Military Review

Why Bloomberg is betting on the ruble, and the Bank of Russia on the euro and dollar

41

The prognosis is not yet a diagnosis



On the threshold of autumn, many Western analysts, traditionally critical of commodity currencies such as the ruble, suddenly changed their attitude towards them. At the same time, the reason for the changes was not only the stable situation on the hydrocarbon market, but also the recently manifested resistance of the same ruble to geopolitical risks.

The reputable agency Bloomberg has accumulated analysts' forecasts regarding the Russian ruble for September. Surprisingly, most of them believe that if the ruble is threatened, it is more likely to strengthen than a fall in the exchange rate.

Why Bloomberg is betting on the ruble, and the Bank of Russia on the euro and dollar

Thus, according to Citigroup experts, the ruble will strengthen against the dollar by 6% in the near future. In terms of the exchange rate, we can talk about 70-72 rubles per dollar. Most analysts' assessments of the ruble appreciation against the euro are more modest: by no more than 3-4,5%, although it is possible that the rate may go below the psychologically important mark of 80 rubles.

In their forecasts, Western experts, as you know, proceed from a fairly rigid peg of the ruble exchange rate to oil prices. Since the spring collapse caused by the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and in general with OPEC, they have grown by almost 30%.

It seems to us that the experts, mentioning the stability of the same ruble to geopolitical risks, either simply forgot or deliberately silenced the Celestial Empire factor. Therefore, it is worth reminding those who are especially forgetful: the first, even earlier than in Russia, the results of the Belarusian presidential elections were recognized in China.

Moreover, they recognized without any reservations and even reminded that the Chinese observers, unlike the OSCE representatives, still visited the republic of the union of Russia. And this is despite the coronavirus, since in Belarus all quarantines and restrictions, as you know, are reduced to a reasonable minimum.

One cannot but give credit to the Belarusian authorities in this regard: the boundaries of this minimum in the country are clearly and rigidly delineated. They are delineated so as not to interfere with anyone, their own citizens or guests, to fulfill those requirements from which they themselves may suffer.

They just won't have time


By all indications, a difficult August awaited us. And the first victim, according to many analysts, should have been the Russian ruble. Since the beginning of the active fight against coronavirus and with its own population, it has managed to lose almost 10% at the rate.

But, as it turns out, by doing so, he only accumulated growth potential at the exchange rate against world currencies. The insignificant and smooth devaluation of the ruble, which was not hindered by the Central Bank, reduced the burden on the budget and helped the banks (whose position is a little lower) to stay afloat.

The last month of summer really turned out to be difficult, although it could be much worse. Endurance and patience, which, no matter what the Western media said, both Minsk and Moscow were able to show, by all indications, worked. In addition, the customers of the Belarusian Maidan, obviously, simply ran out of their PR budget.

Nor did the factor of "Navalny's poisoning", which was launched in a timely manner, work as someone would have liked. Those who have not yet lost the ability to make an objective assessment will certainly pay attention to the fact that the "terrible" happened just when it became clear that Belarus, speaking the language of teenagers, does not work.

The commentary published on the network resources of the Shroder Investment company was very characteristic in this regard. Its author, James Barrino, finance manager for emerging markets, believes that all threats to Americans in the foreseeable future cannot be realized by definition.

The reason lies on the surface: too little time remains before the presidential elections in the United States. The local legislators will not have time to discuss and introduce new sanctions, especially since they now have enough worries inside the country.

Saving banks, drowning clients?


Despite all the positive outlooks, the Russian banking sector is now teetering on the brink of survival. Support from the Central Bank in any of its forms gives some effect, but the passivity of clients clearly outweighs. Bankers are also frightened by the very real, according to many estimates, the prospect of depriving them of access to payments in US dollars.


The fact that such a threat, unlike the notorious sanctions, is quite real, Fitch Solution analysts said the other day. Specialists of this expert subdivision of the Fitch rating agency, one of the “big three”, remind that it is much easier to impose such restrictions in the SWIFT system of international settlements than sanctions.

On our own note, the grounds for such a decision should be much more weighty. So according to Stanislavsky: we do not believe! However, the bankers themselves seem to believe and are in a hurry to spread straws. No wonder they bought 2020 times more currency in the first half of 18 than a year earlier.

