Military Review

Smoke screen: Ukraine imitates an offensive, LDNR - helplessness

64

Muscle play



Kiev, obviously, is playing on aggravation, but time passes, and there is still no offensive. The number of attacks from all possible calibers is gradually growing, more and more new photo and video materials about the transfer of military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the demarcation line of military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine appear on the Web, and the DPR is almost daily “bombed” with fake messages about mining of schools and state institutions. In Kiev, menacing statements are heard, but the Ukrainians did not dare to take the final step. At least for now - only God knows what is going on in the minds of the Kiev madmen and their patrons.

While Ukraine, for the sake of bluff or with serious intentions, is trying to flex its muscles, the over-proliferating cohort of near-Donbass "analysts" tirelessly predicts an imminent offensive, and the defenders of the LPRP are inevitable and crushing defeat during the first two or three days (or even hours) of the conflict. In principle, such statements, although they sometimes sound like shameful alarmism, are better than stupid fanfare. At the same time, most war correspondents and experts agree that the demonstrative activity of the Armed Forces, including the transfer of equipment, is more a game of raising stakes in dialogue with Moscow than a real preparation for hostilities. Moreover, the Russian Foreign Ministry has already stated unequivocally that Russia will not allow a repetition of the civil war.

As for the population of the republics, for the most part people are quite calm about the potential massacre. Many yearn for revenge, someone is simply tired of the current endless timelessness in a state of "no peace, no war." At the same time, many (obviously not those who are already panicking today) look at the exacerbation as a chance to return the territories seized by Ukraine, or even to finally resolve the issue of the power of fascists and nationalists in Kiev.

No longer a militia


Despite the flurry of "insiders", no one, including the corps command, has any exact figures and a comprehensive understanding of the state and number of the People's Militia (how many real fighters are in each particular battalion, and how many have gone AWOL forever, they know only in the headquarters of this very battalion). At the same time, there are even fewer reasons for hysteria than reasons for optimism and stories about the invincibility of the militia in 2014. Unlike the beginning of the war, now the defenders of Donbass have artillery, and MLRS (according to the same Strelkov, about 200 vehicles), and armored vehicles. And there are much more defenders themselves, and they are at least minimally trained and disciplined.

You can tear your hair out as much as you like and lament about the terrible state of the NM LDNR (believe me, Ukraine is full of scribblers who are screaming in the same way about the non-combat ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), low morale and other signs of the impending "drain" and the apocalypse, but believe that that the war in Donbass will become a pleasant walk for the Ukrainian army is stupid. It is no less stupid than believing in magical Bayraktars, which will surely endow the Armed Forces of Ukraine with supernatural powers.

Possible scenarios


What I would like to say about possible scenarios for the development of events: today, the author thinks the most likely a gradual increase in shelling from the Armed Forces of Ukraine and, possibly, an attempt to conduct a small offensive operation, capturing a farm and declaring it a crushing victory. In this case, Kiev is almost completely insured against Russian interference and, given the current policy, in connection with which the LDNR artillery does not use even 10% of its potential, it may not be afraid of big problems. Ukraine can kill the defenders of Donbass and civilians, destroy villages, increasing the degree of violence and thereby putting pressure on Moscow until the Russian Federation decides to move from “deep concern” to something more effective (if this happens at all ).

At the same time, variations on the theme of reaching the border or fighting in urban conditions look very unlikely. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have already entered the border in 2014, and precisely in order to make sure that reaching the border does not mean at all to take control of it (hundreds of kilometers of rough terrain, after all). Most likely, such a gamble would have ended with an analogue of the Southern Cauldron. As for attempts to break into the city (if we are not talking about some tiny monotowns): the fate of such an operation is to instantly turn into a bloody mess. To quickly take control of a settlement is a complex and expensive event (in terms of losses of equipment and personnel). Having decided on it, Kiev is guaranteed to suffer colossal losses, but whether it will be able to implement such a scenario is a big question. In any case, the capture of a large settlement, even with a serious superiority in forces, will take days, and maybe weeks.

War as an opportunity


If it were not for the losses, the aggravation of the situation at the front would only be beneficial for the Donbass republics - they have become too relaxed in recent years in the government and corps. There is a hope that the military threat will stir up the swamp of the rear units and inspire the command and control bodies to fully check the combat readiness of equipment and units, their manning, etc.

