Military Review

Confrontation of the USA and China in Europe

26

When talking about the growing confrontation between the United States and China, they usually mean the so-called trade wars. It is also well known about the military-political confrontation between China and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. Much less is known about the rivalry of the two powers in Europe - a region that is under the direct military-political and economic influence of the United States and at the same time represents a zone of Russia's most important economic interests.


China does not lag behind its counterparts in the "strategic triangle" of the USA - China - Russia. Starting in 2013, the implementation of the “Belt and Way”, its main political and economic initiative of our time, which is embodied in the process of creating and modernizing a diverse economic infrastructure on the land routes of the Eurasian Silk Road Economic Belt and the trans-ocean routes of the Sea Silk Road 21 century ”, as well as, of course, in active logistics on these routes, China has persistently affirmed not only in Africa and South America, where there is still room for economic activity for everyone, but also in the civilizational“ heart ”of the Western world - in Europe .

Chinese economic activity on the European continent is described, in particular, in the article by RUDN University professor A. V. Tsvyk “One Belt, One Way”: A View from Europe ”in the journal“ Modern Europe ”(2019, No. 1, pp. 104-112 ) As reported in this article, the essence of the implementation of the Chinese “Belt and Way” initiative in Europe lies mainly in the cooperation of the Chinese with the EU member states on the implementation of projects for the development of land (primarily railway) and port infrastructure of the Old World. In 2015, an increase in the interest of Europeans in participating in the Chinese Belt and Way initiative was facilitated by the entry of a number of EU countries into the cofounders of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is one of the financial instruments for implementing Belt and Way. Thus, Germany became the fourth largest investor after China, India and Russia, the shareholder of this bank.

Another platform for China’s participation in the economic life of Europe is the “16 + 1 format”, in which China primarily carries out trade, economic and investment cooperation, as well as cooperation in the field of culture, tourism, science and education with 16 countries of Central and Eastern Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Northern Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia. Russia, as a “strategic partner” of China, never openly protests and does not resent, even if China’s activity in Europe in one way or another interferes with its own interests in the European direction. But the United States, which is firmly upholding its traditional global leadership in the face of growing China, does not stand on ceremony in words and deeds and directly speak about what China is preventing them from, in this case on the European continent.

Another confirmation of this was the speech on June 3, 2020 of the former adviser to the President of the United States on national security (20.01.2009 - 08.10.2010), full (four-star) US Marine Corps retired James Logan Jones (James Jones) at a meeting of the "Committee for Responding to Current threats from communist China. ”

The “Actual Threat Response Committee” is a nonprofit non-governmental organization within which right-wing American politicians develop foreign policy recommendations for the US Presidential Administration. The "Committee" was created on December 12, 1950 in Washington, and at that time its main task was to "reveal the aggressive plans of the USSR." In 1976, the “Committee” was reorganized; in 2004, it was reorganized again to meet the challenges of combating international terrorism. On March 25, 2019, it was reorganized again, its main task now is to “propagandize and clarify information on the conventional and unconventional threats posed by the People’s Republic of China”. The Chairman of the Committee is Brian Kennedy.

Jones’s speech at the meeting of the aforementioned “Committee” was described on June 6, 2020 in a material on the Da Jiyuan website (translated: “The Great Era”). This large-scale Chinese-language website, which is active on the Web, specializes in foreign policy materials, often directed against The CPC and the PRC, the website is located in Washington, DC. So, in his speech, Jones talked about “erosion tactics,” which, he said, communist China gradually adheres to in relation to the West: stage one is “penetration,” stage two is “expansion influence, ”the third stage is“ an attempt to take Western society under control. ”At the same time, Jones emphasized the need for more active actual US participation in global affairs, because, in his words,“ virtual presence is essentially non-participation. ”In this regard, he praised the US "plan" to promote the development of the Three Seas Initiative as a tool to oust the Chinese initiative from Europe "Belt and Path."

