Military Review

Unleash a civil war in Afghanistan so as not to lose the bridgehead to fight China and Russia

35

When victorious reports appeared in the media last February about the end of the long-standing war in Afghanistan, the withdrawal of American and coalition forces from this long-suffering state, and the “peace treaty” between the US and the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation), experts received messages from great skepticism.


It is clear that the 19-year war in Afghanistan brought the Americans nothing. The troops sat at strong points, refusing to go on patrol. Up to 90% of the country's territory was controlled by various armed groups, mainly the Taliban. The puppet government in Kabul did not control the country.

The US President held a press conference in the White House in his inherent style of a la "we always win":

“We did not have such a moment, the negotiations were very successful. Everyone is tired of the war ... if bad things happen, we will return - so quickly and with such a strength that no one has ever seen. I hope this will not be necessary. Listen, no one should criticize this deal after nineteen years (of war). ”

No less pathetic was the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who was present along with 30 officials from various countries and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg at the signing of the agreement:

“There is a temptation to declare victory, but the victory of the Afghans will be achieved only when they can live in peace and prosper. The victory for the United States will come at a time when the Americans and our allies will no longer have to fear the terrorist threat from Afghanistan. ”


What specifically agreed at the Doha talks


After the words about the greatness of the Americans, about the victory of American diplomacy and the desire to make the lives of Afghans peaceful and joyful, it is worth recalling the agreement itself. Recall simply because over time for many it has for some reason transformed into a completely new one. What they are talking about today is little in line with what the US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban deputy leader Abdullah Gani Baradar signed.

By the way, both signatories are Pashtuns. The American diplomat is from the Pashtun family from Mazar-e-Sharif, and Mullah Abdul Gani Baradar, known to some of our readers as a veteran of the war in Afghanistan, as Mullah Baradar Akhund, is from the Pashtun family from Uruzgan province. Both are Sunnis. So the choice of negotiators is thought out.

So, the United States will reduce the number of its troops in Afghanistan from 135 thousand to 12 8 within 600 days. In addition, the troops of other countries located on the territory of the country will also be reduced in the same proportion (the total number of NATO forces at that time was 16).

In turn, the Taliban

“Will not allow any of its members, other individuals or groups, including Al Qaeda [banned in the Russian Federation], to use the territory of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies.”

Next comes a bright future. NATO troops and allies within 14 months leave Afghanistan without clashes and, accordingly, without losses. Beautiful plan. If you do not delve into the essence. I have repeatedly quoted Comrade Sukhov’s phrase: “The East is a delicate matter.” Agreements for the long term are good, but the tit in the hands there is more relevant than the crane in the sky.

The Government of Afghanistan releases 5000 Taliban (!) From prison as a gesture of goodwill. In response, the Taliban release 1000 of their captives from the Zindans. The remaining prisoners will be released as NATO troops withdraw.

Further. Americans remove their own sanctions from the movement and seek the lifting of international sanctions, which the UN Security Council approved. Moreover, the United States insists in the UN Security Council that the deal, the result of the negotiations in Doha, be approved by the UN and thus gain international status.

And where is the "subtlety of the East"? I think those who know this very East already know the answer to my question. Look what the Taliban and the Americans get as a result of the deal. The Taliban receive specific deadlines for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan, their supporters in a clearly winning option of 5 to 1, the opportunity to strengthen their positions without the intervention of the US military.

And what did the USA and the coalition as a whole get? Another declaration of intent, which was a lot under both President Obama and President Trump. Arrangements that are completely calmly suspended or canceled soon after reaching. So the question of who beat whom in this round will be left open.

The game continues. Washington is trying to implement the Iranian scenario in Afghanistan


Understanding that the diplomats lost their round, Washington came pretty quickly. And the tactics of US actions in the international arena have long been known. Having seized the prey once, this predator will follow the wounded beast until the moment when the forces leave the prey. And then the victim turns into food. Moreover, the “predator” has a lot of “voluntary helpers”.

To defeat the Taliban did not work. To cheat too. Already after the signing of the agreement, it turned out that the American diplomats agreed not so much with the Taliban as with Al-Qaida. Since the Taliban discussed all the US proposals with the leadership of this particular organization. Moreover, evidence has emerged from the Taliban headquarters that these movements link “historical ties ”, which means that they will“ respect ”each other in the future. Al-Qaeda, in turn, praised the Doha talks as a “victory for the common cause."

The first signal that the Americans are moving towards a plan identical to the plans that they implemented in several Islamic states was the statement by CENTCOM (US Army Central Command) commander Kenneth Mackenzie on June 10 in Washington. According to him, it turns out that the 19-year war was not waged in Afghanistan with the Taliban. The USA and the Taliban are friends; they have no complaints against each other.

