The rise of China helped to normalize Russian-Japanese relations
Unsolvable conflict
Rapidly emerging and rapidly fading military conflicts between countries. A rapidly changing international environment. The multi-vector policy of small countries, which periodically provokes the indignation of one of the partners of these countries. And other events that were simply impossible until recently. Or were the subject of lengthy discussions in international organizations. All this has led to the fact that interest in long-standing and long-standing intractable conflicts somehow faded away. Interest faded, but the problem remained.
The press (including on the pages of "Military Review") periodically pops up the topic of our relations with Japan. This usually happens after the next statement by some Japanese politician or military man about the need to return the disputed islands of the Kuril ridge. Explosion after the statement. And silence after the answer of our President or Minister of Foreign Affairs. Everything is clear and understandable. The topic is over.
I have been asked for a long time to cover this issue in more detail. Talk not about the balance of forces and means of Russia and Japan in this region. Not about the possibility of a nuclear strike by Russia. And about why the problem of the "northern territories" today has turned into an element of the pre-election struggle rather than a real one. The economic use of the coast of these islands by Japan has been going on for a long time. Russia has repeatedly offered the Japanese to invest in these islands and develop their industries there.
China is a key player in the region
It seems to me that when we talk about the disputed islands, we forget about one of the key players in this region. About the PRC. The ideas of the majority of ordinary people about the economic and military power of this state got stuck somewhere at the end of the last century. We compare missiles Tanks, ships. We must point out that they very much resemble Western or Russian systems. Even the weapons that are the second, third and even fourth generations of those first copies, we do not yet perceive as exactly Chinese.
I decided to start describing the warring parties from China for one reason. Much of what is done there is really copied from us. But there are some nuances that we should think about already. And copy them yourself. And a lot of materials have been written about the state of our army and our diplomacy. Let's leave this question for other articles.
There is probably no person in our country who has not heard about the disputed islands. Every Russian has already developed his own opinion on this issue, which I will not dispute. But if we consider historical A retrospective of relations between China and Japan, the Chinese have much more claims to the Japanese. This is a centuries-old unhealed wound for the Chinese. These are hundreds of thousands of families for whom the Japanese troops (in relation to them ordinary people) are about the same as the Nazis are to us.
No one says that the Chinese army and the PRC as a whole are not among the ten leading countries in the world. Moreover, most analysts point out that it is China that rules the show in the region today. All the "eastern tigers" that became such with the active economic and military support of the United States receded into the background. Including Japan.
Why China Terrifies Japanese Politicians
If we analyze the documents that have got into open sources, and most importantly, what has been done in the PRC in the last decade on strengthening the army and the country's defense capability, we can say with confidence that China is carrying out a powerful military reform. From top to bottom. Starting with changes in strategic doctrine and ending with changes in the structure of the armed forces.
First of all, the Chinese are officially talking about war at all levels. That is, now the war in Chinese is not an armed conflict, not a confrontation between the military, but what we used to call a hybrid war. Back in 1999, the book "Unlimited War" by two active PLA soldiers, Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, was published. It was in this book that the Chinese first spoke openly about a multi-vector war. That today war can and should be waged by all available means.
Constant war
The Chinese colonels have expressed the idea that the war is being fought almost constantly. Moreover, the book names about 25 areas of such wars. Nothing out of the ordinary for a modern reader, but for 1999 it was unusual. War Intelligence or conventional war (as well as diplomatic) is routine. But it also named such types of wars as terrorist, financial, legal, media, psychological and others. How right were these Chinese officers today?
The second most important stage of the reform was the change in the structure of army management. Xi Jinping became the Supreme Commander of the Military Council of the CPC Central Committee. Pay attention to this tip. It is not the lead agency for strategic planning. The unified command center became the main one. It is there that all operations are planned. Xi Jinping also received as assistants - the Chiefs of Staff Committee and the Political Operations Department.
Information Warfare Department
And one more governing body that should be paid attention to. It is subordinate to both the military council and the joint center - this is a strategic support group. In fact, this is the information warfare department. Consists of aerospace control, electronic and electromagnetic systems control and military intelligence.
The army districts were also reformed. Now the PLA has only five (instead of seven) military districts. They are named uncomplicatedly, like the Russian ones. East, South, West, North and Central. Each district has its own operational command, subordinate to the single operational headquarters of the PLA.
Military Mobilization Act
But it was not the reforms of army management (no matter how good they were and no matter how they ensured control over the troops even in a nuclear war) that frightened Japan. They were frightened by the law on military mobilization, passed in 2010. By the way, Japan has already experienced the effect of this law during the first wave of coronavirus in the spring of 2020.
So, a little excursion on this law. First, in the event of an emergency, all power passes into the hands of the government. All private companies and all citizens of the PRC, regardless of their location, are obliged to follow the instructions of the government. When a general mobilization is announced, all citizens of the PRC are obliged to support the operations of the Chinese army, take part in maintaining public order, and the like.
It seems to be nothing dangerous. This is how it looks in practice. When China needed masks and other protective equipment to fight the coronavirus this spring, all firms in the PRC and Chinese companies abroad began to manufacture masks for China. And only then (after saturation of the Chinese market) they switched to production for other countries. Now think about what Chinese students, engineers, workers, businessmen (of which there are quite a few in Japan) will do in the event of a war?
