Military Review

American observer: Armenia nullified victory in the First Karabakh war in 44 days

44

On November 9, 2020, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed an agreement with Azerbaijan on a ceasefire, which became a confirmation of the defeat of Yerevan. Thus, in 44 days, during which the hostilities continued, Armenia nullified the victory in the First Karabakh War, won in 1994.


Michael A. Reynolds, an American columnist and director of the Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies Program at Princeton University, writes about this on the War on the Rocks portal.

What happened in Transcaucasia is perfectly illustrated by the statement of Karl von Clausewitz:

In war, the result is never final.

The escalation of the conflict between Yerevan and Baku into a hot phase was predictable, since Azerbaijan had been openly preparing for it for a long time. Its outcome was also easy to predict, since the Azerbaijani armed forces were significantly superior to the Armenian ones, and one should not forget about Turkey's support either.

But the illogical behavior of Armenia in this situation is surprising. It is unclear why she pushed away Russia, her only ally, and deliberately provoked enemies in Baku and Ankara to take action.

Now it remains to observe how Azerbaijan will dispose of its victory. After all, Clausewitz's words are as relevant now for Baku as they were for Yerevan in 1994.

As for Armenia, according to the Armenian political scientist Arman Grigoryan, the best moment has come for it to soberly assess its weak and strong sides. If she doesn't, then the 2020 defeat won't be the last.

To remind, on January 11, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan for the first time held face-to-face talks in Moscow. The invitation to Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev was sent by President Vladimir Putin.
Photos used:
Facebook / Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan
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  1. Tagan
    Tagan 13 January 2021 12: 48
    +17
    Soros did not teach how to win and how to be friends with Russia.
    1. Ratmir_Ryazan
      Ratmir_Ryazan 13 January 2021 13: 20
      +24
      Soros just won.

      His task was to tear Armenia away from Russia and they did it.

      With the arrival of Pashinyan, Russian-language TV channels began to be banned in Armenia, pro-war propaganda was activated, and Karabakh gave Pashinyan so that a little later Armenia could join NATO and maybe the EU.

      NATO membership will give Armenia an imaginary protection against Turkey, but it will really make it possible to finally break all military and economic ties with Russia. This is the goal of the West, and Soros is just a person through whom all this is done.

      But with all this, living in Armenia will be even harder, but this will become clear later, but for now, the Armenians will be promoting the movement of the country to the West under the promise of a sweet life.

      Many Armenians, with the arrival of Pashinyan, said that if necessary, then Karabakh could be abandoned.

      The Armenians sold out for cheap - for promises of a good life while doing nothing beyond what they are doing now.

      And this does not happen.
      1. Machito
        Machito 13 January 2021 13: 33
        -5
        Soros lost, Putin won. Military bases, peacekeepers, transport communications will further tie Azerbaijan and Armenia to Russia. NATO in flight.
        1. Kronos
          Kronos 13 January 2021 13: 59
          +4
          Azerbaijan is firmly attached to Turkey.
          1. Machito
            Machito 13 January 2021 14: 58
            +3
            Quote: Kronos
            Azerbaijan is firmly attached to Turkey.

            But he won with our weapons. You cannot achieve victory by Bayraktars alone.
            1. Pereira
              Pereira 13 January 2021 15: 06
              +4
              Azerbaijan does not need our weapons anymore. Firstly, there is no one to fight with anymore. Secondly, wherever possible, it reorients itself to Turkish.
              1. Tatyana
                Tatyana 13 January 2021 15: 46
                0
                In 44 days Armenia nullified the victory in the First Karabakh war

                The events in Armenia in the spring of 2018 were a classic color revolution, only with some national specifics. This specificity is that Armenia is in a hostile environment (Turkey and Azerbaijan) and allied relations with Russia for her is a matter of survival. Therefore, turning Armenia into another anti-Russian outpost of the West is a difficult task. But, in principle, for the West, a solvable and this was done and is being done with the help of Soros.

                Pashinyan denies all accusations of his ties with Soros, saying that the Soros Foundation started working in Armenia in 1997 and worked perfectly under Presidents Kocharian and Sargsyan. However, at that time, NGOs in the republic eked out a marginal existence. Everything changed with the coming to power of Pashinyan.
                In March 2019, Soros-funded NGOs in the RA were exempt from taxes. The aggregate annual budget of 40 leading pro-Western NGOs in Armenia is over $ 33 million. 15 of them receive from one to two million dollars a year. Moreover, the origin of these funds is not always clear.
                Soros' scholarship holders, who took an active part in the velvet revolution, immediately settled down on all branches and in all government offices and constitute up to 20% of the "My Step" faction (supporters of the prime minister, now constituting a parliamentary majority). These are 88 deputies.

