Military Review

German dilemma: Germany is interested in the early commissioning of the SP-2, but the allies are against

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The new German chancellor Olaf Scholz, barely taking office, has already managed to surprise the Western establishment. The politician, contrary to the expectations of many experts, took the position of his predecessor Angela Merkel on the issue of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

According to Scholz, the new Russian highway is primarily a commercial project. Therefore, there will be no political overtones in the decision on its certification, which will be taken exclusively by the German government.

If you look closely, the position of the chancellor is quite justified. Gas prices on the European raw materials market, due to its shortage, "skyrocketed" to unimaginable heights. Nord Stream 2, with its 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, could solve this problem.

Speaking of the problem. The shortage of "blue fuel" has already begun to affect the work of such industrial giants of Germany as BASF, Daimler, Siemens and others. At the same time, the filling level of underground gas storages in Germany this year is much lower than in previous periods.

Add to this the preparation of Germany for the decommissioning of the last three nuclear power plants and plans for the complete decarbonization of the industry by 2030.

Considering all of the above, it becomes obvious that Germany is in dire need of additional gas volumes, and the Russian SP-2 pipeline could be a solution to the problem. Olaf Scholz understands this very well, and therefore speaks for the soonest certification of the gas pipeline.

However, everything is not so simple here. In this case, the Chancellor's wishes are fundamentally at odds with the views of his geopolitical allies. Yes, what's geopolitical. There is "discord" in the FRG government itself. For example, the Green Party is a staunch opponent of the Russian gas pipeline.

Also, to put it mildly, a number of European states are not happy with the launch of the highway. Washington believes that the commissioning of Nord Stream 2 will turn Gazprom into a monopoly on the EU gas market and make Europe completely dependent on Moscow in terms of energy. This, in turn, according to the US, will undermine the national security of a significant part of the Euro-Atlantic community.

By the way, about the "monopolist". Nord Stream-2, unlike SP-1, is indeed fully owned by our gas giant. The pipeline is operated by Nord Stream 2 AG, owned by Gazprom. This was the main reason for the delay in the commissioning of the gas pipeline.

Therefore, Nord Stream 2 AG hastily set up a subsidiary in Germany to be certified in accordance with European legislation. According to many experts, Russia will soon cope with all the "bureaucratic delays" and the gas pipeline will be certified by the summer of 2022. Unless, of course, the West implements the "fallback" option. Right now, in response to NATO's aggressive rhetoric and Kiev's attempts to destabilize the situation in Donbas, our country has begun to strengthen its western and southern borders. The United States and the Alliance interpreted this as preparation for an offensive against Ukraine and threaten Russia with sanctions, including against Nord Stream 2.

In general, the current situation can be safely called the "German dilemma". Germany is interested in the early commissioning of the SP-2, but the allies (if they can be called such) are against.

In this regard, Olaf Scholz faces a difficult choice: to save the industry of Germany, which makes Germany the most developed country in the EU, or to continue to indulge the "whims" of the United States, which, by the way, do not care about German problems.
Author:
Photos used:
nord-stream2.com
56 comments
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  1. Pissarro
    Pissarro 29 December 2021 14: 37
    +6
    The first stream is working, according to which Germany receives gas under long-term contracts, and sells it to the EU on the spot. Takes 300, sells 2000. Is it really not profitable for the Germans?
    In my opinion, this is beneficial for the Germans, and Gazprom, and the Americans. A conspiracy to hike gas prices and cash in.
    1. Civil
      Civil 29 December 2021 14: 48
      -14
      The second main topic in the country, after Ukraine. No more problems. Won with the Angara a5 launch vehicle, problems happened, they write.
      1. just exp
        just exp 29 December 2021 15: 58
        +17
        I wish you that on your birthday, when the guests congratulate you on the holiday, your wife snorted unhappily and would say, "Enough is enough about how good he is, there are no more topics for conversation or what?" our balcony has not yet been insulated, and my daughter is sitting with an old laptop. and you sing praises to him here.
        I mean that there are always passengers who, in any positive news, will jump off to another negative topic.
        1. lis-ik
          lis-ik 29 December 2021 19: 18
          -6
          Quote: just explo
          I mean that there are always passengers who, in any positive news, will jump off to another negative topic.