Confiscation of property and know-how of companies in case of emergency
As for the property of foreign and Chinese companies, in the event of an emergency, the state has the right to simply confiscate or use them at its own discretion, and then return them to the owners.
There is another doctrine that frightens the Japanese in China. But the same has existed for a long time, for example, in the USA. This is a civil-military synthesis. In other words, according to the law, the PLA has the right to use the advanced technologies and know-how of private firms to modernize its army. Without any claims from private traders.
By the way, in my opinion, it is according to this law (adopted in 2017) that the state in every possible way encourages Chinese companies that somehow get new technologies, production, scientific potential of other countries. Hence, for example, the interest of the Chinese in Ukrainian enterprises.
How China is beating Japan and the United States
If today in Russia or in other European countries you ask the layman about "little green men", then with almost 100 percent certainty we can say that this phrase has become known no worse than some Soviet words before. Did you know that the "green men" have "cousins" in the same Japan and in some part of the USA? These are "blue men" from China.
No, the Chinese special forces did not change into blue uniforms. "Blue Men" do not officially serve in the army or any special services at all. Blue is the color of the worker's robe in most countries. Remember blue collars, white collars. The blue robe is the traditional clothing of Chinese fishermen.
The counteraction of the blue men
So how did ordinary fishermen become “brothers” of the Russian MTR? Understandably, as a navy, fishing schooners are of little use. Although during the Second World War it was commonplace. But the conduct of reconnaissance, surveillance of the coast and the military fleet Japan, countering warships and coast guard boats, creating obstacles to their functioning - fishermen can do it.
Moreover, China also reformed its naval forces. Now there are three groups of ships at sea that can confront the Japanese. The first are the "blue people". They begin to fish in areas that China unilaterally declares to be its economic interests. They land on the "New China" islands and set up their bases there.
In case of opposition to the "blue men" by the Japanese coast guard forces, the Chinese coast guard comes to the rescue, which is always located near the fishermen. The Chinese boats are equipped and armed much better than the Japanese, and there is no confrontation there. The Japanese simply run away. If the Japanese navy comes to the aid of the coast guard, Chinese warships appear.
According to the usual scenarios until recently, the Americans should come to the aid of the Japanese and drive the Chinese to their coast. Alas, the level of armament of the Chinese side on the coast allows today to destroy any enemy ship. And the Americans will not enter the war for Japan in a region that is far from their main bases.
Why are the Americans quiet?
Why did the Chinese become insolent and the Americans quieted down there? After all, nobody disputes the superiority of the Americans at sea? Now I will say something seditious for some. For many years we talked about the fact that the treaty on the abandonment of short- and medium-range missiles was directed only against Russia. And they completely forgot that it directly affects other countries as well. In particular, Japan.
Earlier, before the appearance of the treaty, the Americans had these missiles on the territory of Japan, including those with nuclear warheads, and the Chinese did not have such missiles, but today the situation has changed radically. The Chinese have such missiles, but the Americans do not. This means that the American fleet will be destroyed by these missiles. Here's an anchor for the US Navy in the region.
The loser of the information war will lose all the rest
Honestly, I didn't want to write platitudes about the importance of information in the war. But after a little thought, I came to the conclusion that it was necessary to mention this. Moreover, talking about the PRC. In 2016, in the policy document "Strategy for China's Information Development", the Chinese openly declared that without success in the information sphere, success in all other industries is impossible.
Simply put, the Chinese said something that is only now beginning to reach many leaders of states. Recently I almost watched one of the Georgian films about the 08.08.08 war. Such nonsense, I have not seen for a long time. But this nonsense is spreading on social networks. And given the level of education of our youth, who receive most of their "knowledge" from the Internet, after some time this nonsense will become "true". Here is your answer about performances in Belarus and other European countries. But the Chinese have been talking about this for a long time.
Three zones of information war
But the Chinese have gone further today. They expanded the very concept of information warfare to three zones:
1. Cyberzones, which allows you to disrupt the enemy's communications.
2. Zones of electromagnetic waves, which impedes the control of enemy troops by disabling radars and other means.
3. As well as a space zone, which allows you to limit the use of outer space by the enemy.
I will not write about my own Internet. Although this fact significantly affects the preservation of the stability of the PRC. But why the Chinese pay so much attention to the cyber zone I will mention. The war in Karabakh has shown the effectiveness of modern weapons, which are largely automated and controlled from outside. All these UAVs, loitering ammunition and suppression systems have shown sufficient effectiveness.
The Chinese military are well aware that it is in this component that the PRC is inferior to the United States. And if today it is impossible to create something superior to the samples already available to the enemy, it is necessary to create a high-quality system of counteraction. It's easier and cheaper. That is why (even on the basis of the information that sometimes seeps through the curtain of secrecy) today China is able to completely protect its territory from the effects of automated weapons.
Small summary
One can write for a long time about what is happening today in the PRC and in the PLA. Here I have touched on only a small part of what has already been done. But back to the main topic. To how the PRC influences Japan's position on the Kuril Islands issue.
The emergence of a powerful rival, which is quite capable of solving the most difficult issues on its own (in military, economic and diplomatic terms) has completely changed the situation in the region.
Today Japan is no longer a predator. Today Japan is more of a potential victim. She can bite the enemy. But at the same time, there is a very high chance that in response she will receive a deafening blow.
Information