Similar processes will not interfere in the civil sphere as well - in the LDNR too many officials and leaders have forgotten what time they live. A significant part of the war did not see at all, since the phase of active hostilities was carried out in the Russian Federation or in Ukraine. The newly-minted "elites" would obviously benefit from an aggravation - if only to see who will remain to carry out their duties and who will rush to the side of the border. Unlike the first years of their existence, when in the republics many conceptual issues were resolved, as they say, from the wheels, today Lugansk and Donetsk seem to be more busy with intraspecific power struggles, the development of budgets and various stillborn ventures (the doctrine of "Russian Donbass", their own cryptocurrency , youth parliament, etc.). Perhaps a military conflict could shake up the republics and destroy the “food chains” created in recent years, redirecting attention and resources to really important problems. But so far the situation resembles a "smokescreen" on both sides.

In any case, the final decision - whether there will be a new war or not - is being made today not in Donbass, but in Kiev or, rather, Washington. So the LDNR can only prepare, wait and try to spend the available time wisely.
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  1. Insurgent
    Insurgent 14 March 2021 15: 08
    +4
    Smoke screen: Ukraine imitates an offensive, LDNR - helplessness
    Author:
    Egor Makhov (Lugansk)


    Makhov is a mouthpiece. Whose request what ? Perhaps simply - RUPOR (bell).
    1. Terenin
      Terenin 14 March 2021 15: 14
      +5

      Egor Makhov (Egor Makhov)
      17 October 2018 17: 12
      Meeting Pushilina and Surkov. Will the salary increase in the DNI?
      only the average salary is 7 thousand rubles, and the pension is 3 thousand.

      Egor hi How are things going with payments now?
      1. Vladimir Mashkov
        Vladimir Mashkov 14 March 2021 15: 42
        +7
        I understand Yegor. The wait before the battle drags on unbearably dreary and long, and all sorts of thoughts creep into my head. And the main one is when will it start? And it will begin when the Americans command: "Fas!" Only when it will be? .....

        And here's another thing I assume: given the transience of the planned blitzkrieg, the invasion can happen even before the earth dries up. At any time after readiness
        1. Zug
          Zug 14 March 2021 15: 59
          +3
          Damn it, right to the point. They will start when everything is ready, EVERYWHERE is ready. And only on the command USA-FAS!
          1. antivirus
            antivirus 14 March 2021 17: 28
            -2
            And only on the command USA-Fas! - Is everything decided in South Korea? on readiness
        2. Aleksandr21
          Aleksandr21 14 March 2021 16: 10
          +1
          Quote: Vladimir Mashkov
          And here's another thing I assume: given the transience of the planned blitzkrieg, the invasion can happen even before the earth dries up. At any time after readiness


          Vryatli so quickly, judging by the reports, Ukraine, with the support of France, Germany ... is trying to replace the Minsk agreements with a new treaty, and now (sort of like) they have sent their proposals to Russia for acquaintance ... and now everything depends on the position of the GDP, if will go to negotiations, then the aggravation will subside and at the end of April-May there will be a new summit, if not and ours will insist on the implementation of Minsk, then May-June-July can be hot (provided that the parties completely lose the desire to negotiate), because as you know " war is the continuation of politics by other means "(c).
          1. Nyrobsky
            Nyrobsky 14 March 2021 19: 57
            +5
            Quote: Aleksandr21
            according to reports, Ukraine with the support of France, Germany... is trying to replace the Minsk agreements with a new treaty and now (sort of) have sent their proposals to Russia for acquaintance ...
            The generator of these messages is Kravchuk, according to whom, by the way, "Mrs. Merkel is not yet aware of the contents of the plan."
            As a matter of fact, before promoting a new treaty, Germany and France must first admit in disgrace that Kiev has rubbed the euro with guarantors instead of toilet paper, which they cannot do, at least until the chancellor of Germany and the President of France are replaced (September 2021 and April 2022).
            Quote: Aleksandr21
            and now everything depends on the position of the GDP

            GDP has already said that there is no alternative to the Minsk agreements.
            Quote: Aleksandr21
            will go to negotiations, then the aggravation will subside and at the end of April-May there will be a new summit, if not and our people insist on the implementation of Minsk, then May-June-July can be hot

