Military Review

The forecast for the fall of the Russian economy in 2020 is presented.

89
The forecast for the fall of the Russian economy in 2020 is presented.

The figures with forecasts for changes in the Russian economy that will occur in 2020 are announced. In connection with the events associated with the pandemic, the decline is recorded in almost all sectors, including light and heavy industries, the service sector, and the fuel and energy market.


Specialists from the World Bank presented their forecast for the Russian economy in a report. The forecast says that by the end of 2020, the country's economy expects a downturn of about 6 percent.

It is worth noting that in the pre-crisis period, the same World Bank predicted a 1,6% increase in the Russian economy. In other words, the experts of this organization are trying to keep their "nose in the wind." They also offer forecasts in which, by and large, you can write any numbers - anyway, no one will bear any responsibility for such forecasts, even if they turn out to be far from reality.

In the same report, the World Bank claims that the Russian economy will return to growth as early as next year. Forecasters claim that this growth will be 2,7%.

You can compare these data with data from domestic forecasters. Thus, the Ministry of Economic Development expects the economy to fall by 5 percent in 2020 and rise by 2,8% in 2021. As can be seen, the forecasts are very similar.

The whole problem is that no one in 2019 or at the beginning of 2020 predicted either a sharp drop in oil prices or other economic “subsidence”. Hence the question of the real significance of all these “expert assessments” and forecasts for the sustainable operation of the “national economy”. True, the word "popular" in recent decades, unfortunately, looks superfluous ...
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  1. Pessimist22
    Pessimist22 9 June 2020 06: 30 New
    14
    Clearly, the poor will become even paler, and the rich will be richer, nothing new.
    1. hydrox
      hydrox 9 June 2020 07: 03 New
      +2
      What do you want?
      This is still such a planned economy in our country - everything goes on painting!
      All sisters are earrings: we have few oligarchs, and we won’t offend them: all are equal to a trillion people, and a trillion to the oligarchs - in the whole world there is such a situation, except for China - because there they shoot more!
      1. Andrey Yuryevich
        Andrey Yuryevich 9 June 2020 07: 07 New
        20
        solid "noodles" all these predictions. better celebrate our Holiday, GSVGshniki! drinks
        1. hydrox
          hydrox 9 June 2020 07: 33 New
          +7
          Well done!
          They stood in the right place, the necessary results were obtained - and would have stood further, if not for the betrayal of Judas the Sword!
          1. Stas157
            Stas157 9 June 2020 08: 27 New
            +4
            the fall is fixed practically in all sectorsincluding light and heavy industry, services, fuel and energy market ...
            According to the results of 2020, the country's economy expects a recession of about 6 percent.

            But Forbes reports that
            According to Forbes magazine, the number of dollar billionaires in Russia over the past two months has grown from 99 to 101 people, and their combined condition - from 392 to 454 billion dollars.

            How so? All have a minus, but these have a plus! Are they getting rich in impoverishment (of the people)?

            What is characteristic is that the curcule that pours salt into rotten containers, spit on safety rules and wanting to save a penny, got rich the most!

            Vladimir Potanin, owner of Norilsk Nickel, became rich by $ 6,4 billion

            And he promised to allocate as much as 10 billion (rubles, of course!) To the largest environmental disaster in the Arctic that happened through his fault, which in dollars is not more than 150 million. With his profits, these are mere pennies.
            1. Lexus
              Lexus 9 June 2020 09: 52 New
              -1
              How so? All have a minus, but these have a plus! Are they getting rich in impoverishment (of the people)?

              Elementary. In Russia, the rich is the one who steals from the state more than it does from it. And these are already completely "in the law", in fact, above him, the Law. It was not written for them. They do not put their ears under the noodles and do not listen to "nightingale trills", because they know from what substance, to whom and at what price "they order the music." Such a protracted series with an already close denouement.
              1. Stas157
                Stas157 9 June 2020 11: 31 New
                +2
                It is significant that instead of putting the culprit who committed the large-scale environmental disaster behind bars, Putin only scolded his friend. Noticing that it would be cheaper to store diesel fuel in a non-rotten container.
                1. Alex777
                  Alex777 9 June 2020 14: 04 New
                  0
                  And the old woman is proruha.
                  It's not a mistake that he does not do anything.
                  Everyone thinks he is a strategist seeing the fight from the side.

                  Popular sayings.
                  1. Stas157
                    Stas157 9 June 2020 16: 02 New
                    +3
                    Quote: Alex777
                    And the old woman is proruha.
                    It's not a mistake that he does not do anything.
                    Everyone thinks he is a strategist seeing the fight from the side.

                    Popular sayings.

                    Why do you say folk sayings to crime are you attending? They are not about that at all.

                    Store diesel in a rotten container (which was repaired according to documents) a crimewhich led to a grand catastrophe. But criminal Potanin will not answer for this criminally.

                    According to Oleg Mitvol, former deputy head of Rosprirodnadzor, the damage from a diesel spill in Norilsk can reach 100 billion, and work to restore the natural environment will require, at best, from 5 to 10 years.

                    According to Greenpeace, the fuel spill in Norilsk on the scale of environmental damage is biggest disaster in the polar Arctic.

                    According to an employee of the Norilsk-Taimyr energy company, the cause of the disaster was extreme wear equipment and inadequate funds allocated for its repair
                    1. Alex777
                      Alex777 9 June 2020 16: 26 New
                      0
                      But the criminal Potanin will not answer for this criminally.

                      And what article of the Criminal Code should he answer?
                      As far as I know, the article has just begun to be prepared after this accident.
                      1. Stas157
                        Stas157 9 June 2020 16: 39 New
                        +3
                        There would be a man, and the article ...
                        Quote: Alex777
                        And what article of the Criminal Code should he answer?

