Baku and Yerevan are not ripe for negotiations yet
The situation in Karabakh is developing in accordance with the long-discovered laws of military science. A few days ago, I predicted the course of events and the chances of the parties to win this war. This is a routine analysis of the situation that any officer at his level will automatically do. Without beautiful words about heroism and dedication, without political slogans and "almost vests" on their own chest.
Yes, analysis without emotion is often creepy. Life is generally a serious thing. No giveaway. And even more so. Today I will try to continue analyzing the situation in the NKR. What and why will the parties be doing in the near future? What can adequate leaders do in the near future? However, judging by what we saw recently, it is difficult to talk about adequacy today. The Prime Minister of Armenia violated the unwritten laws of the Caucasus - he insulted the President of Azerbaijan. Hence the conclusion: further actions are unpredictable.
Turkey became a participant in the war?
The Kommersant newspaper published a report that 600 Turkish troops have already been deployed in Azerbaijan. These are BTG - 200 people, judging by the number of SOF of Turkey, 50 instructors in Nakhichevan, 90 advisers for communication at the brigade-general staff level, 120 flight crew specialists (Gabala airbase), 20 operators drones at the Dallyar airfield, 50 instructors at the Yevlakh airfield, 50 instructors in the 4th Army Corps and 20 people in the VMVU. Aliyev in Baku.
I will not dispute these data or confirm them. Simply because the excitement over Turkish troops in Azerbaijan has nothing to do with the military component of the war. Make big eyes about Turkey's MTR scouts? Ah, and what are they doing there? Yes, they work there. They work in their specialty. And it's legal! Other?
All the rest are also legal in Azerbaijan. Legally, Azerbaijan liberates its own territory recognized by all UN states. That is, the war is going on in the territory of Azerbaijan. And in this case, Baku has the right to invite any country for assistance in the liberation of its territories. Just like Russian troops appeared in Syria.
It is another matter whether the assistance of the Turks carries the same burden as the assistance of the Russians to the Assad regime. Is Turkey's aid really the decisive factor in the victories won by the Azerbaijani army? Agree, the emergence of the Russian Aerospace Forces greatly increased the chances of government forces in Syria to win. And the appearance of Turkish troops, according to Kommersant, has little to do with victories at the front.
In the analysis of the situation that I did at the very beginning of hostilities, I spoke about the advantages and disadvantages of each of the armies and the potential for a prolonged war. Today we can already say that the script is being worked out exactly according to plan. Moreover, it is practiced methodically and without haste. The Azerbaijani army is slowly but steadily advancing. Occupying destroyed villages, or rather, the ruins of villages, and cleaning up the territory.
The cleanup of the area around Fizuli ends today. Simultaneously, Baku is probing the defense of Yerevan in the mountainous regions north and northwest of Hadrut. But the success of the Azerbaijani army in the south, near the border with Iran, is of particular concern. In theory, there is still defense there, but practically most of the border is already controlled by Baku. And this threatens a complete blockade of the NKR.
The defense of Armenia on the central and northern fronts is more or less stable. Azerbaijani troops stumbled upon a well-organized defense, the situation stabilized. In theory, despite limited resources, the Armenians could hold their positions for quite a long time. It seems to me that they are planning to do this. But if not for the "hole" in the south. It is not for nothing that in narrow circles there is talk about the time to start an offensive on Shusha.
Back to Turkey. It is clear that the limited contingent of the military in Baku and the surrounding areas will not make the difference. It is rather a factor of moral pressure. As well as the fact that Erdogan, according to information from our open sources, continues to recruit militants in Syria and send them to Azerbaijan. Much more interesting is the fact that the operation in NKR copies the Turkish operation in Afrin.
Remember the beginning of 2018 and the official announcement of Operation Olive Branch, the entry of Turkish troops into northern Syria? The actions of Turkey then and of Azerbaijan today coincide in basic parameters. By the way, from the Olive Branch we can roughly calculate the possible losses that Baku planned. In Syria, the Turks lost 78 (according to Ankara, 48) soldiers. 225 were injured.
Alas, the losses of the sides today in this war have already passed into the field of statistics. You will have to count in thousands of people. For Baku and Yerevan, a thousand dead is a lot. What is for 2 million Armenia, that for 10 million Azerbaijan.
In words, everyone wants peace. But in reality?
Declarations on the need for peace negotiations and an end to the war are made in Yerevan and Baku every day. Officials of different levels repeat this with the tenacity of parrots. But all these statements look pathetic. After typed in large "We are ready to negotiate ..." is a smaller text, analyzing which you understand that the conversation will not work. Conditions for negotiations are unacceptable for the opposing side.
Here are the statements by the leaders of both countries on October 19. Pashinyan:
“The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be resolved exclusively by peaceful means, this is our position. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan does not agree with this point of view. And I am ready to make all the necessary efforts to achieve such a result, including going, meeting, talking. "
Aliev:
"We are always ready to meet in Moscow and anywhere else in order to end the confrontation and find ways of settlement."
And right there, in the same statements, I read that Yerevan will stop only when Baku recognizes the independence of the NKR, and Baku will stop if the NPO returns to Azerbaijan.
It is clear that neither Yerevan nor Baku will agree to even part of the enemy's demands.
Is there a way out of the impasse? There is always a way out. Only now it will open only when the war has drunk its fill of blood. When the people demand to end the war, tired of the coffins. In the meantime, an atmosphere of patriotic enthusiasm reigns in both countries, a thirst for victory at any cost. Therefore, there will be no full-fledged negotiations. There will be negotiations on the transfer of prisoners and bodies of the dead, there will be negotiations on international observers. It is too early to talk about peace.
Brief conclusions
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is in limbo. Despite all the talk and calls for a ceasefire, the situation is not changing. Yerevan and Baku are not ready for compromises. Russia? The only option for a military ceasefire is to abandon the main principle of the Kremlin, from the implementation of international laws and agreements. It is clear that the Russian president will not risk the country's authority. And neither side is eager to become "close friends" of Russia again.
Turkey's intervention in the war will be in the nature of assistance in military matters and the supply of weapons and ammunition. Military advisers, instructors, engineering staff. Special Operations Forces? Naturally, they will be on the territory of the NKR. As well as the same forces of other states. Intelligence works always and in any conditions. Baku needs fresh information about the opposing side.
Can we slow down the Turkish president? Quite. Erdogan is bogged down in too many places. And we may well organize small complications of the Turkish army in any of these places. The tactics of the crows mocking the cat in the tree. One jumps in front of the nose, and the second pulls the tail. Ultimately, the cat flies down.
Today there is only one fact that is difficult to dispute. The war is still necessary for both sides and both leaders. Everyone needs victory at any cost. And the people? .. The people will tolerate.
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