            May, June and July along the way will be hot anyway. Bidon promised congressmen that he would stop the construction of SP-2 until May 15. He also said that the United States is preparing a "retaliatory" cyberattack against Russia, allegedly in "response" to its cyberattacks. Perhaps a provocation to aggravate the situation in Donbass from Ukraine will take place in combination with a cyber attack by the United States in order to provoke Russian retaliatory actions and present them as an act of aggression, for which an appropriate media background is already being created in order to persuade Germany to curtail the gas project with the Russian Federation.
            Quote: Aleksandr21
            after all, as you know, "war is the continuation of politics by other means"
            economic policy yes
            1. Aleksandr21
              Aleksandr21 15 March 2021 06: 12
              0
              Quote: Nyrobsky
              The generator of these messages is Kravchuk, according to whom, by the way, "Mrs. Merkel is not yet aware of the contents of the plan."
              As a matter of fact, before promoting a new treaty, Germany and France must first admit in disgrace that Kiev has rubbed the euro with guarantors instead of toilet paper, which they cannot do, at least until the chancellor of Germany and the President of France are replaced (September 2021 and April 2022).


              If Germany and France valued their reputation, they would have reacted long ago to Ukraine's inaction regarding the implementation of the Minsk agreements ... but things are still there, and not so long ago in the UN, these "guarantors" blocked the speech of the LDNR, thereby refusing they are in dialogue, so they only welcome the conclusion of a new treaty, but they don’t remember the Minsk agreements anyway ... so the change of the leaders of these states is not necessary, the more the topic is not interesting to their population, people are now more concerned about: covid, economic situation in the EU, migrants, jobs, etc. but it doesn't matter to Donbass.

              But Kravchuk's statement is interesting, i.e. Ukraine has been trying for a long time to get out of the Minsk agreements, but at the same time to blame Russia ... before they were just dragging on time, but now it is clear that they have received support somewhere (I don’t know in Washington, or Brussels), but the fact is ... don’t get it. would be approval, Kravchuk would not have raised this topic in the media (drawing Germany / France into his internal games), because from there he could have arrived with a tough answer with the context that there is no alternative to Minsk, and they do not know anything about the Ukrainian initiative, but from there silence ...
        3. Yegor Makhov
          15 March 2021 13: 31
          0
          You have no idea how right you are. I'm already starting to realize that I can go into circulation before something starts again. Already today it is clearly not a cake. If only to live
          1. Vladimir Mashkov
            Vladimir Mashkov 15 March 2021 13: 36
            +1
            Quote: Egor Makhov
            You have no idea how right you are. I'm already starting to realize that I can go into circulation before something starts again. Already today it is clearly not a cake. If only to live

            Brace yourself. It is unlikely that this will help you much, but we are for you VERY we are experiencing. Judging by the activity of the ukrobots on the VO soon, it won't be long to wait.
      2. Terenin
        Terenin 14 March 2021 15: 55
        +11
        Quote: Terenin

        Egor Makhov (Egor Makhov)
        17 October 2018 17: 12
        Meeting Pushilina and Surkov. Will the salary increase in the DNI?
        only the average salary is 7 thousand rubles, and the pension is 3 thousand.

        Egor hi How are things going with payments now?

        laughing Why don't they read it? Instead of answering the question, they beat the minuses ... About some kind of horns. Yes, we are all mouthpieces here.
        How are payments in the LPR now? Like in 18, three and seven thousand?
    2. Dread
      Dread 14 March 2021 15: 15
      -16%
      Quote: Insurgent
      Makhov is a mouthpiece. Whose? Perhaps simply - RUPOR (bell).

      Insurgent, Makhov is an open mouthpiece for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who writes only fables about the DPR and LPR, can be seen from his profile on VO ... He already got everyone with his delirium! Now "Ukrainians" will run in to defend him - this is a hybrid war in action, from the outskirts!
      1. Insurgent
        Insurgent 14 March 2021 15: 18
        +4
        Quote: Dread
        The insurgent is an open mouthpiece of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, writing only fables about the DPR and LPR ... I already got everyone with my delirium! Now "Ukrainians" will run in to defend it - this is a hybrid war in action from the outskirts!


        Huh! Chi is not spouse rosumu fool ? I belay , and the APU ???