                        Well, listen, I'm not a lawyer! Offhand (this is only one of the possible articles):
                        Article 293 of the Criminal Code. Negligence. Clause 1.1.
                        1.1. The same act, entailing the infliction of especially serious damage, -

                        shall be punishable by a fine in the amount of two hundred thousand to five hundred thousand rubles, or in the amount of the wage or other income of the convicted person for a period of one year to three years with the deprivation of the right to hold certain posts or engage in certain activities for up to three years or without, either compulsory labor for up to four hundred and eighty hours, or correctional labor for up to two years, or arrest for up to six months.
                      2. Alex777
                        Alex777 9 June 2020 16: 57 New
                        0
                        Well. I want criminal responsibility, then not a lawyer. wink
                        Potanin, as the head of MMC Norilsk Nickel, proved to be a very effective manager (although this is now an abusive phrase).
                        If it is resolutely removed, a pile of other problems will appear. Domino effect.
                        But it is necessary for the strategic enterprise to work. People received RFP. Et al.
                        As for the fine of 10 lards, this is a good lesson for the future. And it seems to me that money will not be taken out of the company's turnover. hi
                      3. Stas157
                        Stas157 9 June 2020 17: 21 New
                        +3
                        Well, I even brought you an article of the Criminal Code, why is this here:
                        Quote: Alex777
                        here you go. I want criminal responsibility, then not a lawyer.

                        The oligarch, (due to greed) violating all safety and technical regulations (ask what else!), Pours thousands of tons of tanning salons into rotten containers. Which naturally leads to an eco-disaster on a global scale. Do you think should not answer for the criminal ?? There’s simply nothing to talk about with you.

                        Quote: Alex777
                        As for the fine of 10 lard - then this is a good lesson for the future.

                        150 million dollars, this is dust for the richest billionaire in Russia. He has a plane, a yacht is more expensive. But who will return ecology to the Arctic?
    2. Vitaly Tsymbal
      Vitaly Tsymbal 9 June 2020 07: 36 New
      +5
      GSVG - 1987-89 school of junior specialists of the engineering troops in Glau. There were good times.
  • Sotskiy
    Sotskiy 9 June 2020 07: 13 New
    +7
    Quote: Pessimist22
    Clearly, the poor will become even paler, and the rich will be richer, nothing new.

    The main thing is the stability of the course pursued by the party and the government towards the inevitability and consistent implementation of the planned "reforms"! wink
    For example, in our region of Chubais, I began to put windmills, this is in the area where there are four nuclear power units. request
    In truth, whatever the "child" is amused with, as long as the budget is mastered. lol
    1. hydrox
      hydrox 9 June 2020 07: 38 New
      +6
      So, rusty Tolik does not have a technical education, but he knows well that the cost of "green" energy is 4-6 times higher than the energy from a thermal power plant.
      It is he who is striving for his most cherished dream "dollar per kilowatt"!
      1. Sotskiy
        Sotskiy 9 June 2020 07: 45 New
        0
        Quote: hydrox
        It is he who is striving for his most cherished dream "dollar per kilowatt"!

        Yeah. The wrong country was called the USA. lol Well, we catch up and overtake? wink
        Give a kilowatt for three dollars! fellow
        1. hydrox
          hydrox 9 June 2020 08: 02 New
          +1
          Unfortunately, this will not work.
          If the period of inactivity lasts until the fall, then the people on unemployment will go berserk and will not be saved by any "unemployment" handouts extended just until August, and then is there anything other than confusion?
          1. Sotskiy
            Sotskiy 9 June 2020 08: 25 New
            +6
            Quote: hydrox
            Unfortunately, this will not work.
            If the period of inactivity lasts until the fall, then the people on unemployment will go berserk and will not be saved by any "unemployment" handouts extended just until August, and then is there anything other than confusion?

            Yes, what trouble? belay We’ll transfer the amendments from federal laws to the main one and all will be happy. fellow
            In the meantime, we officially announced the final closure of the largest in Europe bearing plant GPZ-10.
            1. hydrox
              hydrox 9 June 2020 08: 32 New
              +2
              It's okay: our government will definitely come up with something so that the sliding bearings slide like rolling bearings - and then we fly to Mars to plant apple trees there !!! laughing
              1. Vadim237
                Vadim237 9 June 2020 14: 34 New
                0
                Do not worry about plain bearings, we will take care.
            2. CT-55_11-9009
              CT-55_11-9009 9 June 2020 11: 55 New
              0
              Quote: Sovetskiy
              In the meantime, we officially announced the final closure of the largest in Europe bearing plant GPZ-10.

              Oh yo, looked now - really closing. Not, well, we're ahead of the rest in the production of bearings (no) And why would bearings be needed if production is being killed exactly according to plan? ..
        2. Sklendarka
          Sklendarka 9 June 2020 08: 34 New
          0
          Already had a dip 500
      2. Alex777
        Alex777 9 June 2020 14: 12 New
        0
        So, rusty Tolik does not have a technical education, but he knows well that the cost of "green" energy is 4-6 times higher than the energy from a thermal power plant.

