Military Review

Libyan conflict frozen in precarious balance: no peace, no war

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While the attention of the world community is drawn to the alarming events around Nagorno-Karabakh, other “hot spots” on the planet, unfortunately, have not disappeared either. One of these places is Libya, today frozen in an alarming pause between war and peace.


As a matter of fact, the calm that has come in a country torn by many years of war is due to several factors. First of all, these are political changes. The firm intention, voiced by the head of the Government of National Accord (PNC) of Libya, Faiza Saraja, to retire by the end of October and officially transfer power to some new "executive body" by some supporters of the Libyan National Army (LNA) is perceived as the first step of the PNC, if not to surrender, then to significant softening their positions. First of all, to abandon a tough confrontation with the LNA and too close cooperation with Turkey.

By the way, Ankara immediately expressed "great regret" about Saraj's plans. Obviously, they understand that the next leader in Tripoli, no matter what he is called, may turn out to be less accommodating. However, it is hardly worth talking about the unilateral surrender of the positions of one of the forces leading the confrontation in the periodically entering a complete military and political deadlock in the Libyan conflict. Almost simultaneously with Saraj, representatives of the interim government, which controls the east of Libya, announced their intention to resign. Obviously, we are talking about some kind of global reformatting in both warring camps. Khalifa Haftar, however, is clearly not going to leave his post as commander-in-chief of the LNA.

The goal of large-scale changes in leadership, most likely, may be to find ways to get out of the protracted crisis, which is gradually driving the once prosperous state almost into the Stone Age. One of the major efforts being made today to advance in this direction is to unblock the production and export of oil from the country - the only resource that can somehow replenish its treasury. The most important thing here is the achievement of a number of agreements between the opposing parties both on the distribution of oil revenues and on the settlement of other controversial issues. According to the most daring forecasts, we can even talk about the unification of the budgets of the eastern and western parts and, if not about their political reconciliation, then at least about economic cooperation.

To a large extent, the cessation of hostilities in Libya is also facilitated by the recently intensified diplomatic contacts on this topic between Ankara and Moscow. The Turkish Foreign Ministry has recently stated that the countries are "close to agreeing on all parameters of a ceasefire" in the Libyan conflict. Obviously, there is still reason for optimism, since the head of the Russian diplomatic department, Sergei Lavrov, not so long ago spoke about the possibility that "soon" the Russian embassy will be reopened in Tripoli.

Both the Turkish and Russian sides should hurry up with the settlement of controversial issues concerning the interests of both countries in Libya, since another force in the person of the European Union is increasingly trying to intervene in the matter. The head of the local diplomacy, Josep Borrell, openly announced Brussels' desire to deploy at least a group of military observers on the territory of Libya. According to Borrell, solely for overseeing the observance of the ceasefire and with the aim of "raising the EU's authority in the international arena."

However, everyone understands perfectly well that what starts with "monitoring" may well eventually result in attempts at massive military intervention. And, by the way, in the same European External Relations Service, which is currently developing such projects, they are talking about the possibility of introducing into Libyan territory an "EU military contingent" numbering 5 or even 10 thousand people. A bit too much to watch, isn't it? However, we are talking about the prospect: to carry out, to the extreme, the intervention resembling the introduction of troops now, while the situation is still explosive, the European military consider it madness and completely unjustified risk.

But everything can change. And the Libyan people, whose country was just destroyed as a result of the NATO intervention in 2011, do not need such prospects at all. The more foreign soldiers and militants on this long-suffering land, the further it will be from the long-awaited peace.
Author:
Photos used:
Wikipedia / Tripoli
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  1. Livonetc
    Livonetc 6 October 2020 18: 21
    -1
    "Recently intensified diplomatic contacts on this topic between Ankara and Moscow. The Turkish Foreign Ministry recently stated that the countries are" close to agreeing on all parameters of a ceasefire "in the Libyan conflict."
    An interesting trend is emerging.
    Turkey and Russia, without becoming allies, are increasingly becoming geopolitical partners.
    While the tandem is working.
    And something suggests that a similar option is being implemented in Karabakh.
    1. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 6 October 2020 19: 11
      +3
      Quote: Livonetc
      "Recently intensified diplomatic contacts on this topic between Ankara and Moscow. The Turkish Foreign Ministry recently stated that the countries are" close to agreeing on all parameters of a ceasefire "in the Libyan conflict."
      An interesting trend is emerging.
      Turkey and Russia, without becoming allies, are increasingly becoming geopolitical partners.
      While the tandem is working.
      And something suggests that a similar option is being implemented in Karabakh.

