What to expect from the meeting between "stubborn" Putin and "cunning" Biden
In the global political field, everyone is waiting for a meeting between the presidents of Russia and the United States, which may become the starting point for the formation of the future world order. Over the past year, relations between the two great powers have escalated more and more and by the spring have become the most tense since the end of the Cold War. The peak of tension reached in March, in connection with the demonstrative preparation by Ukraine, incited by the United States, a provocation in the Donbass in order to drag Russia into a military conflict.
US pressure
Everything went to the outcome planned by the United States, Biden even on March 17 called Putin a "killer", provoking him to retaliate. Putin coolly skipped this and offered to hold an online conference with Biden, but the Americans refused.
Further, completely unpredictable steps followed on the part of Russia, it accepted the challenge and demonstrated its readiness to enter into a military conflict not only with Ukraine, but also with NATO, having transferred two combined-arms armies and three airborne divisions to the western borders. The demonstration of strength and decisive actions by Russia forced the United States to back down: they did not even dream of directly confronting the Russian troops and at the same time losing Ukraine.
Having instructed Ukraine to curtail the preparation of the provocation, Biden, on his own initiative, unexpectedly called Putin on April 13 and offered to continue the dialogue on strategic stability, making it clear that the United States would resolutely defend its national interests in response to Russia's cyber invasion and election interference. He stressed the US commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, expressing concern about the sudden build-up of Russian military forces on Ukraine's borders and urging Russia to de-escalate. At the same time, he reaffirmed the desire for stable and predictable relations with Russia in accordance with the interests of the United States and proposed a meeting to discuss the full range of issues faced by the countries.
After waiting, Putin agreed to hold the meeting, and the formation of the agenda began with "indirect messages" to each other, what the parties would like to discuss and in what way. From the side of the president and the US departments "tough signals" of intimidation of Russia with an inevitable confrontation with the West rained down, and if Russia agrees to the US conditions, then confrontation can be avoided. Biden made it clear in every possible way that he was going for a tough and impartial conversation with Putin and intends to "tell him what I want him to know."
If Biden and his team counted on tough American domination, they were deeply mistaken. Putin accepted the challenge and began to give his "indirect messages", the essence of which was to defend Russia's national interests, including the interests in the post-Soviet space.
Position of the Russian side
Putin gave his first answer in his Address to the Federal Assembly on April 21, in which he recalled "Sherkhan and small Tabaki, howling in order to appease their sovereign," in connection with the custom in the West for any reason, and most often without every reason to cling to Russia.
The fact is that Putin's statement took place against the background of the imposition of sanctions by the United States on April 15 against the Russian national debt and the expulsion of Russian diplomats by the Czech Republic on the absurd accusation of Russia's involvement in the explosion of Czech ammunition depots. Putin stressed that
“… If someone perceives our good intentions as indifference or weakness, and he himself intends to finally burn or even blow up these bridges, he should know that Russia's response will be asymmetrical, swift and harsh. The organizers of any provocations that threaten the fundamental interests of our security will regret their deeds as they have not regretted anything for a long time. "
“I hope that no one will think of crossing the so-called red line in relation to Russia. And where it will take place, we will determine in each specific case ourselves ”.
Thus, for the first time, it was announced about the "red lines", which Russia will not allow anyone to cross.
In his message, Putin once again urged the United States to discuss issues related to strategic weapons and ensuring global stability in order to create an environment of conflict-free coexistence, agreeing with Biden's call to enter into a dialogue on strategic stability.
In his speech at the Victory Day parade, Putin emphasized for the first time that
"In the most difficult time of the war, in the decisive battles that determined the outcome of the struggle against fascism, our people were alone",
reminding us that Russia alone is capable of confronting a serious adversary.
At a meeting of the Russian organizing committee "Victory" on May 20, the president directly stated that the West has always held back Russia and now supports the glorification of neo-Nazis in the post-Soviet space, and Russia will not allow revision of the memory of the Great Patriotic War and will rebuff the slanderers.
There, for the first time, a harsh rebuke sounded:
“Someone even dares publicly to say that it’s unfair that Russia owns the riches of a region like Siberia, to only one country ... All of us are trying to bite or bite off something from us - but they should know that we will knock our teeth out everyone, so that they cannot bite, and the guarantee of this is the development of the armed forces. "
The sequel followed at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 4, where he stunned everyone by announcing the completion of the first string of Nord Stream 2. He said that, despite all the sanctions, Russia guarantees gas supplies to Europe, and they will grow, including through Ukraine. At the same time, he stressed that Russia has gold and foreign exchange reserves of over $ 600 billion, and the size of the National Welfare Fund is $ 159 billion, and these reserves continue to increase. That is, Russia feels confident economically and is not afraid of Western pressure.