        I do not like Chubais. And I never liked it. Although he graduated from Moscow State University several years earlier than me.
        There is an example - Germany. We set the task: in about 20 years, switch to green energy. These are their German dreamers with a large number of voters.
        Personally, I do not see an alternative to ICE and do not want to ride a hybrid (I don’t even stutter about an electric car). With our winters and temperatures, battery capacity is greatly reduced. And I know firsthand about the service - my wife had a hybrid.
        But the contract for gas supplies under SP-1 was agreed precisely for 20 years. If by that time they really can refuse gas, then someone should sell them windmills. And for Russia this will not soon become relevant. hi
        1. hydrox
          hydrox 9 June 2020 16: 43 New
          0
          Do not pay attention :: The whole liberda has its brains turned outward due to the global movement of brain spinning to review almost all the constants, axioms and unshakable secular truths and postulates. Moreover, it was like madness that enveloped everyone (and the Russian Liberdy youth of the new formation!), The common sense of poher (after all, nothing could be better than faith in Greta's nonsense!).
          All this will settle down within a few years, but it will not enter the previous balance, although some life-defining benchmarks will remain similar to the previous ones, and in these rappers housing, heat, food and light will be determining.
  • DVR
    DVR 9 June 2020 14: 23 New
    0
    Clearly, the poor will become even paler, and the rich will be richer, nothing new

    Well this is the general tendency of capitalism.
    In the late 80s, there were many pessimists who very actively began to tell us that everything in the "scoop" is bad, everything is not like people, the rotting west in chocolate, and there are hundreds of varieties of sausages in stores. And in the United States, in general, heavenly heaven on earth, and we have the whole history of the USSR - blood, terror, the Gulag, and animals rule us. I was already ashamed of my country. Many believed the pessimists, and we decided to build capitalism in our country. And the USA became the best friend and helped us in this matter, they wrote the laws, they even say they took part in writing the main one wink Got what they got ...
    The heavy 90s pessimists were silent, they didn’t give a voice, apparently they enjoyed what was built from their pitch. Rejoiced at a new carefree life. But by the 2010s, life had become so unbearable that exactly the same pessimists now tell us that in the USSR there was heaven on earth, justice and prosperity. And 100 varieties of sausages no longer appeal to them. Everyone in poverty is poor, and they say that we have totalitarianism and repression. They speak everywhere and write and do not hide that you really believe that the bloody regime has come ...
    And there are so many billionaires that you cannot count. True, the United States, where pessimists used to call us, is still very far away, there is something to strive for, and we are already being called back. But in terms of income inequality, we are almost equal. They call back and don't invent anything new, why? All formulas have already been written, simple and ingenious. Well, who did not admire the winged: "Take everything, and divide it."
    I'm really confused which of the pessimists are more correct, former or current?
  • Deniska999
    Deniska999 9 June 2020 06: 31 New
    +5
    How could one predict at the end of 2019 that most of the civilized world would be quarantined? Even at the beginning of 2020, it was difficult to foresee. The main drop is because of the lockdown.
    1. Civil
      Civil 9 June 2020 07: 00 New
      -1
      All lies - there will be no fall, the Russian economy no longer depends on the damned West, import substitution is already rushing from all the cracks, a little more - just a little more and catch up with Romania in terms of population income!
      1. Uncle lee
        Uncle lee 9 June 2020 07: 58 New
        +4
        And when did the forecasts coincide?
      2. hydrox
        hydrox 9 June 2020 08: 08 New
        +1
        Quote: Civil
        a little bit more and catch up with Romania in terms of income

        I don’t catch up :: Romanians can pick strawberries in Spain and France, and move pears from the plantation to the garden plot, but in our area nothing grows except potatoes - so no one calls for potatoes to dig !!
  • Far B
    Far B 9 June 2020 06: 36 New
    +2
    no one predicted a sharp drop in oil prices
    sorry, but how can Novak's bustling throwings be predicted at the OPEC negotiations? Here even Grandmother Vanga would have sat in a puddle.
    As for the rest, the percentage of economic decline does not cause questions and doubts. But there are doubts regarding growth next year: we have been steadily falling since 2014, and then why, will we violate stability ?! Cho the guarantor will say that ?!
    1. carstorm 11
      carstorm 11 9 June 2020 06: 44 New
      -4
      cluttered? seriously?) I don’t know who exactly did everything there, but all the goals that were set by ours were achieved. USA and Canada in a bargain. Markets saved. you can call those actions as you like, but the fact that they are not hectic is for sure)
      1. Far B
        Far B 9 June 2020 07: 18 New
        +4
        All the goals that were set, achieved? Seriously?) You, of course, were introduced to the aforementioned list of goals, otherwise you wouldn’t have made such statements with such certainty, right? You are a person with an increased sense of responsibility for everything that you said, I'm sure.
        1. Sidor Amenpodestovich
          Sidor Amenpodestovich 9 June 2020 07: 27 New
          0
          Of course, you were introduced to the aforementioned list of goals, otherwise you wouldn’t have made such statements with such certainty, right?

          And it turns out that you got acquainted, since you are making such statements?
          1. Far B
            Far B 9 June 2020 07: 36 New
            +2
            just such
            which ones? Give an example, adit, otherwise you somehow succeeded with your finger in one place.
            1. Sidor Amenpodestovich
              Sidor Amenpodestovich 9 June 2020 07: 47 New
              +1
              Novak's bustle throwing at OPEC talks

              By what signs did you determine that they were hectic? Just because you so want and it seems, or "well, that's that ... it can't be otherwise"?
              Oh, got it! Since, as a result of negotiations, oil did not cost eighty bucks, and in general, it means failure for all auto-da-fes, right?
            2. Sidor Amenpodestovich
              Sidor Amenpodestovich 9 June 2020 08: 09 New
              -3
              Well, sho? Do you answer the questions?
              and then somehow with your finger in one place you did it.

