Letter from the Red Zone: Enemies and People with Reduced National Responsibility should not be underestimated
Execution of the sepoys. Painting by V. Vereshchagin, showing the ruthlessness of the British Nazis.
Reading the comments to the first two parts of my reflections in the "red zone" I was a little surprised by one circumstance.
Writes by a professional economist with many years of experience, a practitioner, researcher, teacher from the region to the Union and the socialist camp, but almost nothing about the economy. The only thing - we talked about financial intermediaries in "insurance medicine".
Nobody even paid attention to the fact that "financial intermediaries", like bugs, got divorced in all areas of our life, leaving minuscule for the main activity in any area - from housing and communal services to the Russian Academy of Sciences.
This is no coincidence.
Every sane person understands (or should understand) that the real strength of society and its protection is the people. And the fate, his present and future depend on how he was brought up, what he is taught, what he is capable of. As for the state, it is quite often described by Pushkin in Onegin:
We are happy to accept for business,
That stupidity is windy and evil,
That important people care about nonsense
And that mediocrity is one
We are on the shoulder and not strange. "
The economy is one of the most vulnerable spots for any country. Especially if the enemy is cunning and rarely goes on the attack himself, preferring to use others as "cannon fodder".
The economy is the material basis of the life of society. Therefore, it is exposed not to a simple attack, but to entanglement, a hidden blow. Therefore, one must know the enemy by sight. And understand his techniques and methods of destroying our country.
And maybe learn from him how best to deal with enemies and adversity?
In the second part of my reflections, taken from the "red zone", I hinted that, unfortunately, there is no single correct theory of the development of human society.
English fascism
In fact, many states and groups of people are constantly waging wars for the wealth of other countries. So, England, Spain, Portugal and Holland constantly started wars for the seizure of colonies, slaves and wealth of other countries and peoples. Moreover, many peoples were completely destroyed by them. Piracy, the settlement of convicts (that is, criminals) in other lands in North America, Australia and other places - the usual life of the notorious Western "democracies".
So, in 1862, the United States issued a law on the settlement of the West, that is, Indian territories. As an incentive, everyone was promised 160 acres of good land for free. The Indians were outlawed. Until the end of the century, there are massive persecutions and murders of Indians in the United States. Congress is ratifying the Indian Reservation Act, which is still home to about half a million Indians. For three hundred years (since 1622) in North America, about 100 million of the indigenous population were killed.
Until the middle (and in some countries up to the end) of the XNUMXth century, the colonialists were officially engaged in the slave trade and production based on slave labor. Then there was the "First World War" for the division and redistribution of the world. Although this "Europe" never ended wars. And they began in the ⅩV century with the division of the world along the meridian between Spain and Portugal.
In the early 30s of the XX century, Japan began the "Second World War", attacking China, trying his hand in Mongolia, in the USSR. Then a united front was organized against the USSR, implemented in the Great Patriotic War.
There is no need to build illusions: the world war continues. American fascism has just come out of the underground.
He hides behind beautiful words, behind which we must see reality:
(epigraph to the book by Alexander Radishchev "Travel from St. Petersburg to Moscow", first published in 1790.)
The phrase means:
We have seen what Hitler's Nazism brings to people.
At one time, Romm demonstrated his film "Ordinary Fascism" to the employees of the State Planning Committee of the USSR in closed viewing. It is not forgotten.
But even worse is what the members of the State Commissions to Investigate the Atrocities of the Nazis have seen. Faina Ranevskaya recalls Count Alexei Nikolaevich Tolstoy in his diary:
He stopped me in the street, on Malaya Nikitskaya.
I didn't recognize him right away, I guessed it was Tolstoy.
His cheeks sagged, he turned yellow, his eyes were also not his ...
I offered to walk him home, took his arm.
On the way, he asked me to remember and tell everyone that one cannot live with the Nazis on the same planet, that they must be settled with termites so that the termites feed on them, or the Nazis feed on termites.
He could not be included in the commission that studied all the atrocities of the fascists.
It was impossible.
Soon after this meeting, he was gone. "
But there were others behind Hitler's Nazism.
These were the British of the British Empire, who proclaimed themselves to be carriers
with various methods of murder, humiliation and plunder of other peoples.
