Military Review

Baku and Yerevan are not ripe for negotiations yet

80
Baku and Yerevan are not ripe for negotiations yet

The situation in Karabakh is developing in accordance with the long-discovered laws of military science. A few days ago, I predicted the course of events and the chances of the parties to win this war. This is a routine analysis of the situation that any officer at his level will automatically do. Without beautiful words about heroism and dedication, without political slogans and "almost vests" on their own chest.


Yes, analysis without emotion is often creepy. Life is generally a serious thing. No giveaway. And even more so. Today I will try to continue analyzing the situation in the NKR. What and why will the parties be doing in the near future? What can adequate leaders do in the near future? However, judging by what we saw recently, it is difficult to talk about adequacy today. The Prime Minister of Armenia violated the unwritten laws of the Caucasus - he insulted the President of Azerbaijan. Hence the conclusion: further actions are unpredictable.

Turkey became a participant in the war?


The Kommersant newspaper published a report that 600 Turkish military personnel have already been deployed in Azerbaijan. This is a BTG - 200 people, judging by the number of Turkish Special Operations Forces, 50 instructors in Nakhchivan, 90 advisers for communications at the brigade-general staff level, 120 flight and technical personnel (Gabala airbase), 20 drone operators at the Dallar airfield, 50 instructors at the Yevlakh airfield , 50 instructors in the 4th army corps and 20 people in the VMVU them. Aliyev in Baku.

I will not dispute these data or confirm them. Simply because the excitement over Turkish troops in Azerbaijan has nothing to do with the military component of the war. Make big eyes about Turkey's MTR scouts? Ah, and what are they doing there? Yes, they work there. They work in their specialty. And it's legal! Other?

All the rest are also legal in Azerbaijan. Legally, Azerbaijan liberates its own territory recognized by all UN states. That is, the war is going on in the territory of Azerbaijan. And in this case, Baku has the right to invite any country for assistance in the liberation of its territories. Just like Russian troops appeared in Syria.

It is another matter whether the assistance of the Turks carries the same burden as the assistance of the Russians to the Assad regime. Is Turkey's aid really the decisive factor in the victories won by the Azerbaijani army? Agree, the emergence of the Russian Aerospace Forces greatly increased the chances of government forces in Syria to win. And the appearance of Turkish troops, according to Kommersant, has little to do with victories at the front.

In the analysis of the situation that I did at the very beginning of hostilities, I spoke about the advantages and disadvantages of each of the armies and the potential for a prolonged war. Today we can already say that the script is being worked out exactly according to plan. Moreover, it is practiced methodically and without haste. The Azerbaijani army is slowly but steadily advancing. Occupying destroyed villages, or rather, the ruins of villages, and cleaning up the territory.

The cleanup of the area around Fizuli ends today. Simultaneously, Baku is probing the defense of Yerevan in the mountainous regions north and northwest of Hadrut. But the success of the Azerbaijani army in the south, near the border with Iran, is of particular concern. In theory, there is still defense there, but practically most of the border is already controlled by Baku. And this threatens a complete blockade of the NKR.

The defense of Armenia on the central and northern fronts is more or less stable. Azerbaijani troops stumbled upon a well-organized defense, the situation stabilized. In theory, despite limited resources, the Armenians could hold their positions for quite a long time. It seems to me that they are planning to do this. But if not for the "hole" in the south. It is not for nothing that in narrow circles there is talk about the time to start an offensive on Shusha.

Back to Turkey. It is clear that the limited contingent of the military in Baku and the surrounding areas will not make the difference. It is rather a factor of moral pressure. As well as the fact that Erdogan, according to information from our open sources, continues to recruit militants in Syria and send them to Azerbaijan. Much more interesting is the fact that the operation in NKR copies the Turkish operation in Afrin.

Remember the beginning of 2018 and the official announcement of Operation Olive Branch, the entry of Turkish troops into northern Syria? The actions of Turkey then and of Azerbaijan today coincide in basic parameters. By the way, from the Olive Branch we can roughly calculate the possible losses that Baku planned. In Syria, the Turks lost 78 (according to Ankara, 48) soldiers. 225 were injured.

Alas, the losses of the sides today in this war have already passed into the field of statistics. You will have to count in thousands of people. For Baku and Yerevan, a thousand dead is a lot. What is for 2 million Armenia, that for 10 million Azerbaijan.

In words, everyone wants peace. But in reality?


Declarations on the need for peace negotiations and an end to the war are made in Yerevan and Baku every day. Officials of different levels repeat this with the tenacity of parrots. But all these statements look pathetic. After typed in large "We are ready to negotiate ..." is a smaller text, analyzing which you understand that the conversation will not work. Conditions for negotiations are unacceptable for the opposing side.

Here are the statements by the leaders of both countries on October 19. Pashinyan:

“The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be resolved exclusively by peaceful means, this is our position. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan does not agree with this point of view. And I am ready to make all the necessary efforts to achieve such a result, including going, meeting, talking. "

Aliev:

"We are always ready to meet in Moscow and anywhere else in order to end the confrontation and find ways of settlement."

And right there, in the same statements, I read that Yerevan will stop only when Baku recognizes the independence of the NKR, and Baku will stop if the NPO returns to Azerbaijan.