                As in Moldova, in Armenia, the “non-governmental sector” of the Soros Foundation acts as a parallel power, which, under Pashinyan, closely merged with the constitutional power.

                These days a new revolution is taking place in Armenia, this time against Pashinyan. It began with the fact that, outraged by the loss in the war, the Armenians defeated there are several buildings in Yerevan, including the office of the Soros Foundation.

                But the majority in the power of Armenia still remains with the "sorosyatniki" and they are unlikely to betray ordinary Armenians, Armenia and Russia once again.
                1. Tatyana
                  Tatyana 13 January 2021 17: 27
                  -1
                  Quote: Bearded
                  Soros lost, Putin won. Military bases, peacekeepers, transport communications will further tie Azerbaijan and Armenia to Russia. NATO in flight.

                  Of course, there is a gain for Russia from its peacekeeping mission in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but it is still not so unambiguous for the future, since Russia will still need to work and work on this, invest and invest!
                  For the neo-Ottomanist Erdogan and the Islamists who support him both inside their country and abroad are playing against Russia for a long time to create a new Turan.
                  Moreover, at the same time, the interests of other countries - the same USA and NATO countries - combine with the interests of Turkey against Russia.
                  And the Russians need to see and take into account all these interests and prospects against Russia now, and not later, when it will be too late.

                  Here about it: about Turkey (Erdogan), Azerbaijan (Aliyev), Russia, the former Soviet Central Asian republics, NATO and the US, Iran and Israel - just very well tells and clearly explains what's what, political scientist Sergei Mikheev. See video below from 34:12 to 39:04 min.
                  It just makes no sense for me to retell the analyst Mikheev in my own words - it's easier to listen to her from him. And he says the right things.

                  Iron logic (18.12.20/XNUMX/XNUMX). Full video. See from 34:12 to 39:04 min.
        2. Ratmir_Ryazan
          Ratmir_Ryazan 13 January 2021 15: 01
          +7
          What are the bases ?! Come to your senses, our bases in Armenia are only due to the fact that the Armenians themselves wanted it, because they previously understood that Russia is an ally in the confrontation with Turkey, and now the State Department will decide everything for them.

          After 5 years, the Russian peacekeepers will be asked to leave after the expiration of the agreement, as will the military bases in Armenia.

          Everything that we spend on this peacekeeping operation will be only expenses for us, and no one will thank us for the saved lives of the Armenians, all this will be instantly forgotten, just like it was forgotten in Georgia.

          Everything is going on in the same way as with Georgia, there were also our military bases there not so long ago, and now exercises are underway with NATO troops. At the same time, Georgia sells its wine, mineral water on our market, buys resources from us, receives money from millions of our tourists and shouts that Russia is an aggressor and an occupier, forgetting about the genocide that they staged in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the 90s.

          A little later, the Armenians will also shout at every corner that if it were not for the "bad" quality of Russian weapons, they would have already been in Baku, in general, not they, but Russia, will be to blame for the defeat.

          Russia needs to worry less about others, it needs to make itself richer and stronger !!!

          Everyone wants to be friends with the rich and strong, but they only use the good and consider them fools.

          I don't know, maybe our command and the leader have some kind of plan to contain Turkey, but for me it would be better if these funds that were used for the peacekeeping operation were spent on a couple of additional corvettes or a frigate for the Pacific Fleet or something else we need.
          1. Pereira
            Pereira 13 January 2021 15: 21
            0
            Russia needs to worry less about others, it needs to make itself richer and stronger !!!

            Nice words. And before that, everything was true.
            Only no one is going to make us richer. Instead, we are shown grandiose victories, such as the Karabakh one.
            1. Ratmir_Ryazan
              Ratmir_Ryazan 14 January 2021 15: 43
              0
              Only no one is going to make us richer. Instead, we are shown grandiose victories, such as the Karabakh one.


              They gather and do, only the citizens and themselves need to make efforts.

              Collecting only Lada 350 units and Kamaz trucks 50 units each, we will not live like Germans, Japanese, Americans or Koreans, where more than 000 units are produced only for cars.

              And so on for all other goods, from food to clothing. We ourselves must produce everything and of such quality that our goods are in demand at least in our country.

              A country cannot live richly on resources alone.

              Russian exports are 450 billion dollars a year.

              40% of about 200 billion dollars is the export of oil and gas.

              Divide $ 200 billion by 147 million people and get $ 1360 per YEAR in revenue, that's $ 113 a month, and now exclude mining and transportation costs, employee wages, and equipment depreciation.