        (Your comment has not been evaluated, before you give explanations ...)
        1. Dread
          Dread 14 March 2021 15: 25
          -3
          Insurgent. Corrected. It's about Makhov!
          I, you, put pluses - you are completely right!
      2. Insurgent
        Insurgent 14 March 2021 15: 24
        -1
        Quote: Dread

        Insurgent, Makhov is an open mouthpiece of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

        That's SO understandable that и about whom .
    3. figwam
      figwam 14 March 2021 15: 23
      +3
      A British scout suddenly flew in on Sunday.
      1. Intruder
        Intruder 14 March 2021 15: 41
        -4
        A British scout suddenly flew in on Sunday.
        Huh .., ghosts of spy mania on Sunday, however ...!? laughing wink
        1. figwam
          figwam 14 March 2021 17: 16
          +1
          Quote: Intruder
          Huh .., ghosts of spy mania on Sunday, however ...!?

          Mania for those who constantly spy on our borders.
  2. knn54
    knn54 14 March 2021 15: 16
    +1
    Kiev expects Russia to "get tired." There will be some kind of "creeping" conflicts, while Kiev will insist on bringing in peacekeepers, preferably from NATO.
    A lot will depend on the internal situation, the tension in society.
    1. 210ox
      210ox 14 March 2021 15: 39
      +8
      Situation and intensity of society? Here in Russia? I judge by people-relatives, friends, colleagues at work. The topic of Donbass for them has become, if not secondary, then none at all. At what, -Donbass from us, here it is, next to. We are concerned about what is happening around - the rise in prices, for almost everything, household issues, construction, repairs. People have ceased to react and notice the multidirectional statements of the authorities about, “Donbass is Ukraine, and“ We will not leave Donbass. ”Even if they quietly and merge, the population will notice it with some irritation, bewilderment, but no more. that the citizens will not forgive the authorities the drain is all empty.
  3. Ros 56
    Ros 56 14 March 2021 15: 19
    +3
    Looking forward to tomorrow, what did Gordon promise with a mysterious air? If nothing happens, let him change his surname to Promulkina. wassat
    1. figwam
      figwam 14 March 2021 15: 24
      +6
      Quote: Ros 56
      what did Gordon promise with a mysterious air? If nothing happens, let him change his surname

      Not completely change, but let him correct it ..
      1. 210ox
        210ox 14 March 2021 15: 42
        +3
        Better to change the voiced agree to the deaf.
      2. Intruder
        Intruder 14 March 2021 15: 43
        +1
        Not completely change, but let him correct it ..
        and orientation ...!? Oh, political orientation ... sorry !!! wink
    2. Guards turn
      Guards turn 14 March 2021 15: 35
      +3
      Ukrainian bald Gordon tells us what will happen on March 15th ... “On March 15th, as far as I know, Bellingcat's investigative film about the" Wagnerites "is planned to be released. About the special operation to capture the "Wagnerites", which was ineptly leaked by the agents of the Russian Federation. This is the first time I have voiced this information. Since Bellingcat has decided to interview some more employees of the Office of the President of Ukraine in Kiev and is doing so now, the release of the film may be postponed for a week or two. "
      “But I won't make a secret anymore. This will be the release of a film about the ineptly failed super special operation, which was carried out in Ukraine by the intelligence services of the United States, Turkey and Ukraine. It failed because of the betrayal within the Ukrainian leadership. People who have become traitors will be named, as far as I know, in this investigation. "
      1. 210ox
        210ox 14 March 2021 18: 53
        +6
        Hmm. Is it just? I thought it would be a statement that the valiant APU once again thwarted the Kremlin's plan to seize nenki.
      2. Maximilian37
        Maximilian37 17 March 2021 00: 36
        0
        What is there to think about? Bellingcat employees have postponed the release of the film because they are now interviewing traitors in the president's office. Possibly traded. But it seems to me that the film will not be released or will not be complete, strongly incomplete.
        1. Guards turn
          Guards turn 17 March 2021 10: 20
          0
          Bellingcat suffered a sensation: Hand-to-hand fighter Gordon named a new date for "babakha" in Ukraine - April 5
          1. Maximilian37
            Maximilian37 April 7 2021 11: 50
            0
            April 5 has passed and why is Bellingcat and Gordon silent? As I suggested, the president’s office was apparently begged not to release the "investigation."
  4. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 14 March 2021 15: 20
    -9
    And one more article NOTHING. Sharpening of the pen, what about the authors? Another fortune-telling on coffee grounds - there will be, there won't be, options, shmarivants ...
    Let's try to imagine that they would poke their attention to Comrade Stalin with such analytical articles. What would you write then? That's right - a petition for clemency, or at least a reduction in the period of work in felling. And so ... They write the devil knows (yes, probably, and he does not know) what!
    1. Insurgent
      Insurgent 14 March 2021 15: 28
      0
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      And one more article NOTHING. Sharpening of the pen, what about the authors?