They did this not only by military force. In India, from 1600 to 1857, the East India Company dominated, with its military strength. It was only after the sepoy uprising that India formally came under the rule of the British monarchy. History this one was described by Nehru, and the author of these lines then understood Captain Nemo in the famous "The Mysterious Island" by Jules Verne.
It is no coincidence that even before the end of World War II Churchill (and after him Truman) constantly planned an attack on the USSR. Stalin was absolutely right when he assessed Churchill's Fulton speech in 1947 as follows:
And Mr. Churchill is not alone here - he has friends not only in England, but also in the United States of America.
It should be noted that Mr. Churchill and his friends are strikingly reminiscent of Hitler and his friends in this regard.
Hitler began the cause of the outbreak of war by proclaiming racial theory, declaring that only people who speak German represent a full-fledged nation.
Mr. Churchill begins the war unleashing also with racial theory, arguing that only nations that speak English are full-fledged nations, destined to decide the fate of the whole world.
German racial theory led Hitler and his friends to the conclusion that the Germans, as the only fully-fledged nation, should dominate other nations.
The English racial theory leads Mr. Churchill and his friends to the conclusion that the nations that speak the English language, as the only full-fledged ones, should dominate the rest of the nations of the world.
In fact, Mr. Churchill and his friends in England and the United States are presenting something like an ultimatum to nations that do not speak English: accept our domination voluntarily, and then everything will be all right, otherwise war is inevitable. "
And in the post-war period, the United States does not stop waging wars, destroying states, humiliating peoples, condemning many of them to death by starvation, causing massive migrations of people under threat of death. At the same time, in the streams of people - a lot of human losses.
Therefore, no illusions are needed: until the Nazism of the American government and its vassals is ended, there will be neither peace nor prosperity on earth.
And one of the most important areas, the fronts of the war against the temporarily triumphant Nazi power in the United States and the territories occupied by it is the economy.
The economy, which ensures the sovereignty of the state, the conditions for conducting military operations, the life and well-being of the people, includes the production, distribution and use of matter, energy and information. It in no way includes speculative operations with fictitious capital represented by various kinds of so-called "securities" (stocks and bonds and other documents certifying ownership of a particular property). The confusion of these two types of activity, as noted by Aristotle, is extremely harmful.
And we must admit that with the collapse of the USSR, power came, which caused colossal damage to our country. If during the years of the Great Patriotic War the loss of national wealth on the territory of Russia within the boundaries of 2000 amounted to 8%, then in 1995-1999 they reached 11,3%. These are direct losses to the economy.
But this is not enough.
In 1995–2019, foreign direct investment in our country (that is, the purchase of Russian enterprises at a cheap price) amounted to $ 645 billion. The investment income received on these investments amounted to $ 620,2 billion over the same years. This shows an unprecedented income - almost 100% foreign "investors" received the shares they bought.
In rubles, in 2019 alone, property income paid to the "rest of the world" amounted to 6,454 trillion rubles.
For comparison: the expenses of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in 2019 amounted to 5,170 trillion rubles on the national economy. Defense and law enforcement - 5,234 trillion rubles.
Therefore, a natural question arises: who in our country determines the economic policy, if the country's government has such modest opportunities in the monetary sphere.
This issue has become even more urgent after the March meeting of the President with the "owners" of the largest monopolies.
They were offered (taking into account the geopolitical situation) to transfer to the jurisdiction of Russia on extremely favorable terms. We listened. And the reality was explained by the chairman of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. In his opinion, most of the large enterprises operating in Russia are public joint-stock companies, on the boards of which there are many "foreigners" who are unlikely to refuse to register in offshores. It appears to be true.
Whose Bank of Russia
And then one involuntarily has to look at an organization that cheerfully issues papers with the inscription "Bank of Russia".
Bank of Russia - the name of the organization, which it uses on tickets issued by it, and in quotation marks. The reason for this, firstly, is the fact that its official name "Central Bank of the Russian Federation" does not correspond to the content.
In fact, this organization is not a bank, but a non-state firm that determines the standards of operation of all banks, insurance companies, financial markets and financial organizations in Russia. Moreover, she is not only a legislator, but also an investigator, judge and executioner of all monetary and financial organizations and markets in Russia.
Her the powers to manage the economy are greater than those of the president and government of the country.
