Military Review

Expert of the Baltic Defense College of Estonia: Belarusian officers strongly support Moscow

108

This is the conclusion reached by military expert Lukas Dycka from the Baltic Defense College in Estonia. He believes that the military can play a key role in the further development of events in Belarus.


According to Lukash Dychka, officers of the Belarusian armed forces currently see Russia as an example for inspiration. Years of the country's pro-Russian orientation are making themselves felt: the Belarusian army is seen as a natural ally not in the United States or the European Union, but in Russia.

The main reasons for the pro-Russian orientation of the Belarusian military


The pro-Russian attitude of the Belarusian military can be explained quite simply. First, most of the current officers of the country's armed forces graduated from Russian military schools and academies. The country's military elite, therefore, has the experience of studying in Russia, during which it was constantly in the orbit of Russian cultural and political influence.

Secondly, the majority of Belarusian senior officers have close personal ties with Russian generals and officers, with whom they have years of study and regular interaction at joint military events within the CSTO. The ties between the Russian and Belarusian military are much stronger and closer than between Russian and Belarusian politicians or officials.

Lukasz Dychka believes that the Belarusian military want much closer cooperation with Moscow than even Alexander Lukashenko himself. If the "dad" in recent years gravitated towards a more independent policy and constantly criticized the "elder brother", then the generals and officers of the Belarusian army would like to interact with Russia much more positively.


While the security forces remain the main support of Alexander Grigorievich

The analyst makes an interesting conclusion: he warns the West against unequivocal support of the Belarusian opposition, as he sees them as not pro-Western forces. According to Dychka, the people who came out on the Minsk square with slogans against President Lukashenka, in reality, may be much more pro-Russian than the “father” himself. In the West, it is mistakenly believed that the entire street opposition in Belarus opposes cooperation with Russia. But this is not at all the case.

Why Russian policy in Belarus will be different than in Ukraine


The West and homegrown liberals today admire the army and police officers who are demonstratively resigning in protest against Lukashenka's policies.

But Dychka warns: the security officials are very sympathetic to Moscow and the fact that they do not agree with the "dad" does not mean anything yet.

Perhaps they expect that Lukashenka should be replaced by a politician who is more friendly towards Russia. In addition, the Belarusian military see that in the same Russia their colleagues are paid much more, they have more opportunities for all kinds of benefits, receiving awards.

Finally, belonging to a great power with a great army also means a lot. Lukasz Dychka cites as an example the behavior of the Ukrainian military who served in Crimea on the eve of his reunification with Russia: most of them chose to immediately switch to Russian military service.

As for Russia's policy, it will be fundamentally different from what we could observe in 2014 with regard to Ukraine. In Belarus, there is no such split of society as in Ukraine. And the attitude towards Russia in general is much better. Therefore, Moscow will prefer not to provide military assistance to Lukashenka. But on the other hand, it will give the Belarusians a feeling that the “father” is not a strong and independent politician and his social achievements are close to collapse. In this case, neighboring and more prosperous Russia will become an even more desirable and exemplary model for Belarusians.

Ultimately, pro-Russian forces can come to power in Belarus on their own, and no military support from the Kremlin will be required, since the Belarusian armed forces themselves will act as a force resource to ensure this process.
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  1. Alexga
    Alexga 19 August 2020 14: 03
    46
    By and large, this expert is not far from the truth.
    1. HAM
      HAM 19 August 2020 14: 09
      29
      Because he himself studied, for sure, in the Soviet school
      1. Alexga
        Alexga 19 August 2020 14: 13
        27
        Actually, he voiced the obvious thing, especially since he had a Regional Force Group.
        1. boni592807
          boni592807 19 August 2020 21: 00
          +2
          Colleague, AlexGa (Alexander), Today, 14:13, you say that: "... Actually, he voiced the obvious thing, especially since he had the Regional Force Group ...." hi

          "Never, say never" is an old truth. No. Let's go through the unpleasantness, then you can say Gop!
          There are precedents of Iraq (Hussein), Libya (Kadaffi), and the USSR (, or do you believe joke that one of the first 2 countries in the world (USSR AND USA), at the peak of its power, take it and DOWNLOAD. ... Ask the servicemen of the USSR about the possibility of the fall of the USSR from 85 to 91. At first, from 85, they would "crumple" (or to a special department), and then they would say about 91 (only to put things in order). Who believed about the possibility of NOT brothers - Ukrainians? NOBODY!
          Loyal, reliable, proven, well-mannered and ... so nowhere ...
          An old parable - "... what one donkey laden with gold can do, the whole army cannot ..." bully And the "partners" understand the PROSPECTS and the price, a trifle with promising bonuses from winning.
          I would like to believe that the ride on the "battery" will end (USSR, U "kraina, 33" heroes "face to the floor in Belarus). bully , what kind of plops, that way, and we "suddenly" can .... But there are enough factors ..., they will not be enough to draw.
          Including, As the current NON-brothers say - "Dumkoy richer!" Russia has no time to scratch turnips! Something like this! I think so! hi
          1. krot
            krot 20 August 2020 08: 06
            +1
            Belarusian officers strongly support Moscow

            And in their opinion, Belarusian officers should support NATO?
      2. Insurgent
        Insurgent 19 August 2020 14: 18
        13
        According to Lukash Dychka, officers of the Belarusian armed forces currently see Russia as an example for inspiration. Years of the country's pro-Russian orientation are making themselves felt: the Belarusian army is seen as a natural ally not in the United States or the European Union, but in Russia.


        That's the opening ...! After all, this is Belarus.

        Lukashenko (in this he must be given credit), despite all of his "eccentricities",did not set up an army against Russia.