It is clear that neither Yerevan nor Baku will agree to even part of the enemy's demands.

Is there a way out of the impasse? There is always a way out. Only now it will open only when the war has drunk its fill of blood. When the people demand to end the war, tired of the coffins. In the meantime, an atmosphere of patriotic enthusiasm reigns in both countries, a thirst for victory at any cost. Therefore, there will be no full-fledged negotiations. There will be negotiations on the transfer of prisoners and bodies of the dead, there will be negotiations on international observers. It is too early to talk about peace.

Brief conclusions


The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is in limbo. Despite all the talk and calls for a ceasefire, the situation is not changing. Yerevan and Baku are not ready for compromises. Russia? The only option for a military ceasefire is to abandon the main principle of the Kremlin, from the implementation of international laws and agreements. It is clear that the Russian president will not risk the country's authority. And neither side is eager to become "close friends" of Russia again.

Turkey's intervention in the war will be in the nature of assistance in military matters and the supply of weapons and ammunition. Military advisers, instructors, engineering staff. Special Operations Forces? Naturally, they will be on the territory of the NKR. As well as the same forces of other states. Intelligence works always and in any conditions. Baku needs fresh information about the opposing side.

Can we slow down the Turkish president? Quite. Erdogan is bogged down in too many places. And we may well organize small complications of the Turkish army in any of these places. The tactics of the crows mocking the cat in the tree. One jumps in front of the nose, and the second pulls the tail. Ultimately, the cat flies down.

Today there is only one fact that is difficult to dispute. The war is still necessary for both sides and both leaders. Everyone needs victory at any cost. And the people? .. The people will tolerate.
Author:
Photos used:
bbc.com (video frame)
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  1. Livonetc
    Livonetc 20 October 2020 10: 06
    0
    "Baku and Yerevan are not ripe for negotiations yet"
    Not certainly in that way.
    "Aliyev and Pashinyan have already confirmed that they are ready for such talks in Moscow, which were previously held at the level of the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan."
    Rather not ripe for reaching a real compromise.
    1. Evil543
      Evil543 20 October 2020 10: 17
      +3
      Saying one thing and doing it another.
      1. Livonetc
        Livonetc 20 October 2020 10: 27
        +5
        It is so.
        But in summer, in this conflict, nothing will grow together.
        And there will be enough of such negotiations and aggravations.
        Until the Armenians are ripe to give up part of the territories, and the Azerbaijanis leave part of the territories for the Armenians.
        At the moment, Azerbaijan is ready only for broad autonomy for Karabakh.
        And Armenia in general, no matter what, except for screams - Save, hooligans are depriving the latter!
        1. Evil543
          Evil543 20 October 2020 10: 41
          +2
          Turks help Azerbaijan, then let them move in Syria to their borders
    2. Civil
      Civil 20 October 2020 10: 27
      +6
      The frenzy of Nazism in Armenian and Azerbaijani Russian-language forums is straightforward. Instead of the problems of war, they find out who the real Armenian / Azerbaijani is, they count the percentages in the blood ... well, of course, all Russians are of an inferior race ... life does not teach anything. Russia's correct approach for these rogue Nazis is not to let anyone win.
      1. Egoza
        Egoza 20 October 2020 10: 43
        -5
        Quote: Civil
        Russia's correct approach for these rogue Nazis is not to let anyone win.

        Take Karabakh for yourself and let them try to steal! At least people will stay alive.
        1. Oleg123219307
          Oleg123219307 20 October 2020 10: 59
          +5
          Quote: Egoza
          Take Karabakh for yourself and let them try to steal! At least people will stay alive.

          What for? It is necessary to take away either everything that was wasted in the 90s, and it is very tough to put things in order there, or nothing.
        2. border
          border 20 October 2020 16: 45
          +3
          Quote: Egoza

          Take Karabakh for yourself and let them try to steal! At least people will stay alive.


          Go and get it! A nurse, a signalman, a cook. No airfield, no roads, mountains. On all sides, a dissatisfied hostile environment. New Bayazet haunted ??
    3. Basil50
      Basil50 20 October 2020 10: 30
      10
      You're right. There are many of those for whom * war is a dear mother *. It is worth remembering the beginning of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflicts and what atrocities it all started with. These * animals * were not brought from abroad, they were our own * personnel * who, for the sake of * the national idea *, did not just kill, torture their neighbors, with whom they lived nearby. And all this began with the followers of the * Dashnaks *. They also broke through to power in Armenia, killing everyone who did not agree with them.
      Pashinyan came to power, you can say * peace *, Even the previous rulers were not shot, only imprisoned. Pashinyan decided that the Americans would pay the Wishlist * of the Dashnaks *, this is the only discrepancy between the current government of Armenia from the past
      After the reconciliation of Armenia-Azerbaijan, the RUSSIAN military base should be withdrawn from there. The Armenians will definitely arrange a military provocation against our troops. If earlier provocations were petty, now they will arrange something more terrible.
    4. Vladimir61
      Vladimir61 20 October 2020 12: 07
      -1
      Quote: Livonetc
      Not certainly in that way.
      "Aliyev and Pashinyan have already confirmed that they are ready for such talks in Moscow, which were previously held at the level of the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan."
      This is not political maturation! Despite the successes of Azerbaijan as a whole, the blitzkrieg did not pass. Both sides suffer large, one might say "not expected" losses before. The international community did not take the position of one of the parties, including those on whom both parties to the conflict counted. Winter is on the way, and in winter in the mountains, only in the alpine resorts it is comfortable.
  2. Artavazdych
    Artavazdych 20 October 2020 10: 21
    -5
    There will be no compromise. If it can be imagined (with difficulty) that Pashinyan agrees to the return of the buffer zone from 7 regions, then Aliyev unconditionally needs all of Karabakh.
    Legally, Azerbaijan liberates its own territory recognized by all UN states.

