Military Review

This old, old, new bet

64

Four percent of a dream



The increase in the Central Bank's rate by 0,5 percent at once instead of the 0,25 expected by the majority is actually a resolved issue. So, you can forget about the prospect of bringing the Central Bank's key rate to the inflation rate. And forget, it seems, for a long time.

Few people now, in a period of political instability and weak hopes for a way out of the pandemic, believe in putting elementary order in finances. Also, few people believe in the lifting of the sanctions. Or at least some positive shift in this area.

They even started talking seriously about disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system of international settlements, especially since we simply do not have any real alternative to it. No matter what they say in financial structures and the IT sector. Of course, you can live without SWIFT, or rather survive. But it is unlikely to really compete with the leaders of the world economy.

The status of a banana republic for a country whose military and political power is ranked either second or third in the world is an unenviable prospect. But, alas, it is quite real. However, it is precisely in the financial sphere that Russia has such a status: it practically has no right to even dispose of its own reserves as it wants.

And now it is also strictly limited in terms of borrowing on decent terms. The last batch of sanctions, no matter what we say, hurt our national debt and does not allow us to just leave the debt market, since our reserves are simply "tied" hand and foot, and in the same place where we would like to borrow calmly and further.

And this is by no means just the IMF and the World Bank. This spring, the Central Bank has already taken two consecutive steps to retreat from the 4 percent per annum mark. Namely, it at least corresponds to such inflation, which does not interfere (more precisely, hardly interferes) with the forward movement of the economy.

Don't panic, this is a robbery


It is another matter that a very limited circle of “elite” is credited at such rates as in the Central Bank. However, all this is not a reason for panic, since it seems that neither Europe nor the third world intend to blindly implement the US sanctions against Russia, unlike business, primarily banking - it simply has nowhere to go.

But this only means that a lot of what is now simply costing Russia dearly will be very dear. In principle, another quarter of a percent of the rate hike is nothing more than an attempt to normalize monetary policy.

Over the past year and a half, it, shying away from false softness to demonstrative rigidity, has led to only one thing - there is a lot of money at all not where it is really needed. Why, in general, was it necessary to raise the rate after the economy had passed the peak of inflation? It is almost impossible to understand.

Perhaps the board of the Central Bank, which is increasingly talked about in terms of personnel changes, just wants to remind who is the boss? The answer is - not you, gentlemen bankers. And the most unpleasant thing is that you understand this. But you do nothing to at least try to get away from it.

However, the prospect of falling from one bondage to another is also not encouraging. And it, with the current relations with Chinese business, alas, is quite real. Nevertheless, everyone is ready to say "thank you" for the measures that were taken at the suggestion of the Central Bank, for example, to regulate food prices.

The main thing is that such measures work for a long time. Perhaps this was the impetus for another - and more significant increase in the discount rate. That is, banks, for which the Central Bank rate really means something, make it clear that they will have to pay. On a national scale, the extra 0,25 credit percent is a colossal amount.

A lot of money - it won't seem a little


With a growing rate, sooner or later liquidity difficulties should be resolved. A flywheel of the construction industry, a military order, in the end - measures to support business in connection with the pandemic, about which a little below, all this fits into the current trend of the Central Bank.

And he seems to be like that - money has become too affordable and there is too much of it. The fact that too many are not there at all does not bother the Bank of Russia at all. There are strategists in the same place, let the Ministry of Finance rule the real flows. But the Ministry of Finance just gets the surplus money with such difficulty that one wonders how at least something is financed in our country.


Back in March, the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference that "now" it is necessary to start returning to a neutral monetary policy. She even announced that "neutral" is at the level of 5-6 percent per annum at the key rate.

Mrs. Nabiullina justified the "new turn" of the Central Bank with an unexpectedly rapid rise in prices for goods. Where, in general, did the massive rise in prices come from with the massive impoverishment of the public? Absolutely incomprehensible. Probably, there is nothing more to spend money on.

And it immediately becomes clear that millions of square meters of housing, being commissioned at a frantic pace in Moscow and megalopolises, are bought not by ordinary people and not even happy mortgage holders or participants in the renovation program, but by money aces - as a liquid and expensive asset.

And the prices of goods rise by the collusion of sellers who simply do not care about the problems of buyers. Nevertheless, we will not be afraid of even the harshest criticism of readers, inflation now in a sense can be considered a blessing.

Of course, the benefit is not for the general public, which is already ready to howl from the creeping rise in prices. But the real sector can earn at least something thanks to inflation. Unless, of course, they take it away from him. But more about that - at the end of the article.

Bankers and bankrupts


The Bank of Russia usually minimizes references to sanctions, but it is often said that a weak ruble influences inflation. Having all the possibilities to influence its course, it seems that only Russian bankers can so zealously refuse them.


They are well aware that in the election year budget expenditures will definitely grow, possibly due to the printing of reserves, which is fully justified because of the sanctions. The price of cutting off oil revenues is likely to rise as well, as prices for it are not even planned to go down.

But why, then, right now, few people are fearlessly assessing the prospect of lifting all quarantine restrictions on bankruptcy? After returning from the coronavirus vacation, it threatens very, very many.

And access directly to the not yet highest rate of the Central Bank in our country, as you know, is open only to bankers. They themselves, not counting the top twenty “chosen ones,” are now balancing between license revocation and business closure.

Closing due to complete or almost complete, at best, lack of paying clients. These clients are the same public from which they can take everything away, and without bringing the matter to bankruptcy. How to take away? Taxes, regulated but stubbornly rising tariffs, tough payroll requirements.