        And it must be admitted that such an assessment takes place, especially against the background of the Outskirts, where over the decades of "independence" the officer corps was brought up in an anti-Russian orientation.
        1. Charik
          Charik 19 August 2020 15: 05
          +2
          but I think it was not upbringing that played but the $$$ influenced the Ukrainian military students in the USSR
          1. Insurgent
            Insurgent 19 August 2020 16: 37
            +2
            Quote: Charik
            but I think it was not upbringing that played but the $$$ influenced the Ukrainian military students in the USSR

            А what is upbringing such mankurts, if not stimulation with "carrot and stick"?
      3. Tatyana
        Tatyana 19 August 2020 14: 39
        +4
        Still, the impression is that the military expert Lukasz Dychka from the Baltic Defense College in Estonia is not saying something, or is deliberately confusing something. Namely.

        The essence of Lukasz Dychka's assumption boils down, in fact, to the following:
        1. To instigate the pro-Russian-minded Belarusian military, if any, to go over to the side of the allegedly pro-Russian opposition for Tikhanovskaya. This is for the very ones who stand with the comprador white-red-white Belarusian flag of Hitler's supporters during WWII ?!
        2. Promises the Belarusians and promotes the forceful non-intervention of the Russian Federation within the framework of the Union Treaty in the event of an armed STATE REVOLUTION by the security forces in Belarus.
        And where, in the opinion of the Estonian military expert, will the Belarusian Armed Forces of Lukashenka himself move if the expert supposes his replacement? And who will they put in his place? Are there real candidates in the Lukashenka’s apparatus? Where does this intrigue-demagogy come from?
        1. dSK
          dSK 19 August 2020 14: 50
          +8
          REPORTER 19.08.20/XNUMX/XNUMX .:
          "It is especially worth mentioning the tandem of Vakulchik and Vladimir Makei." Ulitsa "stands up for the non-system oppositionist Tikhanovskaya, but any real behind-the-scenes game needs its own “gray eminence”. The head of the Foreign Ministry of Belarus Vladimir Makei is now called as such. He is considered a supporter of rapprochement with the West, it was Makei who brought Mike Pompeo to Minsk. In case of Lukashenka's resignation, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus may head the transitional government.
          The EU prepares to provide assistance to all striking workers in Belarus. This will go together with sanctions against Lukashenka's entourage...
          People also raise money for the strikers and are ready to support them. There are many funds, the money is replenished daily. Do not be afraid!
          In general, Alexander Grigorievich alone cannot withstand. All around is deception, cowardice and betrayal.
          He has only one way out - real integration with Russia. Himself he can no longer hold Belarus. "
          1. dSK
            dSK 19 August 2020 14: 55
            +4
            The leaders of the EU countries gathered today for an emergency summit on Belarus.
            The meeting is held behind closed doors in the format of a video conference.

            This morning, former Belarusian presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya recorded a video message to the European Council. She asked the summit participants not to recognize the results of the Belarusian presidential elections.
          2. Alex777
            Alex777 19 August 2020 17: 36
            +4
            ... that any real behind-the-scenes game needs its own “gray eminence”. The head of the Foreign Ministry of Belarus Vladimir Makei is now called as such.

            This Makei is the first check of "dad" for lice.
            If he is not in the new government, this will be the first step in the right direction.
            His subordinates, ambassadors, AHL framed the whole world.
            If Makei remains in the new government, it means that "dad" is hunchbacked and incorrigible. hi
            1. Alex777
              Alex777 19 August 2020 18: 42
              +3
              By the way, here's what Makei's charges in Ukraine did:
              “The previous ambassador (Valentin Velichko, who died in 2018) was elderly. The new one - Igor Sokol - is fraternizing with the Poles here. Attends all Polish events, the Baltic-Black Sea Union, the Intermarium project. And not only speaks Belarusian everywhere, but also says that this the historical union of Poland, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine will sooner or later become a reality", - one of the Ukrainian political scientists tells the newspaper VZGLYAD.

              https://vz.ru/world/2020/8/19/1055795.html

              And then we are surprised that our people are being arrested in Belarus.

              And that's where all those white-red-white flags come from.
              1. Alex777
                Alex777 19 August 2020 21: 21
                -2
                Long live the AHL and its permanent minister Makei!
                Someone in doubt? wink
                1. Alex777
                  Alex777 19 August 2020 21: 35
                  -1
                  Lukashenko reappointed the entire government headed by Prime Minister Golovchenko


                  Since the government is the same, then the policy will be the same.
                  Makey is in place.

                  https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/9241109
        2. Doliva63
          Doliva63 19 August 2020 17: 46
          +3
          I have a dozen classmates who still serve in the Defense Ministry and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, of which only 2 came from Belarus (1 is a Minsk cadet, 1 is after school), the rest are native Muscovites. And how many Muscovites, Leningraders, Sverdlovsk citizens from other schools? In RB, probably, in fact, the SA is still laughing There will be no military coup there.
          1. Insurgent
            Insurgent 19 August 2020 18: 29
            +2
            Quote: Doliva63
            There will be no military coup there.

            But it’s not necessary.

            It is enough for the army and the Ministry of Internal Affairs to remain faithful to the Constitution and military duty.
            1. Doliva63
              Doliva63 19 August 2020 18: 47
              +2
              Quote: Insurgent
              Quote: Doliva63
              There will be no military coup there.

              But it’s not necessary.

              It is enough for the army and the Ministry of Internal Affairs to remain faithful to the Constitution and military duty.