The US Army in Afghanistan fought with the IG (banned in the Russian Federation) and Al-Qaeda. Like this. And further, the general generally revealed all the cards with his answer to a simple question about the relationship between the Taliban, IG and al-Qaeda. So, the Taliban for the United States are definitely friends and allies! “IG” (ex. In the Russian Federation) are enemies for both the United States and the Taliban. But Al Qaeda is “not a friend and not an enemy” for the Taliban.

With the result that


US presses on the government of Afghanistan. Americans need negotiations to continue. That’s why there was talk of ending the financing of Kabul in case of refusal to negotiate with the Taliban. Therefore, the Americans "do not see" the constant attacks of the Taliban on government troops throughout the country. And by the way, such attacks are recorded daily in decent quantities. In May, for example, 30 attacks per day.

What is the result? First, the Americans are well aware that the government of Afghanistan will not last even a week after the coalition forces leave. Secondly, the Taliban did not and will not give up the idea of ​​seizing power. Thirdly, “IG” and “Al-Qaeda” will not leave the territory of Afghanistan, since at the moment they consider the USA as the main enemy.

And fourthly, the Americans can’t leave the territory of Afghanistan in any way, since this is not just a transshipment point, not just a huge plantation of drugs - this is, most importantly, an excellent springboard for fighting the main opponents: China and Russia.

And the plan itself is simple. Create in Afghanistan several strong groups that need to be pitted against each other. The government and the Taliban are already at war. It remains to be done so that IG and Al Qaeda join in the independent struggle. And armed clan groups, I repeat, today are really strong field commanders.

In short, the long-known principle of "divide and conquer." Unleash a civil war to bleed the enemy. It is this task that has been set for American diplomats, American intelligence, and American business.
Author:
Photos used:
Staff Sgt. Jason Epperson, US Army, defense.gov, commons.wikimedia.org
35 comments
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  1. Lebed
    Lebed 10 July 2020 14: 17 New
    12
    Unleash a civil war in Afghanistan so as not to lose the bridgehead to fight China and Russia

    The true purpose of the star-striped "defenders" is initially understood.
    1. credo
      credo 10 July 2020 14: 59 New
      +1
      Quote: Lebed
      Unleash a civil war in Afghanistan so as not to lose the bridgehead to fight China and Russia

      The true purpose of the star-striped "defenders" is initially understood.

      Of course, not only this, even this goal is one of many and most important.
      For Russia, like the rest of the world, the most interesting example is how the reluctance and inability of movements, clans and other groups of the population of one country to organize themselves and knock out a bunch of hyenas led by the United States from their territory.
      The fact that the United States, in particular, the Anglo-Saxons, in general, will never leave Afghanistan themselves, history knows a lot of examples of a similar nature in other countries.
      But the fact that the Afghans will be at war with the United States for years and among themselves does not color them at all and says only that they can wait another ten or a hundred years for peace on their own land, through their own fault.
      1. cradle
        cradle 12 July 2020 05: 44 New
        0
        Well, then you need to divide the territory between neighbors and put things in order.
    2. Tatyana
      Tatyana 10 July 2020 15: 09 New
      +2
      And fourthly, Americans cannot leave the territory of Afghanistansince it is not easy transshipment point not so easy huge drug plantation - this is, most importantly, an excellent springboard for fighting the main opponents: China and Russia.

      Yes, the Americans will not leave Afghanistan - anyway, anyway, the Americans will remain in Afghanistan! The USA will definitely not have full CAPITULATION in Afghanistan!
      And then, indeed, Afghanistan for the USA is, after all:
      1) a transshipment point, 2) a huge plantation of drugs, and 3) that, most importantly, an excellent springboard for fighting the main opponents: China and Russia.

      So to leave Afghanistan is for the USA the same as breaking all your precious eggs laid by Washington in one basket at a time.
      1. tihonmarine
        tihonmarine 10 July 2020 16: 15 New
        +1
        Quote: Tatiana
        So to leave Afghanistan is for the USA the same as breaking all your precious eggs laid by Washington in one basket at a time.

        Not for that, they entered to go out. Or maybe the naive think that in Afghanistan someone needs "American democracy."
      2. Thunderbolt
        Thunderbolt 10 July 2020 18: 11 New
        +1
        Quote: Tatiana
        Yes, the Americans will not leave Afghanistan - anyway, anyway, the Americans will remain in Afghanistan! The USA will definitely not have full CAPITULATION in Afghanistan!