The real way out for too many in such a situation is to hide in the shadows, in whole or in part. Or lie under the oligarchs in time. It was the latter, by all indications, that was the global goal of all this confusion with Covid-19? And what other numbers will he have?
Author:
Photos used:
denvic.ru, cbr.ru, triadadaily.com
64 comments
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  1. Far B
    Far B April 28 2021 04: 31
    +20
    So, you can forget about the prospect of bringing the Central Bank's key rate to the inflation rate. And forget, it seems, for a long time
    In general, we can forget about many things. For example, about reaching the normal level of economic development. On reaching the growth of real incomes of the population. In short, about a lot. Patamushta stability must be stable! Didn't live richly - you can't start !!!
    1. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee April 28 2021 04: 47
      +6
      Quote: Dalny V
      Didn't live richly - you can't start !!!

      Like everyone, we are cheerful and gloomy,
      But if you have to choose and the choice is difficult -
      We choose wooden suits,
      People! People!

      For a long time, we will be offered not to lose:
      “Ah,” they will say, “what are you! You haven't lived yet!
      You just have to start! .. "
      Well, and then they will offer: either - or.

      Or beaches, vernissages, or even
      Steamers with filled holds
      Crews, races, parties, voyages,
      Or just wooden suits.

      And they will be merry or gloomy,
      And they will be in the role of evil jesters and good judges,
      But we will be offered wooden suits
      People! People!

      They may even offer us and smoke:
      “Ah,” they will remember, “you haven't smoked for a long time!
      You haven't started living yet! .. "
      Well, and then they will offer: either - or.

      The smoke of a cigarette evokes something
      One puff is more fun than thought.
      Hunt to smoke! How to smoke a hunt!
      But you have to choose wooden suits.

      And they will be so polite and affectionate -
      They will offer a happy life on a dish.
      But we will refuse - and they beat cruelly,
      People! People…
    2. Vladimir_2U
      Vladimir_2U April 28 2021 04: 57
      +7
      Banks in their current form are evil!
      1. Far B
        Far B April 28 2021 05: 05
        +21
        Banks in their current form are evil!
        Not all. Glass with screw cap - nicho so, comfortable laughing .
        1. Grandfather
          Grandfather April 28 2021 05: 41
          +12
          The status of a banana republic for a country whose military and political power is ranked either second or third in the world is an unenviable prospect. But, alas, it is quite real. However, it is precisely in the financial sphere that Russia has such a status: it practically has no right to even dispose of its own reserves as it wants.
          1. The leader of the Redskins
            The leader of the Redskins April 28 2021 06: 11
            +8
            Mrs. Nabiullina justified the "new turn" of the Central Bank ...
            I want to say:
            - Gentlemen, bankers! Come to us - to Russia!
            Not to Moscow or St. Petersburg, but to other regions! We'll sit wherever in a county town (or village), chase seagulls, cook macaros or potatoes, from our garden with broth. If you're lucky, we'll drink some moonshine. Sorry, there is not enough money for cognac. And not only for cognac ...
            And then sit there in the City, everyone. It seems that your walls are mirrored, but you don't see the people ...
            1. Far B
              Far B April 28 2021 06: 27
              +9
              It seems that your walls are mirrored, but you don't see the people.
              so the fact of the matter is that the walls are mirrored))) They are their reflections in them, they see themselves - well-fed and well-to-do.
              1. The leader of the Redskins
                The leader of the Redskins April 28 2021 06: 32
                +4
                Actually, he wrote "glass", but the android lives its own life - just like our bankers!))))
            2. Ingvar 72
              Ingvar 72 April 28 2021 10: 41
              +10
              Quote: Leader of the Redskins
              Mrs. Nabiullina justified the "new turn" of the Central Bank ...

              They really have a looking glass. Another Ellochka talks about the preparation of tin confidence for the elections, this justifies the increase in the rate, although in the EU it is zero even despite the crisis.
              1. Svarog
                Svarog April 28 2021 13: 33
                +4
                Quote: Ingvar 72
                although in the EU it is zero even despite the crisis.

                Well, there is a crisis .. And we have STABILITY!
      2. Svarog
        Svarog April 28 2021 13: 32
        +5
        Quote: Vladimir_2U
        Banks in their current form are evil!

        Capitalism is evil. And banks are the blood of capitalists.
        1. Per se.
          Per se. April 29 2021 07: 42
          +4
          Quote: Svarog
          And banks are the blood of capitalists.
          Banks became not the blood of the capitalists, but their fangs, bloodsucking ghouls of the people's blood. Loan interest in capitalism, in fact, has become a mortal sin, an absolute evil.
      3. Illanatol
        Illanatol April 30 2021 09: 17
        +1
        Banks are the main generators of inflation.
    3. Santa Fe
      Santa Fe April 28 2021 08: 21
      +4
      On reaching the growth of real incomes of the population. In short, about a lot.

      Successful people who have risen to the pinnacle of power make history. Empires are created and destroyed. Winning Wars and Ruling the World

      What humanity exists for

      And you are here again with their incomes of the population, Who should care about this except the population itself ?? History is being made in the Kremlin and degrotic issues are not being resolved how the population lives there, what it eats and what it wants to buy
      1. dauria
        dauria April 28 2021 10: 02
        +14
        And you are here again with your incomes of the population,


        The "population" did not appreciate your irony. Get it now. laughing
        In general, articles about economics in VO are a force. From doctors economic sciences. Previously, these were "Marxists", doctors of philosophical sciences. They explained why communism is more effective. I won’t understand - well, is this economy more complicated than electrodynamics, or quantum physics? They know how to calculate everything in advance, from the collision of electrons to the collision of galaxies.
        And these economists are akin to astrologers ... I don't understand a damn thing.
        1. Roman070280
          Roman070280 April 28 2021 13: 31
          -1
          I won’t understand - well, is this economy more complicated than electrodynamics, or quantum physics? They know how to calculate everything in advance, from the collision of electrons to the collision of galaxies.
          And these economists are akin to astrologers ... I don't understand a damn thing.


