Cheers-patriotic mood in style
"We can repeat"
not very suitable for Turkey.
Erdogan is building a new Turkish empire.
And it visually includes the current territories of the Russian Federation: the regions of the North Caucasus, Crimea, Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, Rostov and Astrakhan Regions, Kalmykia.
The Turkish threat
Erdogan is consistently strengthening his political, economic, cultural positions on the territory of the former Ottoman Empire, in the Turkic and Islamic world.
Ankara is implementing a project to re-create a new Turkish empire, the "Great Turan" and at the same time claims to be the leader of the Muslim world (earlier the Ottoman sultans were at the same time the caliphs - the supreme leaders of all Muslims).
Turkey is waging undeclared wars in Iraq, Syria and Libya. Prevents the Kurds from creating their own state on the wreckage of Iraq or Syria. Ankara threatens Greece and France.
Azerbaijan became the first satellite of Erdogan and with the help of the Turks was able to defeat the Armenian Karabakh and Armenia. The Turks are consistently trying to increase their influence in the countries that were previously part of their empire. Erdogan declared Jerusalem a Turkish city.
Greece is experiencing military and political pressure from Turkey, which has disputed territorial and economic issues with the Turks. The Republic of Turkey is trying to become the main gas hub in the Middle East, switching over to itself "blue fuel" from Russia, Iran, Qatar, Azerbaijan, and in the future from Central Asia. That is, increasing its influence on Western Europe.
Ankara also squeezes Moscow, which had to yield on a downed plane, the introduction of Turkish troops into Syria, where pro-Turkish bandit formations control part of the country. That is, Russia was unable to restore the territorial integrity of Syria and implement its energy projects. Turkey prevented Russia from creating a more powerful Turkish Stream, bypassing Ukraine from the south.
At the same time, Ankara used Moscow for its economic development: billions of dollars annually from the tourist flow from the Russian Federation. Increased energy sustainability with the help of the Turkish Stream. Russia is building the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in Turkey, and even gives out a loan to the station, the prospects for the return of these investments are very vague (especially given the constant growth of political tension in relations between the two powers).
In Libya, the Turks helped Saraj's forces repel the advance of General Haftar, who was supported by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Russia.
Thanks to Turkish support, Azerbaijan, quite unexpectedly for the majority of military experts, defeated Armenia in Karabakh. Turkey has included Azerbaijan and Karabakh in its sphere of influence, speaks out about the events in Yerevan, that is, it exerts diplomatic pressure on Armenia.
The Turks are building an energy and transport corridor linking Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and going further to Central Asia with its energy and raw materials.
So far, Turkey, despite the problems in the economy and the fall of the lira, is doing well. It should be remembered that with the further development of the global economic crisis (Great Depression - 2), Turkey may be tempted to stop internal problems and discontent of the population (especially in large cities) with victories on external fronts.
At the same time, Britain is again on the side of Turkey. The USA and Germany are arming the Turks. Obviously, under Biden, Washington will find a common language with Erdogan.
Russia is not ready for war
If Turkey is taking off, then everything is complicated with us.
There is no full-fledged alliance with China. With the US and the EU - in contradiction. The economy is stagnant, as is social life. The combat effectiveness of the RF Armed Forces is in doubt. A real war is a war, not pretty pictures about the achievements of the military-industrial complex and the Armed Forces. The motivation of the contractors is questionable. For a salary, it is good to serve in peacetime, not in war. The draft lowered the level of combat training of the rank and file for a year.
In addition, the situation in society shows that Russia is not ready for war. The level of social injustice is off scale. A major external conflict can trigger a powerful internal social crisis. And the Kremlin understands this.
The combat experience of the Russian army is mainly reduced to actions against partisan, bandit formations in Chechnya and Syria. That is, we have no experience in deploying a group of millions, supplying and replenishing it to counter the enemy.
And the Turks have a regular army of an industrial-type country (one of the few countries in the world with such an army). This is over 600 thousand people, without a reserve and civilian personnel. The Turkish Armed Forces were formed with the help and experience of the Pentagon and the Bundeswehr.
The armament is at a good level, as is the training. There is experience of hostilities in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Karabakh.