Even more unexpected and harsh was Putin's interview on June 9 to the Russia 1 TV channel, which was immediately announced in the evening. the news... Using the example of Ukraine, he showed that Russia will not allow infringement of the rights of the Russian population anywhere, no laws on "indigenous peoples" will stop Russia, and she will find a way to give a hand to presumptuous neo-Nazis.
The statement was made even more harsh about the inadmissibility of moving the NATO infrastructure towards the Russian borders, since this threatens the security of Russia and its citizens. Putin emphasized the undesirability and inadmissibility of Ukraine's joining NATO, since at the same time the flight time of American missiles becomes critical and Russia considers it unacceptable. The President unambiguously recalled how the United States felt when deploying Russian missiles in Cuba, thereby making it clear that Russia could repeat the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) if the Americans crossed the red lines established by Russia.
Parrying possible attacks by Americans towards Russia for protecting human rights, Putin recalled with what gross violations the elections in the United States were held and how unprecedented repression is now unleashed against thousands of Trump supporters with the institution of many criminal cases.
The Russian military also made serious warnings, a representative of the General Staff of the Russian army said on June 11 that Russia at any cost would not allow Ukraine to join NATO and capture Belarus, that the armed forces were ready to take any measures, including exceptional ones, to neutralize potential threats. Russia will never allow the deployment of American bases in its underbelly - in Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia, and will take any measures, up to and including those similar to the Cuban missile crisis.
Suddenly, the already forgotten former Putin aide in the Ukrainian direction Surkov woke up and declared in unison with the military that Ukraine would have to be returned by force - military, special services, political, diplomatic or "soft power", without specifying which one.
Maneuvers of the West
One of the goals of Biden's team is to rebuild relations with its European allies. In this regard, meeting Germany halfway, he announced the inexpediency of imposing sanctions against Nord Stream 2, disregarding the opinion of the Eastern European limitrophes and Ukraine. Germany also quickly responded to the steps taken by Russia, declaring that it did not see the prospect of Ukraine's membership in NATO, and drew red lines for Ukraine. The US administration immediately denied a meeting between Biden and Zelensky before the summit in Geneva, meaning to bring the results of the meeting to it after the fact. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg forgot about his recent threats to Russia and started talking about the need for a Russia-NATO dialogue to work out agreed decisions.
Biden, nevertheless, is looking for ways to put pressure on Russia and during his visit to Great Britain signed a new Atlantic Charter with Prime Minister Johnson on June 10, similar to the charter signed by Roosevelt and Churchill in August 1941 against Nazi Germany and united the anti-Hitler coalition around it. ... The Western countries are supposed to join the new charter, and thus signals are sent to Moscow that it will have to confront the united front of the “civilized world”.
What are the political movements of the parties talking about?
The balance of power in the world has seriously changed, the United States is brewing serious economic problems, and it can no longer act as the sole global hegemon, it has to retreat, reckoning with the increased influence of China and Russia. China has practically caught up with the Americans in terms of economic potential, Russia is already the sixth economy in the world and is building up its potential, besides, it has made a qualitative leap in the creation of a new generation of weapons and really threatens the security of the United States.
Fight on two fronts - against China and Russia, the United States will not succeed, it will not have enough strength. The Americans need a respite to regroup their forces, they are ready to compromise and are looking for possible ways to maintain their dominance in the world, which is already very problematic. On the one hand, the United States needs to prevent a military-political alliance between Russia and China, which is beginning to acquire specific features (Russia is already engaged in China's air defense system), on the other, not to miss the captured bridgeheads in the post-Soviet space, especially in Ukraine. All this is hardly possible to realize.
In this regard, bargaining is now possible for three hegemons and the implementation of agreed red lines on the division of spheres of influence, which speaks of the maturing of "New Yalta".
How the meeting can end
Russian financial and economic experts believe that Biden's team agrees with the idea of creating three currency zones under the formal domination of globalists led by the IMF and the formation of "green energy" in order to reduce the influence of energy resource owners and impose costs on them to combat environmental pollution.
Putin reacted to this with his statements very clearly: he does not object to currency zones, the IMF's domination still needs to be dealt with, Russia will not give up its national interests and will defend the post-Soviet space, and on the “green agenda” it is necessary to sit down and discuss, all this is still far away from implementation. In this situation, the "decisive" statements of Ukraine and its importance in European politics can only cause a grin; when making decisions, the opinions of this "six" on the international field will not be asked, they will simply be presented with the decision made.
Everything will be decided by the great powers. Much will depend on how willing Putin and Biden are to compromise. It is unlikely that specific decisions will be made at the upcoming meeting.
When a compromise is reached, in all likelihood, an agreement in principle will be reached on future approaches to the division of spheres of influence and instructions will be given to working groups to work out this issue in the near and distant future.
If the parties do not make any concessions, the confrontation will only intensify.
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