          Good remark ..
        2. Illanatol
          Illanatol April 30 2021 09: 21
          0
          I won’t understand - well, is this economy more complicated than electrodynamics, or quantum physics?


          Definitely more difficult. Too many factors influence economic processes that can hardly be mathematically modeled.
          True, there were such people in the West that they thought it possible to calculate and format everything. They called themselves "econometricians". However, the practical implementation of their ideas gave disastrous results (in particular, in Argentina).
          1. dauria
            dauria April 30 2021 11: 55
            +1
            Too many factors affect economic processes

            Hmm. In the microcosm, matter generally behaves unpredictably. "Wherever I want, I fly there." The uncertainty principle. However, they learned how to calculate wave functions. In simple terms, probabilities. A physicist will not say where an electron or a quantum of light will fly after the slit. But as heaps of electrons fly, he will calculate and draw an accurate picture in advance. If not, it will throw out this theory, create another that works.
            And the economists? Fortune-tellers of some sort. The prediction did not come true - well, okay. This, you see, the "factors" prevented. And what about the mathematical apparatus? Compare the math of a piece of waveguide and the formulas of economists. In the first there are three floors of some terms, the names of which, like in a fog, you recall with a shiver. The second have algebra for the fifth grade. Snout dollar multiplied per square kilometer.
      2. Svarog
        Svarog April 28 2021 13: 34
        +4
        Quote: Santa Fe
        History is being made in the Kremlin

        Yes .. the most terrible pages of it are being written.
    4. Svarog
      Svarog April 28 2021 13: 31
      +3
      Quote: Dalny V
      Patamushta stability must be stable! Didn't live richly - you can't start !!!

      Someone started, so you can't tear it off the trough.
    5. bandabas
      bandabas April 28 2021 18: 42
      0
      Elvira just glows laughing ! Yeah....
  2. Gardamir
    Gardamir April 28 2021 07: 09
    +13
    A little sideways, but the Constitutional Court allowed the only housing to be taken away from the debtors.
    1. Pilot
      Pilot April 28 2021 07: 34
      +9
      With a proviso, as I understand it - if square meters exceed housing standards, and then some of the cunning people, except for a mansion of 500 sq.m. in the property there is more and there is nothing, a beggar, there is nothing to repay debts with))
      1. Pilot
        Pilot April 28 2021 09: 49
        +5
        A small addition - back in 2012, the Constitutional Court demanded that legislators prescribe these reasonable square norms that cannot be taken away for debts in court, but things are still there. It seems that the deputies and senators are still trying this on themselves, on their own sheds growing from a poor life. How this resolution of the Constitutional Court will be applied in practice is probably not hard to guess.
    2. bandabas
      bandabas April 28 2021 18: 48
      +1
      Already more sideways. Most of the employees of the enterprises will work during the "non-working days" in May. The impression is that "someone" is not on friendly terms with the head. Complete zero.
  3. Boris55
    Boris55 April 28 2021 07: 52
    -13%
    Everything goes to the fact that the new Duma (this one is simply not in a position) will change the status of the Central Bank. Until then:

    From the federal law on the Central Bank:

    - The Central Bank is a legal entity independent from the state;

    - Only the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has the exclusive right to issue cash and organize cash circulation;

    - Without the permission of the Bank of Russia, the state cannot dispose of property, and even more so the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves;

    - The state is not responsible for the obligations of the Bank of Russia, and the Bank of Russia is not responsible for the obligations of the state;

    - The relationship of currencies is regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, regardless of the government of the Russian Federation;

    - The Bank of Russia has the right to apply for the protection of its interests to international courts, courts of foreign states and arbitration courts;

    - The Bank of Russia in the financial sector can give instructions, regulations and instructions on what needs to be done, both by state governing bodies and legal entities and individuals, and everyone must comply with them unquestioningly;

    - The Bank of Russia is not entitled to provide loans to the Government of the Russian Federation, but it is allowed to lend to the economies of other countries;

    - The Bank of Russia is absolutely not obliged to comply with the orders of the President, the State Duma, the Ministry of Finance and any other government bodies.

    - It is almost impossible to fire the Chairman of the Bank of Russia until his term of office has expired, even if he does his job poorly or simply refuses to comply with government orders.

    - The IMF (International Monetary Fund) is the only structure whose instructions the Central Bank must follow.
    1. Boris55
      Boris55 April 28 2021 08: 08
      -14%
      Before disagreeing (minus) with the above, read the law:

      Federal Law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation"
      from 10.07.2002 N 86-ФЗ

      URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_37570/
    2. Lannan Shi
      Lannan Shi April 28 2021 10: 06
      +17
      Quote: Boris55
      - It is almost impossible to fire the Chairman of the Bank of Russia until his term of office has expired, even if he does his job poorly or simply refuses to comply with government orders.