              I guess the guys out there think the same drinks
          2. Alexga
            Alexga 19 August 2020 20: 55
            +1
            The last graduates of the Soviet VU are Orjo 1992. This is who I met.
            1. Doliva63
              Doliva63 20 August 2020 19: 49
              0
              Quote: AlexGa
              The last graduates of the Soviet VU are Orjo 1992. This is who I met.

              No, not only Orjo and not only 1992 onwards, there are also earlier, and from other VU.
              1. Alexga
                Alexga 20 August 2020 20: 14
                0
                I wrote about the latest issue of the Soviet VU. In previous years, naturally, a graduate of many military schools of the USSR arrived.
                1. Doliva63
                  Doliva63 20 August 2020 20: 25
                  +1
                  Now I understand. drinks
        3. Vasya rock
          Vasya rock 21 August 2020 11: 46
          0
          I am a citizen of the Republic of Belarus. And I don't care about flags. Any. But how they beat me on the 10th. I was never hit like that. Close your mouth to couch experts. Our people are united and free. Long live Belarus.
          1. Tatyana
            Tatyana 21 August 2020 12: 49
            +1
            Quote: Vasya Rock
            I am a citizen of the Republic of Belarus. And I don't care about flags. Any. But how they beat me on the 10th. I was never hit like that. Our people are united and free. Long live Belarus.
            It’s bad that you don’t care about flags - any. I don’t believe in your indifference to flags. That is why you have become the "protest meat" of the comprador opposition in Belarus. This is your personal choice. You will live under the Poles. It is possible that in serving the Pole you will also advance in your career. So learn Polish!
            Everyone saw the recording of the story of the girl who spoke about how she was tortured by the police. This is Vasilisa Golikova, the protest coordinator in Minsk, in the Uruchye microdistrict.
            Not so long ago a recording of her audio instructions on how to organize a hunt for riot police has become available. Was the girl not so harmless? Sergei Mikheev is in touch: he analyzed the actions of the opposition and the authorities in Belarus.

            Lies by Vasilisa Golikova: background of the protest coordinator in Minsk / Sergey Mikheev • 15 aug. 2020
      4. Pete mitchell
        Pete mitchell 19 August 2020 20: 15
        0
        Quote: HAM
        Because he himself studied, for sure, in the Soviet school

        In the Armed Forces of the Baltic states, if there are still immigrants from the military schools of the Union, then it is really possible to count on the fingers of one hand. In Latvia they were 'cleaned out' a long time ago; there were not many of them in Estonia, the last graduates of 90'-91 'have already demobilized; there is little to eat in Lithuania ...
        So comrade just reasoning reasonably
    2. svp67
      svp67 19 August 2020 14: 55
      +2
      Quote: AlexGa
      By and large, this expert is not far from the truth.

      How to say
      The years of the country's pro-Russian orientation are making themselves felt: the Belarusian army is seen as a natural ally not in the United States or the European Union, but in Russia.
      Somehow this did not prevent Ukraine from being "reoriented"
      The pro-Russian attitude of the Belarusian military can be explained quite simply. First, most of the current officers of the country's armed forces graduated from Russian military schools and academies. ......
      Secondly, the majority of Belarusian senior officers have close personal ties with Russian generals and officers, with whom they have years of study and regular interaction at joint military events within the CSTO. ...
      Was it not so in Ukraine? And this did not stop them.
      All the same, a lot depends on education and "deep memory". And also, with the same views on the same "family values"
      1. Alexga
        Alexga 19 August 2020 15: 03
        +5
        I wrote below that the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are part of the Regional Group of Forces, which directly speaks of the direction and purpose of the activities of the army of Belarus.
        1. Insurgent
          Insurgent 19 August 2020 17: 17
          +1
          Quote: AlexGa
          I wrote below that the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are part of the Regional Group of Forces, which directly speaks of the direction and purpose of the activities of the army of Belarus.


          I believe that the situation with the RGV, which not so long ago during the Zapad-17 exercises practiced training tasks in the Western regions of the Republic of Belarus, will be clarified by a picture showing its actions. "to eliminate the threat of rejection of the territory by conditional insistence"in the conditional Veyshnoria - Viejšnoryja - Veyshnoria.



          Don't be confused by the infographics with captions not in Russian, they are "from there" ...
          1. Alexga
            Alexga 19 August 2020 17: 28
            +1
            You see how the Labus understand this if the Poles and Latvians still retain at least a part of their territory, and that's all for them, an animal with white fur. laughing
    3. Senka naughty
      Senka naughty 19 August 2020 16: 50
      +4
      Quote: AlexGa
      By and large, this expert is not far from the truth.


      By and large, ukasz Dyčka is a member of the Czech Defense University, not Estonia. And the fact that Russia and Belarus have more than 400 years of common history is, of course, news for today's youth.
      P.S. And as a result of a small Internet investigation, I can add that the character is either a fictional or a very new pseudonym.
      1. Alexga
        Alexga 19 August 2020 16: 57
        +2
        this is certainly news for today's youth.

        Just about, and now we are reaping the fruits of modern education. Here on a parallel branch, one clown is trying to pretend to be incomprehensible about the connection of their fat-meat-greasy flag and chants about "alive ..." with fascism.
      2. Elysium
        Elysium 19 August 2020 18: 09
        0
        Quote: Senka Mad
        or a very new pseudonym

        It looks like this.
        Lukasz Dychkоsaxophone player - representative Poland at Eurovision for Young Musicians 2016
    4. Incvizitor
      Incvizitor 19 August 2020 20: 27
      0
      Only here is not Russia and Belarus against the rotten Nazi separatists.
    5. iouris
      iouris 19 August 2020 20: 55
      0
      Quote: AlexGa
      this expert is not far from the truth.

