"Millions of people are evacuated for decades": presented a report on the consequences of possible missile strikes on nuclear facilities in the Middle East
Akkuyu NPP construction in Turkey
The American Non-Proliferation Policy Center (NPEC) presented an analysis of the possible risks of missile strikes against nuclear facilities (primarily power plants) in the Middle East. The experts who made it up warn: if a missile strike is struck at some of the nuclear energy infrastructure facilities, people will not be able to live in this territory for several decades due to the peculiarities of the Middle East climate and landscape. It will be an incredible humanitarian catastrophe.
Where nuclear power plants are being built in the Middle East
Despite the fact that many countries in the Middle East are interested in the construction and development of nuclear power plants, American experts warn that it is madness as long as the region remains a global "hot spot". Now the UAE has its own nuclear power plant, the construction of nuclear power plants is underway in Turkey and Iran, Egypt is going to build a nuclear power plant with four reactors in El Dabaa on the Mediterranean coast. Saudi Arabia and Jordan have announced their nuclear energy ambitions.
Meanwhile, we must not forget that all the listed countries are within the reach of missiles that can be launched not only and not so much by hostile states as by terrorist groups operating in the Middle East and not having any special deterrent factors. For example, the same Houthis can attack nuclear facilities in the UAE or, if they appear, in Saudi Arabia.
So, in September 2019, missiles of the Yemeni Houthis broke through the air defense system of Saudi Arabia and hit the Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Hurais and Abqaik. As a result of the Houthi attack, the production of about 50% of the Saudi kingdom's oil was temporarily interrupted. Will the information on the great ecological and humanitarian danger prevent the Houthis from launching the same attack against a nuclear facility, if necessary? The question is open.
What will be the consequences of strikes on nuclear power plants
American scientists are most concerned about the consequences of the penetration of the used nuclear power plant cesium-137 (Cs-137) into the atmosphere. Eva Lisowski, one of the authors of the report, warns that due to the release of cesium, several hundred thousand people, or rather millions, will have to leave their homes and not return to their homes for several decades. The half-life of cesium, to put it mildly, is not fast.
Mandatory and voluntary evacuation card in the event of strikes against nuclear power plants in the Middle East
In the report, four sites were selected to analyze the consequences of a possible missile strike: the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE, Bushehr in Iran, the Akkuyu nuclear power plant under construction in Turkey and Egypt's planned nuclear power plant in El Dabaa. It should be understood that this is not a complete list of nuclear facilities in the Middle East, real and potential. For example, for some reason, the report did not touch upon the reactors of the Shimon Peres Nuclear Research Center in Israel.
Especially dangerous, according to the authors of the report, are strikes on tanks with spent nuclear fuel. Considering the amount of spent nuclear fuel stored in such tanks, the impact of the impact will be several times greater than that of the reactor itself.
For example, if one of the three scenarios of an attack on SNF tanks from the Barakah NPP in the UAE is realized, 4 million mandatory and up to 8 million voluntary evacuations will have to evacuations. Roughly the same indicators - and in the case of potential strikes on other nuclear power plants.
How to prevent such risks, the report does not indicate, since it is devoted only to an analysis of the consequences of strikes. But many countries that provide assistance to the Middle Eastern states in the construction of nuclear power facilities, according to American experts, should think about what dangers this can lead to in the global "hot spot".
Considering that Russian companies are directly involved in the construction of nuclear power plants in Iran and Turkey, it is quite understandable against whom (including) this American report with notes of alarmism is directed and why it does not mention other countries in the region with nuclear infrastructure ...
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