Military Review

"Year of the Planet": What Could Be Worse Than Such a Crisis? If only war

17

About solutions ...



Russian experts, more precisely, scientists from the leading academic center - the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, presented on Monday the Year of the Planet yearbook, which covered the dramatic 2020. It was not in vain that the Institute received the name of Yevgeny Primakov - the best premiere in our modern stories, which managed to bring Russia out of default on a long-term growth trajectory.

The traditional political economic collection, which has been published for almost three decades, this time differs from the previous ones both in its efficiency and unexpectedly full coverage of data on the coronavirus year. The conclusions drawn by the team of authors as a result of a deep, despite the pace, analysis of world politics and economy, many can not only disappoint, but even scare.


And this despite the fact that the way out of the economic recession, which everyone is waiting for, according to IMEMO specialists, is likely in the next year or two. Nevertheless, as noted in two key articles of the collection devoted to the global and Russian economy in 2020, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics. Sci., Deputy Director of the IMEMO RAS for scientific work Sergey Afontsev (pictured), this can no longer change the dire consequences of both the COVID-19 pandemic itself and the measures taken to combat it.

Scientists were most alarmed by the very fact that in the face of a pandemic, instead of the consolidation of the world community, there was an even greater shift towards extremely dangerous destructive tendencies. In IMEMO they are very accurately designated as "national-protectionist" and "selfish-pragmatic" guidelines.

The realities of 2020, and after it the beginning of 2021, are “mask diplomacy” and “vaccine geopolitics”. With all the lockdowns and border overlaps, the coronavirus year has become a year of exacerbation of a number of conflicts, and not always of a local or regional scale.

And those who decide


At the same time, the decline in world GDP by 3,5% - unprecedented since the Second World War, was accompanied by the collapse of entire sectors of the economy, the recovery of which could take years and even not take place at all.

Some had hopes that the pandemic itself would make it possible to remove many long-standing problems from the agenda. However, as Sergei Afontsev noted rather harshly than sadly, in reality it is that pandemic problems simply overlap and complement those that have not been resolved before.

At the same time, IMEMO specialists were puzzled by the striving of a number of world leaders for demonstrative independence and a complete rejection of the opportunity to learn from experience, no matter how successful it turns out in relation to the same pandemic.

Even the fact that President D. Trump, the first Republican after R. Nixon and J. Ford, held office for only one term, can be considered indicative in this regard. And to eliminate the consequences of the coronavirus crisis, which Trump did not wait in the White House, most likely it will take a very long time.

But the preconditions for overcoming the crisis, according to IMEMO RAN experts, already exist, and it will be necessary to start not with warming up the economy with cash injections, which has already shown its low efficiency, but with minimizing the deferred costs that were caused by quarantines and lockdowns.

Simply put, we are talking about the need to help those who have suffered the most, without trying to turn into locomotives those who simply really made money from the crisis. The notorious breakthroughs - "technological" or even "ecological", for which the crisis allegedly paved the way, is a deliberate path to a dead end.

About regions and costs



Russia, according to Sergei Afontsev's estimates made for the collection, in which, by the way, he is by no means alone, did not endure the coronavirus shock as hard as, for example, the United States or the European Union. However, China, in many ways, in general, got off with something like a slight fright.

However, it will be most difficult for the domestic economy to overcome the imbalances that have arisen due to the originality of anti-crisis measures, both in the sectoral and regional terms. Concerning the industries, the corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences drew attention to a very unfavorable tendency to be locked into a kind of circle of raw materials and financial sectors of the economy.

This approach not only aggravates the process of Russia's return to the position of a raw material appendage. At the same time, in fact, an end is put on the future development of a number of promising, but poorly supported by the state industries, especially those related to infrastructure and the environment, as well as small and medium-sized businesses in general.

Regionally, due to the pandemic, there was a return to the situation of the 90s, when the donor regions were in a clear minority. Indeed, despite the crises and permanent sanctions, by 2019, only in 16 Russian regions did expenditures noticeably exceed revenues. And by the end of 2020, such regions became the majority: 57 out of 85.

Moreover, the crisis, oddly enough, hit the raw material regions most painfully, such as Kuzbass, Bashkiria, the Tyumen region and the Yamalo-Nenets district. The budget deficit there ranged from 14 to 20,7%. However, in the technological and industrial Udmurtia, the Chelyabinsk Region and the Perm Territory, the situation with the budgets is not much better - from 11 to 16% in deficit.

About reserves and income


The practice of inter-budget transfers helped very little. And the practice of actively using accumulated reserves in Russia has almost forgotten, which is extremely worrisome to Deputy Director of IMEMO Sergei Afontsev.

He spoke on this occasion bitingly, but absolutely justifiably -

- If funds from the National Welfare Fund are not spent during such a crisis, then for what case do we save them at all?