The total purchase amount has already been calculated by the Bank of Russia. This is 9,5 trillion. rub. Bankers could, of course, buy such amounts exclusively for themselves, loved ones, but, as you know, few people need money lying like a dead weight, even currency. This means that there was and is a demand for currency from customers, including ordinary citizens.

By the way, this is exactly what was noted in the comments of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation regarding such a massive purchase of currency. In the first half of 2020, that is, in the midst of the anti-crisis struggle, Russians have somehow sharply increased their interest in foreign exchange assets. The public bought not only cash, but also shares of foreign companies and banks, as well as structured bonds with underlying assets in foreign currency.

It is indicative that many people acquired the latter, as if forgetting how in the fall of 2008 the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation itself was badly burned on such securities, together with mortgage receipts of the notorious Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

When the country was closed for entry and exit in the spring of 2020, severely limiting internal traffic (some electronic passes cost what), many became simply scared. People were in such a situation for the first time ever, and a kind of reflex worked - to buy currency "just in case."

Well, the banks did not fail to take advantage of this. The exodus to currency, which primarily hits the ruble, and hence the citizens themselves, does not in the least prevent the same Bank of Russia from feeding banks with soft loans, reducing reserve requirements, and weakening currency controls.

Credit is not a cause for concern


The latest innovation in this regard is the easing of conditions for issuing unsecured consumer loans. But this does not concern the recipients of loans, but the credit institutions themselves. Nevertheless, commercial banks support the initiative of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and believe that it will help further revitalize lending activity in Russia.

According to the press service of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, “the values ​​of the premiums to the risk ratios for unsecured consumer loans issued from September 1, 2020 have been reduced. This measure is aimed at supporting retail lending in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation explains.

It is not difficult to judge whether the ordinary clients of banks are receiving at least some positive wave from such favors from the Bank of Russia. As they say, this is unlikely. The gap in lending rates and interest on deposits has already become threefold, and 6,5% per annum on mortgages, which go to a select few, are presented in advertising as the greatest blessing.

The Bank of Russia continues to insist that it is not interested in the excessive strengthening of the ruble. But it is interesting that Western analysts consider even the purchase of currency, which happened in the wake of the coronavirus panic, as a factor in favor of the ruble. They do not hide their confidence that the public will soon have to dump the currency - simply because of poverty, and this will support the ruble exchange rate.

Apparently, the data for July added optimism to foreign experts, which confirmed a sharp increase in business activity of enterprises and the private sector. The volume of foreign currency corporate lending increased immediately - by 7,4% (excluding currency revaluation of rates).

The August indicators will almost certainly be no worse than July, but both the situation in Belarus and the decreasing risks of new sanctions will contribute to this. Even the fallen demand for Russian debt securities and the fixation of profits by foreign investors on previously purchased bonds will not interfere.
Author:
Photos used:
pbs.twimg.com, depositphotos.ru, cryptocurrency.tech
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  1. Asad
    Asad 6 September 2020 05: 37
    10
    Damn analysts! Maybe 70 rubles, maybe 80!
    1. Mavrikiy
      Mavrikiy 6 September 2020 05: 52
      0
      The total purchase amount has already been calculated by the Bank of Russia. This is 9,5 trillion. rub. This means that there was and is a demand for currency from customers, including ordinary citizens.
      belay Yes, "currency to the masses!" Good volume. Either the ruble is a piece of paper, or we all work and we have shoe polish in our pockets ....... repeat
      1. Stas157
        Stas157 6 September 2020 07: 28
        11
        What is the strengthening of the ruble, the rate of 75 per dollar? And when did the ruble strengthen? I don’t know such a happy period!

        For the dollar. Not long ago, at the beginning of this year, the usual ruble exchange rate was 60-65 per green. Everything, now you can safely forget about it. Wooden is now defined in the new economic reality. The question boils down to what new corridor it will occupy. Ideal (cheap) 68-72. Maybe higher. Time will tell everything. But to call the new, higher corridor a fortification is to lie against the truth.
      2. Nikolay Ivanov_5
        Nikolay Ivanov_5 6 September 2020 07: 30
        -1
        Quote: Mavrikiy
        The total purchase amount has already been calculated by the Bank of Russia. This is 9,5 trillion. rub. This means that there was and is a demand for currency from customers, including ordinary citizens.
        belay Yes, "currency to the masses!" Good volume. Either the ruble is a piece of paper, or we all work and we have shoe polish in our pockets ....... repeat


