German press: Turkey aspires to become a gas hub for Europe, but the EU fears a new dependence
The German publication Handelsblatt discusses whether Turkey can become a new gas supplier for Europe as an alternative to Russia. The conclusions are contradictory. On the one hand, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is making a lot of efforts to make the country a new transit hub for energy exports to the EU countries. On the other hand, the EU itself is skeptical about the reliability of both the Turkish leader himself and Ankara's ability to provide sustainable supplies.
After the imposition of EU sanctions against Russia, European countries have serious problems with gas supplies. The EU's largest economy, Germany, is most acutely aware of the shortage of fuel already now and predicts a worsening situation in the coming winter. The most suitable alternative to Russian supplies, according to the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, could be Turkey, which has access to gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean and (through Azerbaijan) in the Caspian Sea.
However, experts say, this alternative has many risks. One of them, in addition to the fears of the FRG and other European countries of falling into a new dependence on a mono-supplier, sounds like this:
Can Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan be trusted?
Last year, Turkey imported a total of 47 billion cubic meters of gas, of which 45% came from Russian Gazprom, and another 16% were purchased from Iran. At the same time, in 2020 and 2021, about half of the gas supplied to Turkey from Russia via the Turkish Stream pipeline was in transit to Europe.
Ankara is ready to invest in the development of the gas transmission network, as well as expand the geography of gas injection in the Middle East, Iraq and even Israel, with which it has recently been trying to establish relations. However, the Iraqi government still does not allow Kurdistan, an autonomous region within the country, to enter into its own contracts with foreign companies. There are other risks of this route.
The organization of transit through third countries is a very complex legal process that requires, among other things, changes in legislation. Turkey needs larger gas storage facilities, which Ankara has no money to build. There are also political problems. For example, Turkey cannot organize transit through two practically unused gas pipelines to Greece and Bulgaria because of the conflict with Athens. In addition, elections will be held in both countries next year, so it does not make sense to make serious deals now.
Western countries are also not satisfied with Turkey's position on anti-Russian sanctions, which the Turkish president refuses to support and continues his strategic rapprochement with Moscow. Obviously, Ankara is under the political influence of the Kremlin, which is based on economic dependence.
After Russia stopped gas supplies to Bulgaria, Sofia tried to negotiate with Ankara and even received consent to alternative exports. But, under tacit pressure from Moscow, Ankara changed its mind and ultimately refused Bulgaria.
In May, Gazprom unexpectedly suspended deliveries via the Blue Stream gas pipeline, through which 60% of Russian gas goes to Turkey. On the same day, Erdogan announced that he would not support the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO. After that, gas supplies were resumed.
In January of this year, Iran also suspended gas supplies to Turkey without much warning. As a result, exports to Europe also decreased, and in Turkey itself, the work of industrial enterprises throughout the country had to be suspended for several days.
German companies are watching the announced blackouts with great concern
- commented on the situation at that time the head of the Turkish-German Chamber of Commerce Thilo Pal.
It is Moscow's political influence on Ankara, using Russian gas supplies as leverage, which Turkey is unlikely to find an alternative to, that frightens European leaders the most. Handelsblatt reminds one more case when in 2014, in the year of annexation of Crimea to Russia, Gazprom stopped exporting fuel to Turkey for a month without explanation.
During this time, the Turkish government approved the construction of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, through which Russian gas was supposed to flow to Europe.
- the German edition connects these two episodes.
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