The “Three Seas Initiative” (ITM), also known as the “Baltic-Adriato-Black Sea Initiative” (BACHI), is a development of the Polish foreign policy concept of the “Three Seaside” (“Seaside”, “Three Seaside”), which, in turn, goes back to the developed Pilsudski after the First World War, the concept of "Intermarium", which involved the creation of a confederation of Eastern and Central European states.

Modern ITM is an informal association of 12 countries of Central and Eastern Europe: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, which emerged in 2016 on the initiative of Poland and Croatia and acting as political and economic platform for the development of regional projects in the field of infrastructure, energy and digital interaction. At the Munich Security Conference on February 14-16, 2020, US Secretary of State Pompeo announced (and Jones also drew attention to this in his speech) that the United States intends to finance projects to increase the energy independence of ITM member countries. To this end, the United States plans to send $ 1 billion to the ITM investment fund through the International Development Finance Corporation, the US government structure created in 2019, which finances various projects in emerging markets.

It is noteworthy that with their “yard of bucks” the US “shoots with a doublet” at the energy independence of the ITM member countries: on Russian energy supplies to Europe and on the Chinese initiative “Belt and Way” in Europe, because there is no energy component in it principle.

Judge for yourself. As follows from the mentioned article by Tsvyka, the interaction of China in this case with the ITM member countries is as follows.

Austria: membership in AIIB; participation in land infrastructure development projects.

Bulgaria: “16 + 1 format”; participation in port infrastructure development projects.

Hungary: Memorandum of Understanding with China on the Belt and Path Initiative; membership in AIIB; “16 + 1 format”; participation in land infrastructure development projects.

Latvia and Lithuania: “16 + 1 format”; participation in land infrastructure development projects; participation in port infrastructure development projects.

Poland: Memorandum of Understanding with China on the Belt and Path Initiative; membership in AIIB; “16 + 1 format”; participation in land infrastructure development projects; participation in port infrastructure development projects.

Romania: membership in AIIB; “16 + 1 format”; participation in land infrastructure development projects; participation in port infrastructure development projects.

Slovakia: Memorandum of Understanding with China on the Belt and Path Initiative; “16 + 1 format.”

Slovenia: “16 + 1 format”; participation in land infrastructure development projects; participation in port infrastructure development projects.

Croatia: Memorandum of Understanding with China on the Belt and Path Initiative; “16 + 1 format”; participation in land infrastructure development projects; participation in port infrastructure development projects.

Czech Republic: Memorandum of Understanding with China on the Belt and Way Initiative; “16 + 1 format”; participation in land infrastructure development projects.

Estonia: “16 + 1 format”; participation in land infrastructure development projects; participation in port infrastructure development projects.

It is difficult, of course, to unambiguously evaluate the statement of the former Secretary of the US President for National Security, Jones, that the United States intends to oust the Chinese Belt and Way initiative from Europe with the help of the home-grown Polish Three Seas Initiative. For the states of the Three Seas, traditionally playing the role of a “buffer” between Russia and the Western Heartland, are likely to follow the path of the “affectionate calf sucking two queens”, that is, they will not choose either with China along the Belt and the Way, or for the next American billion, and they will try to receive both Chinese investments in infrastructure projects and American money for “energy independence”.