        All contributions to unallocated precious metals accounts. repeat
        1. bk0010
          bk0010 6 September 2020 14: 15
          +2
          Quote: Nikolai Ivanov_5
          All contributions to unallocated precious metals accounts.
          This is the same as on paper: the bank in which the account is opened can set the rate of 3 rubles. per gram of your precious metal and you cannot do anything about it.
          1. Nikolay Ivanov_5
            Nikolay Ivanov_5 6 September 2020 14: 25
            0
            Study the question better ...
            https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Обезличенный_металлический_счёт
            1. bk0010
              bk0010 6 September 2020 14: 31
              +1
              In such a matter, a reference to Wikipedia is inappropriate, see the agreements, they clearly indicate that each bank sets the quotes for unidentified metal accounts by itself. And no one will be able to oblige him (in the event of a crisis) to set the exchange rate at the exchange price.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 6 September 2020 07: 40
      +1
      The EU has its own currency and its own bank, not a private Nabiulla branch of the Federal Reserve. lol
    3. Civil
      Civil 6 September 2020 10: 05
      0
      Quote: ASAD
      Despite all the positive outlooks, the Russian banking sector is now teetering on the brink of survival.

      Thank you neighing, a gang of bank clerks bought up the rest of the currencies and is taking everything to the West, preparing for a hard landing of the economy and sanctions, so the ruble is dying from this again. The main thing is to withdraw money, but what about the local banks, they don't care. As with the natives ...
  2. rocket757
    rocket757 6 September 2020 05: 49
    +4
    Cool .... For the majority, all this did not mean anything and in any way, if the authorities would not cling to all these problems to our internal affairs !!!
    As in the bazaar - Aunt, why were there five sunflower seeds, yesterday three? So the dollar went up !!!
    You need to protect your internal market, then citizens will not buy green papers and keep them in BANKS !!! or under the mattress.
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 6 September 2020 07: 38
        +2
        What, not at all?
        The domestic market is somewhat larger than smartphone stores.
        There are many problems, but the replacement process is underway, in many places.
        Just the restrictions due to the hillock stimulated domestic production SIGNIFICANTLY!
        1. Clear
          Clear 6 September 2020 12: 52
          +1
          Quote: rocket757
          Just the restrictions due to the hillock stimulated domestic production SIGNIFICANTLY!

          Victor, well, your post does not fit into the trend "everything is bad and will be even worse" crying
          1. rocket757
            rocket757 6 September 2020 13: 37
            +1
            I'm not working in a trend, but in INDUSTRY.
            If in micro electronics we sucks, so I write!
            If our industrial equipment has become much better, then EVERYONE should see who works in the industry !!!
            It's embarrassing to be silent, Schaub is in trend, it is out of place for me, not for age, not for convictions ...
            Still such a trifle .... I write as it is, I scold and praise for the cause, I don't care about trends and the mainstream and still get more positive reviews than others! It's IMMEDIATELY SEE!
  3. apro
    apro 6 September 2020 05: 58
    +7
    It's okay. All these fortune-telling on the coffee grounds in front of an uninformed public. Are pursuing the goal of appeasing the people with the aim of ..... again, someone will grab money. In any case, the ruble is a market instrument for making profit from the territory of Russia. And all its falls and short ups are only at the hands of financial speculators ... oh sorry. financial geniuses of a market economy. a stable ruble is not needed by anyone. you cannot make easy money on it ...
  4. parusnik
    parusnik 6 September 2020 06: 09
    +7
    As they say, everything will be fine, Bloomberg told me about this yesterday smile
    1. Clear
      Clear 6 September 2020 13: 01
      +1
      Quote: parusnik
      As they say, everything will be fine, Bloomberg told me about this yesterday smile

      Oh, Grandpa Michael Bloomberg himself? belay And how much does he charge for the supply of financial information for professional participants in financial markets and friends from the VO website? winked
  5. Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx 6 September 2020 06: 23
    +5
    All this nonsense from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is tired of listening. There is reliable data on the dollar exchange rate for past years:

    Today the course:

    In addition, according to the purchase of currency:

    And the Central Bank, represented by the best banker in Europe, Mrs. Nabiullina Elvira Sahip-zade, makes predictions ... wassat
    By 2024, the dollar will be worth its price in rubles, and the ruble, a derivative of the dollar that is not backed by gold content and is not a reserve currency, will be a means of payment for Russia and will be devalued by at least 16 percent (according to average inflation rates).
    yes
  6. Stas157
    Stas157 6 September 2020 07: 08
    +6
    ... The gap in lending rates and interest on deposits has already become threefold, and 6,5% per annum on mortgages, which go to a select few, are presented in advertising as the greatest good.