              Well, what will be left there ?! Clearly less than $ 100 per person.

              Are you living on this money? No.

              In general, we need to work and develop ourselves and our country.
          2. XXXIII
            XXXIII 13 January 2021 19: 08
            0
            Quote: Ratmir_Ryazan
            After 5 years, the Russian peacekeepers will be asked to leave after the expiration of the agreement, as will the military bases in Armenia.

            Everything that we spend on this peacekeeping operation will be only expenses for us, and no one will thank us for the saved lives of the Armenians, all this will be instantly forgotten, just like it was forgotten in Georgia.

            The Armenians have time to raise their morale and arm themselves, to recognize the rest of Karabakh as Armenia. If not, well sorry. It should be clear to the Armenians. The defense of the USSR has already been eaten by the allies, now only on mutually beneficial terms. But even now the allies do not understand, and everyone is waiting for help from Russia, a bad habit.
            1. alone
              alone 14 January 2021 11: 07
              +1
              Quote: XXXIII
              The Armenians have time to raise their morale and arm themselves, to recognize the rest of Karabakh as Armenia.

              If they do this, it will already be a disaster for them. Even Russia will not help them in anything, on the contrary, they will be the first to get it in the head from Russia. Such actions will mean that they don’t care about the paper where Russia’s signature is. Do you think Russia will forgive this? No wonder Putin said that if Armenia does not agree to fulfill the points of the agreement, everything will end in disaster for her
              1. XXXIII
                XXXIII 14 January 2021 11: 46
                0
                Quote: lonely
                Quote: XXXIII
                The Armenians have time to raise their morale and arm themselves, to recognize the rest of Karabakh as Armenia.

                If they do this, it will already be a disaster for them. Even Russia will not help them in anything, on the contrary, they will be the first to get it in the head from Russia. Such actions will mean that they don’t care about the paper where Russia’s signature is. Do you think Russia will forgive this? No wonder Putin said that if Armenia does not agree to fulfill the points of the agreement, everything will end in disaster for her

                All this can be agreed, why does the Russian Federation need this buffer conflict, it must be resolved by the hands of the Armenians. Azerbaijan recognizes Karabakh, why not Armenians? They cannot or do not want to, this territory should develop in a peaceful way, and not be a permanent pretext for war.
                1. alone
                  alone 14 January 2021 12: 25
                  0
                  Quote: XXXIII
                  Azerbaijan recognizes Karabakh, why not Armenians?

                  Where did you read that Azerbaijan recognizes Karabakh? This is nonsense ..
                  1. XXXIII
                    XXXIII 14 January 2021 15: 35
                    +1
                    Quote: lonely
                    Quote: XXXIII
                    Azerbaijan recognizes Karabakh, why not Armenians?

                    Where did you read that Azerbaijan recognizes Karabakh? This is nonsense ..

                    Ask them better.))
                    1. alone
                      alone 14 January 2021 18: 32
                      0
                      Quote: XXXIII
                      Ask them better.))

                      If Azerbaijan would recognize Karabakh, there would be no need for us to discuss the results of the 44th day war here ..
                      1. XXXIII
                        XXXIII 14 January 2021 20: 33
                        0
                        Quote: lonely
                        Quote: XXXIII
                        Ask them better.))

                        If Azerbaijan would recognize Karabakh, there would be no need for us to discuss the results of the 44th day war here ..

                        Actually, it is Azerbaijan that considers Karabakh its annexed territory, for which it waged a war.
                      2. alone
                        alone 14 January 2021 22: 51
                        +1
                        Quote: XXXIII
                        Actually, it is Azerbaijan that considers Karabakh its annexed territory, for which it waged a war.

                        I know ... that's why I am surprised that in your commentary you wrote that Azerbaijan recognized Karabakh hi
                        Quote: XXXIII
                        Azerbaijan recognizes Karabakh,
                      3. XXXIII
                        XXXIII 15 January 2021 00: 09
                        0
                        Quote: lonely
                        I know ... that's why I am surprised that in your commentary you wrote that Azerbaijan recognized Karabakh

                        And you mean the agreement, which confused me, because Azerbaijan signed the agreement and does not refuse it. Under this agreement, he recognizes part of the territory he returned. But the Armenians are silent, as if they recognize, but the Karabakh territory, but not the very part of Karabakh. Part of them Karabakh, in their understanding, remained Karabakh, but not Armenia. That means they will exchange war again when they need it.
  2. Nastia makarova
    Nastia makarova 13 January 2021 13: 44
    -4
    all the way around)))) Soros lost to Armenia
    1. credo
      credo 13 January 2021 14: 20
      +2
      Quote: Nastia Makarova
      all the way around)))) Soros lost to Armenia