        They settled there quite well (judging by the losses) and are not going to leave such a super-glade. You say something about a surrender, but the power of the Western bloc is not aimed at crushing something .... but a purely military demonstration of the presence of a predatory Chinese the bloc of states did not burst into this supernodal point.
        Remember how the Afghan war began? Soviet intelligence felt "bad" from the Chinese General Staff. I had to enter and go caravans through Pakistan. Only a few years later, the USA entered the conflict with their supplies. The air defense was American, the mines were plastic, the latest were Italy, but the gunners, cartridges, training camps-- --This is all our friend China suited. Urya-patriots do not see this expansive tread of the People's Republic of China at point blank range. He Solovuvshka-Povemetalin-Italian pours in the ears a canoe about the USA, and the PRC supposedly friend, comrade, and brother. In Afghanistan, the Chinese showed themselves well .In Pakistan’s training camps, the proportion of Chinese officers was higher than NATO instructors. And the supply of ammunition — it was sacred, with gold through a Hong Kong bank. It’s good that the PLA is now our strategic allies. And I’ll say that it’s bad ... it's bad to stay in captivity of propaganda.
        1. Tatyana
          Tatyana 10 July 2020 18: 23 New
          -1
          Quote: Thunderbolt
          The air defense facilities were American, the latest plastic mines were Italy, but the rifleman, cartridges, training camps — all this our China friend arranged.

          Where and when did you get this information? Why, for example, in 1991-1995 did Pavel Grachev and the entire officer Soviet and Russian corps keep silent about this?
          About China, for example, I hear from you for the first time.

          And what do you yourself offer now? From your point of view, what does the USSR / Russia decision on Afghanistan look like?
          1. Thunderbolt
            Thunderbolt 10 July 2020 20: 24 New
            +1
            Quote: Tatiana
            Where and when did you get this information?

            You think our boys were wet with trophies, NO, Tatyana, the PRC ammunition was coolly supplied with ammunition, and Italy was very cool with NATO sorons, having begun to mine the puti and moves with mines insensitive to this song
            1. Thunderbolt
              Thunderbolt 10 July 2020 20: 43 New
              +1
              But this is not enough, realizing the success, such mines began to be produced in the X country, China went to their industrial level and only letting us all lines ..... still does not guarantee that the PLA abandoned its plans. And he has very mastabal plans. The PLA engineering team threw a bridge over the Amur River, all standards were met. Through this bridge, the Chinese threw a company and it went to the Far East beach. Everyone is happy, the friendship of peoples. When I studied and wrote about the Russian army, the Smart Uncle corrected me and since then I never consider the PLA as an ally against NATO .. ​​They’re more likely to leave our fairways with mines than they will go one on one with us ..
              1. georgiigennadievitch
                georgiigennadievitch 13 July 2020 12: 16 New
                0
                Large states, for example the USA, Russia, China, do not have and cannot have any eternal loyal allies. Why? Because they compete for resources and influence. Now the Chinese are our fellow travelers. But this is not the merit of our politicians, but a flaw they don’t succeed in putting pressure on Russia and China, but by their actions they contribute to rapprochement and, above all, in the confrontation of the USA. But if we think not about immediate goals, but about a long term, then in Eurasia we need to get away from cooperation on West-East lines, where we are a supplier of resources for both Europe and China and a transit territory for moving their goods to the north-south direction. And here our country has prospects. Interaction with India and Iran, as well as gaining Indonesia’s turnover seems very interesting, especially since these countries are interested in it. Starting from this perspective, appropriate logistics are needed. Even now, without delaying the matter, it’s possible through Azerbaijan-Ira and to establish a railway line to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, which will provide access to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. A relatively small amount will be required to modernize the port and existing railways. In the future, there is the prospect of creating a deep-sea sea channel based on the existing in Iran sea routes with access to the Caspian. This is what you need to do, and not join the Chinese project "One belt, one way.
          2. Vicontas
            Vicontas 10 July 2020 20: 38 New
            +1
            Yes elementary Mrs. Watson! As folklore says - "The enemy of my enemy is my friend!" So, we need to put this thesis at the forefront - if the United States begins to harm from the territory of Afghanistan - to support eventually groups in which drooling on Americans! By supplying them through Tajikistan. It is possible to plow China as well - our narrow-film brothers, by reason, now do not fight with America in the gums! And they are very afraid that she wants to fight with them!
            1. Thunderbolt
              Thunderbolt 10 July 2020 20: 46 New
              +1
              Quote: Vicontas
              Yes elementary Mrs. Watson! As folklore says - "The enemy of my enemy is my friend!" So, we need to put this thesis at the forefront