              However, and so it is clear. Anyone is simply obliged to always and everywhere act with 146 percent efficiency, otherwise it is not safe. Except for you, of course. You don’t have to, because you are special.
          2. DenZ
            DenZ 9 June 2020 08: 20 New
            0
            Quote: Sidor Amenpodestovich
            And it turns out that you got acquainted, since you are making such statements?

            How do you do it? Devote to the logic of your statement? Or is there far from logic at all?
            1. Sidor Amenpodestovich
              Sidor Amenpodestovich 9 June 2020 08: 53 New
              -2
              Everything is fine with my logic. But the point is not in it, but in objectivity, which in the comments of Far B does not even smell.
              Are OPEC + meeting minutes available to him?
              Does he know all the details and nuances of the relationship between this organization and Russia?
              Did he study and analyze all this in detail?
              I did not make any statements, just asked. Because I do not know the fullness of the picture, and to draw general conclusions based on the most superficial information is a lesson for the gifted, to whom I do not belong.
        2. carstorm 11
          carstorm 11 9 June 2020 07: 56 New
          -3
          Well, analyzing in this case is just simple. over the past three years, reducing production in some miraculous way, this reduction was covered by a third party. it is a fact. During this time, the states increased their exports by almost three raa is also a fact. not surprised? we reduce production and the states increase exports at the same time? but these are trifles. even Putin wanted to say whatever they wanted. entering into a deal in the states .. done ?! done. the month of April and statements in those days all the time this was the focus of attention. oil workers said they did not want to cut back as their volumes immediately fill the states. all this was in April and here everyone abruptly lost their memory of what they wanted and what they were achieving) read specialized sources, there it all signed up to the decimal point. I repeat, the main thing is what our-specifically sought to enter into a staff reduction deal!
          Well, as an example, a statement from Rosneft- “From the point of view of Russia's interests, this deal is simply meaningless. We, yielding our own markets, are removing cheap Arab and Russian oil from them in order to make way for expensive American shale oil. And to ensure the efficiency of its production, the proposal that was made by the Russian Federation was not a partnership. The volume of Russian oil is being replaced by the volume of competitors, and this is "masochism". that's actually all the goals are in one statement.
    2. rocket757
      rocket757 9 June 2020 06: 45 New
      -2
      Quote: Dalny V
      Here even Grandmother Vanga would have sat in a puddle.

      And who of all those guys didn't sit down? Do you know those?
      1. Far B
        Far B 9 June 2020 07: 33 New
        +6
        Grandmother Vanga is not iksperd, she is cooler: even before her death, they are naughty, she knew about Syria. She said so: there won’t be, he says, a third world war, it’s too early, she says, Syria still, she says, she didn’t fall. By the way, the suspicion that Putin was in Syria for just that reason climbed me right from the very 2015. In addition, grandmother Wang is also credited with the phrase about Vladimir - they say, they say, Russia and Vladimir will rise to an awesome height. True, she did not specify what kind of Vladimir he was, but Putin, it seems, accepted on his own account (and Zhirinovsky on his own?). In short, I suspect that Putin has a weakness for grandmother's predictions. However, this is my personal opinion laughing
        1. rocket757
          rocket757 9 June 2020 07: 52 New
          +1
          Every body-weight on BV matters. The truth is different for everyone ... here I’m exactly at all, but since they have come, we must do the job to the end.
        2. Per se.
          Per se. 9 June 2020 08: 11 New
          -2
          Quote: Dalny V
          By the way, the suspicion that Putin was in Syria for just that reason climbed me right from the very 2015.
          Rather, these are the consequences of the fact that the "dark knight", that is, Barack Obama, previously appealed to the world community with a request to support the anti-terrorist coalition, which is fighting the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria.

          So, as soon as the United States dodged in Iraq, from the ISIS created by them, we were "allowed" to participate, earlier Russia stubbornly observed sanctions against its Syrian ally, who was bleeding. It would have long been possible to slam all the barmaley, not to wait until Syria loses most of its territory, suffers huge losses in people and equipment. It would not have been necessary to bring in our troops afterwards, just give them modern weapons and military expert advisers.
          1. DVR
            DVR 9 June 2020 12: 36 New
            +1
            Rather, these are the consequences of the fact that the "dark knight", that is, Barack Obama

            "Holy" naivety.
            So, as soon as the United States dodged in Iraq, from the ISIS created by them, we were "allowed" to participate, earlier Russia stubbornly observed sanctions against its bleeding Syrian ally.

            For this purpose, ISIS was created, armed and sponsored, in order to continue to be trimmed and continue to arm and sponsor. For this, they organized the Arab spring, and the IS began to form ISIS and other controlled terrorist organizations in order to get a hold of it. You would be in the General Staff with such logic.
            1. Per se.
              Per se. 9 June 2020 17: 44 New
              0
              Quote: DVR
              You would be in the General Staff with such logic.
              The General Staff does not need my logic, and neither do you. What was the comment about? About when and why we got into Syria, why we started helping Assad so late, why we froze contracts for the supply of military equipment already paid by the Syrians. Comply with "international" (American) sanctions against Syria? Yes, they did. Obama asked the "international community" to intervene, help? Yes, I did. Don't you understand this logic?
              If it’s not clear, it would be a pity if you yourself are from the General Staff. What side will such a delay come to us now, how much Russia will get stuck in Syria (with our dependent capitalism), even if our big minds decide, including in the General Staff.
              1. DVR
                DVR 9 June 2020 19: 08 New
                +1
                it would be a pity if you yourself are from the General Staff.

