The beginning of Ethiopia's filling of the reservoir of the hydroelectric power station Hidase can lead to an armed conflict with Egypt
The commissioning of the Renaissance dam in Ethiopia and the filling of the reservoir of the Hidasa hydroelectric power station with water can lead to an armed conflict with Egypt. Moreover, there are already examples of wars over water, including in the post-Soviet space.
The construction of the Hydase hydroelectric power station is perceived by Cairo as a threat to its national security, since the facility being built carries the risks of redistributing the water resources of the Nile. At the same time, Addis Ababa this week officially refused to coordinate its actions on the work of the dam.
Negotiations stalled, and Ethiopia began to fill the reservoir without reaching a compromise with Egypt on the terms of the distribution of the flow.
The Ethiopian press writes that the construction of the dam has been one of the main goals of Ethiopia since the 1950s, "it has become a matter not only of national honor and pride, but of survival." It is expected that the implementation of the project will double the country's electricity generation, increasing it by more than 6000 megawatts.
However, this will have to hold huge volumes of water, which can potentially lead to a decrease in its level downstream.
- explained in the Ethiopian press.
Egypt is already suffering from water shortages, and the dam is able to exacerbate this problem, since 97% of its needs are met by the Nile. In Sudan, on the contrary, they fear flooding their lowlands if the reservoir overflows. Moreover, other countries can follow the example of Ethiopia by building new dams in the Nile basin: Eritrea, Kenya, Congo, Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda.
Sudan has already signaled that it can provide logistical and military support to Ethiopian rebels in response to Addis Ababa's water policy.
The Egyptian-Ethiopian dispute over the Renaissance Dam could escalate into a regional water war.
Historical precedents confirm the possibility of escalation of disputes around the dam into an armed clash.
According to UNESCO, between 1950 and 2000 there were 1831 conflicts over water. They, for example, constantly flare up in Iraq between the tribes. In April 2021, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan engaged in the most intense border fighting since 1991 over a dispute over water resources.
Ensuring equal access to water is one of the most important challenges of the XNUMXst century
- the Ethiopian press says, citing the water blockade of Crimea by the Ukrainian authorities as a negative example.
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