      Article 5. The Bank of Russia is accountable to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
      The State Duma:
      appoints and dismisses the Chairman of the Bank of Russia on the proposal of the President of the Russian Federation;
      appoints and dismisses members of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia (hereinafter referred to as the Board of Directors) on the proposal of the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, agreed with the President of the Russian Federation;

      The fact that the President and the Duma do not want to change the head of the Central Bank is not a question of impossibility, it is a question of unwillingness. By the way. Naibulina's term of office had already expired. And the fact that our beloved guarantor put it forward again, and the Duma supported it, says only one thing. The activity of the Central Bank is 101% satisfied with both the guarantor and the Duma. Simply put, there is no "independent" financial policy of the Central Bank, and Naibulina obediently and quickly fulfills the Kremlin's decrees. Otherwise, I would have worked at home for a long time, as a janitor. yes
      1. Svarog
        Svarog April 28 2021 13: 36
        +7
        Quote: Lannan Shi
        Simply put, there is no "independent" financial policy of the Central Bank, and Naibulina obediently and quickly fulfills the Kremlin's decrees. Otherwise, I would have worked at home for a long time, as a janitor.

        Naturally ... there is only one watering can.
    3. unaha
      unaha April 28 2021 13: 21
      +5
      "new Duma" - new ?! ))
    4. Evgeny Goncharov (smoogg)
      Evgeny Goncharov (smoogg) April 29 2021 01: 53
      0
      - The IMF (International Monetary Fund) is the only structure whose instructions the Central Bank must follow.

      Tell me how to get drunk on the article number.
  4. Woodman
    Woodman April 28 2021 07: 54
    +5
    Few now, in a period of political instability
    In Russia, "political instability" ???
    1. Boris55
      Boris55 April 28 2021 08: 12
      -14%
      Quote: Lesovik
      In Russia, "political instability" ???

      In Russia - no, but in the USA - yes. The Central Bank is subordinate to the IMF, which is controlled by the United States. The Central Bank is taking all measures to stabilize the US economy.
      1. ximkim
        ximkim April 28 2021 19: 20
        0
        And what are these measures taken by the state of emergency of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation?
    2. Svarog
      Svarog April 28 2021 13: 36
      +3
      Quote: Lesovik
      Few now, in a period of political instability
      In Russia, "political instability" ???

      Political stabilization ... as in some African countries.
  5. nikvic46
    nikvic46 April 28 2021 08: 25
    +8
    Yesterday, on the OTP program, it was seen how the incomes of managers of large enterprises and corporations soared up. And all this in a year of crisis. I am not well versed in economics. But one thing is clear to me: the higher the prices on the international market, the more troubles for the state and for By selling this or that product at market prices, corporations strive to sell the state at the same price. And later it all concerns us.
    1. depressant
      depressant April 28 2021 10: 59
      +7
      Why, in general, was it necessary to raise the rate after the economy had passed the peak of inflation? It is almost impossible to understand.


      Possible.
      Yes, the vast majority of money thrown into the economy during the peak of the epidemic ended up in the pockets of the rich, and this is not only ours. This misfortune is spoken about in all countries. But our misfortune is aggravated by the fact that the naive population, taking advantage of the low interest rate on loans, which the banks were forced to, under pressure from the "good" political authorities, happily climbed to take loans and, naturally, climbed and continues to massively climb into credit bondage. And the economy does not offer, let alone wage increases or new jobs - it does not even offer old ones! The ruin and bankruptcy of many small and medium-sized enterprises is occurring and growing, hence a sharp reduction in the ability of the population to give loans. And when tough collectors appear, and they will certainly appear, since banks, in order to survive, according to the new laws, massively sell the population's credit obligations to collectors, many of whom are former bandits, then the population will howl, become even more embittered than now, and will go out to the square to fight the riot police, serious internal political instability will begin. And this is in the context of the aggravating foreign policy situation. To dampen this process, and raise the rate. As a result, loans will become more expensive for the population, which, according to the government's calculations, should stop many risky ones and reduce internal political tension. Or at least not reinforcing what is already there.
    2. Svarog
      Svarog April 28 2021 13: 38
      +5
      Yesterday, on the OTP program, it was seen how the incomes of managers of large enterprises and corporations jumped up.

      If someone diminishes, another arrives .. this is how capitalism works, but in our case, it arrives at the same people .. and decreases only among the population.
      1. depressant
        depressant April 28 2021 17: 30
        +6
        Yes, this is how modern capitalism works, and we all need to prepare for a crisis that has not passed at all, and, according to leading world experts, is only gaining momentum, will be terrible, extremely destructive and will last at least until 2030. In this regard, the rate of the Central Bank, I believe, will additionally and consistently increase, the people will become poorer. The government is frantically looking for measures to take. He sees a way out in state capitalism. By the way, not only our government sees this.
        1. IS-80_RVGK2
          IS-80_RVGK2 April 28 2021 22: 09
          +1
          Quote: depressant
          and we all need to prepare for a crisis that has not passed at all, and, according to leading world experts, is only gaining momentum, will be terrible, extremely destructive and will last at least until 2030.

          The crisis is not so terrible as its consequences. To hell with him, if we sit out on bread with sawdust and quinoa soup, it’s as if the Third World War didn’t go wrong.
          Quote: depressant
          He sees a way out in state capitalism.

          Such an interesting state capitalism. With sluggish privatization. For example, do you know that the Federal State Unitary Enterprise Mail Erfe is no longer a Federal State Unitary Enterprise?
          1. depressant
            depressant April 28 2021 22: 52
            +4
            Good evening, dear colleague! hi Indeed, the history of capitalism at least in the 20th century shows that the world economy emerged from serious crises through wars. And you are right - anything but war.
            As for the mail, it doesn't matter what happens to it. State capitalism will consist in placing state orders with financing from the state budget at the largest possible number of enterprises important for the economy, including those that have not previously been ordered by the state. This will be done in order to preserve these enterprises for the country, not to let them bend into a crisis. In order to increase the number of jobs, infrastructure enterprises will be created (roads, bridges, ports, berths, docks, warehouses, etc.). But this should have been started a year ago and with the involvement of the local population, not migrants. Meanwhile, big business continues to sabotage participation in such projects. He is offered money, he refuses. The capitalists were given licenses for the extraction of minerals under promises to participate with their own funds in projects important for the state, and now they are refusing to commit. This is a wall. Will Putin be able to break it, that is the question.
            1. Liam
              Liam April 28 2021 23: 02
              -2
              Quote: depressant
              the history of capitalism at least in the 20th century shows that the world economy emerged from serious crises through wars.

