Is a coup d'etat possible in Ukraine?
With the aggravation of the situation in Ukraine and with the weakening of the positions of their president, information is regularly thrown in about a possible coup in Ukraine in order to overthrow Zelensky. How likely is such a coup? And what driving forces are ready to implement it? What goals can they pursue? And is there a social base for supporting the coup in Ukraine? To assess this possibility, it is necessary to present the alignment of the oligarchic and the political forces accountable to them in Ukraine. It will also require the consent of an external "overseer" to such actions of local aborigines.
Only two forces can prepare and carry out a coup in Ukraine: the Ukrainian oligarchy and the United States, holding Ukraine under tight control. Today there are no other internal and external structures capable and ready to make a revolution. And their appearance is not expected in the near future.
Goals and objectives of the United States and the oligarchy
The defining force in Ukraine is the United States. In principle, no serious action in this direction can take place without their signal. One can ask questions: “Does the USA need to overthrow Zelensky? And what can this lead to? "
The main goals of the Americans are to siphon resources from Ukraine, destroy its technical potential, form a bridgehead against Russia and create a zone of instability on the Russian borders.
All these years, the puppet authorities of Ukraine have successfully coped with the solution of these tasks. And Zelensky's team, completely controlled by the Americans, fulfills all the "wishes" of the overseas owner with the same zeal. In many issues, Zelensky (already surpassed Poroshenko) never dared to disobey. With the filing of the oligarchy, there were only not entirely successful attempts to weaken the noose previously thrown by the Americans in the form of anti-corruption bodies. Zelensky is still completely satisfied with the "beholder" and (unlike Poroshenko, who had previously discredited himself in the eyes of the people) still enjoys significant support from the population. Therefore, on the part of the Americans, there is now no point in staging a coup and changing the obedient Zelensky.
If you look at the Ukrainian oligarchy, now there is no consensus within it, and interests diverge. Kolomoisky, Akhmetov, Pinchuk and Poroshenko remained influential from the first echelon of the oligarchy. Firtash has long been in circulation and is awaiting extradition to the United States in Austria on corruption charges. Pinchuk works closely with Soros and the Democrats and realizes their interests in Ukraine. Akhmetov, as always, has joined the government and is happy with everything. Only Kolomoisky and Poroshenko are unhappy with Zelensky and are ready to take revenge on him for the wrongs he had inflicted on him earlier, and would not mind removing him from power.
Kolomoisky actually made Zelenskiy president. But he quickly came under the control of the Americans, did not allow the oligarch to return Privatbank and eventually removed all of his people from his circle. The oligarch does not have direct influence on Zelensky now, he can only (through his deputy group of influence in parliament and bribing officials) intrigue the president and block the adoption of the decisions he needs. In addition, this most odious oligarch has long been on a big hook with the Americans and at any time for corruption may be required to extradite to the United States.
Poroshenko, despite the inglorious loss to Zelensky (thanks to his fighting qualities), remained afloat and, having regrouped his forces, seeks to return to big politics. For all his activity, he does not have serious support and resources. For Americans, he is a played card, in his place is a clown accountable to them. Poroshenko's attempts to increase his importance to the Americans in the event of Biden's victory are also futile. Because he (during his time as president) allowed himself to keep secret records of negotiations with him, which were later made public and damaged Biden during the election campaign. In big politics, such actions are not forgiven. Poroshenko's party "European Solidarity" is popular only in Galicia, where the former president is still a stranger. For the population of the Center and the South-East, it remains a symbol of the unleashed war in the Donbass, pathological greed, boundless corruption and the Bandera gangs of militants with their cave manners that have multiplied at his behest.
Avakov's tasks
In addition to the oligarchy, there is also the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Avakov, whose strength and capabilities are clearly exaggerated by many. This, according to Saakashvili, "mestizo" in the Ukrainian arena (an ideological Russophobe and an active organizer of the suppression of the resistance of the South-East in 2014) has been successfully playing along with the Americans all these years. For his faithful "service", in 2019 he was appointed the overseas hegemon "overseer" for Zelensky. With the help of gangs of militants under his wing, Avakov, at the command of the United States, kept the president in check with the threat of a radical revolt, preventing him from abandoning his policy of confrontation with Russia.
Avakov's task was to "keep both Zelensky and the radicals in a stable," and he successfully coped with it. For tactical reasons and personal gain, he periodically entered into temporary agreements with Kolomoisky, but he was never his ally. Avakov is well aware of his role as a scarecrow for Zelensky. He will never allow himself to go against the Americans and will not try to overthrow the president without a command from there. Also, many exaggerate the role and significance of radicals. They do not represent a single cohesive force, are easily controlled and are under the control of the security forces. They successfully cope with the task of suppressing resistance to the regime and practically do not go beyond what is permitted.
The hopelessness of organizing a coup
Of the domestic Ukrainian crowd, only Kolomoisky and Poroshenko are interested and would be ready to prepare a coup. However, their desire to forcefully remove Zelensky will not be supported by either the United States or Akhmetov and Pinchuk (and even more so Avakov), since none of them is interested in instability and the fall of the Russophobic regime in Ukraine.
Kolomoisky and Poroshenko are seasoned fighters ready to fight Zelensky. But they are also calculating players who are well aware of the risk of confronting the Americans. Kolomoisky is a good chess player and an avid lover of complex combinations. He can take a risk, since if the situation develops unfavorably, he faces extradition to the United States and a long prison term. But he is unlikely to dare to go alone, without allies against such a powerful enemy and will look for other ways to solve the Zelensky problem.
There is no real opposition to the regime in Ukraine. In a neo-Nazi state, it cannot exist. All forces potentially capable of resisting the regime have long been purged. In Ukraine, there is no national elite, politicians and businessmen who defend state interests. The ruling class and the so-called opposition are entirely made up of compradors who are ready to sell this state with giblets for personal gain. They can only work for an external customer and receive their share.
For a long time they no longer have the ability to independently make decisions about the procedure and forms of robbery of the state. It remains for them to play the game imposed by the Americans, which they all successfully do.
There is no one to prepare and carry out a coup in Ukraine against Zelensky today. There are no driving forces in society for its implementation and support. Kolomoisky and Poroshenko, realizing the inevitable risks, are only taking steps to sway power with the possibility of holding early parliamentary and presidential elections. They are successfully engaged in provocations against Zelensky and accusations of treason to the interests of Ukraine (by which they understand the complete subordination of the United States and the Russophobic policy of the state). Zelenskiy's two notorious opponents are setting the stage for the legal removal of the president, hoping to get the American go-ahead to replace one puppet with another.
At the same time, they do not disdain the most dirty methods, bribing judges of the constitutional court and deputies to make populist decisions, as well as provoking Zelensky to inappropriate actions and deterioration of the political and economic situation in the country.
They have achieved some success. The popularity of the president and his team is falling. And in society, in addition to Zelensky's obvious blunders, belief in his inability to govern the state is kindled. It is not profitable for the Americans yet. But if they deem it necessary, they will calmly surrender Zelensky (as they did with Poroshenko) and select a figure that suits them from a long line of Ukrainian compradors ready to serve them.
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