                Don't be sorry, no reason. I have already written here many times about the role of Russia in Syria, and what this was fraught with for Russia, incl. The deliveries were suspended for reasons, both political and financial. Here, my opponents have already accused Russia of mediocre lending through military-technical cooperation, although it’s not like that, they didn’t give money — it’s bad, they gave it — even worse. In general, everything is always bad for them, their tasks are clear. The main reason is that supplies under the contracts concluded at that time did not solve anything, even if it had successfully resisted, Syria would have been rolled out by a coalition like Iraq in its time, Libya would not have stood by. And we would watch and express concern. Only the presence of Russia made it possible to turn the tide, and it was extremely timely and operational. When no one expected this at all, there were no leaks on the reconnaissance lines. Well, that's another story. And the very scale of the operation for modern Russia is shocking, no one could have guessed. They have been propagandizing for so long that "Russia is bad" that they irreparably missed the moment. It's not easy to organize in a matter of days such a presence, transportation, communications, fuels and lubricants, fuel and energy parts, elementary life support, energy, intelligence, cover, etc. And all with the overwhelming dominance of our "partners" in the region. How many were there, those who fought ISIS, 50 or 60 countries? It takes NATO many months to prepare such operations in the absence of strategic adversaries. So think, when it was all planned, whether it made sense to strictly adhere to those contracts with Syria or it was better to mislead the players by their partial non-observance, and about other things.
                Well, since I hinted at past comments on the topic:
                In spite of everything, Russia is a subject of international relations, of which there are not so many. He is an active player. It was Russia that put an end to the IS project, in which our opponents invested very well, and which was created to destroy Russia. Russia intercepted the game in the Middle East with a brilliant and timely operation in Syria. Of course, the game was taken into account and our "partners", whose playful little hands showed themselves apart from Libya, which they destroyed, also in Turkey, Egypt, Algeria, Sudan, Yemen, etc. Plus Afghanistan. Not to mention Iraq, which has eaten to the point of vomiting democracy. All these states would have already been integrated into a global radical Islamist terrorist supergroup, which would instantly gobble up the Transcaucasus and the former Central Asian republics, and then would start after us. And it's not a fact that they could have stopped already. And these squeals from the State Department only confirm my conclusions.

                And inside the soil was also very well prepared. The assassination of the Mufti of Tatarstan in 2012, a representative of Sufi Islam, who is the main enemy of radical Islamism (which has nothing to do with Islam, like the crusades with Christianity), was a kind of "point of no return." A large network of emissaries at mosques in Russia, schools of preparation and "processing" was destroyed without unnecessary noise and dust.
                1. Per se.
                  Per se. 9 June 2020 20: 35 New
                  0
                  Quote: DVR
                  Deliveries were suspended, for which there were reasons, both political and financial.
                  I have little faith in various "cunning plans", both in Syria and, especially, in Ukraine. We have climbed into a foreign pole of power (having picked up capitalism from the dustbin of history), with the already established leader and master of the world capitalist system, and while our powers that be keep their treasures in foreign banks and foreign currency, we are unlikely to get a truly independent policy. Nor do I believe in any construction of an independent, "parallel capitalism", when puffing one's cheeks in butting with the owner, to raise the rating. Of course, this is just my personal opinion.

                  In any case, I appreciate your reflection of your position as an adult, experienced person.
                  All the best.
                  1. DVR
                    DVR 9 June 2020 22: 53 New
                    0
                    Thank you - this is a compliment, you do not often hear here. Also grateful to you.
                    If not for the construction of an independent "parallel capitalism", and maybe the subsequent "revolution from above", which I doubt, but there are prerequisites, then there would already be something similar (I answered my opponent on another thread):
                    [quote] Where were everyone in the 90s when the brothers steered? When a country is on the brink of an abyss. I, too, was the anti-Putin of the year before 2011-2012. Then he somehow rethought what actually happened in the 91st, in fact, that we have why the king is good, and the boyars are bad, etc.
                    I already wrote here, we could not help but see:
                    [/ quote] Agree the leadership of the Russian Federation to hand over everything, as they have already passed before, tomorrow the West will transfer trillions to their personal accounts, and will give all guarantees of immunity. They will do everything without cheating, because then the whole world is "in your pocket." Fortunately, an example of this is still alive, the truth is cheap, he could not evaluate what he was selling, he probably regrets (maybe he does, I doubt it). “And believe me, in a day all the Western media will admire their genius and insight. And then the Western elite will organize a celebration of their anniversary in London (the eightieth anniversary, apparently) and will again admire their wisdom. In the meantime, tens of millions of lives will count. .. Our lives. We have already gone through this, and the account is in tens of millions (and I'm not talking about the Second World War). [/ Quote]
                    Well, let's swing, who will use it? You or your like-minded people? You will burrow in the burrows or dig in the forest belt, and everyone will be silent. Everything has already been painted here, and beyond them are real resources and organization, action plans are detailed to the smallest detail, including transferring nuclear weapons to NATO countries. Resources are such that never dreamed of. In Ukraine, they also wanted lace panties to Europe, but they received ... Thousands of victims and the neo-Nazi regime.
                    It will be like this:
                    https://vk.com/video163296047_168410119
                    or like this
                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=0Z_BomHI25E&feature=emb_title
                    These are the "easiest" moments.
                    Well, everyone knows about Odessa - it will also be, and a lot of what else. [/ Quote]
    3. hydrox
      hydrox 9 June 2020 06: 57 New
      +5
      And then he will say: "This percentage of the fall is not catastrophic (the world trend, you know, everyone has a crisis! How to get out of it is known: the economists-statesmen have buzzed for 6 years already, but to disfigure the economy in the socio-political sense we will not give it to anyone!
      And the oligarchs ... and what are the oligarchs?
      But they are their own, pocket.
      The nourishing, plump, help with some money :: get out, Potanin, blew 21 thousand cubic meters of diesel fuel out of nowhere, so much so that from a huge lake. Pyasin (and from the river that flows out of it into the Kara Sea) there is not a single photograph (it can be seen that the population does not fall into a swoon!) - but he promised to reimburse 10 billion pieces of paper, but it would have to be 100-200 more times - but, maybe a stalemate is a generous ... " laughing
  • rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 9 June 2020 06: 39 New
    +3
    the ministry of economic development expects the economy to fall by 5 percent in 2020 and rise by 2,8% in 2021
    The numbers are practically one on one with the WB forecasts. I immediately recall a joke about Chukchi and weather forecaster:
    The weather forecaster looking out of the window asks the Chukchi:
    - what will the weather be like today?
    - he replies: "Snow however."
    - forecaster: "Exactly?"
    - Chukchi: "So you broadcast on the radio."
  • hydrox
    hydrox 9 June 2020 06: 42 New
    +1
    === True, the word "popular" in recent decades, unfortunately, looks superfluous ... ===