In other words, the United States is unlikely to succeed in ousting China from Europe by feeding its Eastern and Central European “customers”. With a greater degree of probability, the process will proceed as Jones described it: phased and inexorable, “erosive” consolidation of China here and there in Europe with difficultly predicted consequences. After all, it is one thing - hundreds of thousands of Asian-African refugees, whom Europe is having difficulty, but "digesting" with its institutional order. And a completely different matter - the creeping, “erosive”, but gradually all-encompassing Chinese presence, no less, if not more, than the European Union, institutionalized by the Chinese state. For what are the strategic plans of the Central Military Council of the CPC, what is it, the Central Military Council of the PRC, and others with it the governing bodies of the Central Committee of the CPC, is good news.
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  1. parusnik
    parusnik 14 June 2020 19: 06 New
    +2
    In other words, the United States is unlikely to succeed in ousting China from Europe by feeding its Eastern and Central European “customers”.
    .... And the forces are not the same ....
    1. Mitroha
      Mitroha 14 June 2020 19: 58 New
      -1
      China in Europe at the moment is represented exclusively in the form of individual European politicians who, for one reason or another, favor Chinese projects. This is an extremely unstable position, because there are very few Chinese in the European population, you can’t rely on the Diaspora, and politicians and officials are short-lived and volatile. The United States "educated and raised" there is not one generation of leaders. Therefore, it is much easier to resist them than to interfere with the Chinese. The position of Russia in this is not clear. For none of these options is beneficial to us. And neither the lobby in Europe, nor finance, which would not interest. And the task of the confrontation, it seems to me, lies with the special services. Interfere and bleed, so to speak.
      1. parusnik
        parusnik 14 June 2020 20: 34 New
        +5
        China is just like rust, from the beginning a small speck, and then further, further ..
        1. Lexus
          Lexus 15 June 2020 01: 42 New
          +4
          China is just like rust, from the beginning a small speck, and then further, further ..

          Absolutely right. There is no need to go far - Siberia, the Russian Far East and not only - alas, confirmation of this. Until they devour everything and drink, they will not calm down. Searing curtsy to them with "ice cream": territorial concessions, pipes, "forest trains" and so on, are alarming. Will certainly come around.
          1. Reptiloid
            Reptiloid 15 June 2020 09: 27 New
            +2
            ...... you don’t need to go far ----- Siberia, the Russian Far East ........

            Recall the tales of our peoples in Siberia and the Far East: Nanaians, Nivkhs, Ude, Beldy, Orochi, Ulchi, and others! There it runs like a red thread, like the Nikans, i.e. the Chinese, from ancient times, dreamed of settling these lands, enslaved people economically, using their peacefulness and illiteracy, brought their puppets from the locals into power, and sometimes even exterminated entire clans with fire and sword! Some horses are worth it! After all, these small nations did not yet have horses at all, as did the New World Indians! They were horrified by their sight that
            Incidentally, Robert Sheckley in the novel "Immortal Corporation" reacted very well to Oroch.
  2. Same lech
    Same lech 14 June 2020 19: 08 New
    +1
    The article did not disclose Russia's place in the struggle for Europe between China and the United States. what
    1. Sergey39
      Sergey39 14 June 2020 20: 09 New
      +3
      Russia's place is to sit and watch, from time to time helping one or the other, so that no one gets an advantage.
  3. Grandfather
    Grandfather 14 June 2020 19: 09 New
    -4
    ousting China from Europe, feeding its Eastern and Central European "customers", the United States is unlikely to succeed. With a greater degree of probability, the process will proceed as Jones described it: phased and inexorable, “erosive” consolidation of China here and there in Europe with difficultly predicted consequences.
    This is an obvious tactic ... in America, the diaspora is strong, our Far East occupation is quiet, Africa, LA, BV, too ... tear the balls, Politicians!
    1. carstorm 11
      carstorm 11 14 June 2020 23: 41 New
      0
      occupation by whom goes to the Far East?))) residents of the former USSR?) otherwise I meet the Chinese every 20 times less often than Uzbeks for example)
  4. pytar
    pytar 14 June 2020 19: 44 New
    +2
    The EU should be very careful in contacts with China. It’s time for the Europeans to return the plants at home.
    1. parusnik
      parusnik 14 June 2020 19: 52 New
      +5
      Do not resist Boyan .... Do you know why? The Chinese have no migrants .... And you yourself, look for work in Europe ... No offense ...
      1. pytar
        pytar 15 June 2020 12: 26 New
        +1
        Thanks to the low level of labor, China has become a profitable place for investment. Saying that the EU should change its whole approach, I mean that in the Union there are countries with inexpensive / yet / labor. And instead of investments, factories, factories going to China, it is better to equip them within the EU, while closing the loopholes in the legislation that allow masking goods manufactured in China as European ones.
        You are right, many Eastern Europeans work in other EU countries. But this is a common labor market! Every year, our workers transfer ~ 1 billion euros in the country! In Russia, the situation is different. Russia is a donor. Migrants take out trillions of rubles. The pandemic only temporarily set limits.
        China is a purely economic threat to the EU. In the future, it poses a geopolitically much more threat to the Russian Federation. Blind faith in defending a thermonuclear shield, deceiving ... The Chinese are successfully implementing creeping invasion strategies.
        By the way, there are also migrants to China, but against the background of the country's 1,3 billion people, they are not a factor. In Europe, in the Russian Federation and even in the world, the white race is undergoing a demographic crisis. An empty place is not worth it for a long time ...
    2. Selevc
      Selevc 15 June 2020 07: 35 New
      0
      The EU should be very careful in contacts with China. It’s time for the Europeans to return the plants at home.
      Nobody will return anything ... Factories with impoverished labor are very profitable for large European capital ... In China, labor costs ten times cheaper than in Europe ... Moreover, no labor riots in Europe, no environmental problems ...
      The hinterland of China is ready to supply cheap labor, European business will climb into any loop for the sake of additional savings and cheapening the cost of production ...