      "The truth is in wine." We will observe how the bodies of the union state, which have received good funding for so many years, work. And the intelligence, it seems, was not up to par. No officers on their own should commit political actions aimed at overthrowing the president or changing the policy of the state. This is something completely different people are obliged to do. Quite different. But they can go on vacation.
    6. Fat
      Fat 21 August 2020 18: 54
      0
      Leave the Father.
  2. RUnnm
    RUnnm 19 August 2020 14: 06
    +2
    The talent of the Estonian military experts is directly proportional to the power of the Estonian Armed Forces.
    1. Pavel73
      Pavel73 19 August 2020 14: 09
      +5
      Judging by his first and last name, he is not Estonian.
      1. Victorio
        Victorio 19 August 2020 14: 20
        +2
        Quote: Pavel73
        Judging by his first and last name, he is not Estonian.

        ===
        I tried to search, links only to his statements. encrypted)
  3. Doctor
    Doctor 19 August 2020 14: 07
    0
    In the West, it is mistakenly believed that the entire street opposition in Belarus opposes cooperation with Russia. But this is not at all the case.

    Is it wrong? And where is at least one Russian flag here?

    1. carstorm 11
      carstorm 11 19 August 2020 14: 18
      +5
      I think no one will think of dragging the Russian flag there for one reason, what has Russia to do with it? although this rag that came out is a bad sign. white-red-white.
      1. Insurgent
        Insurgent 19 August 2020 14: 23
        +4
        Quote: carstorm 11
        I think no one will think of dragging the Russian flag there for one reason, what has Russia to do with it? although this rag that came out is a bad sign. white-red-white.


        Social experiment at the opposition rally.
        A man with a Russian flag and a T-shirt with Putin went to find out the attitude of the opposition to Russia and Putin.

        1. carstorm 11
          carstorm 11 19 August 2020 14: 45
          +7
          are there any sober at all?)
    2. Pereira
      Pereira 19 August 2020 14: 21
      +6
      Here, too, not everything is simple. The official flag is associated with Lukashenka, while the Russian flag will be out of place.
      What is in the minds of those without flags, we do not know for sure.
      Opposing Lukashenko and opposing an alliance with Russia are not the same thing, although people with different aspirations can meet on the street.
      When our people came out to protest against the pension reform, they were not only young people.
    3. prior
      prior 19 August 2020 14: 28
      +7
      The Belarusian authorities ought to ban this flag "lard-meat-lard" as a fascist symbolism. After all, it was under it that Belarusian collaborators fought with the USSR together with the Nazis.
      And the young people, they are all so protesting, do not even understand what kind of rag they are holding in their hands.
      1. user1212
        user1212 19 August 2020 15: 14
        +1
        Quote: prior
        And the young people, they are all so protesting, do not even understand what kind of rag they are holding in their hands.

        Or maybe he understands everything perfectly?
        1. prior
          prior 19 August 2020 15: 19
          +5
          And if he understands, then there is nothing to whine that the ribs believe them.
      2. Doliva63
        Doliva63 19 August 2020 17: 51
        0
        Quote: prior
        The Belarusian authorities ought to ban this flag "lard-meat-lard" as a fascist symbolism. After all, it was under it that Belarusian collaborators fought with the USSR together with the Nazis.
        And the young people, they are all so protesting, do not even understand what kind of rag they are holding in their hands.

        Under the "tricolor" Vlasov fought with the USSR - why was it not banned in Minsk? wassat
        1. Alexander Seklitsky
          Alexander Seklitsky 19 August 2020 18: 33
          +1
          Well, I must say that the tricolor dates back to Peter 1, but this red and white rag?
          1. Doliva63
            Doliva63 19 August 2020 18: 42
            0
            Quote: Alexander Seklitsky
            Well, I must say that the tricolor dates back to Peter 1, but this red and white rag?

            The history of Russia from Peter 1 went, or what? What do you care about foreign flags? Let there be at least seven-color ones. Here my father hated the "tricolor" - he fought with the Vlasovites, and instilled this hatred in me. Traitors flag. And yes, the commercial flag, and the traders will sell their own mother for profit. Well, what the Russian Federation is actively engaged in. Under the commercial flag laughing
            1. Alexander Seklitsky
              Alexander Seklitsky 19 August 2020 18: 56
              +1
              Quote: Doliva63
              The history of Russia from Peter 1 went, or what? What do you care about foreign flags?

              Have you read my comment carefully? It is foolish to identify the tricolor with the Vlasovites, on the basis that they appropriated it as a symbolism. It appeared much earlier, but when did this lard-meat cutting appear in Belarus? Okay, I’ll answer for you: In 1918, under the conditions of the German occupation, the Belarusian People's Republic was proclaimed, the symbols of which were the coat of arms “Pursuit” and the white-red-white flag. In 1919-1920, the white-red-white flag was used by Belarusian military formations as part of the Lithuanian army.
              During the period of the Nazi occupation (1941-1944) during the Great Patriotic War, the white-red-white flag together with the “Pogonya” coat of arms was allowed for use on July 27, 1942 on the territory of the General District of Belarus of the Reichskommissariat Ostland.

              On September 19, 1991, the Supreme Council of the Republic of Belarus adopted the Law "On the State Flag of the Republic of Belarus", which approved the white-red-white flag.

              So this is the flag given to the country by the invaders and occupiers.
              Now, will you turn your tongue to put these two flags on the same scale?
              1. Doliva63
                Doliva63 19 August 2020 19: 21
                0
                You probably did not understand me. "Tricolor" - the flag of the enemies of my father (and the entire Soviet people) in the Second World War. And I am his son. Will you turn your tongue to teach me anything else?
        2. 26rus
          26rus 19 August 2020 22: 12
          0
          Quote: Doliva63
          Quote: prior
          The Belarusian authorities ought to ban this flag "lard-meat-lard" as a fascist symbolism. After all, it was under it that Belarusian collaborators fought with the USSR together with the Nazis.
          And the young people, they are all so protesting, do not even understand what kind of rag they are holding in their hands.

