Military Review

VTsIOM: do Russians want wars? How is it in Karabakh?

28

I used to have to worry



The Armenian-Azerbaijani war has become one of the most powerful negative shocks for many Russians. That is, for 72 percent of those surveyed by experts from the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM).

It is characteristic that all these people did not just know about the war and closely followed the events. Most of them still seriously fear grave consequences. Such conclusions were made public by VTsIOM specialists during an online briefing held on Monday at TASS.

VTsIOM presented rather detailed data of its research on how well Russians are informed about the events that took place in Nagorno-Karabakh. In addition, sociologists tried to assess how the war is perceived in Russia and what predictions are being made by Russians regarding the future of this region.

The Center's General Director Valery Fedorov noted that the already established perception of the Transcaucasus as “not our region”, as other countries, albeit connected with Russia, now has a very serious impact on the assessments of citizens.

It is hardly surprising that the long-awaited reports on the conclusion of an agreement on the cessation of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh were perceived positively by the absolute majority of Russians (81%). Representatives of the older (94% of 60+) and middle generations (88% of 45–59 years old) far outstripped their younger compatriots in this respect, with an indicator of 64%.

Who's next?


The most disturbing thing, according to Galina Gradoselskaya, a leading sociologist at the Stolitsa Social Research Agency, is that the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is clearly something like a trial run or rehearsal of similar scenarios for other neighboring regions of Russia.

The expert believes that the most dangerous zone in this respect is Transnistria, where, however, everything may turn out not at all in favor of those who are already ready to provoke a conflict there.

Yes, the potential union of Moldova (with its new president) and Ukraine, where politicians are now, without hiding, looking for a way out (more precisely, an outlet) for radical sentiments, threatens the region - a pro-Russian and de facto autonomous.

But the answer could be a direct demarche of the Odessa region against the dominance of Kiev and complete indifference to the situation on the part of Romania. However, in Kiev, and now some in Chisinau, they do not want to take into account that, in all respects, normal relations with Russia are much more important for Bucharest than a dubious alliance with Moldova and friendship with an unstable Ukraine.

At the same time, the export of interethnic (and other kinds) conflicts to other regions is not very likely now, according to publicist and political scientist Armen Gasparyan, as well as journalist and orientalist Igor Dimitriev. The conflict potential of Donbass, according to their estimates, is now much lower than even a year ago.

Just like, by the way, the degree of voltage in Belarus, which has dropped to almost zero in a few months. In the latter, moreover, no one has managed to find (apart from Minsk itself) any other real boiling point.

Many (even too much) potentially hot spots, in the opinion of all the experts who spoke at TASS, remain in Central Asia. However, a quite obvious integration trend has emerged there, more and more clearly overlapping the trend towards direct collisions.

Export war


At least a quarter of the young population of Russia, and even more in the provinces, have practically no idea what happened this fall in the Transcaucasus. At the same time, a third of the young respondents surveyed by VTsIOM are ill, believe that the role of Russia in the settlement of the conflict was insignificant, moreover, secondary.

Apparently, most of those who answered in this way also consider the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh unnecessary, inappropriate and even harmful or dangerous. At the same time, 15% of Russians reported their indifference to the conflict. And much more often (almost twice) such answers were given by respondents aged 25 to 34.

26% of Russian respondents are not at all interested in events in the region. And much more often these are young people 18-24 and 25-34 years old (44% and 51%, respectively). In this regard, many of the experts deeply studying the situation in the Transcaucasus express well-founded fears in connection with such deliberate political infantilism of the Russians.

After all, we are talking about people of that age who can really be involved in a kind of export of the conflict outside a narrow region. Director of the Institute for Political Studies Sergey Markov is generally convinced that the Armenian-Azerbaijani war has already “come to us”.

This is especially noticeable in terms of information. At the same time, despite all the efforts of one of the parties to the conflict in creating a “negative image of Armenians,” it has not developed in the minds of most Russians.

In general, according to Valery Fedorov,

“The attitude of Russians to what is happening in Karabakh can be characterized as interested distancing. There are, of course, positive emotions in the sense that Russia managed not to interfere in this conflict. "

Winning is not yet convincing


The experts almost unanimously admitted that the policy of deliberate openness turned out to be not very effective, which was actively, even aggressively used by the winning side. Moreover, to a large extent, the conflict was broadcasted directly to Russia.

As you know, even before the active military phase of the conflict, there was a whole series of interethnic clashes, fortunately, not with such dire consequences as the war itself.