      Here is just the case when you should again remember the phrase - In war, the result is never final.
      Since Russia was able, without the United States and France, to seat the conflicting parties at the negotiating table and end the hot stage of the war, it seems like Russia turned out to be in the black, but knowing the goals of the Anglo-Saxons in relation to Russia, one should expect that their actions will intensify among the opponents of the current government in Armenia and Azerbaijan, in order to overthrow Aliyev and Pashinyan and the resumption of the war on the borders of Russia.
      So having pacified the "fighters" Russia has not yet been able to isolate them from the instigators, and it means that it is clearly premature to talk about someone's obvious victory.
    2. XXXIII
      XXXIII 13 January 2021 19: 11
      0
      Quote: Nastia Makarova
      all the way around)))) Soros lost to Armenia

      If Pashinyan has soros (sauce) in his head, then yes, soros lost. True, maybe he didn't need a victory, but only a game with the natives.))
  3. GKA72
    GKA72 13 January 2021 14: 28
    -1
    If Karabakh was completely surrendered, then yes, Soros won. And it was as you write, right up to the entry of Armenia into NATO. And then Azerbaijan goes there too. At the same time, no one would ask Aliyev, they simply removed him.
    1. Ratmir_Ryazan
      Ratmir_Ryazan 13 January 2021 15: 03
      +2
      Karabakh is completely surrendered, this is all Azerbaijan now !!!

      Armenians were simply allowed to live there for 5 years under the protection of peacekeepers, and then under the Azerbaijani army and Azerbaijani police.

      That's it, Karabakh is Azerbaijan. The same area as everyone else.
      1. GKA72
        GKA72 13 January 2021 17: 54
        0
        No one doubts that legal Karabakh is Azrbaydzhan, but in fact for the next 5 years it is Russian. And for the next 5 years, the issue of Baku and Yerevan joining NATO is closed. And if you do not consider the Karabakh issue as a national one, you will understand that the undefined status of Karabakh is needed first of all by Aliyev himself, otherwise the Azerbaijani troops would have reached the borders of Armenia, as it was supposed according to the plans of the United States and Britain.
        1. alone
          alone 14 January 2021 11: 10
          0
          Quote: GKA72
          otherwise, the Azrbaydzhan troops would have reached the borders of Armenia,

          Azerbaijani troops are already on the border with Armenia along its entire length. Nagorno-Karabakh did not have a direct border with Armenia.
          1. GKA72
            GKA72 14 January 2021 11: 30
            +1
            do not juggle, you perfectly understood that I mean full control of Karabakh, and now Baku does not have it.
            1. alone
              alone 14 January 2021 12: 35
              -1
              Quote: GKA72
              do not juggle, you perfectly understood that I mean full control of Karabakh, and now Baku does not have it.

              Full control is an extensible concept ... It is true, there are territories where there is no presence of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan. But if you think about it, it will bring Azerbaijan more headaches now than, say, in 2-3 years ... The border between Azerbaijan and Armenia is tightly closed (The corridor under control of the MS, and any provocation is already a headache for the Russian MS), all strategic and tactical advantageous positions militarily are in the hands of Azerbaijan. I will tell you more, there was no such situation in the conflict even in 1988. In 44 days Azerbaijan achieved its maximum what could have been achieved. one capture of the city of Shusha is worth something. A favorite phrase of Armenian politicians: "Whoever has Shusha, has the whole of Nagorno-Karabakh"
  • Vend
    Vend 13 January 2021 13: 56
    +4
    Armenia’s illogical behavior in this situation is surprising.
    Why is it illogical what the American curators said, then Pashinyan did. laughing
  • RealPilot
    RealPilot 17 January 2021 17: 09
    0
    American Pashinyan brought grief for Armenians ... sad

    Soros never cared about social consequences; in the person of him and his organizations, the Western ruling clans solve their long-term geopolitical tasks ...
    Not even himself now, he will soon have a game of poker with old Rockefeller.