    Azerbaijan has legally violated the 1994 peace terms it itself signed
    1. Gofman
      Gofman 20 October 2020 10: 55
      +2
      But the course of history has not stopped since 1994. The situation and the balance of forces have long changed. Now you need to be treated differently.
      1. Artavazdych
        Artavazdych 20 October 2020 11: 00
        -3
        The conversation about the legal side was mentioned here.
        Now you need to be different.

        Differently (with us) - What is it like?
        1. Gofman
          Gofman 20 October 2020 11: 08
          0
          Quote: Artavazdych
          The conversation about the legal side was mentioned here.
          The legal side - it is so legal ... Everyone takes from it what is beneficial to him. In addition to the 1994 treaty, there are also UN decisions, whose lands are and who should release them. And the coercive apparatus decides everything at the end of the judicial debate. And now Azerbaijan has an advantage.
          Quote: Artavazdych
          In a different way (with us) - how is it?

          Something like this: "New war - new territories", but not for the side that proclaimed it.
          1. Artavazdych
            Artavazdych 20 October 2020 11: 17
            -4
            The 1994 agreement was the last one, and accordingly it must be adhered to. This is according to universal human terms. But more than that - the Azerbaijani forces have already overstepped the UN decisions - the battles are already taking place on the territory of the former NKAO.
    2. icant007
      icant007 20 October 2020 17: 05
      +2
      Quote: Artavazdych
      Azerbaijan has legally violated the 1994 peace terms it itself signed


      And then I answer you. This is not a peace treaty, but a ceasefire agreement.
      And in the document itself, the ministers of defense of Armenia, NKR and Azerbaijan are sealed by the signers.

      And who violated it is generally unprovable thing. Nobody will say who fired first.
  3. Anatole Klim
    Anatole Klim 20 October 2020 10: 23
    +3
    I will allow myself to supplement the article with a map of military operations as of yesterday, where the advance of the Azerbaijani army along the Iranian border is clearly visible, the situation here is threatening for the Armenians. I don’t know about Shushi, but they will soon take Zangelan and Martuni.
    1. Artavazdych
      Artavazdych 20 October 2020 10: 36
      -10 qualifying.
      They are unlikely to go to Shusha. And this is clearly visible - they cut through a corridor to Nakhichevan and, accordingly, to Turkey. They will enter the territory of Armenia without much hesitation - Moscow will donate to the CSTO for the passage to the Bosphorus. Otherwise, you will have to leave Syria.
      1. Livonetc
        Livonetc 20 October 2020 10: 45
        +1
        Victor,
        I can not agree with you.
        The passage to the Bosphorus was, is and will be.
        This is not a bargaining chip in any way.
        1. Artavazdych
          Artavazdych 20 October 2020 10: 48
          -4
          I would really like it to be so.
          But the Bosphorus is supported by one well-known phrase of Gromyko. Is the current leadership of the Russian Federation able to pronounce it again?
          1. Oleg123219307
            Oleg123219307 20 October 2020 11: 01
            0
            Quote: Artavazdych
            I would really like it to be so.
            But the Bosphorus is supported by one well-known phrase of Gromyko. Is the current leadership of the Russian Federation able to pronounce it again?

            Quite. Especially considering the current relations between Turkey and NATO.
            1. Artavazdych
              Artavazdych 20 October 2020 11: 04
              -3
              But I am sure - "relations" with NATO are deliberately spoiled for this very reason!
              A trap to get involved in the world apocalypse.
              1. Oleg123219307
                Oleg123219307 20 October 2020 11: 16
                +1
                Quote: Artavazdych
                But I am sure - "relations" with NATO are deliberately spoiled for this very reason!
                A trap to get involved in the world apocalypse.

                I will answer with the words of the Strugatskys. It is not necessary to sneak up to Mimikrodon, and it is from the right. You can just walk up and eat, from the head or tail, whatever you like ... If they wanted World War III right tomorrow, the best option is a sudden global strike. No warnings or crises. Then, perhaps, we will not have time to deploy all the available forces. And the gradual escalation will not give anything strategically, because during and after World War III no one will condemn the "aggressors" and look for the guilty. There will be no one.
                1. Artavazdych
                  Artavazdych 20 October 2020 11: 37
                  -4
                  You are rational. However, "there" people sit (let's call them that), who are guided by the irrational, going beyond the boundaries of logic. But this already lies in the spiritual realm.
                  I'm not talking about the military, but about several dozen families.
                  And then - the exchange of strikes will not necessarily be with NATO - Pakistan has long been trying to render a service to the Turks.
                  Today, a world war with nuclear strikes is possible without the destruction of the world, this is a fact, and they clearly want to take advantage of this.
                  But I very much doubt that our side is generally capable of taking decisive steps, looking at today's timid steps.
                  1. Oleg123219307
                    Oleg123219307 20 October 2020 12: 05
                    +3
                    Quote: Artavazdych
                    You are rational. However, "there" people sit (let's call them that), who are guided by the irrational, going beyond the boundaries of logic. But this already lies in the spiritual realm.
                    I'm not talking about the military, but about several dozen families.