              And what a serious crisis provoked 1 world example?
              Or .. the crises of 1929 and 2008, which wars provoked? Or the epic Asian financial crisis of 1997/98
              1. depressant
                depressant April 28 2021 23: 14
                +3
                Colleague Liam, it looks like you have a different version. Will you bring her? I will be very grateful.
                1. Liam
                  Liam April 28 2021 23: 27
                  0
                  Serious crises in the world economy happen every 10 years on average. Completely epic, every 20-30. Do you have so many world wars?)
                  And both world wars began at a time when the economy of the main participants was on a greater rise.
                  1. depressant
                    depressant April 29 2021 00: 13
                    +3
                    A serious argument, of course. However, the nature of wars has changed due to the presence of nuclear weapons. From periodic ones they have passed into the stage of continuous local ones, and at any moment of time there is always some kind of local war going on in the world. However, at the present time, the crisis has taken on the character of a change from the old technological order to a new one that releases a huge amount of labor that must be fed here and now and there is no hope that a sufficient number of jobs will be created very quickly. It is easier to unleash an additional number of local wars, to which each of the belligerent parties will give meaning to a domestic one, that is, with the conscription of the population into the army, sending to the front with the subsequent disposal of an excess number of people in the process of hostilities. After all, capitalism does not bother with moral standards. The danger is that in the conditions set by the current crisis, any newly unleashed local war can turn into a world war. Especially if the aggression starts against our country.
            2. IS-80_RVGK2
              IS-80_RVGK2 April 28 2021 23: 25
              +1
              Quote: depressant
              But this should have been started a year ago and with the involvement of the local population, not migrants.

              Well, where are we now without migrants? With our demographics and lousy spending on science. A lot of things had to be done, and not a year ago, but much earlier. I'm not expecting anything good further. I read here about the projected population decline this year and the hair stood on end. And the security guards do not care, they happily brandish the figures for the growth of mortgage loans.
              Quote: depressant
              Will Putin be able to break it, that is the question.

              So far, I see how Putin consistently breaks through the social sphere with reforms in favor of capital and victories in foreign policy for some reason suspiciously reminiscent of defeats. Sluggish decommunization and other cosplay of the lost Russia.
              1. depressant
                depressant April 29 2021 00: 14
                +1
                Colleague, I grieve with you.
  6. nikvic46
    nikvic46 April 28 2021 12: 48
    +2
    Why is there no understanding between the top and bottom? Is it because we communicate only online, and if there is a need for direct communication, then this is regarded incorrectly.
    1. Svarog
      Svarog April 28 2021 13: 39
      +4
      Quote: nikvic46
      Why is there no understanding between the top and bottom? Is it because we communicate only online, and if there is a need for direct communication, then this is regarded incorrectly.

      Between the poor and the rich there will never be an understanding, even how to communicate.
      1. Mayan
        Mayan 5 May 2021 19: 38
        0
        : see officially since 2010 professionals (+ others with extended action rights) do not listen to non-professionals of all stripes ..
    2. Illanatol
      Illanatol April 30 2021 09: 23
      -1
      Well, it's hard for hard workers to get "offline" to the Bahamas or at least to London. So direct communication does not work drinks
  7. xorek
    xorek April 28 2021 18: 01
    -8
    Well, inflation was different again, and so on. With the current pressure of sanctions, political and, in general, moral ... In Russia, inflation would be 1000% ...
    Or forgot the 90s, many here, although young people do not even know that they had a million salary and it was difficult to buy something on them .. And then the United States was a friend of Russia and EBN called Clinton a friend .. What have you forgotten? And I remember well how drunken Borka shouted to the whole world "God bless America" ​​and so on. The bad is quickly forgotten ..
    Yes, it's hard now, but what kind of stability is there .. And when was life good in Russia? Who will tell me? I am personally in the USSR, but I do not envy my children and grandchildren and I am very worried .. They do not have the main confidence in the future and a sense of security .. So stop whining about the "bloody regime", etc. ..I feel that after Putin someone will come and arrange total terror for all liberals and other scoundrels in politics and economy .. Because Russia has neither the means nor the desire to feed them and listen to them .. But I want to press and cleanse the Fatherland .. Think about this at your leisure, before yelling and whining .. hi
    I said everything ..
    1. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 April 28 2021 22: 14
      0
      Quote: xorek
      Yes, it's hard now, but what kind of stability there is