Secondly, its name is taken in quotation marks for the reason that it is de facto not a bank serving the interests of Russia.
Therefore, we are faced with the task of highlighting in the activities of this organization those functions that the bank performs in any country, and determining to what extent this is done in the interests of the state and economic entities of our country.
To solve these problems, the actual data of the banking statistics of the Central Bank itself will be used. They (in contrast to the materials of Rosstat) cannot be distrusted, since they correspond to the balance sheet of the organization.
So, all over the world, a bank is an organization that accepts depositors' funds for safekeeping with the obligation to return on demand or transfer them to another legal entity or individual, as well as having the right to use these (other people's) funds to provide loans on its own behalf.
The central or state bank differs from the usual one in the following:
1. Its clients are the state and commercial banks of the country, as well as non-residents (foreign states and firms), when making settlements with them in the interests of residents of their country for the implementation of foreign economic transactions.
2. Organizes the payment system in its own country and participates in the payment system with other states.
3. Supervises the issue or issue of banknotes on his own behalf if there are obligations to the recipient of these funds (settlement or other accounts of government bodies and domestic banks).
Based on these provisions, let's see in practice how the organization, which bears the name of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, performs these banking functions.
To do this, we extract the necessary information from the "Statistical Bulletin of the Bank of Russia" No. 2 (321), table 1.14 "Central Bank Review". As of 1.01.2020, the Central Bank issued loans to non-residents (foreign countries and firms) 27,113 trillion rubles. These loans were issued (including at the expense of the state budget of Russia held in accounts with the Central Bank) in the amount of 12,082 trillion rubles.
It is even inconvenient to comment on the given data.
They clearly show that the organization that proudly calls itself the "Bank of Russia" is in fact a bank that uses the funds of the Russian state to lend to foreign states and firms.
Indeed, the state keeps its funds in this bank. The Central Bank uses these funds for lending to non-residents. Own funds of non-residents make up a negligible share (4–6%) of the volume of loans provided to them. In absolute terms, at the beginning of 2020, this is only 744 billion rubles.
It is not surprising that when the country was simultaneously hit by a pandemic and a drop in oil prices, the Central Bank did not bother (at least following the example of the Central Banks of developed countries) to dramatically increase the availability and repayment of loans to Russian businesses and the population. Even in a disastrous situation, he, like the so-called oligarchs, showed his true nature.
The strength of the state is not in economic or military power, but in the brains of those people who rule the people. The United States, unlike the last of the Soviet regime, has more than a century of experience destroying competitors, ranging from dynamite to sophisticated economic policies. As in the years of foreign military intervention at the beginning of the last century, so to this day: Russia is of interest to the colonial powers only as an extensive and rich source of raw materials.
Semibankirshchina
Therefore, in order to understand the situation, one should understand two questions, namely: who runs the ball with money and in what way he does it.
Our experience shows the danger to the economy of various debt securities, and especially without legislative restrictions on interest rates. The fact is that all religions consider usury to be not a godly deed. Therefore, for example, in the United States, interest rates are limited by state constitutions or laws.
Unfortunately, in our country the determination of interest rates is allowed by the Central Bank - an organization not controlled by the state authorities of the country... This inevitably leads to enormous damage to the country and to its economic growth and development.
Two examples.
1998 year.
An extremely unpleasant feature of the formation of the monetary system in the Russian Federation was that, at the request of the IMF, the Central Bank was removed from state organizations, which in our country turned out to be a strange bureaucratic organization - neither state nor private. The main oddity was that this organization initially had no funds, except for a small authorized capital, frozen funds of the population in savings banks and IMF loans.
The government kept budget funds mainly in commercial banks, and the reserves of these banks in the Central Bank were minimal. In other words, when the independent central bank was created, the necessary monetary base was not created for it. He received almost most of the funds at his disposal in the form of depositors' funds in the Sberbank transferred to him and government debt. In these conditions, it was ridiculous to talk about inflation with a lack of national currency in the country.
And at the same time, under such and such conditions, the IMF demanded to abandon direct lending to the government, and to lend it by acquiring government debt obligations.
State debt obligations (GKO) appeared in the country after May 1993 in a strange guise. Unlike the United States, where the demands and advice came from, in Russia these obligations were issued not by the Ministry of Finance, but by the Central Bank.
This was of fundamental importance.