                    Good luck. Any scenario other than an instant global strike plays against them and gives us orders of magnitude more chances of winning if we don't play half measures.
                    Quote: Artavazdych
                    And then - the exchange of strikes will not necessarily be with NATO - Pakistan has long been trying to render a service to the Turks.

                    For any country except the United States, an exchange of blows with us is suicide, and a stupid one. they will not be able to harm us.
                    Quote: Artavazdych
                    Today, a world war with nuclear strikes is possible without the destruction of the world, this is a fact, and they clearly want to take advantage of this.

                    Assuming we play by their rules, yes. Are we going? With 10 times the enemy's superiority in all areas except for air defense / missile defense and strategic nuclear forces?
                    Quote: Artavazdych
                    But I very much doubt that our side is generally capable of taking decisive steps, looking at today's timid steps.

                    I don't think that our people are in such a hurry to the next world. Plus, each won year is another 4-5 air defense / missile defense regiments. As a result, all the same, it will come to war, the crisis phenomena in the Western economy are too deep, and they will not want to live like we in the 90s from hand to mouth, but the later this happens, the better we will be ready, unless of course we do not allow gentlemen like Kudrin to reach the army.
                    1. Artavazdych
                      Artavazdych 20 October 2020 12: 50
                      -3
                      Yes you are right. But perhaps no one is trying to wipe Russia off the face of the Earth. Moreover, they have a new concept "in vogue" - a strong Russia - a world club for establishing a new world order. There are many facts to support this. I recommend listening to Konstantin Sivkov on this topic
                      1. Oleg123219307
                        Oleg123219307 20 October 2020 13: 23
                        0
                        Quote: Artavazdych
                        Yes you are right. But perhaps no one is trying to wipe Russia off the face of the Earth. Moreover, they have a new concept "in vogue" - a strong Russia - a world club for establishing a new world order. There are many facts to support this. I recommend listening to Konstantin Sivkov on this topic

                        Thank you, I'll listen. Although I doubt it.
      2. Anatole Klim
        Anatole Klim 20 October 2020 10: 47
        +8
        Quote: Artavazdych
        they cut a corridor to Nakhichevan and, accordingly, to Turkey. They will enter the territory of Armenia without any particular divisions - Moscow will donate to the CSTO for the sake of passage to the Bosphorus.

        I don't think so, Azerbaijan is now returning its territories recognized by international law, but if it starts to cut through a corridor through Armenia to Nakhichevan, then Azerbaijan will automatically become an aggressor, hysteria about bad Azerbaijan and unfortunate Armenia will begin, which must be helped, remember the Armenian genocide, Aliyev is smart, and no matter how Erdogan pushes him, he will not do it. Aliyev's main task is to liberate Nagorno-Karabakh, after which he will become a national hero and no cataclysms will shake his power.
        1. Artavazdych
          Artavazdych 20 October 2020 11: 07
          -4
          He will not be able to liberate all of Karabakh. How do you imagine success in the mountains? Cleaning up Stepanakert and Shushi?
          1. Anatole Klim
            Anatole Klim 20 October 2020 11: 22
            +5
            Quote: Artavazdych
            Cleaning up Stepanakert and Shushi?

            Why clean them up? They will surround them, leave a corridor for the exit, start heavy shelling, the Armenians will leave on their own.
            How do you imagine success in the mountains?

            They will conduct reconnaissance, if found - aviation, drones, artillery strikes, while cutting off the routes for the supply of ammunition, weapons, you will not sit for a long time in the mountains without external recharge, moreover, the peaceful Armenian population will flee to Armenia, although let's not guess, but it is hard for the Armenians now more than ever, it was necessary to prepare for war, and not trample Russian flags.
            1. Artavazdych
              Artavazdych 20 October 2020 12: 43
              -3
              Armenians will leave on their own.
              They will never leave; rather, on the contrary, they will arrive. You are not aware of the situation, sorry.
              Yes, reconnaissance, drones, aviation are good. But Afghanistan says something else.
              Armenians are now more difficult than ever
              That is why they will push themselves to death. In this sense, they (we) are closer to the Russians than it seems.
              1. Anatole Klim
                Anatole Klim 20 October 2020 13: 00
                +1
                Quote: Artavazdych
                You are not aware of the situation, sorry.

                There is no need to apologize, I really cannot be aware, because I do not live either in Armenia, or in Nagorno-Karabakh, or even in Georgia. You probably know better from there, more information, you see the situation really, but I read "VO", well, other resources and draw my own conclusions, and time will tell whether they are correct or not, I'll just look. hi
              2. Gofman
                Gofman 20 October 2020 13: 41
                0
                Quote: Artavazdych
                Afghanistan says something else.

