Exchangers - for the Motherland, for the ruble
On August 16, a week or so later than promised earlier, judging by all official reports, Russia was supposed to open access to exchange trading for non-residents. And this, according to experts, almost unanimously, should certainly lead to a weakening of the ruble.
There are a lot of forecasts about this, and basically we are talking about the fact that Russia has already formed an increased demand for foreign currency. It is not entirely clear what it is more caused by - the desire to catch the emerging wave of growing imports, of course - foreign exchange, or still the desire to bring the currency abroad, which is familiar to many.
Another factor working against the ruble, experts call the desire of Western investors to leave the Russian market. In pursuance of the notorious sanctions restrictions. It is interesting that just under such a beautiful sauce - as "help with the exit", two American structures GP Morgan Chase & Co and Bank of America Corp began trading in Russian securities last week.
Meticulous analysts from Bloomberg found out that they resumed trading in Russian bonds, expressing their readiness to act as intermediaries in operations to exit the Russian market. What is called, where is the logic, where are the sanctions?
So, this is what has already confused our Russian experts, who believe that the simultaneous massive dumping of ruble assets will certainly bring down the ruble. However, according to the first data from exchange trading, no collapse happened.
Either because the lifting of restrictions in Russia is strictly limited, or because GP Morgan Chase & Co and Bank of America Corp do not have enough customers. Perhaps only for now, but the high yield of Russian securities, directly related to the strengthening of the ruble, is unlikely to push anyone to large-scale sales.
You can't live without oil...
A dollar at 70 rubles, it turns out, is already good and old. Although he is only eight years old. This is not a joke, but a definition that, with reference to exchange rates of 70 and 80 rubles, was made by one of the domestic banking analysts.
Liberal and biased, of course, although what is there to engage if the analyst is from a bank who is directly interested in making the ruble cheaper and the dollar with the euro more expensive. Otherwise, playing on courses is almost meaningless, and on margin is not profitable.
However, about 70 and 80 rubles for key currencies today can be forgotten, and it seems that now forever. After the US financiers deftly stuffed the entire EU with its euro into the Russian-Ukrainian press, one can only dream of 70 to 70, a maximum of 71-72 rubles.
Yes, even that is doubtful. After all, even the long-awaited decline in oil prices, and this with serious problems with supplies, in the event of a real world economic recession, will quickly come to naught. OPEC will probably just reduce overall production.
Moreover, the oil cartel, unlike the collective West, has no serious contradictions with Russia and Iran. Once again, Europe will have nothing left but to play by someone else's rules. And buy.
And not a word for a dollar
So, the ruble should supposedly weaken in Russia. And that means the dollar will rise in price. Although there was no real dollar deficit in the country, with all the colossal outflow of capital, it still doesn’t exist. Export earnings are only growing, and demand is only just beginning to grow, and only because imports have started to grow again.
But why the dollar should suddenly rise in price on a global scale, today not a single sane expert or banking analyst will tell you. There are so many dollars circulating around the world, and not backed by anything other than beautiful words from the Fed or the US Treasury, that the entire world GDP can be bought upright if desired.
For many years, this is exactly what the Fed and the Treasury were doing, while entire sectors of the American economy were rapidly degrading. Finance and services don't count, even though it's more than half of US GDP.
We will not touch high technologies either, although even there it does not do without a fly in the ointment in the form of stealing brains from everywhere, wherever possible. First of all, real production facilities have degraded, which has been visible to the naked eye for a long time, and brought the realist Trump to the presidency.
Is everything calm in Russia?
Returning to our homeland, we recall that the ruble is now, among other things, also backed by gas, or rather, by gas deals, which are impossible without it. This, by the way, has already saved our liberal financial authorities in the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance from a headache about the "excessive" money supply.
Isn't that why the same departments reacted so calmly to the withdrawal of a trillion rubles from the National Welfare Fund from the legislative taboo at once. This operation was recently announced not by anyone, but by Prime Minister Mishustin himself. A trillion is needed for the redemption of our own assets, and, if necessary, debts, and even on the cheap, and you will agree that you can’t imagine a better means.
They won’t take it, it’s okay: no, we won’t “turn off the gas”, but a trillion in the NWF can be returned. And although many are now embarrassed that the surplus of the foreign trade balance has gone down, but, again, this does not pose any threat to the ruble exchange rate. Moreover, in the regions these days there is an unexpected surplus of balance sheets.
Toward the end of summer, imports grow strongly, which eats up the hard-earned hard-earned currency. But the growth of exports has not stopped either, although it is noticeably lagging behind, but our exports are now being used primarily in rubles, which means that their exchange rate is under reliable protection.
The ruble has the prospect of falling sharply only in the event of serious changes in the foreign trade balance, and even then only if the ruble is not used within the country. And with this now, as you understand, everything is in order, one CBO sucks up how much free funds.
The defense industry, too, and no one stopped infrastructure projects. Don't you think that it's time to give something to ordinary citizens? Not to the detriment of the ruble, of course.
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