              The thesis is excellent, but it didn’t work on June 22
        2. Andrey Krasnoyarsky
          Andrey Krasnoyarsky 17 July 2020 12: 27 New
          0
          You forgot to mention something: at the end of the 70s, the USSR had nowhere worse than relations with China. Then for us this country was an even bigger enemy than the United States. Accordingly, China helped the enemies of the Soviet Union. Indeed, dushmans received help not only from the West, but also from China. Now the situation is completely different, the PRC and the Russian Federation are not enemies, moreover, they act together on many issues in the international arena.
  2. alone
    alone 10 July 2020 14: 18 New
    +4
    And what to unleash then? The civil war has been going on there since the 70s and it did not stop. There were simply periods of sluggish and intense.
  3. Prisoner
    Prisoner 10 July 2020 14: 30 New
    0
    And what is there to untie? They are already in a state of permanent civil war of everyone with everyone. Only pins what kind of self-interest? If they will fuss a lot, they will snap off from all sides. As indeed happens from time to time.
  4. Alexga
    Alexga 10 July 2020 14: 54 New
    -2
    When the Americans leave, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan will have to tight, the Taliban will climb. And one 201 division is not enough to maintain order. There will be a headache for Russia.
  5. Normal ok
    Normal ok 10 July 2020 14: 57 New
    -2
    Damn 12000 l / s - it's about nothing.
  6. Strashila
    Strashila 10 July 2020 15: 08 New
    -1
    Peace in Afghanistan could be different, do not betray President Najibulu in 1992 to Gorbachev.
    1. Sergey Sfiedu
      Sergey Sfiedu 10 July 2020 22: 07 New
      0
      By definition, there would have been nothing else in Afghanistan anyway. What, were we supposed to fight for Nabjib in the 21st century? What was Najib the president of? Without our soldiers, he was an absolute zero. To ruin the lives of our guys for the sake of some local prince who does not have the slightest support from the population?
      1. Strashila
        Strashila 11 July 2020 07: 08 New
        0
        Without our soldiers, Najibul managed for more than 2 years. Yes, our advisers were, where without them, they were recalled, he held on. But when it was refused to supply fuel for tanks and other equipment, that was all.
  7. SARANCHA1976
    SARANCHA1976 10 July 2020 15: 11 New
    0
    Guys, when I accidentally went deep into all this mujin with Afghanistan and then became interested in reading more from the April Revolution of Parcham and the Hulk and today I am quietly ufuyuyu from all statements. I’m lazy to write for a long time, read to whom it is interesting it’s just a bomb. don't believe a penny
  8. Petrik66
    Petrik66 10 July 2020 15: 24 New
    +1
    Americans can sit on bases for a long time, everyone benefits: money from the budget is being sawn? - How else, are the Taliban having fun? - judging by the numbers of attacks - yes. Is drug being loaded through Kosovo? - Shock. Alkaida and a hedgehog with them resting there after receiving cages in Syria? - definitely. So why change something? And, if you add a little moment to this - Well, it hurts to make easy and large hemorrhage from this Babyland to the Chinese, Russians, Pashtuns and Indians, so what more could you want? This reminds us of how in the USSR everyone dreamed that all the Hydromassons would leave for ... well, let's say - for their historical homeland. Well, they took it and left, and what, who got better ?! They don’t drink tap water, but then who does it sometimes? Anyway, our children do not quite understand who these dangerous Jews are? And how they from Israel can spoil us like that (judging by the comments of individual diehard fighters from the 55+ category). our children did not see these Jews alive. So are the Americans in Afghanistan. Well, they will leave, the general batch will immediately begin: the Pashtuns knead the Tajiks, the Uzbeks knead the Pashtuns and all knead the Khazrais. Brothers in faith will run with cartoons (made in USA) to their relatives over the river and rushed. Ours intervene in the war room and SU 25 begins to precisely level exactly those places that the last time the Soviet bomb was seen 31 years ago. It’s only now that documentary films are shown on TV about how the old dushmans, now the mujahideen, remembering tears on their bearded faces, remember how well they fought with the shuravi, and those, i.e. Russians are real warriors, and Americans are just cowardly, but Russians are another matter. It seems to me that when drug lords fly logistics for the delivery of laughing substances to Europe, they will be very upset and will begin to look for marketing options. Our distant brothers from Asia, those same Ravshans and Maksuds, will pick up all sorts of crap in their unenlightened Komsomol heads and will run around with green flags and spoil our blood already. Let the Americans stay and everything will be relatively calm.
  9. L-39NG
    L-39NG 10 July 2020 15: 33 New
    0
    In Afghanistan, there is a constant “civil” war, inter-tribal, inter-neighborly, and even inter-family. Not the Americans or NATO got there, as the first, but they have, so far, succeed.
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 10 July 2020 16: 11 New
      0
      Quote: L-39NG
      Not the Americans or NATO got there, as the first, but they have, so far, succeed.