                From Afghanistan, sorry, so many people have not scattered in search of a better life in other countries. There really is a different mentality to fight like they do. For the most part, they remained in their country, whatever it was, and fought there. I don't know if there were crowds of Afghans protesting around the embassies with slogans "Peace must ... !!!"
                1. Artavazdych
                  Artavazdych 20 October 2020 14: 09
                  -3
                  I do not comment.
                  Another thing is interesting to me - in the period from September 27 to this moment, "users" with commendable activity and a loud voice, with the correct Russian, but too characteristic accent, appear en masse. Moreover, not only here. That would be so!
                  Question to the moderators.
        2. aslanxnumx
          aslanxnumx 20 October 2020 12: 23
          +5
          Aliyev is not only smart, but also does not allow himself to be drawn into provocations. His restraint in emotions, both in Azerbaijani and in Russian, testifies to a deep thoughtfulness of plans and concentration on the ultimate goals of this war, which is strikingly different against the background of Pashinyan's confusion.
          1. Artavazdych
            Artavazdych 20 October 2020 13: 10
            -1
            Aliev:
            I would like to note that we must not forget about our historical lands. In the future, this should be one of the directions of our activity. Our historical lands are the Iravan Khanate, Zengezur, Goyche (i.e. the entire territory of present-day Armenia - approx.) Our young generation should know about this

            Smart, restrained, thoughtful - neither give nor take.
    2. domokl
      20 October 2020 13: 48
      +3
      Nice card. Then my five cents. It will not work to take Shushi outright. I will say this with 100% certainty. But to try and begin to squeeze out the population to Stepanakert is quite. Both sides understand the importance of Shushi. This means that the Armenians will transfer part of the troops from the north. Then, perhaps, it will be possible to drop their defenses already there ..
  4. Sergey Obraztsov
    Sergey Obraztsov 20 October 2020 10: 30
    +3
    Well, why does Azerbaijan need peace now? They are doing well. And every day, with the current balance of power, will give Aliyev a stronger position. And peace is a compromise of both parties concerned.
    If Pashinyan does not begin shelling troops from the territory of Armenia, which will entail a response, then the chances of Russian interference are zero. I am sure the Armenians will come to these provocations. But this must be bargained for. Now what can Pashinyan offer Russia so valuable? Save us, the Turks are beating us? The RF has no more reasons to interfere.
  5. yehat2
    yehat2 20 October 2020 10: 32
    +1
    There is one thing missing in your analysis - a flotilla of Russian warships has been formed and advanced to the border of Azerbaijan in the Caspian. They not only carry some kind of weapons, but are also capable of completely controlling movements in the air, including UAVs, throughout the theater with their radars.
    This can significantly affect the effectiveness of air attacks, even if they simply stand and do not take active action.
    1. Oleg123219307
      Oleg123219307 20 October 2020 11: 02
      +3
      The air there can be controlled from base 102, if you wish. Taking into account the behavior of the "allies" desire apparently does not appear, which is probably correct.
    2. domokl
      20 October 2020 13: 57
      +3
      Quote: yehat2
      They not only carry some kind of weapons, but are also capable of completely controlling movements in the air, including UAVs, throughout the theater with their radars.

      So what? We can control the sky and conduct reconnaissance without boats. There is a huge amount of intelligence equipment. And a blow to Azerbaijan? On what grounds? So far, Armenia is legally an aggressor. You again write that Russia will want to change its basic principle - compliance with the norms of international law.
      This can happen, according to our military doctrine, only if Russia itself is threatened. And Baku does not lead troops to Moscow ...
      1. Artavazdych
        Artavazdych 20 October 2020 15: 11
        -6
        So far, Armenia is legally an aggressor.

        No. Armenia (Karabakh) complied with the 1994 peace treaty. Azerbaijan has violated.
        1. icant007
          icant007 20 October 2020 16: 00
          +2
          Quote: Artavazdych
          No. Armenia (Karabakh) complied with the 1994 peace treaty. Azerbaijan has violated.

          If you look at the origins of the conflict, then Armenia is an aggressor.
          Azerbaijan observed the ceasefire for 22 years until April 2016. What's the point of this?
          Only freezing the results of the Armenian aggression.


          But if the mountain (Armenia) does not go to Mohammed (Azerbaijan), then what to expect next?
          1. Artavazdych
            Artavazdych 20 October 2020 16: 18
            -6
            Without going into history (this is pointless):
            Azerbaijan observed the ceasefire for 22 years until April 2016. What's the point of this?

            That is, all these years you have been expecting a saucer with a blue border? ))))
            No, dear, the agreements are concluded for that, and are sealed with signatures that this is a de jure status. Well, who violated - a bad person, a radish.
            1. icant007
              icant007 20 October 2020 16: 30
              +3
              I am not Baku, I am Rostov-on-Don. And I didn't expect anything)

              About the history. How not to go into it if Armenia itself is very strong, some three thousand years agoleaps into history.
              It is accepted to lead the beginning of this conflict from 1988. The process of withdrawal of Karabakh from Azerbaijan by Armenia was initiated.

