Herd immunity fiasco: Russians waited for the third wave of COVID-19
© 2015 Christian Emmer
Covid is not terrible
Since June 10, the situation with coronavirus infection has sharply deteriorated in Russia.
The daily growth rate has exceeded 10 thousand infected, and there is every reason to believe that this is not yet the peak of the incidence. In the capital, the situation is worst of all - an outbreak of infection has returned Muscovites to the December pandemic levels.
We and the whole world have already begun to get used to COVID-19, but the summer situation is not typical.
First, the virus picks up steam in dry, warm weather under sunlight, which should be detrimental to the parasite.
Secondly, Russia meets him in a state of full combat readiness - the reserve of beds is sufficient, and the doctors have already learned how to cope with the infection. The only problem is that Russians stubbornly refuse to vaccinate. The coronavirus turned out to be not terrible for the overwhelming majority of the country's population. At least psychologically. The consequences of vaccination are much worse.
В stories with the vaccine and the Russians are full of paradoxes. The country was the first in the world to register an antiquated "Sputnik V" last year, and by the beginning of the summer of 2021, only 10% of the population supplied two components of the vaccine! At the same time, it takes six or even eight times more to create herd immunity.
Of course, those who have had coronavirus will also contribute, but there are no exact figures regarding the share of Russians with natural antibodies.
And most likely it won't.
First, any studies on large-scale samples do not provide an accurate picture.
And, secondly, the immunity of the ill person is a very ephemeral ability. Doctors still don't know how long it can last. Simply because the research time is short - a little over one and a half years. The infection is relatively new, and all data is received in real time. That is why it is most correct to form collective immunity by vaccination. But they don't think so in Russia. At least some of the remaining 90% are unvaccinated.
Source: Mos.ru
Here are some interesting statistics.
About 10% of citizens who received the required two doses of the vaccine are mentioned above.
A logical question will be - is it a lot or a little?
In the world ranking, Russia is on ... 57th place in this parameter! Moreover, on June 15, our country is in sixth place in terms of the number of cases. Over the entire time of the pandemic, more than 127 thousand Russians died, and we are already the fifth in mortality in world statistics. All of these numbers are not encouraging given the current outbreak of COVID-19. In terms of the daily growth rate of the infected, we are in a specific company with Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Iran. Recall that these countries have to purchase the vaccine for foreign currency from the leftovers after the countries of the first magnitude.
In Russia, meanwhile, citizens do not recognize any statistics. One of the reasons why people stubbornly refuse to get vaccinated is the lack of faith in the effectiveness of vaccination. Say, there is no panacea for COVID-19, and come what may.
No matter how trite it sounds, let's get back to the entertaining statistics.
Take Israel, for example. According to the official authorities, the Israelis have almost achieved herd immunity - the proportion of citizens who received at least one dose of the vaccine is more than 60%. Israel actually holds the palm, second only to Bhutan with its 64% vaccinated. Tel Aviv lifted most of the pandemic restrictions at the end of February and now no more than 50 people are detected every day. As they say in respected circles, the correlation is obvious.
Vaccine apartment
There are countries in the world that are chronically lacking in anticancer vaccines. For different reasons. For example, India simply does not have time to supply vaccinations in the required volumes. As a result, Indian doctors used about 200 million doses (not identical to the number of vaccinated) of Johnson & Johnson, Moderna and Pfizer / BioNTech vaccines. In terms of the proportion of vaccinated, the billionth population of India is far from the world's top, but this is not the fault of the irresponsible citizens of the country.
The situation is similar with China. More than 420 million vaccinations have been made in the country, and this is not much compared to the 1,5 billion population. But Beijing managed to organize its own citizens into a real antique army. Decades of China's struggle with respiratory syndromes of varying severity have already formed herd immunity. Not in the blood, but in the minds of the Chinese.
The Russian Federation now has everything for a full-fledged vaccination against COVID-19. There are several vaccinations to choose from (although Sputnik V is still the most common). You can easily find the nearest vaccination point or hop on the vaccination bus, which now even runs through the villages. It is possible, after all, to win an apartment and a car in Moscow after an injection! Compare this to the possibilities of one of the millions of poor families somewhere in the suburbs of Mumbai or Delhi.
After that, 10% of those vaccinated in Russia look like at least a mockery. We laugh at scientists, in particular, at Denis Logunov and his team. Sputnik V has become a real world breakthrough. Serious peer-reviewed scientific publications have confirmed 90% of the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine. This, by the way, puts the achievement of Logunov's team on a par with foreign vaccines from Johnson & Johnson, Moderna and Pfizer / BioNTech. A mockery in numbers: with 90% efficiency, 90% of Russians at the moment "Sputnik V" is simply not needed.
Source: mos.ru
We laugh at others.
Behind the reluctance to get the vaccine, which is within walking distance, hides elementary selfishness. People believed that over the past year and a half they had "definitely been ill" and did not want to hear about any injections. The arguments are different. “I do not tolerate vaccinations well”, “It's all a conspiracy of the state”, “The vaccine does not help”, “I am young and can easily tolerate covid” and the like. Most significant:
"My cousin's nephew's maternal grandfather was paralyzed right after the injection - you have to think a hundred times more before agreeing to the vaccine."
Inner unconscious self-love simply overshadows all arguments for collective good. We do not understand or do not want to understand that everyone who is not vaccinated is an element of the transmission of the virus to another. Even if not sick. Like in the domino effect, only such a COVID dissident can put several fellow citizens in a hospital bed at once. And they are a few more, and so on. Something similar happened in Moscow and the Moscow region.
Despite the fact that Sobyanin announced about 50% of the population with immunity (mainly those who have recovered), more than 5 thousand infected are recorded in the city every day. Now this situation is being gradually extrapolated to the whole of Russia. This has already happened twice, if you remember.
What will happen next?
In 3-4 weeks, we expect a surge in mortality. The state will naturally come to new restrictions. Probably, new variants of the coronavirus will appear in Russia, already ours, homegrown. In the end, we ourselves create a wide field for mutation for SARS-CoV-2. Developed vaccines may not be as specific to "novelties" as they are to classic viruses.
Now immunologists are afraid that herd immunity will require 80% of the population with antibodies. And if we come to this, it will be in 2022.
In the end, the question remains - where to get so many apartments and cars for those who are ready to deliver the vaccine?
Information