    It would be better if Putin didn’t even voice this figure! Benefactor! Said on TV, they say the mortgage is now 6,5% !! Where?? For whom?? Obviously not for me. Yesterday I was interested in mortgages, no one gives less than 9%. How I get a mortgage, I can unsubscribe how much I managed.

    Mortgages at 9% - extraordinary bestiality, given that the Central Bank rate is 4%, more than two times lower.
  7. Doccor18
    Doccor18 6 September 2020 07: 13
    +3
    that if something threatens the ruble, it is more likely a strengthening than a fall in the exchange rate ...

    The ruble falls or strengthens, the price of oil either goes down or rises, inflation is within the permitted limits (according to Rosstat), and the standard of living and incomes of the majority of the population only falls. Oh, and this science is complicated - economics ...
    1. Sotskiy
      Sotskiy 6 September 2020 08: 37
      +6
      Quote: Doccor18
      Oh, and this science is complicated - economics ...

      Yeah. Especially when market thimblers rule the economy.
  8. Doctor
    Doctor 6 September 2020 07: 59
    +4
    While our Central Bank invests profits in the US economy, you can be calm for the dollar. laughing

    Even Deripaska is outraged:

    1. And why do you need
      And why do you need 6 September 2020 13: 01
      -1
      Quote: Arzt
      While our Central Bank invests profits in the US economy, you can be calm for the dollar. laughing

      Even Deripaska is outraged:


      Deripaska is offended, apparently from the West too. Like all oligarchs, he thinks only about himself
  9. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov 6 September 2020 08: 59
    +4

    - And now, Yosik, I will reveal to you the biggest secret of our family.
    One day the president will say that he does not change a mediocre government just because "these are already experienced" and "survived crises." From now on, you must be on your guard. Remember?
    - Remember, grandfather.
    - Then the head of this very government will suddenly say that he advises everyone to keep money in rubles. Here you have to get ready, collect all your rubles in one pile. And even take them wherever you can.
    - Well, grandfather.
    - Well, when the Minister of Finance begins to reassure: "Do not buy dollars. The government and the Central Bank have all the tools to ensure the financial stability of the state" ...
    - Then I have to calm down?
    - Come on! At this very moment, grab this whole bunch and urgently, you hear, URGENTLY run to the bank to exchange them for dollars! This 100% means that the tricksters from the government want to throw everyone away and again stir up the crisis.
    1. Cherry Nine
      Cherry Nine 6 September 2020 10: 11
      +1
      The right approach.

      If Netanyahu advises you to keep your money in rubles, then you definitely need to buy dollars for all the money, and a ticket to the States for dollars. Don't expect any good with a crazy prime minister.
    2. Clear
      Clear 6 September 2020 13: 08
      -1
      Quote: A. Privalov
      - And now, Yosik, I will reveal to you the biggest secret of our family.

      Yosik: - grandfather, judging by how well you know all the techniques and tricks of these
      Quote: A. Privalov
      government cunning
      still, I have no doubt that they are your students yes
      1. A. Privalov
        A. Privalov 6 September 2020 13: 19
        +6
        Quote: Clear
        Quote: A. Privalov
        - And now, Yosik, I will reveal to you the biggest secret of our family.

        Yosik: - grandfather, judging by how well you know all the techniques and tricks of these
        Quote: A. Privalov
        government cunning
        still, I have no doubt that they are your students yes

        I remember the old joke:
        Blonde:
        - What if you don't know what to say?
        Grandfather:
        - You don't know what to say - smile and straighten your bra ...
        love
        1. Clear
          Clear 6 September 2020 13: 28
          0
          Quote: A. Privalov
          Quote: Clear
          Quote: A. Privalov
          - And now, Yosik, I will reveal to you the biggest secret of our family.