And it is no coincidence that, when asked who provoked the aggravation of the conflict, only 5% of the respondents thought that Armenia did it. Exactly the same number (5%) believed that the conflict was provoked by the United States. And even 6% of respondents accused Turkey of the same.

At the same time, 12% of the Russians surveyed by VTsIOM still attributed the "primacy" in inciting the conflict to Azerbaijan. Although the majority (33%) of respondents blamed both sides for the war.

Don't take advantage of the war


The Russians are in no hurry to change the national tradition of not seeking profit in the war. Thus, only 41% of respondents are convinced that both countries received benefits from the conclusion of a peace agreement. However, in comparison with similar polls of previous years, the indicator turned out to be quite high.

At the same time, only 20% of the respondents believe in the great victory of Azerbaijan and in the fact that it was he who received any real gain from the conflict. But, unlike young nihilists, most compatriots do not doubt that it was Russia that played a major role in resolving the crisis.

Thus, 84% of respondents aged 60 and over believe that the conclusion of a peace agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh is a direct merit of Russia. Among those who are between 45 and 59 years old, this figure is 77%. But among young people (18-24), 35% of the respondents consider the role of Russia to be secondary.

At the same time, both young and old are not too sure that there will be no more war. For example, only 39% of Russians have no doubts that in the future the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh will develop peacefully, more often the oldest (60+) - 46%.

A third of the respondents (31%) generally believe that the war will resume, although not soon. And only 12% predict a relapse of hostilities in the near future.
Author:
Photos used:
vciom.ru, echo.am
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  1. Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 10 December 2020 12: 14
    +14
    But the answer could be a direct demarche of the Odessa region against the dominance of Kiev
    What is this conclusion based on?
    1. The leader of the Redskins
      The leader of the Redskins 10 December 2020 12: 26
      +12
      On the desire to wishful thinking. Nothing else ...
      1. Daniil Konovalenko
        Daniil Konovalenko 10 December 2020 12: 43
        +5
        Oh, these storytellers. No irony.
        1. Mar.Tirah
          Mar.Tirah 10 December 2020 13: 42
          +3
          Quote: Daniil Konovalenko
          Oh, these storytellers. No irony.

          Blessed are those who believe. Especially with regard to the decency of Romania. She is straight asleep and sees the establishment of fraternal relations with Russia. Of course, it is not assumed that the entire Romanian leadership is under the tight control of the CIA, the US State Department, and the Pentagon, where positions in the leadership pass only through approval Americans. Where the largest CIA headquarters in Eastern Europe is. The owner will say and will do what they need. They are leverage in US policy against Russia.
      2. Normal ok
        Normal ok 10 December 2020 20: 34
        -2
        But the answer could be a direct demarche of the Odessa region against the dominance of Kiev and complete indifference to the situation on the part of Romania.

        The author smokes, something forbidden.
        1. Alex777
          Alex777 11 December 2020 00: 19
          -1
          There is something more natural than grass. wink
    2. Igoresha
      Igoresha 10 December 2020 12: 31
      +5
      genius authors already see the world)
    3. Svarog
      Svarog 10 December 2020 12: 36
      +10
      Quote: Daniil Konovalenko
      But the answer could be a direct demarche of the Odessa region against the dominance of Kiev
      What is this conclusion based on?

      To have demarches, there must be prerequisites. People are all the same and see that there is no point in fighting to be with the Russian Federation now. They see what is happening with the LPNR .. and how the Russian Federation behaved ..
      The conclusion is not based on anything.
      The Russian Federation should show by its own example that we have social justice, fair courts, replaceable leaders, and an increase in the well-being of citizens .. then the prerequisites would be .. serious .. And then the Bauman Moscow State Technical University does not know what to do now .. The US sanctions included ..and Microsoft refuses to service its program .. That's all the power of the Russian Federation on the face. So to speak, a clear example of achievements over 30 years.
      1. Daniil Konovalenko
        Daniil Konovalenko 10 December 2020 12: 45
        +3
        Р
        I must show by my own example that we have social justice, fair courts, replaceable leaders, and an increase in the well-being of citizens .. then the prerequisites would be .. serious
        ... And so it makes no sense to change the awl for soap.
      2. Victorio
        Victorio 10 December 2020 13: 13
        -4
        Quote: Svarog
        ... US sanctions included .. and Microsoft refuses to service its program .. That's all the power of the Russian Federation on the face. So to speak, a clear example of achievements over 30 years.