    If only "superfluous", here "LIE" will be just in place.
    1. Alex777
      Alex777 9 June 2020 07: 38 New
      -2
      But under Stalin, the peasants had land, the workers had plants, etc. etc.
      1. hydrox
        hydrox 9 June 2020 07: 57 New
        +5
        How dreamy you are ...
        We do not live under Stalin, but under the oligarchy ... laughing
        It was Stalin’s dream to pull Russia out of his bast shoes and put her shoes on and washed not in a black bath, but in a German shower room - and IT HAS RECEIVED AT HIM !!
      2. AU Ivanov.
        AU Ivanov. 9 June 2020 08: 12 New
        -2
        Under communists, both land and factories were owned by the state. The people did not have property. The land is with the peasants, but they were forced into collective farms - a paradox, don’t you?
        1. Far B
          Far B 9 June 2020 09: 03 New
          +4
          Come on? What about collective property? Have you not heard of the artel? Including industrial ones? What about cooperatives? Collective farms, by the way, are also collective property. So it would be more careful that everything was owned by the state under the communists. Khrushch - and he did not master the complete nationalization, although he tried with all his might, the stake was aspen.
          1. DVR
            DVR 9 June 2020 12: 56 New
            +2
            Come on? What about collective property? Have you not heard of the artel? Including industrial ones? What about cooperatives? Collective farms, by the way, are also collective property. So it would be more careful that everything was owned by the state under the communists. Khrushch - and he did not master the complete nationalization, although he tried with all his might, the stake was aspen.

            Yes, the fact of the matter is that Khrushchev did an excellent job of destroying artel entrepreneurship in the USSR, and by 1960 artels were liquidated, all property was alienated in favor of the state, and members of artels were actually robbed ..
  • rocket757
    rocket757 9 June 2020 06: 43 New
    +2
    In connection with the events associated with the pandemic, the decline is recorded in almost all sectors, including light and heavy industries, the service sector, and the fuel and energy market.

    Not happy, but logical .. this is the price of embedding into the global economy, which is now shaking not childishly.
    the experts of this organization are trying to keep their "nose in the wind."

    That's why they are experts, Schaub portray the role of the weather vane!
    the question of the real significance of all these "expert assessments" and forecasts for the sustainable operation of the "national economy".

    The question is of course interesting !!! but, it seems to me, the experts will always get out ... cunning guys, but the economy will be, will put pressure on us all! that's for sure, it won’t be very good ...
    However, we experienced everything and we will survive it.
    1. Alex777
      Alex777 9 June 2020 07: 41 New
      +2
      And those who aching do not understand what could be much worse.
      We survive. Time is such that you need to survive it. hi
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 9 June 2020 07: 55 New
        +1
        It may be different. In different ways then, now and in the future ... everything needs to be passed, it is much better to do it confidently and with dignity, let the worms and other reptiles crawl.
      2. kjhg
        kjhg 9 June 2020 08: 50 New
        +2
        Quote: Alex777
        And those who aching do not understand what could be much worse.

        Of course it could. Putin even has examples - times of raids on Russia by the Pechenegs and Polovtsy. Well, if it gets really bad, then you can remember about rations of bread in besieged Leningrad with eating of all dogs and cats. In general, there is much to strive for under the leadership of the most brilliant hands of the leader and his most effective managers. fellow. The most important thing now is to nullify the most brilliant and, at the same time, the basic law, the future of the country and the remnants of common sense. The last point is especially important. Then we’ll certainly heal.
        PS If I had not personally lived at the present time and had not seen this whole circus with my own eyes, I would never have believed the stories of other people. Now I understand why the Bolsheviks were so cruel to the tsarist regime.
        1. Alex777
          Alex777 9 June 2020 10: 37 New
          -4
          What did Stalin do with the old Bolsheviks do you know?
          Almost no one survived there.
          There was no more efficient President in our history.
          Look at Khrushchev, at Brezhnev, at Chernenko, at Yeltsin.
          It’s better not to recall Gorbachev at all - a born traitor led the country.
          GDP gives all 100 points in advance. Both in terms of performance and talent.
          Although he does not succeed. Enemies and whiners enough.
          And Yeltsin had Stepashin as an option. Can you imagine how you would live?
          Do you know how he steered the Accounts Chamber?
          If at least somehow you can get real information - find out why Medvedev was removed? wink
          And the revolution was arranged by people who lived well (as we do now), but were unhappy. They wanted to get better. Received in full. hi
          1. kjhg
            kjhg 9 June 2020 11: 01 New
            +3
            Quote: Alex777
            What did Stalin do with the old Bolsheviks do you know?
            Almost no one survived there.