- What could be worse than such a crisis?
If only war?
So if we reserve reserves in case of war, we must say so about it.

Sergei Afontsev prefaced this emotional speech with a reminder that the United States directed up to 5,5% of the annual budget in monetary terms to anti-crisis measures, not being afraid of a 2,5% increase in public debt.

Russia has poured into its economy, above all, into the so-called structure-forming enterprises, no more than 2,5% of the budget. At the same time, there was no question of any increase in the debt burden. Moreover, the same NWF even grew by another 2020% in 5.

The key conclusion regarding the global economy, and as a consequence - and politics: the pandemic only sharply exacerbated the accumulated problems and intensified competition between the leading centers of power.

COVID-19 has become, in fact, a powerful factor in shaping a new global economic and political reality.
Author:
Photos used:
primamedia.ru, imemo.ru
17 comments
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  1. Anachoret
    Anachoret 20 May 2021 15: 10
    +10
    Egyptian war, famine and executions)

    for good, if you do not want to accelerate inflation and pump up the economy with cheap loans)

    invest point money in strategically important industrial projects) restore your seed bank to begin with)) bring microelectronics to mind and other high-tech industries and at the same time create incentives for the sale of these products in order to enter a competitive stream)) create competitive leasing for your aircraft industry, etc.) she will develop herself without the crooked Manturovs)
    otherwise it all comes down to the accumulation of fnb and then distributing it to their own inept managers, but close to the body)
    1. Intruder
      Intruder 20 May 2021 15: 34
      +7
      restore your seed bank to begin with))
      but there is a real possibility (there are programs and concepts ...) to restore it from what and how !? Or again, how to throw lards into the pipe ..., then what is the point of spending on this bank?
      bring microelectronics to mind
      By whom and with what, as well as the first point, where to get the appropriate personnel and equipment, few people have a factory at 10-12 nm. technical process, at least ... now it will be so easy to sell to the Russian Federation, without the possibility of falling under sanctions, in order to bring and even release civilian electronics even for the domestic market .., it is now easier to buy from TSMC, they will also make a discount on mass production , so that the microelectronic "steam locomotive" has long gone, without a way to return to the "departure station" in the 90s, one had to think ..., now the maximum: only sell weapons and hydrocarbons, and nothing more! crying
    2. Lech from Android.
      Lech from Android. 20 May 2021 16: 02
      +9
      I immediately remember Lenin ... Kovid only aggravated the situation.
      The general crisis of capitalism is an all-round crisis of the world capitalist system as a whole, characterized by wars and revolutions, the struggle between dying capitalism and growing socialism. The general crisis of capitalism covers all aspects of capitalism, both economics and politics. It is based on the ever-increasing disintegration of the world economic system of capitalism, on the one hand, and the growing economic power of those who have fallen away from

      The Chinese are good fellows ... they embody the precepts of the classics of political economy with brilliance.
      1. Snail N9
        Snail N9 20 May 2021 16: 36
        +1
        These experts are so funny. They do not see at close range that the world behind the scenes has already for several years headed for the creation of agglomerations with their own above state laws and even their own "money" - crypto. No one sees at close range that in Russia even the constitution was changed for future agglomerations (an article on expanding the rights of individual territorial entities and the creation of production-territorial associations, even if production facilities are located in different parts of the country) ...
        1. depressant
          depressant 20 May 2021 21: 14
          +1
          And I happened to come across such an idea.
          Let's say there is a certain cryptocurrency and a virtual state is created for it by enthusiasts. You can be a citizen of any country, but if you own a certain amount of this type of cryptocurrency, then you will be sent a passport of a citizen of this virtual country. And this passport is as valid as any other. True, what advantages it gives and what protection has not yet been found.
          1. Civil
            Civil 21 May 2021 07: 45
            +3
            The world behind the scenes is to blame for the rise in prices in Russia, but who else? Not greedy oligarchs with Western passports, not managers who bought positions for themselves, not weak-willed people, no. West and aliens from Nubiru.
            1. Lech from Android.
              Lech from Android. 21 May 2021 07: 56
              0
              Announce the list of greedy executives and oligarchs.
              Mishustin said something about this ... but did not name the names. hi
              1. Civil
                Civil 21 May 2021 07: 57
                +4
                Quote: Lech from Android.
                Announce the list of greedy executives and oligarchs.
                Mishustin said something about this ... but did not name the names. hi

