How much should Crimea be recognized as Russian?
"We built, built, and finally built!" This phrase from the cartoon is the best fit for the moment. Less than eight years later, President of Belarus Lukashenko admitted that Crimea is the territory of Russia.
In this regard, many are asking questions and fiercely discussing the topic of who, and to whom, and how this significant event will turn out.
Indeed, in this case, the only interesting thing is why exactly now Alexander Grigorievich decided on such a "desperate" act?
The reactions, by the way, are very different. Someone thinks that Lukashenka “finally got into the general system”, someone - that Alexander Grigorievich received regular preferences in time.
The truth is, in fact, somewhere else altogether. Let's first look at the eternal principle, which was voiced by the ancient Romans. "Who benefits from?" After all, many in our country, in the West, immediately started yelling out loud that it was Putin who bought Lukashenka with giblets, that Putin simply needs someone to recognize Crimea, and so on.
Absolutely not being a fan of Putin, I will absolutely impartially say that in all 7 years that have passed since the return of Crimea to Russia, I cannot cite a single fact that Putin pressed someone with recognition. If there was such a thing at all, it would have surfaced for sure, because it could not but have surfaced. Any deal like "You give us recognition of Crimea, and we have a lot of tasty things for you" would definitely be announced, simply because the topic is more than poisonous.
But - complete silence. And with Belarus itself, no matter what conversations were going on, no one demanded or expected confessions. Admitted - well, not admitted - we will not be upset.
Here it is worth recalling the very first resolution on Crimea, which was 68/262 of 27.03.2014/XNUMX/XNUMX. Yes, it was a high-profile case, but let's remember in more detail who voted and how.
There are now 193 countries in the world that have the right to vote in the UN.
For the resolution, that is, against the annexation of Crimea to Russia, 100 countries voted. This is understandable, USA and satellite minions.
11 countries voted AGAINST the resolution. Seven of them recognized Crimea as Russian, four were simply against the resolution, but they did not dare to recognize Crimea, just in case.
First list:
Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, DPRK (North Korea), Syria, Sudan, Palestine, Afghanistan.
These countries voted against the resolution and recognized Crimea for Russia. The list is, shall we say, very so-so. International outcasts, countries at war, and so on. Something more or less similar to a country - perhaps only Cuba. Everything else is a political slag, on whose opinion nothing depends. Surprise then was caused only by Afghanistan, which was harshly under the American administration, but gave out like this.
Four countries that were AGAINST, but did not recognize Crimea, are also half interesting. Bolivia and Zimbabwe (with which we will now explore space together) and Armenia and Belarus. Our, so to speak, the closest allies.
58 more countries ABSTAINED. There were also quite respectable and strong countries like China, India, Brazil and Kazakhstan. The message was very simple: "we are not interested in your showdown." Probably the most apolitical and honest position in this regard. China and India, we must give them their due, regularly vote against all anti-Russian resolutions, but Crimea is not recognized.
And 24 countries did not vote at all. Probably, these are those who do not know at all where it is - Crimea and why it is necessary to vote on this matter.
So, as you can see, the list of those who recognized Crimea as Russian territory is so extensive that one could simply not look at it. But here everything is simple: seven countries have clearly defined their position, regardless of the entire world community. And some, like Belarus and Armenia, decided to wait. Bargain. Wait for a better moment.
And what, they also voted "against"! So, it seems like we did half a step. Everything is simple with Armenia. They expected Russia to become a shield against Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh issues. But it didn’t grow together. Russian soldiers did not go to die for Armenian Wishlist, so Crimea remained unrecognized in Armenia, and part of the lands of Karabakh went to Azerbaijan.
To be fair, everything is logical. Either you are an ally and go with the overlord, or ...
And Belarus did even more interesting. For a long time, Lukashenka was reproached for trying to sit on two chairs at once, to be friends in full with both Russia and the West. The fact that Lukashenko tried very hard not to swear to the end with the Europeans and Ukrainians is the same indisputable fact that 7 out of 10 liters of fuel poured into the tanks by the Ukrainian army are made in Belarus from Russian raw materials.
Everyone tried to endure the quirks of Alexander Grigorievich, but Europe was the first to run out of patience. The Ukrainians endured to the last, because they needed cheaper oil products.
As a result, in the summer of 2020, relations between Belarus and Europe began to deteriorate, then Ukraine added its own freaks. And what about Russia? And Russia is nothing.
Indeed, the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory is completely irrelevant in Moscow. Some oppositionists assert out loud that the recognition of Crimea is almost Putin's main dream. Not really. The Kremlin understands perfectly well that the world community will never recognize Crimea as Russian, but will be in a bunch of outcasts, 7 or 8 who recognize it - against the general background, this is not so important. Against the general background, this is not at all critical and not fundamental.