      Under Brezhnev, there was also stability, although then it was called a little differently. Remind me of how the case ended in the end?
      1. Mayan
        Mayan 5 May 2021 19: 44
        -1
        a lot of secrecy
  8. The comment was deleted.
  9. Sfurei
    Sfurei April 28 2021 19: 22
    -5
    I'm already tired of reading articles where everything is terribly bad and disgusting in my homeland. It’s already scary for my strong mind: maybe I just don’t see what is happening around and where are we going down the hill !? Maybe my assessment of life really shouldn't be taken on faith by me anymore !?
    Gentlemen economists, when will you write objective articles ?? When, for the needs of populism, will you stop writing only about the bad? Here are some examples:
    1. Every two to three weeks you write that the dollar / euro rose, and the ruble again falls / collapsed / failed / depreciated, etc. But there are practically no articles that the ruble returned its positions in two days or a week / month? One gets the impression that the ruble is continuously falling as in the 90s. Yes, it creeps down, but not as you describe.
    2. When the Central Bank lowered the rate, I did not see your articles that good was coming down on us, but everyone wrote that it was good only for banks. Now they are raising the rate, again it is good for the banks. Why don't you write that the Central Bank, by adjusting the rate, supports the economy in the state in accordance with the economic plans for the development of the country.
    3. Where are your articles about the joy for mortgages, that mortgage interest is falling? I have acquaintances in 2007-2008. took out a mortgage at 14,5%. And the other day, relatives took at 6,8%. No, you write that this inflates the mortgage bubble (if my memory serves me that it was the same authors who wrote this in previous articles) and ultimately will lead to a failure in the economy.
    Well, the question is: Why do you write nonsense, for example:
    - "... that millions of square meters of housing, commissioned at a frantic pace in Moscow and megalopolises, are bought not by ordinary people and not even by happy mortgage holders or participants in the renovation program, but by money aces ..." Yes, indeed, people from whom more money buy more, including .h. and real estate. But it is stupid to write that both cars (including used ones) and many meters of odnushki and kopeck pieces throughout the country in the second half of 2020 were bought by oligarchs. You would talk to those who build and sell new buildings. My friends building a microdistrict in the Moscow region say that the people (and not the oligarchs) grab apartments and order, incl. immediately repairs (probably fake, for the oligarchs in odnushki make repairs).
    - "... the prices of goods are growing by the collusion of sellers .." Have you forgotten what you were taught in your economics class, how does the market work and why prices rise? There can be many reasons for this: inflation, seasonality, shortages, flow of goods to another market (i.e. artificial shortages in foreign markets), improper government regulation, etc. etc. and somewhere at the end there is a conspiracy !! But you immediately, categorically write that several freaks of sellers have committed a conspiracy. I would like to ask even rudely: "Did you hold a candle for them?" At the same time, various goods become more expensive - what kind of crowd should have gathered at the Olympic Stadium and started to come to an agreement ??
    Well, at the end I would like to ask: Are you really agitating to go into the shadows ?? Otherwise, how else to perceive your message? ".. The real way out for too many in such a situation is to hide in the shadows, in whole or in part ..." You would better teach others how to work in white and use all possible levers of assistance and opportunities from the state, and not criticize it.
    Help others with your articles, not hype !!
  10. Thomas the Unbelieving
    Thomas the Unbelieving April 28 2021 22: 08
    +3
    1. There is one immutable law in economics: a person works only when he receives funds for his labor for the reproduction of labor, including expenses for his health, education, culture and family maintenance. And only then, instead of Solzhenitsyn's stupid "saving of the people", economic and demographic growth is possible. All other "approaches" are just chatter.
    2. 2. During a crisis, the issue of wages in the amount of at least 4 living wages per employee must be resolved, and the payment of dividends must be frozen until the end of the crisis. In this case, the profit will not go to the west, but to invest in the country.
    3. Following Roosevelt's example, create a government market for gold, prohibiting its export and setting prices for it not by the Central Bank, but by the Government.
    4. Following the example of the United States, pass a federal law on the maximum interest rate for all transactions within the country.
    5. Determine the Central Bank's obligation to fulfill the functions provided for by the Constitution and not to meddle in issues of domestic prices. Inflation targeting for developing countries introduced the Washington Consensus, which is contrary to our Constitution.
    In general, isn't it time to create the State Bank, and return Sberbank to state ownership?
    There is no other way out of the crisis. Otherwise, it will be like in 1998: world GDP grew by 4.5%, and only in the Russian Federation did it decrease.
    1. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 April 29 2021 07: 06
      -2
      Quote: Thomas the Unbeliever
      In economics, there is one immutable law: a person works only when he receives funds for his labor for the reproduction of labor, including the costs of his health, education, culture and family maintenance.

      Actually, no. There was no social worker before and a person worked.
      Quote: Thomas the Unbeliever
      During a crisis, the issue of wages in the amount of at least 4 living wages per employee must be resolved, and the payment of dividends must be frozen until the end of the crisis. In this case, the profit will not go to the west, but to invest in the country.

      Dap Dap? Cut the sturgeon a little there. Where does this figure come from? Are we going to get fucked up by inflation in the end?
      Quote: Thomas the Unbeliever
      Following Roosevelt's example, create a government market for gold, prohibiting its export and setting prices for it not by the Central Bank, but by the Government.

      And what does gold have to do with it? Why not diamonds or say titanium? Gold prices are determined by the market, not by the Central Bank.
      Quote: Thomas the Unbeliever
      Following the example of the United States, pass a federal law on the maximum interest rate for all transactions within the country.

      Which one exactly? And how does that help?
      Quote: Thomas the Unbeliever
      In general, isn't it time to create the State Bank, and return Sberbank to state ownership?
      There is no other way out of the crisis. Otherwise, it will be like in 1998: world GDP grew by 4.5%, and only in the Russian Federation did it decrease.

      Now the situation is not at all like in 98. What kind of state bank? Why is it needed?
      Quote: Thomas the Unbeliever

      Determine the Central Bank's obligation to fulfill the functions provided for by the Constitution and not to meddle in issues of domestic prices. Inflation targeting for developing countries introduced the Washington Consensus, which is contrary to our Constitution.

      Why is targeting so bad? Does it prevent speculators from borrowing cheaply to play on the stock exchange by shifting the inflationary burden onto an ordinary citizen?
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Sarboz
        Sarboz 6 May 2021 11: 01
        0
        Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
        Quote: Thomas the Unbelieving
        a person works only when he receives funds for the reproduction of labor power for his labor ...