    But I can quote the GDP that the collapse of the USSR is the greatest tragedy.
  • Guru
    Guru 13 January 2021 12: 54
    +6
    Armenia’s illogical behavior in this situation is surprising. It is unclear why she pushed away Russia, her only ally, and deliberately provoked enemies in Baku and Ankara to take action.
    This is a key saying, Armenians are playing too much.
    1. Anatoly 288
      Anatoly 288 13 January 2021 13: 08
      +10
      I completely understand Aliyev, well done. And Nicholas cannot understand, where it is necessary to build - broke and demolished everything to the root! And in the end - a broken trough!
  • Prisoner
    Prisoner 13 January 2021 13: 05
    +8
    Grand merci svolote Pashinyan and dollars Soros. Russia is not a fool, (and has long been) for the Russophobic goats in power to fit in.
  • Avior
    Avior 13 January 2021 13: 23
    +4
    In 44 days Armenia nullified the victory in the First Karabakh war

    it would be more correct to say that in 30 years, when the difference in the economic potential of Armenia and Azerbaijan reached unimaginable proportions and Armenia had no chances to achieve military parity even with Russian loans for weapons, at least there was no question of superiority. Probably, the Armenian leadership should have been engaged in the country's economy for 30 years.
    she pushed away Russia, her only ally, and deliberately provoked enemies in Baku and Ankara to take action

    Are Armenian political analysts sure that Russia should have fought with Armenia for the interests of Karabakh, unrecognized by Armenia itself? And they asked Russia its opinion on this matter?
    And what about provoking enemies in Baku - and the Armenian military in Karabakh, by their presence there, did they not provoke them to active actions?
  • apro
    apro 13 January 2021 13: 28
    0
    The value of Armenia for the Russian Federation .. actually is equal to zero. But to pump money. To contain the wb why is it necessary ... it is not clear why.
  • Tagan
    Tagan 13 January 2021 13: 28
    +4
    Quote: Ratmir_Ryazan
    Soros just won.

    I agree. I focused on Armenia, which wasted everything.
  • svoit
    svoit 13 January 2021 13: 46
    -1
    And what if Pashinyan didn’t quarrel with Russia, because he didn’t annoy us that much, Russia would help keep the NKR security zone? Do you think Armenia would not like to recognize the NKR with a security zone or even include these territories in its structure? Russia, among other things, did not allow her to do this for 25 years. At the same time, without giving any guarantees.
    1. GKA72
      GKA72 13 January 2021 14: 31
      +1
      The NKR themselves did not really want to be part of Armenia.
    2. Yura
      Yura 13 January 2021 14: 52
      +4
      Quote: svoit
      Do you think Armenia would not like to recognize the NKR with a security zone or even include these territories in its structure?

      Would like to admit. Russia did not recognize the NKR, so what? What guarantees should and why "should" be given to Armenia for recognition or not. In the case of the NKR, Armenia violated every conceivable law of the international community on the inviolability of borders. But in addition to Karabakh, there were like 7 regions annexed from Azerbaijan by Armenia. Armenia wanted to do dirty deeds behind the back of Russia. This will not work and will not be so. And yes, Russia has once again saved the Armenians, who have reached the handle according to their own understanding and desire, and let the Armenians not think that they are "prettier and smarter", they themselves climbed into the chess game as a pawn, which of course can become a queen, but only in the hands of a grandmaster.
      1. Sea breeze
        Sea breeze 13 January 2021 21: 04
        +2
        We have repeatedly stated this, since there is no "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic". Nobody recognizes such a "republic". Let Armenia, if it has enough courage, recognize the "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic". So I say: the authorities of Armenia, recognize it. Admit it today, if you do not admit it, then you are afraid. Think about it! There will be no negotiations with the gangster, criminal regime. Therefore, they should know in advance that this is absolutely unacceptable, ”President Ilham Aliyev said.
  • Thrifty
    Thrifty 13 January 2021 14: 39
    +5
    The Armenians experienced a hangover at someone else's feast, but again only Russia is to blame for this, since the Russians did not rush under the Turkish-Azerbaijani missiles and bombs. ... we are so bad, it turns out. .. crying lol
  • Selevc
    Selevc 15 January 2021 00: 11
    0
    But the illogical behavior of Armenia in this situation is surprising. It is unclear why she pushed away Russia, her only ally, and deliberately provoked enemies in Baku and Ankara to take action.
    There is nothing surprising. Pashinyan and Co. had the task of pushing Armenia as quickly as possible to a war with Azerbaijan.

    The defeat of Armenia in the war and the loss of Karabakh may cause Armenia to turn to the West, Georgia has already gone there, the Turks are actively taking Azerbaijan there - Russia is losing all of the Transcaucasia. This is the meaning of pushing Armenia into the war and it is obvious !!!
  • Seal
    Seal 19 January 2021 17: 04
    0
    Quote: Ratmir_Ryazan
    NATO membership will give Armenia imaginary protection against Turkey
    Well, does Turkey put forward any territorial claims against the Republic of Armenia? In my opinion, just the opposite, it is Armenia that claims to Ararat and Ararat volost.