      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      They write the devil knows (yes, probably, and he does not know) what!


      Chief, how is it? What is it ? request After all, recently you almost prayed for Makhov, when he pushed bullshit about the DPR and LPR, and now what ...

      How has it become?
      1. The leader of the Redskins
        The leader of the Redskins 14 March 2021 15: 30
        -8
        Probably written out. It happens with creative people - a crisis of the genre, the muse flew away ...
    2. Intruder
      Intruder 14 March 2021 15: 45
      +2
      Let's try to imagine that they would poke their attention to Comrade Stalin with such analytical articles.
      could ..., but they would rather not get to the office, with the folder on the leader's desk, the faithful comrade Beria would filter ... winked
  5. Yuriy71
    Yuriy71 14 March 2021 15: 31
    -3
    The author, and you yourself, who? Isn't Grief an Analyst? "... the excessively proliferating cohort of near-Donbass" analysts "tirelessly predicts an imminent offensive, and an imminent and crushing defeat for the defenders of the LDNR ..." And you know that the front line from the outskirts of Donetsk is only THREE kilometers away! You, with such an Analytical mind .... count, if Ukraine tramples with a tank fist, after artillery barrage - how long will they be able to resist? And when Russia comes to its senses - there will already be street fights or, in general, everything will be over !!!
    1. Lara Croft
      Lara Croft 14 March 2021 16: 16
      0
      Quote: Yuriy71
      will be already or street fights

      The APU will bypass Donetsk and Lugansk and move on, the cities themselves are simply blocking the nat. baht, they will make several corridors for the "peace man" in the direction of Ukraine for "filtering" and that's it .....
      1. Professor
        Professor 14 March 2021 17: 41
        -5
        Quote: Lara Croft
        Quote: Yuriy71
        will be already or street fights

        The APU will bypass Donetsk and Lugansk and move on, the cities themselves are simply blocking the nat. baht, they will make several corridors for the "peace man" in the direction of Ukraine for "filtering" and that's it .....

        You're right. There is no point in taking settlements now. You can simply block them and be patient.

        PS
        Almost all the acquaintances left the Donbass, and to listen to the author there the militias breed like on a photocopier.
  6. Stirbjorn
    Stirbjorn 14 March 2021 16: 26
    +4
    Unlike the beginning of the war, now the defenders of Donbass have artillery, and MLRS (according to the same Strelkov, about 200 vehicles), and armored vehicles. And there are much more defenders themselves, and they are at least minimally trained and disciplined.
    The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also not the same as in the summer of 2014 and are highly trained compared to that period. And Strelkov has not been to Donbass since 2014, so his opinion does not have such weight today. Yes, and the militia had the idea then, they fought for victory - but now? for maintaining the status quo, such as not peace, not war, with an incomprehensible status ?! Who could have something in a peaceful life, dumped from there to Russia. Those who cannot live without war - in PMCs, and now in all sorts of Syria-Libya, there at least pay an order of magnitude more. Sadly everything is shorter
    1. 210ox
      210ox 14 March 2021 19: 00
      0
      I, too, do not see any prospects for the LPR. From the word NO. Two republics, not even united into one, with an incomprehensible status, in limbo. In Moscow, they are afraid to see them as part of Russia, and in their leadership it is all right. They sit on a budget from Russia, and if something is accepted here.
      1. geniy
        geniy 21 March 2021 11: 38
        0
        210okv (dmitry) March 14, 2021 19:00 I don't see any prospects for the LPNR either. From the word NO.