In our country, the Central Bank began to issue GKOs on the terms of its interest rate, which provided buyers of securities with super profits. Therefore, the Central Bank, as a trade organizer, was not particularly interested in the sale of T-bills. Even in August 1998, he had on the balance sheet with Sberbank half of the entire GKO-OFZ market. And during the crisis year of 1998, the Central Bank's revenues from operations with government securities accounted for almost a quarter of all its revenues.
Therefore, with the advent of GKOs, it turned out that commercial banks lend to the state, while receiving frantic interest. On this basis, the market for domestic government debt is developing.
What was the position of the Ministry of Finance?
And he, to put it mildly, did not care. He was only interested in the budget efficiency of the domestic state loan, which is as follows: the state has no money, since the state budget is in deficit. Then the next tranche of the internal government loan is placed. The state receives money, part of which goes to pay off old debts (there is no other money), and the other part goes to finance budget expenditures. This is called budget efficiency.
In 1995, at the beginning of the construction of this financial pyramid, the budget efficiency was 60%. That is, of the increase in the domestic public debt, the Ministry of Finance directs 60% to finance budget expenditures, and 40% goes to repay previous debts.
In 1996, this figure is already 20%.
In 1998, in the first quarter, the Ministry of Finance was already forced to pay on old obligations at the expense of the state budget. And he pays 21 billion rubles from the state budget revenues in the first quarter alone. This situation was aggravated by the fact that in 1996, faced with a shortage of funds in the country, the government and the Central Bank gave permission to purchase internal debts of the Russian government to non-residents.
At the end of 1997, the Central Bank carried out (to a drumbeat) the next denomination of the ruble. But this time the state was not the "interested party" in this operation. Actually, the explanation of the denomination
was sewn with white thread.
The country was ruled by "seven-bank", which hoped to profit from cashing in new banknotes. The Central Bank represented this as an operation to increase its prestige, and to the State Sign - new orders for three trillion rubles, not counting the income from the reprint of other securities.
The second “interest” in the denomination was the equally powerful oil and gas lobby.
Free pricing it brought to the point that the growth of domestic prices for oil products and gas reached the level of export prices, and the exchange rate difference disappeared - the additional income that these companies received when converting part of the currency into rubles. So, in 1997, foreign exchange earnings in relation to the domestic ruble price amounted to 7,5 dollars per ruble. At the same time, the exchange rate supported by the Central Bank in the exchange rate band was 6 rubles per dollar. The Central Bank could not raise the dollar rate due to a possible loss of prestige. Therefore, oil and gas companies have even begun to seriously think about the prospects for moving to the domestic market.
At that time, the country's government could not yet make ends meet and ensure a balanced budget. It is quite understandable that "privatization" led to the fact that at least one third of the entire economy went into the shadows or offshore. The state could not provide a normal tax policy. And it was forced to resort to borrowing in the domestic (GKO) and foreign markets. In the country, monetary policy was commanded by the IMF mission, which was least of all interested in the development of the Russian economy. The population of the country was so robbed by the "reformers" that then (as now) it could not provide assistance to the state.
In this situation, there should have been only a reason for the devaluation of the ruble, in which so many leaders of our economy were interested. Moreover, having the necessary information, they had the opportunity to “reinforce” their personal fortune. It was no coincidence that the Attorney General was removed after that.
Unlike residents, non-residents work in the world money markets, the state of which determines their behavior. When the crisis broke out in Southeast Asia, it is natural that all investors, like a shy herd, began to withdraw their money from emerging markets.
Not only the government, but also the Central Bank found itself in a rather difficult position. As soon as foreign investors stopped investing foreign currency in GKOs, they faced the problem of lending to the government by purchasing GKOs. But he did not have enough currency to maintain the exchange rate within the announced corridor.
And the demand for currency has increased sharply, including from the population concerned about the denomination, from which no one expected anything good out of habit. Therefore, due to the reserves of the Central Bank and funds of banks in the country, the volume of foreign currency in cash almost doubled, and foreign exchange reserves were melting before our eyes.