          Under the "tricolor" Vlasov fought with the USSR - why was it not banned in Minsk? wassat

          Sorry to interfere, but you at least asked what flag the Vlasovites fought under.
          1. Doliva63
            Doliva63 20 August 2020 19: 56
            0
            "As the flag of the Russian Liberation Army, a naval flag with the St. Andrew's Cross was used [54]. The Russian tricolor was also unofficially used by individual collaborators [55], in particular, the use of the tricolor was documented in the footage of the parade of the 1st Guards Brigade ROA in Pskov 22 June 1943 [56] and in the photo chronicle of the Vlasov's formation in Münsingen. "
            Few?
            1. 26rus
              26rus 20 August 2020 21: 12
              0
              In your answer the key word was sounded - "unofficially". And unofficially, you can bring anything - an eagle of the Roman legions, a rainbow, or "Jolly Roger". The official flag of the ROA is Andreyevsky. By the way, does he also cause you a feeling of hatred?
              1. Doliva63
                Doliva63 21 August 2020 20: 24
                0
                Quote: 26rus
                In your answer the key word was sounded - "unofficially". And unofficially, you can bring anything - an eagle of the Roman legions, a rainbow, or "Jolly Roger". The official flag of the ROA is Andreyevsky. By the way, does he also cause you a feeling of hatred?

                I am indifferent to him, as well as to all the remnants of the distant past.
                1. 26rus
                  26rus 21 August 2020 20: 38
                  0
                  Those. for you the history of your own country and its symbols - relics of the distant past? Do I understand correctly that for you the history of Russia began in 1917 and ended in 91?
                  1. Doliva63
                    Doliva63 23 August 2020 19: 46
                    0
                    Quote: 26rus
                    Those. for you the history of your own country and its symbols - relics of the distant past? Do I understand correctly that for you the history of Russia began in 1917 and ended in 91?

                    You see, I was born not in Russia, but in the USSR - this is my Motherland. And I have studied the history of Russia (as well as other republics of the Union), and when I am sober, I can tell a lot of interesting things. But the history of my Motherland began in 1917, yes. And I have no reverence for the attributes of Russian satraps, and why would I? The people with them defended their homeland, or what? Do not make me laugh. He defended the power of some "rulers" from the power of others. The people didn’t care who he was a landowner - a Russian or a Pole, for example? And the Russian tsars, in fact, were not Russian. But all these are relics of the past, why discuss them? It is necessary to study them, if someone does not know. For general development, so to speak drinks
                    1. 26rus
                      26rus 23 August 2020 21: 35
                      0
                      Well, it is clear with you - "Ivan, not remembering kinship." For sim I take my leave.
    4. Sergey39
      Sergey39 19 August 2020 14: 32
      +6
      Quote: Arzt
      Is it wrong? And where is at least one Russian flag here?

      Rallies have long ceased to express the opinion of the people.
    5. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 19 August 2020 14: 39
      +3
      Quote: Arzt
      Is it wrong? And where is at least one Russian flag here?

      There are no flags of the Republic of Belarus, either.
    6. Vasya rock
      Vasya rock 21 August 2020 11: 48
      0
      These are the flags of free people. All who are against the Nazis.
  4. carstorm 11
    carstorm 11 19 August 2020 14: 16
    0
    it's like that. and the change for them is what they want to make is practically the end of a career for most.
  5. rocket757
    rocket757 19 August 2020 14: 16
    +1
    Belarusian officers strongly support Moscow

    I will believe that this is exactly so !!! Combat brotherhood, this is not a snuff of tobacco ... it is not for nothing that the appeal of COMRADES has been preserved in the army !!! because it is HOLY!
    1. Doliva63
      Doliva63 19 August 2020 18: 03
      0
      Quote: rocket757
      Belarusian officers strongly support Moscow

      I will believe that this is exactly so !!! Combat brotherhood, this is not a snuff of tobacco ... it is not for nothing that the appeal of COMRADES has been preserved in the army !!! because it is HOLY!

      In life, alas, anything can happen.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 19 August 2020 18: 17
        0
        Alas, everyone. I know this, but I want to believe that there is something that is extremely difficult to erase.
        1. Doliva63
          Doliva63 19 August 2020 18: 33
          +1
          Quote: rocket757
          Alas, everyone. I know this, but I want to believe that there is something that is extremely difficult to erase.

          My friend, with whom, "a pood of salt" in intelligence, is now preparing the marines in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the other quit during the collapse and is engaged in shooting weddings in Ukraine. Another, when he was the military attaché of Ukraine in Moscow, invited him to visit Kiev - no one canceled the friendship. Only a civil war will tell you exactly who is yours and who is a stranger. But I would not want to.
          1. rocket757
            rocket757 19 August 2020 20: 43
            0
            Even with relatives, there are problems ... much worse can be.
  6. Vladimir_6
    Vladimir_6 19 August 2020 14: 16
    +1
    According to Lukash Dychka, officers of the Belarusian armed forces currently see Russia as an example for inspiration.