                List of Forbes in Russia and the composition of the Government of the Russian Federation at your service. lol
                1. depressant
                  depressant 21 May 2021 09: 44
                  +2
                  From the language removed, colleague Civil! I would add here thieving local princelings, the so-called regional leaders. They are seized, judged, but in their place the same people immediately rise. This looks especially anecdotal in the light of the law just adopted by the Duma on the allegedly involuntary taking of a bribe, kickback, etc., allegedly under the pressure of irresistible external circumstances, which sharply mitigates the punishment. Sometimes you ponder and you can see that the Duma is a theater of the absurd. Of course, it seems that it is impossible to put too much pressure on regional lice, otherwise they will unite and en masse will bite Russia to death, torn apart. And, apparently, there are already such moods among these lice, supported from the outside, which forced the president to make a statement:
                  Someone even dares publicly to say that it is unfair, allegedly, that Russia owns the riches of a region like Siberia, to only one country ... All of us are trying to bite or bite off something from us - but they should know that we will knock our teeth out everyone, so that they cannot bite, and the guarantee of this is the development of the armed forces


                  I have been repeating the danger of cuts in appropriations for armaments here, at the military, for the third year in a row. But the adoption by the Duma of laws mitigating punishment for theft of budget funds is doubly dangerous. A topic worthy of the broadest discussion at VO went unnoticed. But there is no one more terrible than an internal enemy. Due to the presence of parasites stuck to the body of the state, we have the largest gap between the income of a small handful of these very parasites and the main, about 80%, of the mass of the population. No matter what croaks about median incomes. There is no such thing in the world! Not in Africa!
                  And if this idiotic law or amendment is not abolished, now I don’t remember exactly what it is, we have to deal with this, then the "innocent sheep" who have established a disgustingly off-scale corruption background in Russia will take their toll regardless of any weapons.
  2. SERGE ANT
    SERGE ANT 20 May 2021 15: 52
    +8
    - If funds from the National Welfare Fund are not spent during such a crisis, then for what case do we save them at all?
    The National Welfare Fund is part of the federal budget. The fund is intended to become a part of a sustainable mechanism for long-term pension provision of citizens of the Russian Federation. The goals of the National Welfare Fund are to ensure co-financing of voluntary pension savings of citizens of the Russian Federation and to ensure a balance (deficit) of the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation. According to the law, in addition to placing money from the NWF, you can use: to cover the emerging budget deficit - pension or federal.
    When the volume of the fund exceeds 7% of GDP. The Ministry of Finance can invest these surpluses for purposes related to financing the country's economic growth.
    Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
  3. iouris
    iouris 20 May 2021 16: 06
    +3
    It doesn't matter what is called: war, crisis, revolution. The important thing is that after this the old falls and the transition begins. Did you want the best? Or didn't you want to?
    1. Egoza
      Egoza 20 May 2021 16: 11
      +4
      Quote: iouris
      after that, the old falls and the transition begins. Did you want the best?

      They wanted to want something, but the Planet, it seems, will decide everything in its own way and will give humanity a good kick.
  4. Keyser soze
    Keyser soze 20 May 2021 16: 35
    +4
    The economy is most influenced by:

    - lack of corruption and normal and fast justice
    - electronic government and lack of administrative red tape
    - an educational system that provides educated workers

    Everything else is secondary.
  5. 547807955
    547807955 20 May 2021 18: 11
    0
    It doesn't bother me at all against the background of the nation's degeneration, alienation from the church and brainwashing.
    1. agond
      agond 20 May 2021 20: 13
      0
      If China, with their population density, escaped with a slight fright from the coronavirus, this means that the virus is not as terrible as we are told, it is needed for vaccination.
  6. north 2
    north 2 20 May 2021 20: 08
    0
    But is there anything in common in the fact that, for example, the "House of the Russian Diaspora" in France is named after Solzhenitsyn, and this "Institute of World Economy and International Relations" in Russia is named after Primakov? This is me about the merits to Russia of both, so that one could say that whoever smears themselves with what, so gives from them ...
  7. CBR600
    CBR600 24 May 2021 09: 10
    0
    Thank you for clarifying something to us. The NWF is lying around, melting under inflation, and not going anywhere. What does the planet have to do with it, I don't understand.
    In IMEMO they are very accurately designated as "national-protectionist" and "selfish-pragmatic" guidelines.
    ... That's right, there is no need to be afraid of national vectors. And frank pragmatism is a consequence of matriarchy. THIS IS NORMAL. It is not normal that we do not change anything, neither in saving the NATION nor in finishing off the economy (they would kill her unfortunate completely, for the second time and finally (tired of watching these convulsions) for the amusement of the whole world with this NWF). From this position, I do not care about the planet (if that). There is no world, global war and will not be. There will be no global revolutions, capitalism is very protected by social services. programs. The struggle of national companies with trans-national ones is yes, but globalization. But for Uncle Vanya I am a locksmith with a small child and a salary of 40 re, before the lantern for this fight, he is looking for a part-time job, and does not think about the second child.