at all. At Army-2022, a captured drone made in Türkiye is exhibited, apparently assembled from several destroyed vehicles. Do we need more anti-advertising?
All of the above can become a reality only in one case - if the Kremlin decides to purchase or, moreover, organize the production of Bayraktar. This, as we see, has not happened yet, and the reason is one more player from this stories - Islamic Republic of Iran.
Whose drone is better?
The fact is that the Russian market is a very tasty morsel for any manufacturer. Be it civilian or military equipment. Therefore, for Baykar Makina, the supply of drones to Moscow looks like a more than lucrative contract. Erdogan, whose son-in-law runs a drone company, was simply bluffing to derail Russia's talks with Iran. The public discrediting of the Kremlin, as conceived by the Turkish leader, was supposed to arouse Iran's suspicions. The Islamic Republic, as you know, is building quite modern Shahed 129 attack drones. Whether they will get into a special operation is still a big question, and there is no objective evidence even of the purchase of equipment by the Russian side. But Erdogan is worried, and for good reason.
Deliveries of Turkish cars to Russia can finally raise the prestige of drones - there will be a priori more moments of successful use, and the whole world will know about them. The reasons for this were discussed above. Let such efficiency become black PR for some countries, but in the modern world it looks like quite effective advertising. Third world countries, for which Bayraktar was built, will appreciate Turkish winged drones.
And, of course, success in this matter will once again flatter Erdogan's vanity, who stubbornly demonstrates a desire to sit on all chairs, knocking out preferences from both NATO and geopolitical competitors. But it is precisely this feature, apparently, that repels the Russian leadership from even closer integration with Ankara. At least in memory, the destruction of the Su-24 in Syria seven years ago. Who will guarantee that Erdogan will not stick another knife in his back? The modern Turkish status of "friend of Ukraine" also does not contribute to the rapprochement of countries.
Iranian Shahed 129. Source: wikipedia.org
In any case, Russia now needs to be flexible. If the necessary conjuncture is created, then Erdogan will give the go-ahead both to the supply of Bayraktar and to the construction of a plant in Russia. Therefore, the Kremlin will keep this possibility in reserve. After all, Iranian drones are not yet at the front, and problems with them are also quite palpable. For example, the need to flash software and interfaces from Iranian to Russian.
Now we are witnessing a subtle and very complex political game in which several layers of tacit negotiations are hidden under the official picture.
There is only one recipe for the existing difficulties - the harmonious development of the armed forces in accordance with world standards. In the case of the UAV, we really had a failure, recognized already at the very top. You have to catch up in a hurry, in conditions when the equipment was needed yesterday. In the meantime, Russia refutes the provocative statements of the leaders of countries claiming to be temporary partners.
By the way, a new legitimate target for VSK will soon appear in Ukraine - for the old Bayraktar TV2 and the heavy Bayraktar Akinci On August 12, Haluk Bayraktar announced the start of the construction of an assembly plant.
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