          Please tell me, is the fact that the country is completely dependent on the export of raw materials is a positive in your opinion?
          1. The comment was deleted.
            1. lis-ik
              lis-ik 29 December 2021 20: 20
              -2
              The country's economy is not just kinking, it is in a global ass. Only a very narrow-minded person can say otherwise. do not judge by the "official" sources, look around, look at the purchasing power of the population and in the end give an example of what the Russian Federation actually exports of high-tech developments in modern Russia), name the Russian in the things and technology around you, I think it will not be enough. The modern Russian Federation rests only on the export of raw materials, and that is because it is their real and only income.
              1. Reserve buildbat
                Reserve buildbat 29 December 2021 20: 25
                0
                High-tech export? To whom? And so already the S-400 was sent to the country by NATO. Or do you propose to arm all NATO countries at our expense, so that they are not as fluid as at the thought that they have to attack Russia? And I repeat: look at the structure of exports. The share of raw materials is large, but not critical.
                1. lis-ik
                  lis-ik 29 December 2021 20: 36
                  -3
                  Quote: Stroibat stock
                  And I repeat: look at the structure of exports. The share of raw materials is large, but not critical.

                  According to a very recent decree that was canceled, now it is not a part of the proceeds, but the absolute whole. may remain abroad, which they did not fail to take advantage of, this is also superimposed on an outflow of investments in the amount of more than $ 4 billion. per month.
                  1. The comment was deleted.
                    1. Vladimir Mashkov
                      Vladimir Mashkov 29 December 2021 21: 23
                      0
                      Scholz, are the Germans in doubt? Well, we'll have to wait. Nothing clears the brains of the authorities and removes doubts like the crisis in industry and the discontent of the freezing population! laughing
              2. Rubi0
                Rubi0 29 December 2021 23: 18
                0
                You have collapsed from an oak tree, look at the back panel of the TV refrigerator washer, I give 100% that if you bought them in a store, then something will be Russian, if not all.
              3. Putnik119
                Putnik119 30 December 2021 06: 14
                +1
                Ukrainians! Disappear, finally, from Russian topics! After all, everything is fine with you! Better watch your hetman play the piano!
      2. Piramidon
        Piramidon 29 December 2021 16: 44
        +11
        Quote: Civil
        The second main topic in the country, after Ukraine. No more problems. Won with the Angara a5 launch vehicle, problems happened, they write.

        And you should, as always, go through the trash heaps to pick up shit and sketch your own manure. What does Angara have to do with this topic "
    2. Mountain shooter
      Mountain shooter 29 December 2021 14: 55
      +1
      Quote: Pissarro
      A conspiracy to hike gas prices and cash in.

      That's all one to one. There is no reason to launch. Prices will drop immediately.
      1. zloybond
        zloybond 29 December 2021 15: 10
        +4
        On the European market (not without the help of tame speculators) a whole amusement was played out to raise gas prices. All this continued and was carried out with one goal - to make prices favorable for the supply of liquefied gas and the United States. Prior to that, the profitability of such a business for America was not acceptable. I had to work hard. Swing up prices. And now they are reaping the fruits of their game. But at the same time Russia was exposed as guilty. And the United States is now saviors))))
        1. vitvit123
          vitvit123 29 December 2021 15: 30
          0
          Do you (by chance) know the price at which it becomes profitable to sell American gas in Europe? And then the prices have receded decently ...
          1. Tatyana
            Tatyana 29 December 2021 15: 47
            0
            Quote: zloybond
            All this continued and was carried out with one goal - to make prices favorable for the supply of liquefied gas and the United States. Prior to that, the profitability of such a business for America was not acceptable. I had to work hard. Swing up prices. And now they are reaping the fruits of their game. But at the same time Russia was exposed as guilty. And the United States is now saviors))))

            Meanwhile, the cost of American liquefied gas is still higher than the cost of pipe gas, as such, from Russia. Accordingly, the profit from the increase in the "market" gas prices in Germany from the sale of Russian gas is higher than from the American liquefied gas.
            Therefore, the US seeks, by POLITICAL-IDEOLOGICAL, on behalf of the measures of the Green Party, to oust Gazprom as its commercial competitor in Germany and, accordingly, from the EU and NATO countries.

            "Sorosikha" Annalena Berbock, regardless of German industrialists, serves precisely American, not German interests, and is ready to make a personal career for herself over the heads of the Germans in her advancement to work in the EU and the European Parliament.

            It doesn't give a damn about German industry and the population of Germany!
          2. Tusv
            Tusv 29 December 2021 15: 55
            -1
            Quote: vitvit123
            Do you (by chance) know the price at which it becomes profitable to sell American gas in Europe? And then the prices have receded decently ...