        ===
        ? in order to impose sanctions, to cause damage, slow down, upset.
        but no achievements over 30 years, well, no, in the country there)
        1. Svarog
          Svarog 10 December 2020 13: 24
          +6
          Quote: Victorio
          ? in order to impose sanctions, to cause damage, slow down, upset.
          but no achievements over 30 years, well, no, in the country there)

          The sanctions were included after 2014 .. and what did they do for 24 years .. what were they doing, buying yachts, building cottages in the england ..
          The USSR, too, was under sanctions and times were much more difficult by .. two wars which only cost .. however, Gagarin flew into space for the first time .. and were self-sufficient and independent.
          1. Victorio
            Victorio 10 December 2020 14: 23
            +1
            Quote: Svarog
            The sanctions were included after 2014.

            ===
            as sanctions, this whole epic began with the expansion of NATO to the east, and this was at the very end of the nineties. As the Russian Federation resisted, the effect of pressure and other changes decreased, the West used various levers. therefore, no matter what it is called, the purpose and purpose are the main thing.
            1. Aerodrome
              Aerodrome 10 December 2020 17: 07
              +3
              The Armenian-Azerbaijani war has become one of the most powerful negative shocks for many Russians. That is, for 72 percent of those surveyed by experts from the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM).
              I don’t know where "vtsyom" took the data, but everyone I know, and this is for a hundred, I’ll drum this Karabakh fuss, because, as the case itself has seams, don’t care the Armenians and Azerbaijan, we would have to figure it out ... ...
      3. Antonio_Mariarti
        Antonio_Mariarti 11 December 2020 12: 19
        -2
        Quote: Svarog
        Quote: Daniil Konovalenko
        But the answer could be a direct demarche of the Odessa region against the dominance of Kiev
        What is this conclusion based on?

        To have demarches, there must be prerequisites. People are all the same and see that there is no point in fighting to be with the Russian Federation now. They see what is happening with the LPNR .. and how the Russian Federation behaved ..
        The conclusion is not based on anything.
        The Russian Federation should show by its own example that we have social justice, fair courts, replaceable leaders, and an increase in the well-being of citizens .. then the prerequisites would be .. serious .. And then the Bauman Moscow State Technical University does not know what to do now .. The US sanctions included ..and Microsoft refuses to service its program .. That's all the power of the Russian Federation on the face. So to speak, a clear example of achievements over 30 years.

        Confrontation with the West is Russia's biggest mistake in the 21st century. After all, the dependence on the West was colossal, I am already silent that every year Western investors invested more and more in the Russian Federation, even at the discussion clubs the similarity of Valdai was discussed that Russia could become a similarity to China in industrial terms, but only in a more high-tech (2012-2013) It was not discussed at the level of gossip, the entry of the Russian Federation into NATO or a special treaty (2010-2013) exercises every year, a lot of treaties with NATO, discussion about the lack of luck with the EU, and so on. Everything was going well, the Russian economy after the 2008 crisis recovered quite quickly in 2012. But 2014 changed everything.
  2. Doctor
    Doctor 10 December 2020 12: 22
    +8
    26% of Russian respondents are not at all interested in events in the region. And much more often these are young people 18-24 and 25-34 years old (44% and 51%, respectively).

    For them, these are already other countries.
    As if for our generation the conflict between Pakistan and India.
  3. Knell wardenheart
    Knell wardenheart 10 December 2020 13: 17
    +6
    There is such an expression “How long the string doesn’t twist, but the end will come anyway” - all these “frozen” conflicts will sooner or later thaw out if one of the parties has economic, organizational or foreign policy advantages over the other. This is an axiom. Therefore, what we used to consider our or post-Soviet architecture in the CIS is a rather chimeric structure, not deprived of good strength. That 08.08.08, that Donbass, that this conflict, that Transnistria - even in our country, unfortunately, there are examples. All this is hastily patched up and is supported by a hypothesis in the style of "This cannot be, because this can never be."
  4. Jeweler
    Jeweler 10 December 2020 13: 20
    +6
    The Armenian-Azerbaijani war has become one of the most powerful negative shocks for many Russians.

    What's the shock? In what has grown from a "frozen" conflict into a hot stage? Or is it that Armenia has lost? Or is it that Turkey has become stronger in the region? Or maybe the shock was caused by the policy of the Kremlin? The Kremlin has repeatedly announced its victory over terrorists in Syria, and they ended up in Azerbaijan.
    1. Svarog
      Svarog 13 December 2020 00: 37
      +1
      The shock is that politicians did not want to solve the crisis through peace negotiations, but took up a military solution.
  5. Jeweler
    Jeweler 10 December 2020 13: 23
    +2
    But the answer could be a direct demarche of the Odessa region

    How will the demarche of the Odessa region be expressed? Will they announce the creation of the People's Republic? Or will they declare war on Moldova?
    1. Victorio
      Victorio 11 December 2020 13: 16
      +1
      Quote: Jeweler
      But the answer could be a direct demarche of the Odessa region

      What will be expressed demarche of the Odessa region? Will they announce the creation of the People's Republic? Or will they declare war on Moldova?

