The seller is always right: the tsunami of Russian pricing
Source: fb.ru
Prices come out of hibernation
The summer of 2021 will be remembered not only for the third wave of coronavirus infection in Russia, but also for the unprecedented rise in prices. The most sensitive sector is certainly food.
The so-called "borscht set" has risen in price by several tens of percent. According to Rosstat, in May-June only carrots have risen in price by 64% - in some regions (for example, in Volgograd) the cost of a kilogram of this root crop has reached a fantastic 150 rubles. During the same period, beets grew by 50%, cabbage - by 40%, potatoes - by a third of the price of the beginning of spring.
It has become customary for Russians to equalize the cost of overseas fruits and domestic vegetables. Paradoxically, bananas imported from Ecuador were in the same price as carrots in May-June. Although in some regions the root crop still took its toll and bypassed the South American fruit. Compared to last year, the record holder of the rise in price was the beet with a six-fold increase in price, followed by carrots, the price tag of which increased by two and a half times, and the top three were potatoes, with a XNUMX-fold rise in price.
Photo: oblgazeta.ru / Pavel Vorozhtsov
What do such phenomena, at least surprising for our country, speak about?
First of all, that these are rather difficult times. And the hardest thing in such a turbulent financial period is the poorest. It is this category of citizens who, in any scenario of the development of events, are forced to buy the “borscht set” that has risen in price and redistribute their budget for this. Simply put, vegetable suppliers may not think about the social effect and continue to break prices - Russians will buy anyway. Especially in the hottest period of spring and early summer, when their own root crops have not yet ripened.
According to Rosstat, there are now about 20 million low-income citizens in the country, for whom the increase in the cost of a vegetable food set is very critical. However, not only vegetable.
However, one cannot blame solely the monopolists in the food market.
The rise in the price of food is also associated with the global depreciation of money. During the pandemic, printing presses were turned on around the world, and at least 10 trillion surplus dollars entered the market. Therefore, the growth in the cost of a conventional carrot is explained by the rise in price of a vegetable on a global scale, as well as a banal shortage of it within the country.
History with a shortage of carrots leaves back in 2019, which turned out to be abundant in the harvest. This, in turn, led to a decrease in prices down to the cost price. What did this lead to? That's right, farmers planted fewer carrots in 2020. This prudence was compounded by a drought followed by heavy rains - this reduced the expected yield by 10%. As a result, this summer we see a price of 150 rubles and an active import of vegetables.
Several other important factors contributed to the increase in cost. During the pandemic, the ruble was slowly but surely depreciating against the leading currencies.
The farmers needed to maintain and update the infrastructure and, given the high technological dependence on imports, this resulted in additional costs.
A common misfortune for the entire manufacturing sector in Russia is the shortage of foreign labor. The migrant workers stayed at home due to covid restrictions, and the local labor force requires a larger social package and increased wages. A similar phenomenon is now inflating prices on the primary real estate market - there is a chronic shortage of builders in Russia.
Surprisingly, fertilizers have risen in price in Russia. On average, 60%. At the same time, our country is a longtime exporter of mineral and organic fertilizers with a large share of the foreign market. Here the situation is similar to the rise in fuel prices - a weak national currency stimulates sales abroad, while within the country consumers suffer from price increases.
Sellers are also responsible for the rise in prices.
First, the domestic market is monopolized. Over the past five to six years, so-called retailers have multiplied in most cities, dictating prices in the consumer market. First, large retail chains cut back on small businesses, and then local suppliers of products. And now food is being transported to the regions of the Urals and to the east across half the country, although local producers cannot sell their crops.
Due to the lack of competition, large manufacturers / resellers do not care about the long-term preservation of products. The example with carrots is indicative - there are few vegetable stores in the country capable of storing products until the period of high prices. This would allow to avoid overstocking of stores and smooth out price surges in the market.
Tsunami with the cost of a "borscht set" is far from the only one in the country. Another buy-to-seller battle has erupted in the automotive market.
More expensive and even more expensive
On the one hand, the demand for new cars in Russia is growing. Compared to the first half of 2020, which became a pandemic "low base", sales grew by 37% at once. Of course, not an indicator, but even in comparison with a relatively prosperous 2019, an increase of 5,1%. Not much, however, given the depreciation of the ruble and the massive rise in price, is encouraging. Analysts talk about potential 1,76 million new cars that will be sold by the end of 2021. By the way, about the same volumes were sold in Russia in 2005 and 2010. In the "richest" 2008 and 2012 years, it was possible to sell almost 3 million cars.