              And about the 1994 truce. It was signed on the basis of the Bishkek Protocol, which provided for the withdrawal of troops from the occupied territories in black and white.
              1. Artavazdych
                Artavazdych 20 October 2020 17: 26
                -3
                I am not Baku, I am Rostov-on-Don. And I didn't expect anything)

                Ah, I got it. Then you can debate.
                There was no reference to Bishkek in the agreement. Moreover, the Azerbaijani troops did not leave their positions either (15% of the territory behind them). The economic blockade is right here.
                And with all this, the peaceful settlement, albeit slowly, went on!
                Very sorry. I know many Azerbaijanis, they are good soulful people. There was culture and science flourished in Soviet times. But 30 years of fascisation (just like in Ukraine, or even worse) are making themselves felt. Dull ignorance ...
                1. icant007
                  icant007 21 October 2020 07: 06
                  +2
                  Quote: Artavazdych
                  But 30 years of fascism (just like in Ukraine, or even worse) are making themselves felt. Dull ignorance ...


                  This is you in vain. In the sight of fascization, Armenia is more likely than Azerbaijan.

                  The Armenian sense of superiority in relation to other peoples is the main cause of the conflict. And this chauvinism is actively fueled by various non-governmental organizations. By the way, in recent years a lot of sects have appeared in Armenia. The authorities of Armenia itself must fight this.
                  Foster internationalism.
                  When Karabakh goes to Azerbaijan, the main task will be to ensure joint peaceful residence of Armenians and Azerbaijanis.

                  And with all this, the peaceful settlement, albeit slowly, went on!


                  It didn't go anywhere. Trampling on the spot. Deliberate delay and torpedoing by the Armenian side of any initiatives, any options other than the recognition of Karabakh as Armenian.

                  There was no reference to Bishkek in the agreement.


                  In the preamble itself:

                  In response to the call for a ceasefire set out in the Bishkek Protocol of May 5, 1994, and relying on the Protocol of February 18, 1994, the warring parties agreed on the following:
                  1. Artavazdych
                    Artavazdych 21 October 2020 09: 09
                    -2
                    Everyone has chauvinism, without exception. Including the Armenians, they made a discovery. The question is quantity.
                    At least in history textbooks, epithets are not applied to neighbors "mean", "insidious", etc.
                    You read Azerbaijani textbooks, I recommend!
                    By the way, when the Jews were drowned in gas stoves, they were also exposed to Jewish chauvinism, and there was nothing to object!
                    Have you forgotten how in the 90s the Russians were blamed for all the troubles on television? I haven't forgotten that, because I also consider myself Russian.
                    I don’t want to answer the rest, I don’t see the point. I only agree that sectarianism is a big problem in Armenia right now. I am not disclosing the reasons here, this is a big topic. For someone, maybe, and another reason for gloating ...
        2. icant007
          icant007 20 October 2020 16: 50
          +3
          Quote: Artavazdych
          Armenia (Karabakh) complied with the 1994 peace treaty.


          And to be exact. This is not a peace treaty.
          A ceasefire agreement. Like the one recently signed in Moscow by the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
  6. KVU-NSVD
    KVU-NSVD 20 October 2020 10: 50
    0
    Is there a way out of the impasse? There is always a way out. Only now it will open only when the war has drunk its fill of blood. When the people demand to end the war, tired of the coffins.
    The most real and at the same time bloody truth in the article.
  7. Selevc
    Selevc 20 October 2020 10: 58
    +2
    Can we slow down the Turkish president? Quite. Erdogan is bogged down in too many places.
    People in VO for the most part seem to have a poor understanding of what Turkey is today and what the Arab world as a whole is today. There are two subtle but very important aspects:
    1) Turkey is a country in which about 60% of the population are men - and most of them are young men !!! Where are they full of adrenaline and religious zeal to do except for the war ???
    2) Turkey is a country created by rich people for the most comfortable life of rich people - and if you are young and poor in Turkey, then you are nobody at all and they call you nothing. Therefore, serving as a mercenary abroad is one of the few chances for young Turks to climb the social ladder.

    Therefore, countries like Turkey and Qatar - it is even beneficial for them to pursue an aggressive foreign policy - by doing this they themselves solve several problems at once. For example, they distract the masses of their citizens from internal problems, spread Turkey's influence around the world and create a whole generation of experienced military men ... Therefore, Erdogan is unlikely to stop - for now he is coming and has not received a decent rebuff from anyone yet .. ...
  8. tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 20 October 2020 11: 19
    +1
    The wine must stand, the document must stand, the people must get tired of the war. Only then do actions begin to be taken. Unlike the last two, wine is satisfying.
  9. Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 20 October 2020 11: 21
    +2
    The war is still necessary for both sides and both leaders.
    ... As it has been written here on the site more than once: the war is a continuation of domestic policy, the war will write off everything.
  10. Alexander Kopychev
    Alexander Kopychev 20 October 2020 11: 54
    +2
    And what kind of negotiations can there be? Aliyev on horseback, Pashinyan on a donkey with long CIA ears. Just take a peek at the festive atmosphere in the second largest embassy in the world. Or is there concern?
  11. Old tanker
    Old tanker 20 October 2020 12: 19
    +3
    Azerbaijan will slowly but surely take over the entire NKAO. He will not go to Armenia. There is no reason for him to become an aggressor.
    After the defeat in Armenia ardent anti-Russian sentiments flared up. Don't go to the fortuneteller. So, the base must be withdrawn from there. Until, as in 1992, the families of officers did not live in an embrace with machine guns.
  12. yehat2
    yehat2 20 October 2020 12: 29
    +3
    Quote: Old Tankman
    Ardent anti-Russian sentiments will flare up in Armenia after defeat