The weakened economy of the Russian Federation cannot be quickly mobilized. If at all possible. There is a possibility that under the immediate strengthening of sanctions from the NATO countries (the US and the EU), the Russian economy will collapse.
In addition, the West will give Turkey money for the war. And Moscow will have to fight at its own expense. At the same time, various streams of the "fifth column" will try to weaken the state. That is, the Russian-Turkish war could become fatal for Moscow, since the scenario of February 1917 is possible.
Shown on TRT1 in Turkey, an annexation map by US intelligence and analysis group Stratfor shows Ankara's long-term plans.
The new Turkish Empire includes territories that were previously part of the Sublime Port. The Turks have already outlined their interests in Iraq, Syria and Libya. The Arab monarchies, with the richest resources, but weak armies (de facto they are protected by the American "roof"), Egypt, Greece are under threat. The Turkish sphere of influence includes the areas of the disintegrated USSR and the current Russian Federation: the South and North Caucasus, historical Turkestan, Astrakhan, Krasnodar and Crimea. Obviously, Turkey is also interested in the Black Sea coast of Ukraine, the Middle Volga region of Russia.
In the long term, the Turks do not even need to fight. You just have to wait for the further degradation and extinction of Russia (as well as Ukraine).
The Russian Federation loses about one Russian region a year. Previously, this process was hampered by the influx of migrants. This also worsened the national security of the Russian state: erosion, assimilation and degradation of the state-forming Russian ethnos. The rise in ethnic crime. The emergence of ethnic enclaves destroying a single space of the country. The threat of riots by aliens and infidels. But now even the inflow of migrants, due to the loss of economic attractiveness of the Russian Federation, has sharply decreased.
With current demographic depressing trends, Russians will not survive the XNUMXst century. At least as a united nation. Only the Russian-speaking ethnographic mass will remain, material for other, more viable ethnic groups, cultures and civilizations. Plus small communities of ideological Russians, like Old Believers.
In Turkey, the population is growing rapidly. From 1950 to 1985, the country's population grew 2,5 times. In 2000, there were 67 million people in Turkey, in 2005 - 70 million, in 2013 - 77 million, in 2020 - 83 million. Over the past ten years, the annual natural increase in the population of the Republic of Turkey has been 800-900 thousand people. That is, the nation is showing its vitality. In the foreseeable future, the Turks are quite capable of colonizing several regions of the dying out Russian Federation and Little Russia (Ukraine).
Caucasus, Crimea and Donbass
It is also worth remembering that Turkey is a NATO member.
That is, Russia will not be able to concentrate all its forces on the fight against the Turks. Part of the forces of the RF Armed Forces will be tied up in the Scandinavian (intensification of hostile activity in Finland, Norway and Sweden), the Baltic, including Kaliningrad, and the Belarusian-Polish directions. It is possible that NATO will allow itself a provocation against Russia in the Kaliningrad region.
Plus the attention of the United States and Japan to the Kuriles and the Russian Far East in general. Western Europe will not fight for the Turks, and it cannot already. But here's a full blown tantrum in the spirit
"Russian barbarians are coming"
will suit. With the simultaneous strengthening of sanctions.
The Karabakh scenario in Ukraine with Turkey's participation is also very visible.
Targets - Donbass and Crimea. Here Russia will have to fight on two fronts - against Turkey and Ukraine (250 thousand group). The Turks will try to blow up the North Caucasus, which has been sliding into the past for 30 years. Georgia, Moldova, Poland and Romania will be connected to help Ukraine.
Thus, the West, with the help of Turkey, plans to carry out a complete restructuring of the Middle East (has been going on since the "Arab Spring"), Central Asia, the Caucasus, South Russia, including New and Little Russia (Ukraine).
Russia will be cut off from the Black Sea, realizing an old dream of the British crown.
In these conditions, when there is very little time left (how long will the current pause last - a year, two, three?), The Kremlin needs to make
"Revolution from above".
To restore order in the country with the simultaneous mobilization of the economy and society (What to do when "refrigerator beats TV").
Strategic planning. The image of the future of the Russian state and people. A radical change in the pro-Western course. And a bold leap forward.