A Non-Peaceful Settlement: Why the War in Syria Doesn't End
Photo: Christiaan Triebert / flickr.com
Multifactor conflict
A peaceful settlement after such a long and bloody war is a very difficult process. Especially if this is a war in the Middle East and if several major players are involved in it at once. In the Syrian stories At first glance, everything seems quite optimistic - most of the country is under the control of Bashar al-Assad's army. Only in the northeast of Syria has a complex cocktail of the opposition "Syrian National Army", terrorists, Turkish forces, Americans and Kurds formed.
It would seem that refugees should return to the territories liberated with the help of the Russian Aerospace Forces. In Lebanon and Turkey alone, there are at least five million people displaced from war-torn Syria. However, everyone stays where they are. The peace that is spoken about in the liberated territories is too unsteady.
Among the refugees, there are stories of atrocities happening in the territories controlled by Damascus - robberies, kidnappings and human trafficking. People are afraid that with the unexpected exit from the conflict of one of the parties - the United States, Turkey or Russia - the situation may change dramatically, and they will again be forced to look for a new home. The ruins left at home are little better than conditions in refugee camps in neighboring states.
Every hopeful news about the end of the war invariably ends either in tragedy or another failure of government forces. First of all, hopes were pinned on the Syrian Constitutional Committee, within which the issue of a mutual peaceful resolution of the war is being considered. Taking into account the opinions and interests of the opposition and the government, of course.
The key controversy unfolded around the Syrian constitution.
The opposition is demanding a completely new basic law, while official Damascus insists on making adjustments to the 2012 version. At the request of Turkey, the Kurds were not included in the committee at all, which also does not contribute to a peaceful settlement at all. As a result, the last - the sixth - meeting of the constitutional committee on October 22 in Geneva ended in nothing.
The terrible explosion on October 20 in Damascus, which claimed the lives of 20 Syrian soldiers, played a significant role in this.
It was the largest terrorist attack in the last 4 years, which took place near the hotel, where the Russian delegation often stays. The organizers tried to achieve two goals at once - to intimidate Russia and prevent a peaceful settlement in Geneva. At least one was influenced, and the delegates of the constitutional committee left Switzerland without even agreeing on the next round of negotiations. The terrorist attack was exposed by the inability of Assad's special services to control the situation in the Syrian capital. A further escalation of the terrorist threat could be costly to supporters of a peaceful settlement of the war in Syria.
However, how many of these same supporters?
And is Bashar al-Assad himself ready to put up with the opposition on the terms dictated by Moscow and Iran?
The answer is not so obvious.
Assad comes out of isolation
There are no friends in the East, but only temporary or forced allies. It seems that Damascus is quite satisfied with the status quo and is ready to diversify its foreign policy. In a sense, to slightly move the interests of Russia and Iran, without which the return of Syrian territory to the government would be impossible.
This is facilitated by a favorable diplomatic climate. Despite the fact that the country is under tough US sanctions in the form of the Syrian Civilian Protection Act, Damascus officials manage to establish diplomatic contacts. So, in early September 2021, the Syrians were invited to Amman for quadrilateral talks with Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. The topic was economic aid to Beirut, which, by the way, has sheltered at least 2 million Syrian refugees.
Further more. The Arab Emirates, which opposed the Assad regime from the very beginning of the war, unexpectedly offered to invest in the restoration of the republic and opened a representative office in Damascus. Everything leads to the fact that the diplomatic isolation of Syria is gradually weakening, at least on the part of the Arab countries. Abdullah II, the Jordanian king, who has been hosting Assad's opponents for many years, has already held telephone conversations with the Syrian leader.
Contacts between the two countries are also observed at the level of defense ministers. The state airline Royal Jordanian has resumed flights to the Syrian capital after a break. The League of Arab States, in turn, is ready to return Bashar al-Assad to the negotiating table on partnership terms - Egypt, Oman, Tunisia, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates agree with this.
So far, only Saudi Arabia has been displeasedly silent, but it will eventually agree with the opinion of the majority. If nothing extraordinary happens, then at the beginning of next year the next League summit will be held with the participation of the Syrian government.
Moreover, in the middle of this year there were rumors that Bashar al-Assad was ready for "separate" negotiations with the American government. Later, the media was quick to refute the information, citing rumors spread by opponents of the authorities. However, many analysts see attempts to establish a dialogue with the third players in history, behind the backs of Tehran and Moscow, quite understandable. First of all, because of Damascus' reluctance to resolve the issue peacefully, to which the Iranians and Russians are pushing it. Conciliation on the conditions of the constitutional committee, according to Damascus, does not make much sense - the opposition is kept on its feet solely due to Turkish aid.
Northeast Syria
The stumbling block of the Syrian conflict is the situation in the north-east of the country, in which the Americans, Turks, Kurds and the Syrian oppositionists grappled with each other.
The United States supports the Kurds as much as it wants, and Turkey, in turn, is trying to prevent the formation of Kurdistan on its borders. At the same time, the Joe Biden administration is ready to leave Syria, but the Kurdish problem does not yet allow this. The American administration already has a shameful case with the flight from Afghanistan, and it will be completely superfluous to add more abandoned Kurds to the karma.
At the same time, the Kurds are not ready for close cooperation with Russia. According to Ilham Ahmed, chairman of the executive committee of the Syrian Democratic Council, the Kurds have rejected Russia's offer to station 3 troops in Kobani in exchange for returning the area to Damascus jurisdiction. The fears of the Kudrs are connected with the prospect of complete control by Bashar al-Assad, under which there can be no talk of any autonomy.
A peaceful settlement in Syria is quite possible in the next year and even a few months. Only now it is necessary to remove all external forces - the United States, Turkey and Russia.
Bashar al-Assad is now quite capable of regaining control of 100% of the territory, but the behavior of the army and special services will not differ much from the situation ten years ago. Without external power control, Damascus may well arrange a large-scale retaliation action, including for those who return to their homeland.
Few people believe that the interests of the Kurds and the moderate opposition will be taken into account. Therefore, the complex military-diplomatic game in the Middle East will continue for more than one year.
And at this time, in Syria itself and its environs, a generation will grow up that has not seen either a peaceful life, or even a minimal education. What kind of social explosion this threatens in the future, one can only speculate.
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