    Still would. Russian officers and soldiers, not in exercises, but in real battles in Syria, demonstrated courage, courage and honor to the whole world. A worthy role model and inspiration.
  7. Trapp1st
    Trapp1st 19 August 2020 14: 19
    +1
    Surprisingly, everyone rushed to drown for Old Man.
    1. Sidor Amenpodestovich
      Sidor Amenpodestovich 19 August 2020 14: 22
      +9
      Quote: Trapp1st
      Surprisingly, everyone rushed to drown for Old Man

      They don't drown for him, but for Belarus.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 19 August 2020 14: 41
        +1
        Quote: Sidor Amenpodestovich
        They don't drown for him, but for Belarus.

        Exactly. Old Man did a lot for his country, at the expense of his only partner ... he lost touch with reality, with the people, with the only friendly country, he CANNOT fix anything, NOBODY will believe him! You need to do everything right ...
      2. Doliva63
        Doliva63 19 August 2020 18: 09
        -1
        Quote: Sydor Amenpospestovich
        Quote: Trapp1st
        Surprisingly, everyone rushed to drown for Old Man

        They don't drown for him, but for Belarus.

        And here I am for both. For he saved Belarus from the "Chubais", in contrast to the Russian Federation. Without it, Belarusians will have a complete kapets according to the scenario of the Russian Federation of the 90s. An example of this is Crimea, where everything was bought up by the oligarchs before the referendum. I do not wish this to the Belarusians.
        1. Sidor Amenpodestovich
          Sidor Amenpodestovich 19 August 2020 19: 04
          0
          Quote: Doliva63
          An example of this is Crimea, where everything was bought up by the oligarchs before the referendum.

          What exactly was bought and what is with this property now?
          1. Trapp1st
            Trapp1st 21 August 2020 14: 21
            +1
            What exactly was bought and what is with this property now?
            This year I traveled a lot in Crimea, the locals also say that they have started 90, the redistribution of everything and everyone.
    2. Vasya rock
      Vasya rock 21 August 2020 12: 20
      0
      Let him drown himself
  8. The comment was deleted.
    1. Volodin
      Volodin 19 August 2020 14: 24
      11
      Quote: Hydrograph of the Golden Horn
      Yes, but their 5 special forces brigade is better prepared than ours

      And yours, whose is it, forgive me ...
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 19 August 2020 14: 42
        +2
        Quote: Hydrograph of the Golden Horn
        Yes, but their 5 special forces brigade is better prepared than ours

        Who checked it, where was it proven ???
      2. carstorm 11
        carstorm 11 19 August 2020 14: 46
        +6
        Yes, he writes this garbage in each branch. not worth paying attention.
      3. Paranoid50
        Paranoid50 19 August 2020 16: 00
        -1
        Quote: Volodin
        who's it, I'm sorry ..

        laughing Yes, this is Vasya from Samara - he has his own, alternative world. wassat
      4. Tank hard
        Tank hard 19 August 2020 16: 50
        0
        Quote: Volodin
        And yours, this is whose, sorry

        Probably whose. Special Forces from the Golden Horn Bay. hi
    2. Doliva63
      Doliva63 19 August 2020 18: 24
      +1
      Quote: Hydrography Bay Golden Horn
      Yes, but their 5 special forces brigade is better prepared than ours

      It is difficult to judge without reliable information. But at other times, the Marinogorskaya brSpN was second only to the Neutimenskaya, which was in the GDR, that is, in the Union it was definitely the strongest. And they always tried different experiments on it - such as purely officer companies, for example. But how it is now is unknown. If the brigade retained its potential, then after the mockery of the Russian brigade, it is, of course, stronger, even though it has lost some of its power - the same small-sized nuclear bombs, for example, are clearly not produced in Belarus. But I want to note that it is pointless to compare the army special forces - they are not intended for war with each other. Although, of course, politicians can think of different things laughing drinks
    3. Vasya rock
      Vasya rock 21 August 2020 12: 21
      0
      And what 5 brigades can do against the people.
  9. prior
    prior 19 August 2020 14: 22
    +9
    Well, here's a way out for you.
    Military coup.
    Martial law.
    Removal of Lukashenko.
    Unification with Russia.
    The military is not OMON, they do not work with clubs, they shoot to kill.
    And all protests will be blown away on the same day.
    And as part of the Russian Federation, you can hold new elections.
    The Russian CEC also knows how to count votes.
    1. ohka
      ohka 19 August 2020 15: 16
      +3
      Literally removed from the tongue. Only the sequence is not so straightforward:
      The military remove Lukashenka
      Transition period (1 year)
      Creation of conditions for the emergence of a pro-Russian candidate and his promotion
      Elections (more or less transparent)
      Transfer of power to civilians
    2. Vasya rock
      Vasya rock 21 August 2020 12: 23
      -1
      TE You are in favor of the military shooting at me with live ammunition. Are you an adequate person? Or no brains.
      1. Quadro
        Quadro 21 August 2020 21: 38
        0
        Quote: Vasya Rock
        TE You are in favor of the military shooting at me with live ammunition. Are you an adequate person? Or no brains.