      But there is one problem - lately countries have appeared on the labor market that are ready to provide massively even cheaper labor than China - for example, India and Indonesia ... Therefore, already now there are European firms reoriented to these countries. And China has to make more and more efforts year after year to keep investors at home ...
      1. pmkemcity
        pmkemcity 15 June 2020 11: 00 New
        +1
        Quote: Selevc
        European business will climb into any loop for the sake of additional savings and cheapening the cost of production ...

        Something our impoverished workforce in the global market is not in demand. Here other laws work.
        1. Selevc
          Selevc 15 June 2020 19: 00 New
          0
          Quote: pmkemcity
          Something our impoverished workforce in the global market is not in demand. Here other laws work.
          Will you work for 100 ye per month ??? And the Chinese will be ... And the Indians will be over 50 per month, I think that there are those who want to work for 30 ...
          1. pmkemcity
            pmkemcity 16 June 2020 05: 15 New
            +1
            Quote: Selevc
            Will you work for 100 ye per month ???

            Maybe I will surprise you, but many work for a lower salary. The Chinese have not been working for a long time for $ 100, so their trace has gone cold. In India, I was in person. Indeed, they work for a penny in our understanding, but there EUROPEAN (!), Without inquiries, of course, you can live for $ 40 a month.
          2. Mordvin 3
            Mordvin 3 16 June 2020 05: 57 New
            +1
            Quote: Selevc
            Will you work for 100 ye per month ???

            And you will not ???
      2. pytar
        pytar 15 June 2020 12: 48 New
        0
        Nobody will return anything ... Factories with impoverished labor are very profitable for large European capital ...

        We can only speculate what will happen. And this is without taking into account the upcoming geoclimatic cataclysms. Of course, large European capital seeks profit, but there is a snag! Strengthening an economic competitor, at one point, profits can suddenly turn into a decline ... So, perhaps healthy pragmatism will take up.
        In China, labor costs tens of times cheaper than in Europe ... Moreover, there are no working riots in Europe, no environmental problems ...

        In China, the cost of labor is increasing year by year. You continue to talk about India, Indonesia / Vietnamese and many others. other /. And so you are right, a totalitarian regime is preferable for investors. Ecology in China is very bad! The authorities are aware of the problem and they already have a strategy. They plan to inject huge investments in improving the environment, which will accordingly reduce the competitiveness of the Chinese economy.
        1. Selevc
          Selevc 15 June 2020 19: 02 New
          +1
          Quote: pytar
          And so you are right, a totalitarian regime is preferable for investors.