Source: drom.ru
This growth in sales is doubly surprising.
On the one hand, the real incomes of Russians have obviously fallen, and on the other, the average price of a new car in the country has grown to 2 million rubles. Two different-vector events should pull sales down. Experts attribute this situation to several reasons.
First, the effect of deferred demand and anxious expectations. Many buyers waited a long time for the right moment to buy - constraints and economic instability interfered. Now everyone knows that cars will go up in price for at least another year and for some consumers this is a clear signal to go to a car dealership.
Secondly, many compatriots have made significant savings on closed borders. Are they not allowed into Europe and the United States? Let's take a car loan and add the finances saved on vacation.
The most important reason for the massive rise in prices for cars was the shortage, which will be overcome only by the middle of next year. There are a lot of reasons - a shortage of semiconductors, a rise in prices due to inflation of rolled metal and disruption of world production lines.
Let's start with semiconductors.
In the past year, carmakers around the world went into a pandemic lockdown. Someone for a few weeks, and someone failed for a couple of months. The automakers rightly decided to save money and canceled a large part of orders for semiconductors from third-party companies. As you know, a modern car is simply stuffed with electronics and this requires several silicon "stones" for one car at once. Companies involved in semiconductor growing were not particularly upset with the canceled orders and quickly redesigned for household appliances, computers and smartphones. And when the demand for carmakers increased, there were no vacant production sites. And the very process of growing ultrapure silicon / germanium crystals cannot be started quickly.
As a result, the winners were those with the processor stock and good connections with the manufacturers. Now these are auto concerns from South Korea. But Europe, and even more so Russia, was not lucky - there are few electronic components in warehouses, and there are not a lot of own manufacturers. In our country, by the way, processors for cars are not produced at all.
As a result, Volkswagen, Ford, Toyota, Honda, Chrysler and Nissan have already stopped conveyors around the world since the beginning of the year. Some companies have seriously simplified the equipment of their cars, trying not to lose market share. For example, they replaced climate control, which requires the simplest electronic brains, with a conventional air conditioner.
The original domestic products of AvtoVAZ, of course, in expensive trim levels did not escape this fate.
Source: drivenn.ru
The price of rolled metal products also contributed to the increase in a similar way. It's simple - if steel rises in price because of cheap money, then metallurgists will rewrite the price tags for domestic consumers. The general decline in trading activity caused interruptions in the supply of auto components to the conveyor. A car is a purely global product, and no country produces such equipment only from its own components.
In Russia, the shortage of cars caused not only a rise in prices, but also an openly predatory behavior of car dealers.
On the models of the most popular cars, sellers wind up from 100 thousand to 2-2,5 million rubles. The scheme is simple to the point of impossibility - you simply cannot purchase a car without the options imposed by the dealer. For example, noise insulation, rugs, mudguards, alarms, deflectors and tinting can cost up to 250 thousand. At the same time, their real price does not exceed 50-70 thousand rubles.
The most surprising thing is that there is nothing that automakers can do about it. Say, yes, we know the problem, but we are not able to influence the sellers. It came to selling places in line for the most popular models. For example, for 60-70 thousand rubles you can buy the seat of the first-order buyer Skoda Octavia, the cost of which exceeds 2 million. The raisin of the deal is that the car is ordered in advance and is deprived of most of the dealer's options.
Some companies tried to organize direct online sales according to the scheme "pay directly to the plant - you pick up the car from the dealer." For example, Hyundai had something similar - the carmaker only issued an invoice from above for 50 thousand rubles for delivery to the dealership nearest to the buyer. But it does not work - dealers are not stupid to lose free margin and simply sabotaged the initiative. As a result, everyone is happy, except for the customer who chronically overpays.
If we do not take into account the meager domestic car market and weak competition, then to some extent this situation is provoked by the absence of the institution of business reputation in our country. Such boorish behavior of car dealers and indulgence on the part of the manufacturer has no response from the consumer. Dealers with draconian markups are breaking sales records, which means that people vote for it with a ruble.
The period of frantic markups will pass. And everyone will forget everything. But it will pass to break out again next time.
Information