    And why? RF, should it serve the ambitions of the Armenians?
    Azerbaijan really attacked the officially recognized territory of Armenia, but so far only once and with the aim of destroying the launcher that attacked the civilians. All other actions take place outside the framework of the CSTO treaty. The Russian Federation is already doing a lot to support the Armenians.
    Now about the reproaches in the quality of weapons that will follow.
    Who prevented Armenia from preparing adequately? I will just remind you that the Poles during the Second World War also complained about the quality of Soviet weapons - they were not satisfied with the PPSh and SVT, which the Germans were happy to use, did not suit the T34-85, which reached Berlin. The Arabs complained about the T54 and Is-3, receiving grenades through open hatches and stupidly merging these vehicles in the open field with frontal attacks.
    Yes, the authority of the Russian Federation is not enough to stop Azerbaijan with one shout. But blame the Russian Federation for this?
    Anti-Russian hysteria may be, but it has no serious grounds.
    1. Alexander Kopychev
      Alexander Kopychev 20 October 2020 12: 56
      +1
      But we do have a SERIOUS reason !!! 30 years spat upon by the proud cosmopolitan peoples.
    2. ZAV69
      ZAV69 21 October 2020 00: 31
      0
      Quote: yehat2
      And why? RF, should it serve the ambitions of the Armenians?

      And who is easier to make the extreme?
  13. aslanxnumx
    aslanxnumx 20 October 2020 12: 35
    0
    If there are Syrian militants there (who are not there)), then most likely they are not taking part in the hostilities. It is more logical to place them on the border with Iran in order to prevent the latter from interfering on the side of Armenia. Turkish-Iranian confrontation.
    1. yehat2
      yehat2 20 October 2020 13: 34
      0
      there were a few days left before the denouement. If Azerbaijan runs along the entire border of Iran, then Armenia will be completely isolated and doomed. If they can resist there, then the negotiation process will also begin, tk. in other sectors, they have already rested on a normally organized defense, but on different conditions.
    2. domokl
      20 October 2020 14: 09
      +1
      Quote: aslan11
      If there are Syrian fighters there (who are not there))

      Well, if you have more truth than the Russian SVR, then yes. There are no militants there. And about the logic. The article does not mention the "Olive Branch" for nothing. I wrote about the losses of the Turkish Armed Forces, but did not mention the losses of the militants who acted in alliance with the Turks. Do not be lazy, take a look at the numbers. I think this will be enough to understand the logic of Aliyev's Turkish advisers.
      The Persians will sit quietly, drinking coffee and smoking a hookah. The weakening of Azerbaijan is beneficial to them. Moreover, Turkey. How profitable for your country is grating between neighboring countries. They growl at each other, and you, even without doing anything, become stronger, more significant. Quite an adequate and intelligent position.
  14. KKND
    KKND 20 October 2020 12: 55
    +1
    A few days ago, I predicted the course of events and the chances of the parties to win this war. This is a routine analysis of the situation that any officer at his level will automatically do. Without beautiful words about heroism and dedication, without political slogans and "almost vests" on their own chest.

    Compares perfectly with the article by the same author on September 30, 2020 An Unexpected Expected War.
    In this article.
    Today there is only one fact that is difficult to dispute. The war is still necessary for both sides and both leaders. Everyone needs victory at any cost. And the people? .. The people will tolerate.

    In an article from the 30th.
    The war, which today takes the lives of Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers, civilians, children, old people, is not needed by anyone. The Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples do not want war. Many people say that politicians need war. It seems to me that Baku and Yerevan are also against the war. It is the leadership of the countries. At least, the speeches of Aliyev and Pashinyan on Russian television in the 60 Minutes program had just such a subtext.

    In today's article.
    The defense of Armenia on the central and northern fronts is more or less stable. Azerbaijani troops stumbled upon a well-organized defense, the situation stabilized. In theory, despite limited resources, Armenians could hold their positions for quite a long time.

    in the article from the 30th
    Based on the capabilities of the sides, it must be said that the Armenian army will be able to conduct military operations for a maximum of two weeks. At least, judging by the data from open sources.

    How to understand all this. recourse
    1. domokl
      20 October 2020 14: 17
      +3
      Quote: KKND
      How to understand all this.

      So what is the contradiction? Is it that in some area the Armenians were able to organize defense, which the Azerbaijanis do not want to take by storm, because they understand the number of possible losses? Why should they storm. They will block roads, food and ammunition supply routes, drive out the peaceful Armenian population, and after a while the checkpoints will be empty.
      Or are you saying that Baku and Yerevan were against the war? Yes, both sides were hoping for a blitzkrieg. Quickly, in a week, beat the enemy in the face and win. It just didn't work out. And now the situation is even more twisted. Now defeat in the war in the eyes of the people will be equal to the political death of the leader. That's all.
      1. icant007
        icant007 20 October 2020 16: 16
        +2
        Yes, both sides were hoping for a blitzkrieg. Quickly, in a week, beat the enemy in the face and win.


        Where did this ringing about "blitzkrieg" come from?
        Were there any relevant statements by the heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan?