      I would like to know what happens?
  10. tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 10 July 2020 16: 10 New
    0
    And the plan itself is simple. Create in Afghanistan several strong groups that need to be pitted against each other.
    “Divide and conquer!”, Nothing new in the actions of the Americans has changed. The war for US interests is someone else's blood.
  11. Virus-free crown
    Virus-free crown 10 July 2020 16: 59 New
    +1
    Americans will not leave Afghanistan anywhere - there it is !!! they control the "loot" on drugs, that it’s easier to strangle themselves - than they will give someone else a thread bully
  12. Smirnoff
    Smirnoff 10 July 2020 17: 14 New
    +6
    Plantations also moved closer to us.
  13. Sergey Sfiedu
    Sergey Sfiedu 10 July 2020 22: 12 New
    +1
    I read the comments - the "great and terrible" Yankees rule the world! But along the way - in fact, Trump (namely, Trump) would have gladly left Afghanistan - Trump is not interested in all these international ambitions, he has no connected international politics at all, some kind of reflex movements when he has to be distracted from intra-American concerns.
  14. Maki maki
    Maki maki 11 July 2020 08: 23 New
    +8
    I wonder what they have more from sitting in Afghanistan - profit or crap?
    1. Soko
      Soko 11 July 2020 09: 53 New
      +5
      Once they sit and do not crawl out, it means profit.
  15. Gloomy skeptic
    Gloomy skeptic 13 July 2020 15: 08 New
    +1
    As long as opium and its derivatives are consumed on the planet, NOBODY and ANYWHERE WILL LEAVE FROM Afghanistan, because it is only MOST to control this super-profitable business, you will not trust this to even very trusted local residents.
  16. Gloomy skeptic
    Gloomy skeptic 13 July 2020 15: 16 New
    -3
    Quote: georgiigennadievitch
    Now the Chinese are our fellow travelers. But this is not the merit of our politicians, but a flaw in the US elite.

    Re really? More than half of the Chinese high-tech military equipment produced in Russia and in the event of a conflict between the Russians and the Chinese ALL this equipment will not fight on the side of China, from the word AT ALL. So saturation of the Chinese army is not only profit and congestion of the Russian military-industrial complex, but also a very compelling argument for the so-called alliance. Neither Saddam Hussein nor Muammar Gaddafi understood this MAIN fact when acquiring someone else’s technological weapons, and where are they and their countries now ???
  17. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 13 July 2020 15: 25 New
    0
    Americans are gaining. There is nothing to rob in Afghanistan for a long time. It would be very tasty to set up mining there, but this is unrealistic even for Pashtuns (the chance was irreversibly missed with the departure of the USSR. Only the USSR could develop Afghanistan as a state), not like for foreign companies.
    Of all the foreigners, only the British managed to gain a foothold there, and only on poppy fields. The Americans, of course, powerfully increased poppy crops, but how? They provided their infrastructure, in the form of NATO military aircraft, for the massive transfer of dope to Europe and partly America. If they leave, their planes will fly away too, and with that the production of dope will fall, because the traditional channels of its delivery to Europe are already extremely loaded, but where can I get new ones? On the old yeast ... In addition, the proportion of herbal drugs is steadily falling - it is easier and cheaper to make synthetics. As a matter of fact, Afghanistan is simply a trademark here - they say there are evil Taliban (who were forced to start trading in it in order to get financing for the purchase of weapons, and they are ardent opponents of drugs) release this rampart of drugs, and not laboratories owned by the CIA. ..
    In general, everything depends on the solvency of the United States. How much more can Americans tolerate a huge hole in their budget under current conditions? All this can stop at any moment. But maybe not, everything will depend on how things are going in the USA. There is no clarity yet.
  18. Pavel57
    Pavel57 15 July 2020 09: 29 New
    0
    Afghanistan ......
    Is a transshipment point,
    - a huge plantation of drugs,
    - This is an excellent springboard for fighting the main opponents: China and Russia.

    Plantation is the most important, and the rest is for voters.
  19. Koval Sergey
    Koval Sergey 16 July 2020 18: 27 New
    10
    Yankees use the ancient Roman formula - "Divide and conquer"