            I read something like that Gazprom's revelation on the Polish contract "Liquefy or pay." 1.5 years ago. The price for Poles on the American market is 2 times lower than that of Gazprom. But you still have to pay for the liquefaction and transfer it yourself across the ocean. How they showed their ambition that they are good fellows, but they were the first to howl from it nau. The Polish scheme does not work. The pipe works at a minimum, technical gas cannot be stolen, and only the "brilliant" Polish scheme remains.
          3. just exp
            just exp 29 December 2021 15: 59
            0
            on the whole he is right, although the Americans sold their gas well on the Asian market as well.
            and so the price of $ 500 for the equivalent of a thousand cubic meters is quite satisfactory for amers, although $ 1500 for a seller is always better than $ 500
        2. The comment was deleted.
    3. Flooding
      Flooding 29 December 2021 14: 59
      +2
      Quote: Pissarro
      Takes 300, sells 2000. Is it really not profitable for the Germans?

      and where are the volumes sold at the inflated spot price to be bought later?
      such speculations may be one-off, but not permanent.
    4. Troll
      Troll 29 December 2021 15: 11
      +3
      Is it really so unprofitable for the Germans?

      The Germans as a whole, with the exception of a narrow handful of bourgeois, are not profitable. Bo and heating and production are becoming more expensive. And Germany is strong, primarily in production. The whole world buys machine tools, mechanical engineering products.
      1. just exp
        just exp 29 December 2021 16: 00
        0
        there, the Germans are selling gas at the old prices
        this is for Belgium, the Czech Republic and Poland, gas is supplied at the exchange price
        1. Troll
          Troll 29 December 2021 16: 19
          0
          No. Wholesalers who sit on the pipe and accept gas at prices specified in long-term contracts have raised retail prices. Raised everywhere.
          1. just exp
            just exp 29 December 2021 16: 31
            0
            no, wholesalers hucksters bought only 5 billion cubic meters at long-term prices, but they sold 50 billion to those who ordered at long-term prices.
            Well, I wrote more than once - half of the retail trade in the EU is also under the subsidiaries of Gazprom
    5. dauria
      dauria 29 December 2021 15: 15
      0
      In my opinion, this is beneficial for the Germans, and Gazprom, and the Americans.

      Germans? It is profitable to slightly shake off the gas, but to drop the industry ... And to ditch the nuclear power industry is a solid benefit. And they had it at the US level in percentage terms. And little dependent on anyone else.
      Here some kind of insanity shows through, and not the state approach. After all, this is a country - a factory, not an office country, a bank country or a resort with a brothel. Without energy kirdyk.
    6. NKT
      NKT 29 December 2021 15: 38
      0
      Most of the gas via SP2 will go to underground storage facilities in Germany and Austria.
  2. Trapp1st
    Trapp1st 29 December 2021 14: 38
    +5
    Germany is interested in the early commissioning of SP-2
    While Germany is banishing gas on the spot, buying on long-term contracts, it has no reason to bring down gas prices as quickly as possible.
  3. yuriy55
    yuriy55 29 December 2021 14: 39
    -2
    German dilemma: Germany is interested in the early commissioning of the SP-2, but the allies are against

    To begin with, let them remember why this Germany was united, and what "benefits" the USSR received from this.
    It's not time to break ... I gave my word - hold on.
    1. Troll
      Troll 29 December 2021 15: 14
      +3
      Thanks to betrayal.
      And this is usually not remembered.
  4. Voltsky
    Voltsky 29 December 2021 14: 42
    0
    allies say there is no point in pipeline gas if it has the same price as LNG; and if someone does not believe, then the price will be easily made the right way.
    1. Non-fighter
      Non-fighter 29 December 2021 14: 55
      +2
      If I am not mistaken, the price formula in the pipe is considered as a mixture of the cost of oil and gas on the spot WITH LAG (delay), either 3 or 6 months. The oil / spot ratio should be found in the contracts. In short, let's wait and see. Not long left
      1. vitvit123
        vitvit123 29 December 2021 15: 33
        0
        If I am not mistaken, then the price formula that you described calculates the price for long periods, and the spot is the market, i.e. trading in real time .. although not 100% sure ..
        1. just exp
          just exp 29 December 2021 16: 02
          +1
          they were not mistaken, but the long-term prices are now 70% of the spot price and 30% of the oil price with a lag of 3 to 9 months (different infa is everywhere).
          therefore, even for a long term, high spot prices are beneficial to us
          1. Voltsky
            Voltsky 29 December 2021 20: 28
            +1
            pipeline long, on average ~ 400, depending on discounts and so on; but it is precisely the refusal of both pipelines and long-term contracts that is being lobbied, and all this, as you understand, in order to fight for a bright future and a clear sky overhead. And acid fields with contaminated groundwater from lithium and cobalt mining
  5. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 29 December 2021 14: 42
    +2
    From the point of view of the Russian Federation, it is also not unambiguous ... there is no SP2 prices are high .. they will let SP-2 prices go down .......... but, potentially, large volumes can be sold. In general, to make a branch from the joint venture and supply a liquefaction plant.
    1. Rubi0
      Rubi0 29 December 2021 23: 26
      0
      So the LNG plant in Ust Luga is already under construction, and by coincidence it will just be ready by 2024 at the end of the Ukrainian contract and the performance is the same.
  6. HAM
    HAM 29 December 2021 14: 43
    +6
    Germans, show solidarity, do not run the gas pipeline, freeze with everyone else, please the overseas chef, destroy your industry, you do not need it when there are factories in the states ..... the demagogy of your friends will warm and feed you ... hi
  7. Popandos
    Popandos 29 December 2021 14: 46
    0
    Germany is interested in the early commissioning of the SP-2, but the allies (if they can be called such) are against.