        Fashiks do not mind
  10. bulava
    bulava 19 August 2020 14: 31
    +2
    Dychka for such "deep research of the issue" can be made an honorary professor of the club of British scientists without competition
  11. parusnik
    parusnik 19 August 2020 14: 32
    +6
    It is quite possible that Lukashenko will hand over power, let's call it conditionally, to the National Salvation Committee, which consists of security officials, will adopt the Constitution, hold elections ... and Lukashenko will not have to go to Rostov ...
    1. Pereira
      Pereira 19 August 2020 15: 01
      +4
      And Kolya will finally finish school calmly.
  12. Aitvaras
    Aitvaras 19 August 2020 14: 37
    +1
    Usually, as history shows, the rule of the military did not end well. Pinochet or Franco is now in Chile and in Spain in good memory in the main. not polzyuyutsa. The author of the article is right, the Belarusian army is practically a branch of the Russian army in Belarus. If these soldiers go to seize power in their country, then this is a question for several days, but after saying "A" it will be necessary to say "B". Immediately mass arrests, several ... thousand, several. hundreds to be shot, by the decision of the military tribunal, as enemies of the people and then full integration, as part of Russia, otherwise it makes no sense to start all this.
    1. Vasya rock
      Vasya rock 21 August 2020 12: 26
      0
      Guys. Can I ask one question? Why do you want to grab my land? I'm not going to you with a proposal to give Smolensk. Why did you open your mouth to my Minsk?
  13. VPavel
    VPavel 19 August 2020 14: 42
    +2
    “Ultimately, pro-Russian forces can come to power in Belarus on their own, and no military support from the Kremlin will be required, since the Belarusian armed forces themselves will act as a force resource to ensure this process.”
    How do you want it to be. And then in all the articles one can feel "Chief, the mustache is gone."
  14. Vladimir Mashkov
    Vladimir Mashkov 19 August 2020 14: 59
    0
    An indistinct article: it is not clear what is the opinion of Dychka and what is Polonsky himself. It is also not clear how, where and for whom this opinion is presented. But most importantly, if this opinion is known to Estonian politicians, WHY do they ignore it and support the zmagars?
  15. CommanderDIVA
    CommanderDIVA 19 August 2020 15: 02
    +1
    Maybe Belarusian officers sympathize with ours, but when they were asked about business trips to the North Caucasus, in the event of the unification of our countries, they did not have much enthusiasm, here you need to understand that the Belarusian army is actively cooperating, both with us and with NATO countries under various programs, many Belarusians in uniform were strained by our actions to return Crimea, many of them sympathize with the Ukrainians, I very much doubt the unambiguous commitment of the Belarusian officer corps to Russian ideals, a lot of time has passed since the collapse of the USSR and the Soviet army
    1. Camrad
      Camrad 19 August 2020 15: 25
      +1
      Belarusian officers sympathize with the salaries of Russian officers. And the annexation of Crimea showed how easy it is to move from one army to another.
  16. Pavel57
    Pavel57 19 August 2020 15: 40
    0
    Quote: Charik
    but I think it was not upbringing that played but the $$$ influenced the Ukrainian military students in the USSR


    The Ukrainian military had a mercantile interest in evicting those who remained in the Russian army.
  17. Awaz
    Awaz 19 August 2020 16: 02
    0
    in principle, this analyst is saying the obvious. Unlike Belarus, in Ukraine the riot was initially anti-Russian. For many years, Ukrainian propaganda initially instilled in the people the idea that all the problems of the Ukrainians are only due to the fact that they cannot tear themselves away from Russia, either economically, politically or related. ... In the end it worked. The authorities of the Russian Federation, here they screwed up a lot.
    To his credit, he did not particularly allow the same propaganda as in Ukraine, and the population is now simply tired of the same character at the head. It is clear that someone wants to direct the people's indignation not so much to the Old Man, namely to Russia, but I think that people in Belarus are not completely duped as on the remnants of Ukraine.
    And so, one must understand that Russia and Belarus are like a union state and the Russian part of this union, should exert some influence on what is happening in the Belarusian part.
    And here, somehow, the authorities of the Russian Federation should not do stupid things.
    1. Pereira
      Pereira 19 August 2020 16: 23
      +2
      After 14 years old, Old Man clearly understood that Belarusians at any time could join Russia as Crimea and New Russia and he would be superfluous.
      He really messed up and became finally multi-vector.
      After that, the pro-Russian activists were cleared out, and the pro-NATO activists received indulgences and even friendly pats on the shoulder, as the only force capable of stopping the drift of Belarus towards a single state.
      He really thought that the West would understand him and forgive him, that he is now not the last dictator of Europe, but a respected member.
      EVERYONE shouted "Sigismund, what are you doing (Tse)". You will be used against Russia and thrown into the garbage chute. I didn't believe it, I decided that the most cunning one.
      It is this kidok that we are all seeing now.
  18. Tank hard
    Tank hard 19 August 2020 16: 43
    +1
    Ultimately, pro-Russian forces can come to power in Belarus on their own, and no military support from the Kremlin will be required, since the power resource for ensuring this process will be the Belarusian armed forces themselves

    It would be very good. In general, a single strong state is very good.
  19. _Ugene_
    _Ugene_ 19 August 2020 18: 45
    0
    According to Dychka, the people who came out on the Minsk square with slogans against President Lukashenka, in reality, may be much more pro-Russian than the “father” himself.
    unfortunately this is not so, judging by the numerous videos, the overwhelming majority of the protesters are student-aged youth, and they just sincerely believe that "Belarus is tsezh Europe", it is easiest to attract them to the ranks of the orange revolutionaries
  20. Gennady Fomkin
    Gennady Fomkin 19 August 2020 18: 45
    -1
    Former Deputy Minister of Defense of Germany Willy Wimmer said that Belarus is the last obstacle NATO on the way to Russia, writes "Constantinople".
    According to him, the "fall" of Belarus can be tantamount to a march to the borders of Russia.
    Wimmer stressed that the EU's policy in recent years has been aimed at alienating Belarus from Russia.
    “Through Minsk, Moscow must be met and put on an American leash,” suggests Wimmer.
  21. NordUral
    NordUral 19 August 2020 19: 40
    -1
    Finally, belonging to a great power with a great army also means a lot. Lukasz Dychka cites as an example the behavior of the Ukrainian military who served in Crimea on the eve of his reunification with Russia: most of them chose to immediately switch to Russian military service.

