Europe again remembered about independence. Juncker's ideas live and win
There are a lot of materials about what is happening in Afghanistan today. We have looked at the American flight from Afghanistan from different angles. But at the same time, for some reason, they forgot that not only the Americans, but also the NATO bloc as a whole, took part in the operation in Afghanistan.
We were reminded of this by the Taliban, who widely held a "funeral" not only for the American army, but also for the armies of other countries - members of the alliance. I think many readers have seen these frames with coffins covered with flags of different countries. Unlike us, the militants knew very well what they were doing. This is a spit at NATO, not the United States.
Against this background, it is quite logical to announce that the Taliban (requested in the Russian Federation) wants to maintain friendly relations with the Americans. I will add on my own - will maintain friendly relations. President Biden is well aware of the need for rapid cooperation with the new authorities in Kabul. This will become at least some kind of "neutralizer" of the failure in Afghanistan.
"An old song about the main thing" in European style
November 2016. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker voices the idea of creating a European rapid reaction force. The idea is good, as it allows Europeans in some cases to independently resolve military issues on their own territory.
Juncker already understood then that the Americans had no intention of fighting for Europe. And what at that time seemed unshakable, the economic and military dominance of the United States in the world, will soon end. Americans cannot control the entire world for long alone. The resources of even the most powerful country are not unlimited. This means that soon the Europeans themselves will have to pay for security.
He also spoke about the creation of an independent defensive alliance of European countries. And not within the framework of NATO, but completely independent. And in the long term - about the creation of a unified European army.
The idea was supported by French President Macron. It was Macron who proposed not just creating a defensive alliance, but also financing it through the EU's single military budget. And having its own COP and a channel for financing the army, the EU would have the opportunity to develop its own military doctrine for the defense of Europe. German Chancellor Merkel agreed with President Macron.
But…
What about NATO?
Those military units and formations that exist in European countries are subordinate to the NATO command, that is, American generals. The locations of these units also belong to the alliance. It turns out that in order to create even small-scale rapid response forces, European countries must significantly increase their military budgets.
At the same time, the defensive capabilities of the EU will increase slightly. This is exactly what NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenber said in an interview with Spanish El Pais in November 2019:
“We live in a world in which we must be together. The reality is that there are so many challenges, so many threats, so much uncertainty that the best way to protect a country is to be with other countries. ”
So the love of Europeans for money overpowered the desire to become protected. And conversations about one's own stomach won out over conversations about independence and independence in decision-making. Everything was quiet. But Afghanistan happened ...
Guard, we are defenseless against the aggressors
“We Europeans have found that we are dependent on US decisions not only on the evacuation of people from Kabul airport, but also on a wider range of issues. This should serve as a wake-up call for everyone who cares about the North Atlantic Alliance. "
This phrase belongs to the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell. And this is already the end of the summer of 2021.
Suddenly Europe realized that she was nobody and her name was no way?
Alas, understanding, as I have shown above, was, but the greed of European politicians, unwillingness to spend money on defense, turned into the need for much greater costs in a shorter time.
The new idea, voiced by Borrell, is called rather strange for military doctrine - "European compass". The new concept of European security is to increase autonomy in military matters from the United States. As you can see, the head of diplomacy does not even set the task of an independent defensive policy. Just the right to determine dangerous directions by ourselves.
The concept should be developed in an easy-to-understand form in October-November this year. To be honest, it is doubtful that such a task is within the power of Europe. In a month or two, you can develop a concept from words that do not commit to anything. Slogans combined into a single text. There are many of them today. Strengthen, organize, express concern, support the aspiration ...
According to Western analysts, Compass is very similar to NATO's strategic concept. Defining a common vision of external threats, methods of countering them and planning joint defense projects. Including in the development of new types of weapons. How the Europeans plan to counter the American arms lobby is not yet clear.
The strategy is designed for the next 5-10 years. Simply put, if you remove unnecessary words, it turns out that to create its own full-fledged army, the EU assigns itself exactly this period. During this time, Europe must recreate a powerful military industry and develop weapons superior to those of Russia and China.
Why the question has surfaced again is understandable. Europeans are afraid. Yes, they are afraid. We have often heard in disputes about the power of the alliance, which is many times greater than, for example, the power of the Russian army. However, after the drap from Kabul, even the Europeans themselves do not believe in this power. Just as they do not believe in the independence of their own governments.
Europe suddenly realized that the United States regards all treaties, agreements and other interstate acts as nothing more than decisions that are necessary at this particular moment, not binding in the future. The situation is changing, and any contract turns into zilch.
The European Compass program is just an attempt to revive at least some independence of the EU, to get away from the need to follow the Americans in matters of foreign policy. A kind of insurance against unexpected American decisions.
Europe wants to mean something
For a long time, the EU has supported all US military decisions. Americans, Europeans and the whole world are used to this. For politicians from different countries it was more important to know the opinion on some issue, for example, Israel, than any European country.
Today the EU understands that such a situation is not beneficial. It is not profitable simply economically. The same Afghanistan under the new government will negotiate something with the United States, and not with Germany or France. Even the militants understand that after they reach an agreement with the Americans, Europe will not dare to utter a word.
On the other hand, Washington also realizes that any rupture of the United States with any country leads to a rupture with the global West. This is quite an expensive pleasure in the era of economic globalization. Therefore, even there they agree to a certain independence of Europe.
The same Josep Barrell expressed this idea very well in his interview:
"A more strategically autonomous and combat-ready EU will be better able to cope with the challenges that will arise in Europe's neighboring countries and beyond."
The diplomat spoke even more openly about Afghanistan. Yes, today for the USA, France, Germany, Great Britain the entrance to this country is closed. In the memory of the world, "coffins with flags" at the funeral of the occupiers in Kabul are still preserved. But there are states in the EU that may well establish diplomatic relations with the new government.
“We cannot allow them (the opponents of the United States, primarily the Russian Federation and the PRC) to be the only interlocutors with Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the West. Europe, together with the United States, must reconsider its participation. "
I think it makes no sense to decipher the quote.
Afghanistan is too important to the world in terms of its geographic location. This means that Afghanistan is very important for Europe.
Charles Michel, President of the European Council, did not stand aside either. I quote from RT in Russian. Unlike Barrel, Michelle focuses on economics as the basis of sovereignty:
“We don't need a second Afghanistan to understand that the EU should strive for greater autonomy and ability to act. Our strategic autonomy requires working on our economic strength, relations with neighbors and security capabilities. "
Brief conclusion on the situation
So, the victory of the Taliban (requested in the RF) revealed many contradictions between the countries. That which until recently seemed unshakable for many decades. Contradictions that were not critical before suddenly began to seriously affect the foreign policy of many countries.
More and more politicians understand that the hope for someone else's uncle who will come and protect is just a chimera. It is not for nothing that most peoples have analogues of our well-known proverb - trust in God, but do not make a mistake yourself. This means that the great powers, around which the small countries were concentrated, will more and more often face the fact that these allies will act independently in some issues. The tail of "all supporters" will no longer be so monolithic.
In general, the process of dismantling the old world and the birth of a new one is still going on more or less calmly. Those small nuances that we periodically learn about, although unpleasant, are not critical.
And the European army, the need for which European politicians have been talking about for so long (may Vladimir Ilyich forgive me for borrowing), according to the latest information, will not be large. Most likely, it will be called the COP brigade, and its number will be no more than 5 thousand people.
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