            Those. You want to say that Stalin took revenge on the old Bolsheviks for the shooting of the royal family? Original. I have not heard such nonsense.
            Quote: Alex777
            There was no more efficient President in our history.

            Let's say. But the main question What is its performance directed at? When he became president in 2000, there were 3–5 billionaires in Russia. Today there are more than 100. Among them are close friends of Putin and acquaintances.
            Quote: Alex777
            GDP gives all 100 points in advance. Both in terms of performance and talent.

            He can give 100 points only in this:
            - in the withdrawal of capital from the country
            - in the export of natural raw materials
            - in the gap between super-rich and other citizens
            - in the level of corruption
            - in the level of unprofessionalism
            - in the number of beggars
            - in the duration of the reign
            - in the amount of lies
            etc. You can list for a very long time.
            1. Alex777
              Alex777 9 June 2020 13: 56 New
              -2
              Stalin avenged the old Bolsheviks for the shooting of the royal family? Original. I have not heard such nonsense.

              And I have not heard such nonsense. This is your crap.
              Stalin rewrote the story. And he removed the witnesses.
              And Trotsky in the first place.
              Can you imagine Trotsky's role in the revolution?

              He can give 100 points only in this:
              - in the withdrawal of capital from the country
              - in the export of natural raw materials
              - in the gap between super-rich and other citizens
              - in the level of corruption
              - in the level of unprofessionalism
              - in the number of beggars
              - in the duration of the reign
              - in the amount of lies
              etc. You can list for a very long time.

              Yes, my friend, ready-made propagandist of the State Department!
              Contact - will be welcomed with open arms. bully

              1) All purchases of imported goods fall into the data on the export of capital.
              Export profit - these are completely different numbers.
              2) The export of natural raw materials is a worldwide practice. The United States is exporting shale gas and oil and not only does not complex on this topic, but also uses sanctions to deprive us of this "disadvantage."
              3) The money gap is a worldwide trend. Look at "communist" China. There are the most billionaires.
              4) I do not protect anyone. but the theme of corruption was developed by EBN, giving a direct command to its administration to engage in "making money."
              In the gray zone at the end of the 90s there were more than half of all the money. This zone is now steadily shrinking. I know what I'm talking about.
              It was impossible to close immediately such a part of the economy. Yes, and many other tasks in the first 2 terms were about which you did not know and forgot.
              Landing also went. There is little space and time, otherwise it would be recalled.
              5) It is interesting from what managerial level do you talk about professionalism? IMHO - with the set of people that the GDP has (and he has no other writers for you), he is trying to achieve the maximum. Although I already wrote about my acute negative attitude towards Gref, Chubais, Medvedev, Rogozin and others.
              6) You, apparently, were not in the States and did not see how many beggars there. Many times more. Moreover, many simply do not want to work at all.
              7) No one really complains about how much Merkel rules. For continuous periods - more than Putin. Another thing is that she has made mistakes (at the suggestion of American "partners") lately and there is something incomprehensible about her health.
              8) Only a very informed person can raise the topic of lies. You are not like that.
  • Strashila
    Strashila 9 June 2020 07: 02 New
    0
    "The forecast for the fall of the Russian economy in 2020 has been presented," I understand, one must be realistic, that the growth requires the development of industry, the creation of jobs, but such a trend is not observed.
    Actually from where to be, no development concept is voiced. In the days of the USSR, the first stage included programs for electrification, education and science, industrialization, the creation of collective farms, and the development of processing industries.
    Currently, where to dig?
    1. hydrox
      hydrox 9 June 2020 07: 29 New
      -2
      Quote: Strashila
      Currently, where to dig?

      You are here: choose a cemetery that is most convenient for your children, negotiate with the administration - and dig to your health! laughing
      And the children will already arrange your grave, do not worry! yes
    2. Sotskiy
      Sotskiy 9 June 2020 13: 04 New
      +2
      Quote: Strashila
      In the days of the USSR, the first stage included programs for electrification, education and science, industrialization, the creation of collective farms, and the development of processing industries.
      Currently, where to dig?

      Anywhere, but not during the Soviet era. Chubais clearly explained the goals of the "privatization" of the 90s.
  • ANDREY MIKHAILOV_2
    ANDREY MIKHAILOV_2 9 June 2020 07: 08 New
    +1
    Lord every day, some experts predict the Russian economy.
  • Doccor18
    Doccor18 9 June 2020 07: 12 New
    +5
    They also offer forecasts in which, by and large, you can write any numbers - anyway, no one will bear any responsibility for such forecasts, even if they turn out to be far from reality.

    "News" from what is so-so news.
  • Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 9 June 2020 07: 13 New
    0
    The forecast for the fall of the Russian economy in 2020 is presented.
    Diarrhea prognosis "We are all going to die."
    They also offer forecasts in which, by and large, you can write any numbers - anyway Liability no one will bear such forecasts, even if they turn out to be far from reality.
    From the beginning, responsibility, then you can consider the opinion of experts.
  • Vitaly Tsymbal
    Vitaly Tsymbal 9 June 2020 07: 33 New
    +4
    Yesterday they announced on TV that the coronavirus infects the human brain ... Looking at the "activities" of our officials, I have big doubts - maybe it's not the virus to blame after all ??? what
    1. hydrox
      hydrox 9 June 2020 08: 20 New
      +1
      Quote: Vitaly Tsymbal
      maybe it's not the virus to blame

      Well, HOW it is so possible to disrespect parents of respected people who have sat down on the masters and receive state salaries for failed moldiness in the workplace, indirectly accusing them of having some degree of tautness of their children's eyes to their temples. No, to honestly and directly accuse them of conceiving in a state (oh, how embarrassing! - I don’t know how many liters were drunk there!) ... belay
  • Million
    Million 9 June 2020 07: 47 New
    +5
    Our durindy, except to trade, do nothing more and do not know how. Yes, and they are worthless traders ....
    1. Krasnoyarsk
      Krasnoyarsk 9 June 2020 08: 43 New
      0
      Quote: Million
      Our idiots, except to trade, do not know how to do anything else.