          But for business, it’s all the same a totalitarian regime or not - in Saudi Arabia feudalism in general - but they are ready to pay specialists a lot ... And so the democrats of the whole planet work for them - they just don’t like to advertise it ...
  5. knn54
    knn54 14 June 2020 19: 59 New
    +1
    Format "17 + 1" - Greece joined.
  6. rocket757
    rocket757 14 June 2020 20: 09 New
    +1
    In the old world and there, beyond the curse, now a hefty mess with !!!
    Who and in what form will get out of this all is not at all clear ..... the general impression is that in some places the old will be gone!
    And politicians will play their INTERESNY games !!! Feast during the plague, yes s.
  7. FIR FIR
    FIR FIR 14 June 2020 20: 52 New
    +3
    China in Europe at the moment is represented exclusively in the form of individual European politicians

    If so, European parliamentarians and American vultures would not be so nervous.
    And in Europe, China so "rattled" with its purchases of everything that is possible. From the Berlin quarters to hundreds of high-tech enterprises in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy and others. Merkel realized herself and blocked a couple of already signed deals. China made a political and economic breakthrough in Italy and Hungary. Europeans came to their senses and were horrified at how much China had already bought in Europe. And now it is tougher on such deals. However, business is business. Chinese businessmen are able to pose the question in such a way that it is difficult to say no.
    The United States has overslept Africa and Asia, and is rapidly losing ground in Latin America and Europe.
    Americans understand everything, but it’s harder and harder to resist the world's first economy.
  8. CommanderDIVA
    CommanderDIVA 14 June 2020 20: 56 New
    -1
    China will crush under itself both the European Union and the world hegemon, Africa and South America gradually, over 100 years, the only insurance against the Chinese is our nuclear umbrella and weapons systems on different principles of operation, so that China will be in the role of catching up, by the way, our help to the Chinese in construction sprn system fits into this version, it is unlikely that it will be able to be used against our nuclear weapons
  9. Guazdilla
    Guazdilla 15 June 2020 01: 22 New
    +2
    Alexander Viktorovich, have you been out of the house for a long time?

    China does not lag behind its counterparts in the "strategic triangle" of the USA - China - Russia. Starting in 2013 ....


    A strategic triangle of what and what does Russia have to do with it?
    And then, as they say, "without me, I got married." And where, in fact, is Europe itself and hto such Russia, surrounded by these three colossi.
    (China, USA and EU)
    And further in the text
    Russia, as a “strategic partner” of China, never openly objects and does not resent, even if China’s activity in Europe in one way or another interferes with its own interests in the European direction.

    Until recently, Russia had strategic partners with Russia. Yesterday, the truth Khan ordered the ambassadors not to call. And China, my dear, strategic partner?))). China, he is a strategic sponsor. He’ll go to poison the dog, he will go there, Schaub’s hydrocarbons didn’t catastrophic environmental friendliness. Well here, the truth is there are options. Syria and Libya, you see, he is not an order. Although one officially contracted to go to the defenders, the other did not officially.
    Now on the topic of your article. Ah, well, that's all. Because the article itself is definitely not about anything. Gospasas will not be pleased to report. And to fuss around, yes, it's not interesting.
  10. NF68
    NF68 16 June 2020 16: 39 New
    -1
    Chineses are a very persistent people. If they cling to something with both hands, they will not be able to just like that.
  11. Kostadinov
    Kostadinov 17 June 2020 09: 51 New
    0
    Quote: pytar
    Thanks to the low level of labor, China has become a profitable place for investment.

    This is the tale of European nations. In industry, labor costs are a small fraction (10-15% on average). China has cheaper production in all its components because there is no desire for private capital to maximize profit.
    For the same reason, Indian capitalism will not be able to compete China despite the fact that labor in India is cheaper.
    The same thing was in the past. To protect its maximum nailed, European big capital created the Zakritis Common market where it did not allow competition from the East. and now it will be so - there will be no free trade neither in the USA nor in the EU. Close everything with administrative measures and trade wars.