        Ah, again I am attacking you because you are expressing completely wrong thoughts. Because there is no economic need to annex the LDNR to Russia, although it is correct to conduct active mutually beneficial trade. The bottom line is that most people are mistaken in thinking that small and even dwarf states are economically worse than large ones, no! In reality, a state of any size - even the dwarf one - may well provide itself with everything necessary for life and even live richly if this state or community produces unique highly efficient products or produces a lot of products and exports surpluses to other states. This is for example the well-known Venetian glass, Chinese silk and porcelain. Something I remembered one small Dutch island, which in the Middle Ages produced excellent dishes and sold them, which is why the inhabitants of neighboring countries believed that the inhabitants of that island live so richly that they even eat pigs from golden troughs ... and other microscopic human communities who by their labor have created a good life for themselves, for example, the same Robinson with Friday, and whether there are several people on the Mysterious Island. And if you think that these examples are literary fiction, then here is the Lykov family who lived comfortably in the taiga for decades and such examples of people living in solitude - there are actually a lot of Bounty Island.
        And in the same way, LDNR has the opportunity to produce unique products that are in high demand in the world and sell them to all countries of the world. Yes, at least the same coking coal and send it through the Mariupol port to all countries of the world. You will say that Mariupol is occupied by Ukrainian fascists? But after all, he was almost freed from the Nazis - there was very little left! BUT Putin, along with Hollande and Merkel, stopped the militia offensive. And I can offer the LDNR the release of many types of unique products to sell them all over the world. For example, using coal to melt ordinary sand and turn it into very expensive foam glass - an excellent heat-insulating material for building houses. Or, again, with the help of coal, smelt ultra-thin glass with a thickness of 0,1 mm and glue it into armor packages. Or create a unique material from a quartz melt with a melting point of 1700 degrees - more than steel and mix this melt with carbon fibers that can withstand 3000 degrees. Or to release fiber from a quartz melt and weave fabric from it, and then sew fire-fighting suits. A lot more can be produced in the LPR and become the richest republics in the world.
        This controversy of ours is similar to the anecdote when a shoe company sent two salespeople to Africa a century ago to research the shoe market. The first agent immediately sent a panicky report: no one in Africa wears shoes, so no one will buy them. And the second agent sent a report that there are huge opportunities in Africa - none of the blacks here have shoes! So the prospects of any business depend only on the point of view.
        1. 210ox
          210ox 21 March 2021 13: 40
          0
          Well, you are an idealist. I understand, say the right things. Take Liechtenstein, a dwarf state with a high standard of living. But! Nobody bothers him to develop, on the contrary, all kinds of support and mutually beneficial cooperation. But no one (except Russia) will cooperate with the LDNR, no one (except Russia) will buy goods from them, even if they are high-tech. From the word ALL. This applies to all unrecognized Republic. Or as part of a large unified state, or vegetation.
  7. Vlad5307
    Vlad5307 14 March 2021 16: 43
    +3
    As always, the weak point of the state is the "elite" not controlled by the state or poorly controlled by it, and especially if it is itself a part of state structures, which can predetermine the collapse of such a system of state administration. Russia needs to control such an "elite" of the LDNR more strictly in its own interests. The FSA does this in general very harshly with respect to all its vassals. hi
  8. Aleks2000
    Aleks2000 14 March 2021 17: 23
    +4
    It may start, it may not start ...
    In 19, I remember, it did not start, although all year they kept repeating - just about., Just about ... they printed pictures, called dates ...
    And naturally, no one answered for the lies ...

    So it is possible that someone just gave the command to distract people from ... ... and catch up with tensions. And then the commoners relaxed, articles began to write about the poor and difficulties in the republics ..., about the official trade of the Russian Federation with Ukraine ...

    Stop and not let go ...
    She keeps following the other articles, but tomorrow or the day after tomorrow it will be clear ..
    1. Black lotos
      Black lotos 14 March 2021 21: 07
      +3
      Quote: Alex2000
      In 19, I remember, it did not start, although all year they kept repeating - just about., Just about ... they printed pictures, called dates ...

      And at 18 ..
      And at 17 ..
      And at 16 ..
      Since the end of the hot phase in 15 year, every year / season / month somebody has announced that it is coming soon. And dates. I even remember someone who gave Ukraine 3 months. True, you can't show him.
      In general, the authors in every possible way stir up interest with imaginary offensives. They themselves invent and fantasize. Themselves refute (that said the GDP and immediately canceled, despite the fact that everyone agrees that Kiev controls Washington and they do whatever they say). Themselves are writing again.
      The eternal theme of allarmism.
      It does not cling to it is not here, not there. Just keep the fire going.
      I don’t understand why a poor country now needs these territories? There is not even a patriotic readiness to tighten their belts while "conquering" it. For it will be expensive, for a long time, And no one will pay except for Ukraine itself.
      Moreover, the losses. Zelensky's rating is not at all, and if you add the losses and the financial abyss, then no reconquest of even the Crimea itself will simply save the power from demolition in the elections.
  9. Alex Nevs
    Alex Nevs 14 March 2021 17: 49
    +1
    NELOKh is already washing his pants ... Nothing will happen.
  10. Gato
    Gato 14 March 2021 17: 54
    0
    Hmm .. The closer to the warmth - the deeper the analyst. More precisely, it is increasingly beginning to resemble Freud's psychoanalysis:
    Ukraine imitates offensive, LDNR - helplessness