        I'm just wondering who put this term into circulation and why everyone was waiting for it? )
        1. Greenwood
          Greenwood 20 October 2020 17: 11
          +2
          Quote: icant007
          I'm just wondering who put this term into circulation and why everyone was waiting for it? )
          Apparently, for some reason, everyone was waiting for a repetition of the action of the Croatian army against the Serbian land, which lasted only a few days, hence the expectation of a quick outcome of events.
          1. icant007
            icant007 20 October 2020 17: 48
            0
            Apparently, for some reason, everyone was waiting for a repetition of the action of the Croatian army against the Serbian land, which lasted only a few days, hence the expectation of a quick outcome of events.


            Still who would remember about it)
            1. Greenwood
              Greenwood 21 October 2020 07: 30
              +1
              Well, the military and people interested in history and military affairs remember this episode very well. And they draw parallels with it. This was also during the conflict in Donbass in 2014-2015. (then some expected that the Ukrainian army would return the insurgent territories under control with a swift blow), and now.
              1. icant007
                icant007 21 October 2020 10: 58
                0
                May be. But I missed this moment)
  15. yehat2
    yehat2 20 October 2020 13: 41
    0
    Quote: KKND
    How to understand all this.

    hormones)))
    But seriously, the author was confused by the peaceful rhetoric of the leaders.
    in reality, in negotiations they speak only with ultimatums, which excludes peace.
    The Armenians will hold out, but the question is in what boundaries and at what cost.
    It is now evident that their forward forces have failed to cope with the task. If Azerbaijan goes further, both the army and the police will already defend themselves, and only where the relief gives great opportunities and Armenia may well turn from a country into a stub with a knocked out population and infrastructure.
    I also estimated that it would be 2 weeks, but I greatly underestimated the supplies of Turkey, Israel and the United States to Azerbaijan, as well as the active help of the Turks by people.
  16. Ulrih
    Ulrih 20 October 2020 13: 44
    0
    "The only option for a military ceasefire is to abandon the main principle of the Kremlin, from the implementation of international laws and agreements. It is clear that the Russian president will not risk the country's authority." - that is, after the epic with the Crimea, everything is ok with the country's authority? No agreements have been violated?
    "When the people demand to end the war, tired of the coffins. In the meantime, an atmosphere of patriotic enthusiasm reigns in both countries, the thirst for victory at any cost." - Not certainly in that way. The Armenians have a question almost about survival.
    1. Gofman
      Gofman 20 October 2020 13: 58
      -1
      Quote: Ulrih
      The Armenians have a question almost about survival.
      This is "slightly" exaggerated (they and 7 foreign areas are necessary for survival? Not bad). IMHO, the question of "leaving" looks more objective.
    2. Alexander Kopychev
      Alexander Kopychev 20 October 2020 14: 44
      0
      Nobody will take Armenia away from them. And whose Karabakh is he at all? ... so I don’t know, therefore I will not say anything ...
      1. Alexander Kopychev
        Alexander Kopychev 20 October 2020 15: 53
        0
        Today the administrators forbade me to apply the Armenian epithet to the name Karabakh, which means there is no such name in the world community.
      2. Greenwood
        Greenwood 21 October 2020 07: 45
        +1
        Quote: Alexander Kopychev
        And whose is Karabakh in general?
        From the point of view of the UN and the whole world, Azerbaijani.
  17. yehat2
    yehat2 20 October 2020 13: 58
    0
    Quote: domokl
    You are writing again that Russia wants to change

    I don't write anything like that
  18. Old26
    Old26 20 October 2020 16: 56
    0
    Quote: yehat2
    Azerbaijan really attacked the officially recognized territory of Armenia, but so far only once and with the aim of destroying the launcher that attacked the civilians.

    Is it known where the blow was from? The missile systems of Armenia are mobile. And according to open data, the NKR also has "Elbrus", most likely transferred by Armenia
  19. Baian
    Baian 20 October 2020 17: 33
    +1
    Quote: Egoza
    Quote: Civil
    Russia's correct approach for these rogue Nazis is not to let anyone win.

    Take Karabakh for yourself and let them try to steal! At least people will stay alive.

    This is also an option, but it is better to first let them let each other get blood, otherwise they can rush to Russia ..))) This is an age-old enmity and you can't get away from this yet .. The main thing is that without the United States it all goes away .. Let's figure it out ourselves!
  20. Old Bolshevik
    Old Bolshevik 21 October 2020 15: 20
    -1
    Despite the technical superiority, the Azeri-Turkish army will not take Stepanakert and generally the central, mountainous part of Nagorno-Karabakh. Cities are taken by infantry, not UAVs. And the Azeri infantry is cowardly. Armenians in Karabakh are fighting for their native land, not for abstract "territorial integrity". When Azerbaijan's personnel losses exceed tens of thousands, and the drones run out, the sides will return to their 1994 state.
  21. Mmm.
    Mmm. 21 October 2020 20: 40
    0
    It is necessary to help both sides of the conflict, let them fight, whoever is right and wins, they want to fight, even though they pose as victims. We will be exploring new tactics for mountain warfare.
  22. times
    times 22 October 2020 14: 37
    16
    Until at least someone reaches some goal, even an intermediate one, there will be no truce.