Help from the IMF was not worth waiting for. As Aleksashenko (then Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank) writes in his book:
Attempts to find an understanding of our difficulties do not evoke reciprocal feelings in him, which, however, is understandable: a crisis is flaring up in Korea, and, of course, this country is more important for American investors, and the country's authorities, unlike Russia, are ready to go for the most decisive actions to overcome the crisis. Again, words are heard about the need to strengthen the budget and, most importantly, about the need to change monetary policy:
“You want to keep both the course and the rates, this will not work. You should stop and not buy T-bills on the market. It is possible to use foreign exchange reserves to support the exchange rate only if you reduce the monetary base (reduce the amount of money in the economy. - S. A.), otherwise you end up losing reserves and devaluation. "
There is nothing to object, a classic phrase from a textbook on macroeconomics. "
The Central Bank in 1997 doubled interest rates.
True, then the leadership had not yet read Western literature and therefore did this trick on the direct advice of the US Treasurer. Therefore, there was no need to appoint the leadership of the then Central Bank as "the best bankers." The result of the work of the leadership of the Central Bank in that relatively simple crisis situation is as follows: world GDP in 1998 grew by 3,5%, Russia's GDP decreased by 4,8%, a drop in state budget revenues (at par) - by 3,4%, an increase in prices - by 86%. And after the waste of foreign exchange reserves, the ruble's exchange rate fell almost fourfold.
A worthy completion of that operation is the default of the Russian state.
2014 year.
The rise to power of the Nazis in Ukraine and the beginning of the civil war. For Russia, this turned into the beginning of a sanctions war against us on the part of the United States (how else to support the Nazi brothers?) And the countries occupied by them.
Under Medvedev's presidency, by this time the entire credit and financial system of the country was concentrated in the hands of the Central Bank. He was given not only banking supervision, but also financial markets, insurance companies, all credit non-banking organizations. In other words, from the Central Bank created a bureaucratic organization that owns the entire monetary system of the country... The government with its Ministry of Finance does not have (even close) such serious financial and monetary power.
In the face of direct and open confrontation with the "West", the Central Bank does not find anything smarter than to open our foreign exchange market to foreign capital. But as a result, our banks are beginning to engage in currency speculation. And it’s a no brainer that if you can borrow money abroad at 2%, convert it into rubles and provide loans at 20%, then who will refuse such “earnings”?
By almost doubling interest rates at the end of 2014, the monetary authorities assured us that
Generally speaking, it is not very clear what the rise in price or reduction in price of money means, which is itself a measure of prices? We can say that prices are getting higher or lower in relation to the monetary unit, but not vice versa. And, in theory, an increase in interest rates changes access to cash loans, and if the interest is higher than profitability, it prohibits lending. Access to credit and the rise in the cost of money are not the same thing.
True, with an increase in interest, the forward exchange rate inevitably changes, followed by the current exchange rate. And so it happened: the dollar grew against the ruble in 2014 by 72%. In 2015 - another 25! But this is not enough. In 2014 (for the first time since 2004), the currency component of the money supply increased sharply due to the massive import of foreign currency in cash. The purchasing power of foreign currency in the total purchasing power of the country's entire money supply increased from 18% (at the beginning of 2014) to 31% (at the beginning of 2015). This process is called
Most importantly, changes in interest rates in our country were motivated by the need to fight inflation.
You can understand this position.
On the one hand, these are the recommendations of the IMF and the World Bank, formulated in the notorious Washington Consensus. (Note that we got out of the 1998 default only when the new government refused to follow foreign recommendations).
On the other hand, the state also aims at this, formulating goals for the Central Bank in the law, which include ensuring the stability of the national currency, but do not provide for its responsibility for the state of the economy. And the Central Bank cheerfully rushes into battle, thinking that monetary means can directly defeat inflation.
Manipulations with interest rates cannot lead to a monetarist result: if the interest is increased, the issue of loans has decreased, the money supply has decreased, prices have stopped growing. So - long live inflation targeting!
But connoisseurs of Western models have forgotten that the money supply is not uniform. And the increase in the percentage will first affect its structure. We will not go into detail about all this complicated monetary mechanism. Here are just the results of the first four years (2013–2016):
- the amount of cash increased by 20% with a sharp decline in the population's monetary income, which indicates a large flow of cashing into the shadow economy and crime;
- the volume of transferable deposits, that is, accounts used for settlements, increased by 35,6%;
- the amount of deposits used for savings increased by 52,2%;
- the volume of foreign currency accounts (the same savings) increased 2,6 times;
- The country's GDP has decreased by a percentage over four years;
- retail trade turnover decreased in 2015 by 5,2%, and in 2016 - by another 10%.