    It's like a sadist having sex with a masochist.
    She (passionately):
    - Come on, torture me!
    He (insidiously):
    - But I won't! Now you will suffer for real!
  11. Viktor Afanasev
    Viktor Afanasev 14 March 2021 18: 05
    +4
    "At least for now - only God knows what is going on in the minds of the Kiev madmen and their patrons." - not only to God, it is obvious:
    The patrons are just calculating the options. And the Kiev madmen are assessing what they are ready for for chewing gum, jeans and cookies ...
    If the People's Armies of the LPR and DPR had really strengthened, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have limited themselves to strengthening and strengthening the confrontation line. Preparing for war with a strong army, they would not. I am afraid that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are well informed about the real state of the self-defense forces of the free republics. Therefore, they are pulling up their forces for a possible "blitzkrieg" when the moment comes ...
    The only thing they should be afraid of is Russia.
    If there is a guarantee that the Russian Armed Forces will not intercede for Donetsk and Lugansk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will immediately begin hostilities ...
  12. demo
    demo 14 March 2021 18: 10
    0
    The newly-minted "elites" would obviously benefit from an aggravation - if only to see who will remain to carry out their duties and who will rush to the side of the border.

    Well well. And what is aggravation - the death of many hundreds of people, destroyed housing, the horror of children - what to do with it?
    Such a "test" is too hard and barbaric a test.
    There are other, less bloody methods.
  13. nikvic46
    nikvic46 14 March 2021 18: 14
    +1
    I am an ordinary person, and I don’t know the situation in this region. But I also have fears that this time a clash cannot be avoided. After all, not only Kiev is interested in this. After a long year of a pandemic, after losses, too many need a victory. Albeit moral, and maybe economic. I think Kiev is taking a big risk. But other countries should think too. Everyone is at a dangerous line.
  14. shinobi
    shinobi 14 March 2021 18: 36
    +1
    That year, in the spring, there was the same turbidity. They waited for an offensive, but it never happened. And the year before last. Without military support from the United States, not in words, soldiers and equipment, this will continue. their loud words and threats, while acting extremely carefully. In any case, until the Yankees make peace with the Sultan, there will be no movement. The Yankees are extremely reluctant to fight without their fleet, and the Sultan will not give the go-ahead for the use of the straits. it will target its influence afterwards.
  15. TermNachTer
    TermNachTer 14 March 2021 19: 24
    +1
    To the above, I can add, given the morale of Banderaffen, I strongly doubt that the commanders will be able to drive the heroes out of the trenches))) since in ukroSS it is in the order of things to send the commander on an erotic journey on foot, or even fill his face. And if he persists strongly, they may shoot)))
  16. Alexander Yarosh
    Alexander Yarosh 14 March 2021 23: 29
    -2
    Yeah, they lure dill all the way to Moscow like Kutuzov
  17. Tagan
    Tagan 15 March 2021 06: 39
    -3
    Quote: Professor

    You're right. There is no point in taking settlements now. You can simply block them and be patient.
    PS
    Almost all the acquaintances left the Donbass, and to listen to the author there the militias breed like on a photocopier.

    Well, it’s your friends who have left. Apparently, you are very new to this region and mostly from stories only.
    In some places, you don't have to go far to provide support. As for the Donetsk direction, if it is required, a few hours and everything that is needed is on the spot (if by land transport). Aviation there with smoke breaks can appear probably in half an hour.
    "... There is no point in taking settlements now ..." The locals have no such opportunities.
  18. Tagan
    Tagan 15 March 2021 06: 48
    -1
    Quote: Stirbjorn
    The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also not the same as in the summer of 2014 and are highly trained compared to that period.