        Actually, no. There was no social worker before and a person worked.

        Actually, the law is really immutable. If there are not enough funds to reproduce the labor force, a person will not work. It's just that with the development of society and the productive forces, the needs of a person change qualitatively. Therefore, sports, education, and culture are becoming urgent needs.

        Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
        Quote: Thomas the Unbelieving
        During the crisis, the issue of wages in the amount of at least 4 living wages per employee must be resolved, and the payment of dividends must be frozen until the end of the crisis.

        Dap Dap? Cut the sturgeon a little there. Where does this figure come from? Are we going to get fucked up by inflation in the end?

        You read the recommendations of Thomas the Unbeliever in a strange way. We read the first part and ignored the second. With a fourfold increase in the minimum wage, he proposes to freeze the payment of dividends. There will be no unwinding of inflation.

        Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
        Quote: Thomas the Unbelieving
        Following the example of the United States, pass a federal law on the maximum interest rate for all transactions within the country.

        Which one exactly? And how does that help?

        It's very simple. Even during the period of the minimum key rate set by the Central Bank, banks do not want to stimulate the economy with cheap loans. When Putin directly asked Gref at what "average" percentage of mortgages to the population, the "owner" of Sberbank, without batting an eye, named the minimum loan rate indicated in the SB advertisement. But in advertising, this rate is written with the qualification "from". It goes without saying that it is quite difficult to get a mortgage at this minimum percentage, and most of the borrowers are given mortgages at a much higher percentage. Putin asked him a couple of times: "Is this the average percentage?" - and every time Gref brazenly deceived the president and the entire people of Russia. Let me remind you that the state compensates Gref for his "losses", which he receives by issuing mortgages at a preferential interest rate.
        The law proposed by Thomas the Unbelievers will allow enterprises and the population to receive loans that will allow them to develop, not survive. Ghouls like Gref simply will not be able to issue a loan above the established rate. Such a law will force banks to finally start fulfilling their social function, and not just legally approved robbery of the population and enterprises. Such a law will put an end to the activities of MFIs. The volume of non-performing loans will decrease. The economy will begin to develop.

        Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
        Quote: Thomas the Unbelieving
        In general, isn't it time to create the State Bank, and return Sberbank to state ownership?
        There is no other way out of the crisis. Otherwise, it will be like in 1998: world GDP grew by 4.5%, and only in the Russian Federation did it decrease.

        Now the situation is not at all like in 98. What kind of state bank? Why is it needed?

        Sberbank should be returned to the state so that it performs the normal functions of a state bank, and does not spend money from robbing the population on paying dividends and spinning ridiculous eco-systems.
        Create a State Bank, which, unlike the Central Bank, will act exclusively in the interests of the state and the people of Russia.
        functions of the State Bank in the field of emission operations, short-term lending, financing and long-term lending, settlements, organization and regulation of money circulation and cash services for the national economy, cash execution of the USSR state budget.


        Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
        Quote: Thomas the Unbelieving

        Determine the Central Bank's obligation to fulfill the functions provided for by the Constitution and not to meddle in issues of domestic prices. Inflation targeting for developing countries introduced the Washington Consensus, which is contrary to our Constitution.

        Why is targeting so bad? Does it prevent speculators from borrowing cheaply to play on the stock exchange by shifting the inflationary burden onto an ordinary citizen?

        Inflation targeting is just plain stupid. It's like a husband would say to his wife, "Honey, I noticed that we were spending too much. And in order to cut our expenses, I switched to a less paid job." I would have gotten hit on the head with a rolling pin. In our country, instead, Elvira Nabiullina is declared the best head of the Central Bank in the Universe.
        You need to target not inflation, but at least economic growth.
        1. IS-80_RVGK2
          IS-80_RVGK2 7 May 2021 06: 53
          -1
          Quote: Sarboz
          It's just that with the development of society and the productive forces, the needs of a person change qualitatively. Therefore, sports, education, and culture are becoming urgent needs.

          As they change, so are canceled. To which we are slowly going.
          Quote: Sarboz
          With a fourfold increase in the minimum wage, he proposes to freeze the payment of dividends.

          And where does such an iron confidence come from that the freezing of dividend payments will help? In addition, I can, being a major shareholder and at the same time holding a managerial position in the company, pay myself an increased bonus and other bonuses instead of dividends. Or do not pay either one or the other at all. And bring them out somewhere in some way
          .
          Quote: Sarboz
          Ghouls like Gref simply will not be able to issue a loan above the established rate.

          Do you even know that there is inflation and banks are not a charitable organization?
          Quote: Sarboz
          The economy will begin to develop.

          I very much agree on this, probably because the main problems of our economy are not at all in loans.
          Quote: Sarboz
          Sberbank should be returned to the state so that it performs the normal functions of a state bank, and does not spend money from robbing the population on paying dividends and spinning ridiculous eco-systems.

          In fact, Sberbank works and makes money legally. And yes, you just do not understand what an ecosystem is. And there is nothing ridiculous about it.
          Quote: Sarboz
          Create a State Bank, which, unlike the Central Bank, will act exclusively in the interests of the state and the people of Russia.

          These are generally some kind of childish fantasies. In a capitalist state, the bank will always work exclusively in the interests of capital.
          Quote: Sarboz
          Inflation targeting is just plain stupid.

          No, not stupidity. And your analogy is wrong.
          1. Sarboz
            Sarboz 7 May 2021 15: 11
            0
            Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
            Quote: Sarboz
            The economy will begin to develop.

            I very much agree on this, probably because the main problems of our economy are not at all in loans.