          Yosik: - grandfather, judging by how well you know all the techniques and tricks of these
          Quote: A. Privalov
          government cunning
          still, I have no doubt that they are your students yes

          I remember the old joke:
          Blonde:
          - What if you don't know what to say?
          Grandfather:
          - You don't know what to say - smile and straighten your bra ...
          love

          Sasha, usually Jews, with this anecdote, start a conversation with his wife when they drink the advance lol
  10. Engineer
    Engineer 6 September 2020 11: 15
    +1
    A funny article without links, but with a retelling of someone else's opinion.
    Number of times. We look at budget execution in the Russian Federation
    https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4416178
    Federal budget revenues for the first half of 2020 lagged behind the expenditures that increased due to the epidemic by almost 1 trillion rubles. How much the resulting budget deficit is in the usual percentage of GDP, the Ministry of Finance has not reported for the second month. Estimated, however, the size of the hole in the budget does not look like a catastrophe - so far it is about 2% of GDP, while the Ministry of Finance expected by the end of the year 5%

    The budget deficit will be replenished by foreign exchange earnings. An increase in these receipts should not be expected. All will be offset by the forced depreciation of the ruble so that export earnings will become more expensive.
    Number two. The case with Navalny will certainly inspire new sanctions. Sanctions are a new sinking of the ruble. Is always
    Number three. In the short term, oil is unlikely to rise. Now it is falling amid rumors of discounts from the Saudis.
    https://www.finanz.ru/birzhevyye-tovary/neft-cena

    What to do?
    We monitor the market every day.
    If the rate is volatile, set yourself a buy threshold. So on the first of September it was 73.50. There will be something close - feel free to buy.
    Don't expect a better price. The downward trend has taken shape - take action. Didn't hit the best price - don't worry. In any long term, you will still win ALWAYS
    Buy dollars euros in the proportion of 50-50. Adjust the purchasing ratio depending on the forecasts in the dollar-euro pair, but not according to the forecasts in the ruble-euro-dollar triangle.
  11. bandabas
    bandabas 6 September 2020 11: 47
    +1
    Conclusion one - "Citizens! Keep savings in the" green "!". And in cash hi .
    1. The comment was deleted.
  12. 72jora72
    72jora72 6 September 2020 12: 00
    +2
    Russian banking sector is now teetering on the brink of survival
    Probably the poor need help, we will throw off who can do anything !!!
    1. Clear
      Clear 6 September 2020 13: 18
      0
      Quote: 72jora72
      Russian banking sector is now teetering on the brink of survival
      Probably the poor need help, we will throw off who can do anything !!!

      Let's fold and someone winked "order" ...? And the "edge of survival" will immediately be irrelevant.
      1. 72jora72
        72jora72 6 September 2020 13: 21
        +2
        Let's throw in and winked someone ...? And the "edge of survival" will immediately be irrelevant.
        Well, I have a damn good Swiss ice ax ........
        1. Clear
          Clear 6 September 2020 13: 31
          0
          Quote: 72jora72
          Let's throw in and winked someone ...? And the "edge of survival" will immediately be irrelevant.
          Well, I have a damn good Swiss ice ax ........

          Oops, belay Seryozha, we can work on the OPS crying We leave one by one, and if CHO, we are geologists bully
  13. Aleks2000
    Aleks2000 6 September 2020 14: 14
    0
    And in other articles the ptschut is exactly the opposite.
    Simple check - yandex - USD 75,43 + 0,15

    So, those who have real money choose the buck ...
  14. bk0010
    bk0010 6 September 2020 14: 19
    +2
    The insignificant and smooth devaluation of the ruble, which was not hindered by the Central Bank, reduced the burden on the budget and helped the banks (whose position is a little lower) to stay afloat.
    And if only when they helped people keep their earnings and income levels, bastards.
  15. bk0010
    bk0010 6 September 2020 14: 22
    +2
    Bankers are also frightened by the very real, according to many estimates, the prospect of depriving them of access to payments in US dollars.
    Not a problem at all: in this case, we must start our emission of dollars in the amount we need. And we will interfere with the work of SWIFT, up to cutting cables (if it does not work for us, then let it not work at all). It is stupid to throw stones in a glass house.