    It doesn't matter at all. They can train as much as they like with the same result in the final.
  19. svoit
    svoit 15 March 2021 09: 33
    0
    Quote: Aleksandr21
    Ukraine, with the support of France, Germany ... is trying to replace the Minsk agreements with a new treaty and now

    This may well be misleading, as has happened more than once, if we recall the beginning of the Polish-German and Soviet-German wars.
  20. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 15 March 2021 10: 19
    0
    Ze hung on two braces. On the one hand, Kolomoisky, who created and controls him, on the other hand, the United States, which wants him to surrender Kolomoisky and be controlled only by him. War is a chance for him to grow into an independent force. If, according to its results, Ukraine is reduced by half, this will only improve the situation and increase aid from the United States and the EU.
    Donbass cannot exist for a long time in the uncertain position in which it is. So the war is also beneficial for Donbass. But, of course, everyone is afraid. How will it end? Chance will determine the situation. The Russian authorities are not competent in anything, for what they undertake, so there is no coherent policy here, and there is no plan. In general, there will be what will be. Someone from some side will get up on the wrong foot, some trifle will happen ...
  21. Petrik66
    Petrik66 15 March 2021 10: 29
    -1
    DPR, LPR, Ukraine are independent states on which nothing depends. There will be a go-ahead from the States - there will be a massacre, how many Ukrainian boys can be kept. A lot of birds are killed: Germany is closing SP2, NATO and the EU are consolidating, all as one for a war, a pandemic - news number 10, Sputnik is equated with Novichok, do not forget that at the end of June a mega-agreement with China is expected to be signed and in general bring the situation in Ukraine to its logical conclusion. To hope that the diplomats will come to an agreement, but while negotiations are underway there will be no war - stupidity, let us recall Mishiko the Necktie, he made peace proposals a couple of hours before the strike. There will be war.
  22. Trapp1st
    Trapp1st 15 March 2021 11: 02
    +3
    Expression
    "Deep concern"
    it is a sign of helplessness.
  23. xomaNN
    xomaNN 15 March 2021 19: 31
    0
    I would like to believe that the UN-charismatic, NOT nice commanders, unlike the murdered Zakharchenko, the current chiefs of the DPR at least understand. Donetsk is the front line on the outskirts of the city and one must be prepared for the fact that sabotage groups and uk..r. special forces will not get involved in border battles on the outskirts. They will attack headquarters and mountains. administration. And there, officials are sitting relaxed, who will immediately raise their hands. And in order for Russia to really enter the DPR, they independently need to hold the front for several days.
  24. The comment was deleted.
  25. TerraSandera
    TerraSandera 16 March 2021 11: 54
    0
    There will be no offensive, as I said
    1. hydroy
      hydroy 18 March 2021 23: 09
      0
      It will be more likely, but in April-May, if Kiev's proposals are not accepted, but there will be an emphasis on the Minsk agreements ...
      1. TerraSandera
        TerraSandera 19 March 2021 00: 57
        0
        Suggestions? In the sense of giving up? They will not accept it, even though Minsk is surrender. And Ukraine does not need it either. They partially pump money from there and so, but they simply cannot take on the balance of the region that has been killed for so many years, it is much more profitable to simply imitate what they did for 7 years in a row, that they need it, but in fact - a smoldering conflict to please the United States against Russia
        1. hydroy
          hydroy 19 March 2021 11: 59
          0
          Why did they bring up 450 Tanks, 230 MLRS vehicles, pravoseks and soldiers prepared for urban battles to the border? Scare? They will launch an attack, they do not take the region on the balance sheet, they go to clean it up, they go so that Russia will show aggression and freeze SP-2!
          1. TerraSandera
            TerraSandera 19 March 2021 16: 31
            0
            Did you count tanks and MLRS? Why did they pull some amount to the border of the hot spot? Probably so that they were there. Sometimes there are rotations, and so on. Attracting equipment and fighting are two different things. The maneuvers of the armies were the whole history of their existence. We have seen these pulls for 5-6 years, but since the spring of 2015 no relatively serious operations have been undertaken, and even that one was behind the DPR. And the front line, apart from minor bites, has not moved since February 2015.
            What makes you think that right now the ice will move? They have no guarantees that Russia will not stand up and repeat 08.08.08. Because if they take the risk and do not succeed (and 98% will not come out), then the "toy" in the form of the LPNR will be taken away and will not be allowed to do petty bloodletting. And this is the minimum. And since the region exists, you can constantly kick Russia with it. And for the joint venture, sanctions are imposed without "aggression." Don't you understand that it is impossible to play with a sharpie (USA) according to the rules, as we often did. They do not need a reason at all, they will enter what they want and when they want, but for now this is a long game. Pay less attention to what is said on TV. You need to think yourself sometimes.
  26. Slavutich
    Slavutich 18 March 2021 09: 08
    0
    yes, a complete failure in the international arena, could this have happened under the Bolsheviks?