            Do not hesitate. These methods are actually tested. Our problem is the excessive liberalization of the economy to the detriment of public administration. I consider it empty business to communicate with you on economic topics. Since the differences in views we have are ideological.

            Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
            Quote: Sarboz
            Create a State Bank, which, unlike the Central Bank, will act exclusively in the interests of the state and the people of Russia.

            These are generally some kind of childish fantasies. In a capitalist state, the bank will always work exclusively in the interests of capital.

            You have children's fantasies. You didn't even understand what the State Bank is, although I described its functions. All this is the Soviet experience. The State Bank of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (State Bank of the USSR) was a single issuing bank, a bank for lending to the national economy and a settlement center of the USSR. Therefore, your Fed works exclusively in the interests of capital. And our State Bank is in the interests of the state.

            Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
            Quote: Sarboz
            Sberbank should be returned to the state so that it performs the normal functions of a state bank, and does not spend money from robbing the population on paying dividends and spinning ridiculous eco-systems.

            In fact, Sberbank works and makes money legally. And yes, you just do not understand what an ecosystem is. And there is nothing ridiculous about it.

            I shouldn't poke.
            If Sberbank, owned by the entire people of the RSFSR, were legally privatized, then there would be something to discuss. In the meantime, it remains only to wait for nationalization.
            I can imagine what the clown Gref calls an eco-system. Why this ridiculous name is needed, I also understand. Gref tries to use the usual words and concepts as little as possible and pronounce their English-language counterparts as often as possible so that his stupidity does not immediately rush into the eyes. I don’t understand another reason why Sberbank does not lend to Russian enterprises and the population at an affordable interest rate, which is its main function, and instead spends all the profit on building various business structures such as artificial intelligence and eco-systems.

            Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
            Quote: Sarboz
            Inflation targeting is just plain stupid.

            No, not stupidity. And your analogy is wrong.

            What goal (and not any target) you set for yourself, this is the result you are achieving. Elvira has been fighting inflation for many years, for so many years inflation has won her over. Most importantly, the quality of life is not improving. Set yourself the right goals, gentlemen "liberals".
    2. Sarboz
      Sarboz 6 May 2021 11: 25
      0
      Quote: Thomas the Unbeliever
      There is no other way out of the crisis. Otherwise, it will be like in 1998: world GDP grew by 4.5%, and only in the Russian Federation did it decrease.

      Enough working program. Your words would be yes ... to the president's ears. hi
  11. Dynamic systems
    Dynamic systems April 29 2021 11: 04
    -1
    Who owns the Central Bank?
    https://bankstoday.net/last-articles/komu-prinadlezhit-i-kto-upravlyaet-tsentralnym-bankom-rf
    Answer: IMF.

    "According to Art. 56 of the Law" On the Central Bank ", the Bank of Russia has no right to interfere in the operational activities of credit institutions, which is reported in response to complaints to the Central Bank of clients of financial institutions. The Central Bank is not a government body. The Central Bank's financial independence is expressed in the fact that it covers its expenses from its own revenues.The Bank of Russia is accountable to the State Duma, which appoints and dismisses its chairman on the proposal of the President of the Russian Federation.

    The Central Bank is authorized to issue normative documents referred to its competence, but at the same time it does not have the right to initiate legislation. The Central Bank is not liable for the obligations of the state, as well as the state for the obligations of the Bank of Russia (if they have not assumed such obligations). In addition, the Central Bank is not responsible for the obligations of credit institutions, and credit institutions - for the obligations of the Bank of Russia (if they have not accepted such obligations) .... "

    In general, like a dialogue with Shvonderm ...
    "Excuse me, so who stood on whom?"
  12. Thomas the Unbelieving
    Thomas the Unbelieving 3 May 2021 22: 46
    +2
    After reading the comments on this article, I was surprised. There are also obvious correlations that I had a chance to tell both the RANEPA students and the Central Bank employees at the courses to improve their qualifications in the corresponding center of the Central Bank.
    The point is that interest rates as a symbol of usury was not accidentally condemned by all religions. It is no coincidence that the constitutions and laws of many US states set maximum interest rates. Banks and other organizations have no right to exceed them
    The link between interest rates and inflation is actually far-fetched. Three important economic indicators and corresponding processes depend on their level (and there are exact formulas for calculations).
    1. The profitability of enterprises and the availability of use in economic activities of bank loans and borrowed funds received in the financial markets.
    2. Stock rates in financial markets, which only in our country are regulated by a bank, which, by definition, is a competitor to financial markets. In most countries, financial markets are regulated by either the US legislature or the executive.
    3. The exchange rate of the national currency is determined through the forward rate, which depends on the ratio of interest rates on government bonds of the respective countries. The last question may be of some interest. So, if the annual interest rate for the ruble is 5%, and for the dollar is 0,25%, then the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in a year will change by (1 + 0,05) / (1 + 0,0025) = 1,047. This means that a dollar in a year will need to pay at least 4,7% more rubles than now.
    So manipulations with interest rates by the Central Bank do not directly affect inflation, but only indirectly by limiting the interest of investments in the real economy and consumer demand.
    1. Sarboz
      Sarboz 6 May 2021 11: 07
      0
      Quote: Thomas the Unbeliever
      After reading the comments on this article, I was surprised. There are also obvious correlations that I had a chance to tell both the RANEPA students and the Central Bank employees at the courses to improve their qualifications in the corresponding center of the Central Bank.

      Thank you. It is always interesting to listen to a literate person of the old school. For people who received knowledge about economics at investor courses, these relationships are not so obvious. In general, banks have become very creative. Before robbing a man on the stock exchange, they began to instruct him in detail on how to quickly part with their savings. And they brought up a generation of "literate consumers".