    From the series, I really want to, but the mother (striped) does not order.
  8. Alexander 3
    Alexander 3 29 December 2021 14: 46
    0
    (continue to indulge the "whims" of the United States, which, by the way, do not care about German problems.) - Everything has already been said, where are the conclusions? Is it really impossible to just live in peace, respecting each other. The United States just wants to buy only their gas Well, they also have a desire to annoy everyone, not only Russia, as much as possible. Business is called.
    1. rocket757
      rocket757 29 December 2021 14: 54
      -1
      A normal system like this ... there is CARDINAL and the rest, everything, others.
  9. rocket757
    rocket757 29 December 2021 14: 53
    0
    German dilemma: Germany is interested in the early commissioning of the SP-2, but the allies are against
    Is that so? Do they have allies there or who?
    However, now, gas-trading hucksters are welded, and they have only one ally, their wallet.
  10. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 29 December 2021 15: 02
    0
    None of the ukropatriots could have calculated such a profit of the Russian state from the standing joint venture 2.SP 2 is a painful point in Russia, let's push and get on with it.
  11. Alexander X
    Alexander X 29 December 2021 15: 19
    +2
    But explain the pozh. to me, the dull one: GAZPROM supplies gas to Europe under long-term contracts with a price several times lower than the spot price. And since this is so, then GAZPROM does not receive superprofits from huge gas prices in Europe? And since this is so, it means that GAZPROM does not beat back the costs of construction of JV 2 due to the jump in market prices for gas, although they say "from every iron" that it has already paid off.
    Without any "ulterior motives" - well, I don't understand ...
    1. vitvit123
      vitvit123 29 December 2021 15: 35
      +1
      Perhaps some companies affiliated with Gazprom in Europe trade on the spot ... as an option ... ours are also not quite mugs, as the situation shows ..
      1. Alexander X
        Alexander X 29 December 2021 15: 45
        +1
        Perhaps some companies affiliated with Gazprom in Europe trade on the spot ... as an option ... ours are also not quite mugs, as the situation shows ..
        That is, following your logic, some non-resident company of the Russian Federation receives gas under a long-term contract at a low price and resells it at a high price. Then income tax is paid to the treasury of the country of which this firm is a resident. And GAZPROM will then receive dividends from the firm's net profit. Moreover, these incomes, it is possible that they will be withdrawn from taxation in Russia (and lawfully). Is there in the Tax Code of the Russian Federation about income from the profits of subsidiaries with 100% participation of the mother ... "Plot"? ©
    2. Popandos
      Popandos 29 December 2021 15: 58
      0
      Without any "ulterior motives" - well, I don't understand ...

      The price for long-term contracts is not fixed, it also grows, although not at the same rate as on the spot.
    3. URAL72
      URAL72 29 December 2021 16: 26
      -3
      Gazprom has its own UGS facilities in Germany and Austria. It takes gas from there faster than it pumps it in. This gas goes to the spot, which gives an increase in profits. Gazprom and the Russian government have repeatedly stated that Russia is supplying more gas to Europe than is required under the contracts. The surplus goes to the exchange.
    4. just exp
      just exp 29 December 2021 16: 27
      -1
      Gazprom has half of the retail gas trade in the EU.
      there are companies wholly owned by Gazprom and there are the largest such as the German Winterchal where Gazprom's share is up to 50%
      in addition, the long-term price is 70% of the spot price and 30% of the oil price but with a lag of 3 to 9 months, that is, in 3-9 months even long-term prices will be th
  12. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 29 December 2021 15: 26
    -3
    Gas prices on the European raw materials market, due to its shortage, "skyrocketed" to unimaginable heights. Nord Stream 2, with its 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, could solve this problem.