Finally,
after the consumer price index rose 41,6% compared to 2012.
But smart people warned that this should not be done.
No wonder one of the prominent American economists wrote:
And, in general, of all the instruments for regulating the money supply, the most unreliable and unpredictable is the change in interest rates.
It can lead to extremely undesirable consequences, of which the payment of part of the interest from the state budget is far from the most ridiculous.
Western vacuum cleaner
In order to figure out where our money is, no difficulties and long tables are needed.
Let's try to understand the situation with just six figures published by the Central Bank. To do this, we will compose a tiny balance of the country's money supply as of 1.01.2020 (in trillions of rubles).
All money in Russia consists of three aggregates that form the money supply in the national definition:
1. Cash (Central Bank tickets issued into circulation) - 9,7
2. Settlement and current accounts for non-cash payments - 14,2
3. Money in term deposits (savings of the population and enterprises) - 27,8.
The total money supply in the national definition is 51,7 trillion rubles.
These are the obligations of the country's banking system to its customers. Now let's see where our money is?
For what purposes did the banks use our money on their own behalf?
There are only three such directions for using this money:
1. Monetary gold, which is the security of bank obligations in case of emergency - 7,2
2. Domestic credit, that is, the liabilities of banks to the state, enterprises and the population - 57,7
3. Credit provided to foreign capital and governments - 39,6.
The total amount of funds used by banks in the country is 104,5 trillion rubles.
It turns out interestingly: banks use the amount of 104,5 trillion rubles, and only 51,7 trillion have been issued to the country.
So where is the difference - 41,2 trillion rubles, which is 80% (more precisely, 79,8%) of all the country's money?
According to the rules of banking, a bank can issue a loan only within the limits of its available funds (and even less the reserve norms established by the Central Bank).
It looks like in the movie "Aybolit-66":
To answer this question, it is enough to look at the balance sheet of an organization called the Central Bank. In fact, in terms of banking, it acts as a vacuum cleaner pumping money out of the country.
Let's take a look at his annual report, submitted to the State Duma on May 20, and which caused genuine delight among his receivers.
According to the balance sheet as of December 31.12.2019, XNUMX, the Central Bank had in the country (Russia) the following monetary liabilities (rounded off):
1. Cash in circulation - 10,6 trillion rubles.
2. Funds of the Government of the Russian Federation - 10,7 trillion rubles.
3. Funds of credit institutions (ours) - 4,2 trillion rubles.
4. Securities - 1,9 trillion rubles.
In total, 28 trillion rubles.
Let's see how he used them.
1. Precious metals - 6,9 trillion rubles.
2. Funds placed with non-residents and securities foreign issuers - 25,3 trillion rubles.
3. Securities of the government and banks of the Russian Federation - 1,1 trillion rubles.
Total - 30,5 trillion rubles.
Not all balance sheet items are indicated. But even so it is clear that the Central Bank works as foreign bank in our country, using Russian funds for lending to foreign capital and foreign countries, mostly hostile (according to our authorities), but making good use of our resources.
The result of these efforts as a return on investment (in percent): dollar - 1, euro - 0,4, yuan - 3,05, yen - 0,04. And the final result, stunning for the Central Bank of any country - loss over the past two years, 617,2 billion rubles.
People are funny and sometimes weird. A powerful and open economic war is being waged with the country, and they are tormented by
Yes, there is no crisis, except for the one about which Professor Preobrazhensky spoke: in the minds of those people who have long been "running" our economy, but do not want to protect it from their "colleagues and partners." And why twitch, if even opponents praise you.
Unlike the current narrow-minded rulers, the founder of the USSR had a very clear idea of the forces that drive society.
Our ideological opponents also admitted this.
So, the largest economist of the ⅩⅩ century, who became the Lord and Peer of England for scientific merits (which was not even awarded to Newton), Keynes wrote:
There can be no more cunning, more sure way to overturn the foundation of society than disorder of monetary circulation.
The process directs all the forces of economic law towards destruction and does it in such a way that not a single person in a million is able to find the root of evil. "
And this is true: who rules the money in the country, he also rules the country.
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