Confrontation with Russia and China
Photo: NZ Defense Force
We have already written about the problems that have arisen in Washington in connection with the withdrawal of American units from Afghanistan in some detail. The loudly announced event, unexpectedly for the United States, turned into a serious headache for the Pentagon. It would seem that there is nothing easier than transferring units from one country to another, or, in general, returning them to the territory of the United States.
Let me remind you that the main official reason for the withdrawal of troops was announced that the tasks of the invasion were completed, and Afghanistan is quite capable of building a democratic state on its own. However, everyone understood that the conclusion was a forced measure. The protracted operation led to the fact that ... the enemy became stronger.
Operation Enduring Freedom began in October 2001. And it became the longest ever that the United States has ever led overseas.
And it costs a lot already. I'm not talking about dollars. And about the lives of Americans. With all the attempts to somehow protect their soldiers and officers from open clashes, the Americans lost about 2300 people in Afghanistan. And if we add more than 20000 "three hundredths" here, then the main reason for the withdrawal of troops becomes clear.
Unexpected Challenges Associated with Changing International Relations
When the withdrawal operation was planned, the main goal of the Pentagon was not the withdrawal of American troops from the region. The main goal was to withdraw the soldiers to a calmer country, where American soldiers would feel safe. But at the same time, the US army must be in tactical proximity to Afghanistan in order to be able to return in a short time if necessary.
It is clear that even a relatively small contingent of Americans located in a country is a guarantee that the United States has the ability to directly influence relations between countries in the region. Even Washington's declared enemies of America will think a hundred times before using military force against this military base. Simply because it will actually be a declaration of war on the United States.
So, traditionally, the region is in the zone of interests of all global players at once. There are the interests of the United States, there are the interests of the PRC, there are the interests of the Russian Federation. Central Asia is the navel of the Earth, through which the main routes connecting the East and West traditionally passed. If we add to this the large hydrocarbon deposits in neighboring countries, then everything falls into place.
What happened next?
And then what happened was that the American presidents, who had ruled the United States earlier, could not even dream in a nightmare. Money, especially the power of the world currency, military strength, competent diplomatic pressure and pro-American lobbies within countries - this is the basis for the success of the United States. They perfectly implemented the ancient principle of divide and conquer. They put pressure on China while Russia was silent. They pressed on Russia while China was silent.
But something went wrong.
Russia and China "unexpectedly" became friendly countries. The leaders of these states no longer use "diplomatic language" in answering journalists' questions; they speak directly about the friendship of the two countries and indicate that, in the opinion of the Americans, they are enemies of the United States with all the ensuing consequences. And the Americans cannot divide them. I think that in the near future this is the main task of American diplomacy.
China and Russia beautifully herded a donkey into a stall
We often talk about the intrigues of the Americans, who have learned to skillfully create situations when other countries do what the United States needs, while considering these actions to be a blessing for their states. They are truly masters of creating the “right international climate”. Moreover, even when the governments of these countries understand that everything turned out completely different from what they were told in Washington, it is no longer possible to return everything back.
Today in Central Asia we see a picture exactly the opposite. The Americans simply have nowhere to withdraw their troops. There are no countries in Central Asia that would be outside the spheres of influence of China or Russia. Moreover, there are no countries in Central Asia that would benefit from cooperating with the United States. The military power of Russia is comparable, and in the ground component it surpasses the US army. Economically, China is much more promising than the United States.
So, in total, these close neighbors are not inferior to the Americans. And the fact that they are neighbors becomes the main factor in the fact that quarreling with them is stupid. You can always ask a rich and strong neighbor for a loan or for help when "hooligans run over." And the guys from the "village behind the lake" may not be in time or get scared. Nothing personal, just a desire to survive and live a normal, calm life.
The American donkey himself fell into the same trap that he, along with the elephant, built for others for many years. As in a meat-packing plant. He has one open path - to the slaughter. Or stand still, or return, or go forward into the slaughter. And all these paths lead to failure. That is why the donkey "ia" will be heard now near the dragon's palace, now near the bear's den. Maybe someone will hear the plaintive donkey singing ...
American diplomacy is at an impasse
The situation I wrote about above took a long time to create. This is not to say that this was not seen in Washington. In the materials that were published by VO earlier, this was mentioned. True, the understanding was not advertised. Diplomacy doesn't like noise. For example, here's a quote from the May issue of The Wall Street Journal:
“According to a number of military and Biden administration officials, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are preferred, which border Afghanistan and could become a springboard for easy access. However, the significant Russian presence in the region, the expansion of the Chinese presence and tensions between these powers and Washington complicate plans to deploy bases in Central Asia. ”
There is a person in Russia whose words cannot be trusted, but must be believed. Simply because he possesses such a volume of information that even the president does not have. This man is the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin. A quote from his interview with the RIA News"I will give below:
"Obviously, when deciding to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, the United States government would not want to lose control over this territory and is hatching an intention to place at least some of the resources that they have today in Afghanistan, in neighboring countries."
This is for the information of the Americans. Guys, we all know perfectly well and "help" to solve this problem. For the benefit of Russia.
But there was one more thing for those whom we will help:
“We understand and even have information that such attempts are being made and will be made. And we very much hope that not only partners, but also allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization will not agree to this. "
The Americans will pay special attention today to Kazakhstan. It is enough that the US Special Representative for Reconciliation in the Islamic Republic Zalmay Khalilzad is actively working in this country. During his visit, Khalilzad did not even hide the goals of the Americans. He actively pushed the Kazakh leader to conclude an agreement on a military base.
But, the prospects for such cooperation are rather vague. Good relations with both Russia and China are extremely important for Kazakhstan. It is not excluded that in the near future Nur-Sultan will even cool down relations with the EU for the sake of maintaining ties with China and the Russian Federation. Yes, the Kazakhs have little choice - a crane in the sky or ... exactly the same crane in their hands.
Subtotals
The United States today is faced with a problem that it has created itself. The confrontation with Russia and China led to the beginning of the systematic squeezing of the United States from Central Asia. The Middle East, where the US is strong enough, is the next stage.
The main task of US diplomacy today is to maintain influence in this region. By any means. But, the Chinese and Russians "knocked the chair out from under" Anthony Blinken and his subordinates. To be honest, I feel sorry for the American diplomats, accustomed to the fact that they are always "chief executives," as Zadornov said.
Having won, as the results of the NATO summit showed, in Europe, where the leaders of the countries easily “fell under Washington,” the Americans lost in Central Asia. And it is not yet clear how such a change in the alignment will affect international relations. Putin and Biden met for the first time as heads of state.
It is understandable that Biden was not a serious opponent for Putin in a one-on-one conversation. It seems to me that there was no such meeting. The collective Biden played against the Russian leader. But I think this option was calculated by us.
Let's look at the results of the meeting ...
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