The Belarusian opposition claims that by recognizing Crimea, Lukashenko paid for some very important service to the Kremlin. Actually not very important, because the cost of recognition is frankly very low. Yes, the "deflection" is counted, but it is very doubtful that this will result in some super-great preferences for Lukashenka. Too late.
Another question is that this is just a declaration by the President of Belarus of his future intentions.
In fact, Belarus has plunged headlong into the barrel of European sanctions. Ukrainian-Belarusian relations have deteriorated to the utmost and in fact have become not as important in terms of profit as relations with Russia.
And then, as much as Kiev did to worsen the Belarusian-Ukrainian relations, no one did. One gets the impression that in Ukraine the oil is full of fountains and there is no point in helping the neighbors. Kiev has complicated relations so much with its anti-Belarusian attacks last year, demonstrating its doubts about legitimacy and everything else, that it is not surprising how everything fell apart.
If I were the president of Belarus, I would definitely be offended by my neighbors for the “self-proclaimed”. Probably, Lukashenka also harbored a grudge.
Well, when Minsk ceased to suit the Ukrainians as a platform for negotiations on Donbass, the need for neutrality, which Lukashenka seemed to hold, was no longer needed.
It's time to decide who you are with and who you are for.
I adhere to the fact that a message came to Lukashenka from the Kremlin: Alexander Grigorievich, have you already decided whether you are smart or beautiful? Enough to be torn already!
And here everything becomes clear and in place. Proof of real alliance, not idle talk. Demonstration of the fact that the “bogo-vector”, which Lukashenka so gracefully demonstrated all these years, is over. No, in reality, multi-vector is not bad, and you can and should be friends with the largest possible number of participants in the world community, but ...
But in the world, the overly "windy" is not very much loved and appreciated, is it?
In fact, the fact that the president of Belarus actually asked for a trip to Crimea with the Russian president is just a demonstration of loyalty.
Of course, you will have to pay something for this. It is not for nothing that the Belarusian (and part of the Russian who fled) opposition dispersed abroad is yelling at all voices that it would be nice for Kiev to gather with a formidable force and show Lukashenka where the crayfish winter.
The list of punishments and sanctions is simply staggering: to declare the official non-recognition of Lukashenko as the president of Belarus, to expel the ambassador of the former president of Belarus from Ukraine, declaring him persona non grata. Stop any international cooperation with Lukashenka and his representatives and impose tough economic sanctions.
Yes, but will the opposition gentlemen drive gasoline and diesel fuel for Ukraine themselves?
It is clear that in Ukraine itself no one is yet eager to take action. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba generally said that Lukashenka says a lot, let's see what and how he will do it. That is, in Kiev they decided to wait until Lukashenka flies to Sevastopol.
Yes, when (or if) the president flies to Crimea, and even to a meeting with the Russian president, there will be nowhere to go. It is no longer possible to make a face in the style of "Yes, I just hit the sea." And after such a meeting, Kiev, of course, will stand on its hind legs in full. Even if he does not want to, the authorities will have to stand up, because Ukrainian nationalists will definitely not appreciate such a turn.
Kiev will have to react, but, excuse me, how? Sanctions? Do not make me laugh.
In the first quarter of this year, Minsk and Kiev exchanged goods and services for about $ 1,2 billion, and the trade balance is not in favor of Kiev. Ukraine exported goods and services worth $ 334,2 million, and the import of Belarusian products cost Kiev $ 884,9 million.
And who can scare whom with sanctions?
The termination of supplies of Belarusian fuel is very serious.
The only way Kiev can harm Minsk is to ask for sanctions for Belarus in Europe. Considering Lukashenka’s “popularity” abroad, it may work out. To what extent Brussels is ready to do this today - we will see. But they are not stupid either, they understand that every kick weighed out by Lukashenka from Europe will only throw the Belarusian leader into the arms of Russia.
Most likely, one should not expect great upheavals. Ukraine needs Belarusian gasoline, so if their confessions from Crimea make a show, it will not be very loud. Gasoline is more important than Lukashenka's demonstrations.
And it turns out that everyone will remain with their own people: Lukashenka will confirm his loyalty to an ally in Russian eyes, Kiev stinks in its own style, but the need for fuel and lubricants will do its job, shout angrily and continue. Europe can announce a couple of additional sanctions for Belarus to maintain its reputation and everything will calm down.
The only one who will not receive any profit will be Russia. But this is also normal for us. At least there is nothing out of the ordinary in the current situation. And, seriously, we have more important problems in the country and outside it than counting how many countries recognize us as right in the situation with Crimea.
In any case, as I said, the international community will never recognize the return of Crimea to Russia as legal. And therefore it is not worth paying in full weight for it. This will not add value to Crimea; rather, on the contrary. And if so, then there is nothing.
Information