    A strange thought.
    It is possible to increase the supply of gas to Europe and Germany without SP2 - there are other gas pipelines. And there is a reserve for pumping in them. The author confuses it with a shortage, when there is no product and the price of the leftovers is high. And we have - artificially inflated prices and the volume you want. At least with SP2, at least without it!
  13. Nyrobsky
    Nyrobsky 29 December 2021 15: 30
    0
    Considering that Gazprom's expenses on the SP-2 have already paid off, I must say - "Well, fuck with you, we will not launch it" and in general, these sanctions are no longer harming Gazprom and Russia, but Germany and Europe itself. Let them sit, freeze, watch their businesses go bankrupt and close and scratch their turnips. And the pipe can lie down.
    1. URAL72
      URAL72 29 December 2021 16: 33
      +1
      In general, your opinion is interesting, but SP-2 was built for profit, and not in order to return the money invested. At the same time, by launching the pipe, we deprive low-competitive shale gas from the United States of profit, as gas prices will fall. On the crest of current prices, Gazprom can no longer be forced to conclude contracts at the old prices. And these contracts are signed today, receiving "deferred" profit.
      1. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 29 December 2021 18: 42
        +3
        Quote: URAL72
        In general, your opinion is interesting, but SP-2 was built for profit, and not in order to return the money invested. At the same time, by launching the pipe, we deprive low-competitive shale gas from the United States of profit, as gas prices will fall. On the crest of current prices, Gazprom can no longer be forced to conclude contracts at the old prices. And these contracts are signed today, receiving "deferred" profit.

        This is all clear. However, all this fuss around the pipe is being conducted in order to annoy Russia and use the SP-2 topic as a lever of pressure in order to persuade it to make concessions both in terms of geopolitics (to continue transit through Ukraine) and in matters of setting a price for pipeline gas on favorable terms. If Russia takes the position “no, we don’t need to, we will move to the East,” then most likely screams will begin to be heard about the fact that Russia is not behaving as a partner. They understand that Russian gas is 40% of the gas market, and if they fall out, there is nothing to physically replace them and American LNG will not help. The new route to China, apparently, is being built with such an aim that if something happens, it is possible to redirect all European gas to China and Mongolia, and given that India and Pakistan are interested in extending the pipe to their territory, then further. Throwing a jumper from Ukhta to a new route is not so long.
  14. evgen1221
    evgen1221 29 December 2021 16: 45
    -1
    And not so that the amers had to take gas to Europe closer with their gas carriers, was a floating gas liquefaction plant built in the Russian Federation? All the best for children, American!
  15. JonnyT
    JonnyT 29 December 2021 16: 59
    -1
    Zroil Scholz, apparently the industrialists explained to him in a popular way what will happen next if you follow the directions from across the ocean - this is the transformation of the country into a Ukrainian-like entity.

    Soon frosts will hit harder both in Germany and the United States, it will be curious and funny to look at Euro-Atlantic solidarity "how the owners will turn the gas carriers towards themselves and / or refuel them on the SP2 hub of Germany, and Germany itself will somehow get warm - it will jump or there will be protected from Russian aggression
  16. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 29 December 2021 17: 02
    0
    Yes, a year ago, comments over 200 flew away easily, and now I'm 42.
    1. Brturin
      Brturin 29 December 2021 19: 27
      +1
      Andrey, what is there to discuss ... the situation has remained the same since mid-November ... Gazprom stands its ground, add. we do not sell volumes on the ETP, if you want more gas, conclude long-term contracts ... the EU ... they spend the way on subsidies, etc. ... these are their problems ... Roshen and other confectioners are thinking about stopping production ... let them think ...
  17. Avior
    Avior 29 December 2021 23: 21
    +1
    Germany is in dire need of additional gas volumes

    Unclear.
    And who now prevents this additional gas from being supplied through the existing gas transmission lines? They write that they supply just as much gas as they buy.
    And what will the additional branch of SP2 change in this case?
    The problem is not in transit opportunities, which are already redundant without it.
  18. p0pulivox
    p0pulivox 30 December 2021 13: 19
    -2
    Quote: Nyrobsky
    Given the fact that Gazprom's expenses for SP-2 have already paid off, then I must say - "Well, fuck with you, we will not run it" and in general, these sanctions are no longer harming Gazprom and Russia, but Germany and Europe itself. Let them sit, freeze, watch their businesses go bankrupt and close and scratch their turnips. And the pipe can lie down.

    This song will never end! Ignoring the sound comments, in every way, the phrase about the paid off gas pipeline is repeated like a spell. Once again, a question arises that remains unanswered: by what calculations did it pay off?