    I agree that it remains only to return the former greatness and brotherhood of our peoples. And paired with greatness - social justice in deeds, not in words.
  22. Alexander F.
    Alexander F. 20 August 2020 02: 28
    0
    Part No. 6 / Rewarding the uninvolved and the punishment of the innocent!
    What do the events taking place in the USA, in Khabarovsk, in Belarus and the success of Olga Buzova, and of other colorful characters like her, have in common?
    If you think that there are none, then in vain.

    Doomsday and the gun on the wall!

    GPS was first invented by the military, and only then was it introduced and used in the civilian sector.
    Well, messengers, things are, exactly the opposite.
    Rewarding the innocent and punishing the innocent has long been the favorite and most successful mechanism for messengers to promote their product.
    "Suppression of rationality, encouraging" eccentricity "at the everyday level, and at the end we get a submissive and controlled flock in any state, regardless of its forms, power and order"
    - The result, the ability, through marketing, to manage the population of any state at its discretion, regardless of the desire or unwillingness of the state itself. The main thing is that there should be SWIFT and "wires" and there should be commercial interest.
    That is, the seemingly harmless marketing at any moment can turn into an unregistered weapon that can bring down an entire state.

    Well, I love Russian.
    And in everyday Russian. A certain commercial organization, proceeding from its commercial interests, using technical means, zombies the society of those countries that it pleases. Subsequently, in the future, and what is not unimportant to the wave "legitimately", it gets the opportunity to influence the internal life of the country, and this circumstance, in turn, creates for it the opportunity, at its discretion, to change the political structure of the country.
    Why does a certain commercial organization establish the rules of life for me?
    Hello, power, and where are you "who, to whom and where is the commander?"
    Hemingway
    "Give the man what he needs and he wants the comforts.
    Provide him with amenities - he will strive for luxury.
    Shower him with luxury - he will start sighing for exquisite.
    Let him get exquisite and he will crave frenzy.
    Give him whatever he wants - he will complain that he was deceived and that he received not at all what he wanted "
    Well, then the tale of the goldfish - glory to Ukraine - long live the State Department!
  23. loha
    loha 20 August 2020 13: 04
    0
    Dychka is disingenuous or does not catch up with the fact that senior officers studied and began serving not in Russia but in the USSR in one country, of which Belarus was a part. This is probably not to guess that the Baltic States were also part of Russia
  24. Varvara Ivanova
    Varvara Ivanova 20 August 2020 17: 19
    +3
    Your beloved Bobruisk. Today.
    Only two days have passed since the triumphant crowd of Maydauns. It was Sunday.
    TODAY IS WEDNESDAY.
    1. The strike was covered with a pelvis.
    Enterprises are working, activists are deprived of passes and cannot get to the facilities. Those who danced them will be dealt with in working order.
    2. The police with the people covered themselves with a basin.
    Here they are to blame. Lay out the addresses and faces of law enforcement officers, tell them about the tribunal and lustration, how can I tell you.
    NOT THE BEST IDEA.
    The siloviki rallied around But father, like partisans.
    3. Media with the people covered with a basin.
    Nobody goes on strike, TV channels work for the state. As I wrote to you earlier, some of the magazines made a mistake and a false start. But little and sad. For example, on ONT, out of hundreds of employees, only 30 were taken away. Their fate is the labor market.
    HOPE TO FIND YOURSELF IN IT.
    Drum on your neck! Those activists who activated but did not quit
    DEPRIVED PASSAGE TO FREEDOM OF SPEECH.
    4. Committee of the sword and shouted for the peaceful transfer of power.
    These are the funniest ones. They sit and laugh themselves from their own discussion of how to overthrow Father
    NOT ATTRACTING THE ATTENTION OF SANITISERS.
    And I myself like it when it's funny.
    5. Well, walking with flags.
    They are still there and probably will be, but most likely not for long and sad.
    WHAT TO WALK?
    Everyone has already understood that Tikhanovskaya is a man of state mind. Tsepkalo crap liquid when on his way in Kiev stood muddy brows,
    Whose Crimea?
    Nuland did not bring cookies, Trump, Merkel kicks, Macron loses his mouth.
    I state:
    BATSKA IS RESISTED.
  25. tank64rus
    tank64rus 21 August 2020 09: 04
    0
    If the state collapses, then the security forces lose everything with it. This is what Soviet officers learned on their own and not only they. Where are the officers of the GDR, the same Poland, etc. The vast majority were either fired or kept in office, but usually demoted. There is no talk about career growth, for the absolute majority it was closed. And as usual, the same opposition to the siloviki sings sweetly when it breaks into power. They promise everything and more. But when they start to threaten the families of security officials, the authorities should take measures so that these people could not even think about it. This is one of the ways power itself survived.
  26. VIP
    VIP 22 August 2020 14: 47
    0
    It's a no brainer that Belarusian officers are much more pro-Russian than Luka.
  27. Barnabas
    Barnabas 23 August 2020 03: 14
    0
    Eh ... the expert seems to be pleasantly saying that he is praising Russia and warns readers against supporting the opposition. And meanwhile, as I understand it, with his article he instills distrust in relations with Russia (by making it so powerful and aggressive that because of some personal connections, incomprehensible belonging to a great country, and because of salaries (which is a controversial issue, nevertheless) all the military of Belarus will immediately go over to the side of Moscow), and with a plus warms up the protesters themselves, allegedly the army will not intervene because it is also beneficial for the army to displace the "dad" (which means you can rage more with impunity).
    In general, I do not trust these "experts", especially if they write from a country that is not very good at Russia. What is Baltic Defense College? Who is cooked there? Who is this expert there, and among whom is he considered an expert?