      ===
      all demarches, well, almost all, are now done for money. and even in Ukraine, yes in Odessa, and even more so)
  6. Jeweler
    Jeweler 10 December 2020 13: 34
    +2
    it was Russia that played a major role in resolving the crisis.

    The crisis has not been resolved. Only the fighting has been stopped. What will happen in 5, 10 or more years in the region is unknown.
    1. Svarog
      Svarog 13 December 2020 00: 36
      +3
      The main fighting stopped. Civilians do not suffer. Everything else is solvable.
  7. Doccor18
    Doccor18 10 December 2020 14: 06
    +4
    The Armenian-Azerbaijani war has become one of the most powerful negative shocks for many Russians. That is, for 72 percent of those surveyed by experts from the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM).

    And where does VTsIOM find such politicized respondents. For 72% it was a "shock" ...

    At the same time, 15% of Russians reported their indifference to the conflict. And much more often (almost twice) such answers were given by respondents aged 25 to 34 years.

    And here the numbers are clearly underestimated.

    ..many of the experts ... are expressing well-founded fears in connection with such a deliberate political infantilism of the Russians.

    And with this I absolutely agree.
  8. solzh
    solzh 10 December 2020 16: 25
    +25
    VTsIOM: do Russians want wars? How is it in Karabakh?

    Evgeny Yevtushenko Do Russians want wars? ..

    Do Russian wars want to happen?
    Ask you for silence
    over the expanse of arable land and fields
    and birches and poplars.
    You will ask those soldiers,
    that under the birches lie
    and let their sons tell you
    Do the Russians want war.

    Not only for your country
    the soldiers died in that war
    and so that people of the whole earth
    could easily dream.
    Under the rustle of leaves and posters
    You sleep, New York, you sleep, Paris.
    May your dreams answer you
    Do the Russians want war.

    Yes, we know how to fight,
    but do not want to again
    soldiers fell in battle
    to his sad land.
    You will ask your mother,
    ask my wife
    and then you must understand
    Do the Russians want war.
    1. iouris
      iouris 10 December 2020 18: 52
      +6
      That was the generation that survived the war. Now few people understand what kind of war it was and what the people went through, in general, which people won and at what cost. They knew what they certainly didn't want.
      They are not us. RF is not the USSR. I think the United States does not believe that the Russians will retaliate, and they have reasons. And today little depends on what the general public wants. Moreover, any "Wishlist" of the population can be promoted through the media.
      The poll showed that today young people are willingly "rooting" ("fanning") for the winner, giggling at the "loser" ... If Armenia won, they would "root" for Armenia. In fact, today the war looks and is viewed from the outside as a football match, the corpses of people on TV are almost like a picture from a fashionable "shooter". The spinal cord gets used to this in the fifth grade. And not everyone develops the upper level of consciousness.
      Do the "Russians" want to live in their own state, are they ready for a long and difficult unequal struggle for their survival, are there those who are capable and ready to lead this struggle and bring it to victory? Or it will be like in Karabakh.
      1. Doccor18
        Doccor18 10 December 2020 21: 16
        +7
        Do the "Russians" want to live in their own state, are they ready for a long and difficult unequal struggle for their survival, are there those who are capable and ready to lead this struggle and bring it to victory? Or it will be like in Karabakh.

        Look at teenagers milling about, electronic cigarettes, beer, etc. and sadness covers ...
        And then you will see another change on the maroon beret and calm down, not everything is still gone.
        1. iouris
          iouris 12 December 2020 12: 10
          +4
          Quote: Doccor18
          then you will see another change on the maroon beret and calm down

          Almost everyone smokes and drinks beer, but there are almost no hunters to rent the maroon.
  9. raif
    raif 12 December 2020 19: 40
    0
    some kind of garbage, politely speaking, tk. write about some percentage from unknown polls, which initially cannot be verified. traditionally either nonsense zhurnoshlyuh, or someone's "order", to know for what.
    In terms of communication with former colleagues throughout the country, I will say that the Donbass of 2014-2015 was much more interesting for everyone. no one mentions Karabakh at all, as well as Libya, for example.
    relatives and fellow countrymen were actively interested in Donbass - in terms of the possible involvement of the Russian Armed Forces in an open war. no one asked a single question about the NKR.
    that our youth is absolutely not interested in politics - not at all a discovery