      I read the first part of the post and immediately aroused from indignation. But, having read the post to the end, he immediately calmed down.
      Why are they worthless traders? Yes, because they sell stolen goods. His stolen, as you know, urgently needs to be sold. It doesn't matter to whom and at what price.
      1. Million
        Million 9 June 2020 09: 11 New
        +2
        "Everything - sell everything quickly. Let them confiscate it later!"
  • Old partisan
    Old partisan 9 June 2020 08: 17 New
    +7
    Gentlemen comrades brothers and sisters
    And what are you actually excited?
    You need to put up already
    The Russian economy is gone. There is oil gas, nickel ore, even metallurgical plants where those ores are smelted into pipes to send oil gas over the hill and receive the desired green papers.
    Oh yes there is still a defense industry
    Well, it pushes the whole economy forward.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 9 June 2020 14: 39 New
      0
      And everything else that you did not list.
  • parusnik
    parusnik 9 June 2020 08: 26 New
    0
    True, the word "popular" in recent decades, unfortunately, looks superfluous ...
    ..... That's right ..
  • Krasnoyarsk
    Krasnoyarsk 9 June 2020 08: 36 New
    -2
    = The forecast for the fall of the Russian economy in 2020 is presented =
    But what, does the Russian economy still have a place to fall? request
    1. Overlock
      Overlock 9 June 2020 17: 58 New
      0
      Quote: Krasnoyarsk
      But what, does the Russian economy still have a place to fall?

      the financial gap is endless
      1. Krasnoyarsk
        Krasnoyarsk 9 June 2020 19: 32 New
        0
        Quote: Overlock
        Quote: Krasnoyarsk
        But what, does the Russian economy still have a place to fall?

        the financial gap is endless

        Thanks, reassured. good
  • Keyser soze
    Keyser soze 9 June 2020 08: 37 New
    0
    The World Bank experts were sitting and before dinner they poked the keys on the computer .... You minus 6% and give you minus 6,7% ....

    We are the same 6,7 predicted. And the restoration next year is awesome ... But in fact, if we linger in the order of minus 10%, it will be great straight .... We will see the numbers of the third quarter and everything will become clear.
  • Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx 9 June 2020 08: 42 New
    +2
    The whole problem is that no one in 2019 or at the beginning of 2020 predicted either a sharp drop in oil prices or other economic “subsidence”.

    You know, the fall in oil prices has nothing to do with it. At any cost of oil, Russian retail gas prices are rising by themselves. And forecasting the unpredictable is a waste of time. A special economy has been created, especially for Russia, when:
    Quote: Pessimist22
    Clearly, the poor will become even paler, and the rich will be richer, nothing new.

    About any national character of industrial production of speech simply can not go. For more than a quarter of a century, power has only been engaged in fooling the population. The principle of "thimbles." Media owned by private individuals - “barkers”; 190 dollar millionaires - “dummy players”; 000 - terpils ...
    It’s just the hell out of achievements. Every year there are fewer workers, production workers, more managers and all kinds of speculators with harmonious names.
    There has been a violation of all economic foundations (both socialist and capitalist). You see, the world experience and the experience of the development of the USSR is not acceptable for Russia. But any "accountant" strives to give forecasts.
    I am not an accountant, but I can assume that the most interesting events await us ahead (who will survive or survive). The economy will simply disappear, as will education and healthcare. About the latter, I can say that in any pharmacy, the pharmacist, with his consultations and advice, began to replace elderly people (and middle-aged too) with visits to the doctor. We have moved from social free medical care to insurance medicine and self-medication. As for production, the introduction of new “capacities” for several dozens of staff does not draw any long-term prospects for the appearance of 25 high-tech jobs. And the worn-out equipment of the Soviet era, which has “successfully” exhausted its resources and is not spoiled by modernization, will make itself felt by the next “suddenly-hit” accidents and catastrophes, like the PD-000, Norilsk and other famous places.
  • New Year day
    New Year day 9 June 2020 08: 45 New
    +7
    based on the postulate of Medvedev

    We are waiting for new taxes on water and air ..
  • dgonni
    dgonni 9 June 2020 09: 48 New
    0
    So to speak! Given the planned expansion of mattress LNG and oil in Europe in mid-2020, there were still forecasts of falling oil and gas prices. It was just that there were other numbers. The virus with the crown simply accelerated the whole process and the level of price reduction.
  • Krasnodar
    Krasnodar 9 June 2020 10: 35 New
    +2
    Six percent is not bad, on average, in developed countries - ten
    1. Andobor
      Andobor 9 June 2020 13: 36 New
      -2
      Quote: Krasnodar
      Six percent is not bad, on average, in developed countries - ten

      I didn’t look, but as expected - we have less globalization, sanctions have helped. Four percent overtake Vesmir., Even with a fall - a brilliant result, - the forecast so far.
  • iouris
    iouris 9 June 2020 13: 49 New
    +2
    We also need a forecast for the growth of losses from foreign trade.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 9 June 2020 14: 41 New
      0
      You have not sold anything yet - and you already have some kind of losses.