      When the prospect of the introduction of Egyptian troops lit up there, Erdogan decided that it would be better to settle the matter with Moscow and delimit the zones of interests of the LNA and PNS, and given that these interests overlap, he decided to strengthen his position through Azerbaijan by forcing the situation in Karabakh, at the same time utilizing their controlled "homeless people" who may remain out of work in Libya.
      1. Livonetc
        Livonetc 6 October 2020 19: 24
        +2
        There are guys like that.
        1. Nyrobsky
          Nyrobsky 6 October 2020 20: 30
          +6
          Quote: Livonetc
          There are guys like that.

          In Libya, their earnings dropped to $ 500 a month, and for participation in the Karabakh conflict they were promised up to 2000 d / month. Only - "Not only everyone can get them, or rather, few people can do it"(almost according to V. Klitschko)
      2. EnGenius
        EnGenius 7 October 2020 14: 39
        +1
        Now the stake has been made on the elections, as there is no legitimate government, there is only a legitimate parliament in Tobruk. The PNS is the appointees of the West, the LNA formally did not obey him, since it did not recognize it. Turkey continues to supply weapons and mercenaries. Just yesterday I watched the PNS "exercises" near Sirte with the participation of 5-6 tanks, so the tankers there are obviously African blacks, not all of them, of course, but most of them. As soon as the elections take place, the war will continue, as neither Egypt nor Turkey will agree to give Libya. The elections were supposed to take place back in 2019. Now there is some unhealthy lull, the date of the elections is not known, but the governments of the PNS and LNA were allegedly disbanded. It is likely that Egypt is also pumping the LNA with weapons and Germans.
        1. Nyrobsky
          Nyrobsky 7 October 2020 19: 02
          0
          Quote: engenius
          but the governments of the PNS and LNA were allegedly disbanded.

          Not supposedly, but the way it is. According to the "Skhirat" agreement, the mandate of the government of Saraja expired in 2018, and he was stirring up the water until 2020. In addition, he "ended up" with ties with terrorist organizations (IS, Al-Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood), which are recognized as such at the UN level. The fact that Saraji may be left out of work is a problem for Erdogan, with whom he kept a lot on personal agreements. The new leader of the PNS, depending on whose "wing" he is under, may not be so accommodating, and Edik may have problems with justifying the presence of Turkish troops in Libya. Well, while Haftar was the commander of the LNA, he remained the commander. hi
    2. Boris ⁣ Shaver
      Boris ⁣ Shaver 6 October 2020 22: 57
      -2
      Quote: Livonetc
      An interesting trend is emerging

      Yeah. Doing business in Karabakh, the Turks cover their "rear", talking to us about Libya, holding regular negotiations, any results of which they will spit as easily as they easily spat on the agreements on Idlib. And we are glad: we are sitting - our ears are hanging.
  2. rocket757
    rocket757 6 October 2020 18: 38
    +2
    The country was torn to shreds, shit-ratizers ... now it's hard to put it together into a single whole!
    1. Reptiloid
      Reptiloid 6 October 2020 18: 54
      +1
      Quote: rocket757
      The country was torn to shreds, shit-ratizers ... now it's hard to put it together into a single whole!

      hi Victor! So after all, those who tear want to break into the smallest pieces, There are many examples after the destruction of the USSR
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 6 October 2020 19: 03
        +2
        Hi Dmitry soldier
        There were enough examples before, it was the custom since ancient times.
        Not one flourishing country was torn to shreds, divided into appanages.
        This is nothing new.
        The conquistadors are new, the methods are still the same.
        1. Reptiloid
          Reptiloid 6 October 2020 19: 12
          +2
          Quote: rocket757
          ...... There is nothing new in that.
          The conquistadors are new, the methods are still the same.
          Internet technologies, technology, weapons are the most modern - everything is used for these purposes
          1. rocket757
            rocket757 6 October 2020 19: 14
            +2
            These are just the conveniences that progress brings. Previously, the same thing was done by other methods.
  3. Petr Vladimirovich
    Petr Vladimirovich 6 October 2020 18: 49
    +2
    Lived, did not grieve, but now?
    1. Lopatov
      Lopatov 6 October 2020 21: 03
      +3
      Quote: Petr Vladimirovich
      Lived, did not grieve, but now?

      And now freedom and democracy ...
  4. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov 6 October 2020 19: 42
    +1
    Before the blockade, Libya produced about 1,2 million barrels of oil per day. Today, 4-5 times less.
    The return of a player like Libya to the oil market will instantly bring down prices, with all that it implies.