Oil for thirty: market awaiting US stock data

At today's exchange trading, the July futures for Brent crude oil rose by more than seven percent, exceeding $ 29 per barrel, and continues to grow. At the moment (13:30 on Tuesday), its cost is close to 30 dollars per barrel.

This data is based on information from the portal Investing.com.

Yesterday's trading also pleased oilmen, as oil also grew, reaching the end of the day to around $ 27,8 per barrel. So the market reacted to the softening of quarantine measures in a number of countries around the world. This gives reason to hope for an increase in oil consumption and a decrease in the level of storage fullness.

In addition, a positive reaction from the market was triggered by a statement by the US administration that the United States did not intend to raise import duties on goods from China if Beijing, in turn, did not cease to comply with the terms of the trade agreement. But for now, one should not completely discard the possibility of a new round of the US-Chinese trade war, because Trump’s threat to punish China for hiding information about the coronavirus could become an occasion to it.

In addition, oil demand is unlikely to recover until quarantine restrictions are lifted everywhere. In particular, it should be borne in mind that airlines that consume significant volumes of oil products have not yet resumed operations, and this is not to be expected in the near future.

Now the market is anxiously and hopefully awaiting tomorrow's publication of information on the dynamics of US oil reserves. If it turns out that they grew by more than 10 million barrels, such news may be a signal for a new price collapse. After all, it means that “black gold” remains unclaimed, and oil storage facilities are filled to the limit. If the information in the report indicates less reserves, then Brent crude oil will exceed the psychological mark of thirty dollars per barrel.

Comments

[Zeev Zeev]

As I wrote about a week and a half ago, oil creeps up. Over the next month and a half there will be jumps, possibly up to $ 50, then the price will be set until the fall. Let me assume that at around 35-40.

[Ross xnumx]

Quote: Zeev Zeev

Let me assume that at around 35-40.

I did not know that the Saudi princes live in Israel ...

[Zeev Zeev]

Saudi princes visit Israel. But I do not know them. But I am familiar with the trends in the market. And based on these trends, one can make assumptions. As for the increase during the week, I was right (although at the time of my assumptions the oil was quoted below zero). Let's see if I will be right in the future.

[major147]

Quote: Zeev Zeev

Saudi princes visit Israel. But I do not know them. But I am familiar with the trends in the market. And based on these trends, one can make assumptions. As for the increase during the week, I was right (although at the time of my assumptions the oil was quoted below zero). Let's see if I will be right in the future.

Is there data or a hunch?

[Zeev Zeev]

There is data on the basis of which we can make assumptions. For example, plans published by governments of different countries for quitting quarantine.

[major147]

Quote: Zeev Zeev

There is data on the basis of which we can make assumptions. For example, plans published by governments of different countries for quitting quarantine.

Where is the figure from?

[Zeev Zeev]

From past and current energy prices

[major147]

Quote: Zeev Zeev

From past and current energy prices

Situationally there are differences.

[Mikhail Tynda]

The back is sensitive. The ministers of economics him!

[alone]

Quote: Zeev Zeev

As I wrote about a week and a half ago, oil creeps up. Over the next month and a half there will be jumps, possibly up to $ 50, then the price will be set until the fall. Let me assume that at around 35-40.

Well, if oil costs $ 30 per barrel on a stock exchange, it doesn’t mean that it costs 30. That Vrent costs so much .. but there are brands of oil that are cheaper .. And there are more of these other brands on the market than Brent

[Zeev Zeev]

I know that there are more than one type of oil. But since the Norwegian Brent is the standard of price and quality, then for other varieties the price fluctuates with it (with very rare exceptions).

[alone]

Quote: Zeev Zeev

for other varieties, the price fluctuates with it (with very rare exceptions).

Do not hesitate, they are cheaper

[Zeev Zeev]

Brent is growing, the rest are growing. They fall together too

[major147]

Quote: lonely

Quote: Zeev Zeev

As I wrote about a week and a half ago, oil creeps up. Over the next month and a half there will be jumps, possibly up to $ 50, then the price will be set until the fall. Let me assume that at around 35-40.

Well, if oil costs $ 30 per barrel on a stock exchange, it doesn’t mean that it costs 30. That Vrent costs so much .. but there are brands of oil that are cheaper .. And there are more of these other brands on the market than Brent

At 15.50 hours. 05.05.20/XNUMX/XNUMX, Russian Urals brand oil https://nefturals.ru

[Sergey39]

The American market with lamb perseverance believes in the indestructibility of Great America.

[Mountain shooter]

I will not say that the news is positive ... IMHO, it is better to hold oil in low values. So that the American shale bends completely, and does not appear on the market for a long time. This will become a necessary reduction in world production ... at least until July a low price would have lasted.

[Romey]

I also agree that the news is not positive, but for the opposite reasons: to save Russia, it is advisable to bury its oil industry until it starts working for the national economy and population.

[And Makarov]

Everyone is watching oil now

[Vasily Ponomarev]

> For American shale to bend completely

[Paul Siebert]

They will play up to fifty dollars per barrel by the end of the year.
This is already being broadcast from all irons. Different rank analytics.
Another question is what conclusion will Russia make from the collapse in oil prices?
Remain the world gas station?
But that's just it, and so far we are not pulling at a gas station.
We trade in crude oil. Why bother?
But in the United States for several decades, oil was banned from exporting.
They developed their own petrochemical industry.
In addition to high-quality gasoline, they began to produce plastics, polyethylene, plastics, other polymers ...
Oil, remaining in the country, worked for its economy - it turned into consumer goods. Gave work to millions of people.
And it didn’t burn in the engines of overseas cars ...
Why don't we do this?
Of course, I understand that for people of the rank of Sechin or Alekperov it is deferred profit, this concept is abstract, like the rings of Saturn ... Why risk money withdrawn from the bowels of Russia?
But after all, the authorities scream every minute from boxes about caring for the welfare of the people.
Can stomp a leg and roll up their sleeves to build a dozen or two oil refineries in different regions of the country?
Any new clusters of economic development?
Is oil cheap yet?
What - no?
Well, no, and no trial ...

[alone]

Quote: Paul Siebert

Another question is what conclusion will Russia make from the collapse in oil prices?

Well, Russia had time to draw conclusions.
.

Quote: Paul Siebert

Why don't we do this?

You can of course .. But the market is already occupied, this time ... It is necessary to organize production that meets modern world standards, without this access to the market is impossible .. Direct investments are needed, a lot of money ... And investments from outside are impossible, sanctions ... there remains a state investment in this industry ... But do you want this power? And most importantly, even if they do, everything will depend on the cost of goods produced ..

[Lyudmila Kostargina]

The attempt to sit out in the bushes failed - Norway, the largest oil producer in Western Europe, decided to reduce oil production from June to December 2020, thereby joining the OPEC ++ agreements, the Ministry of Oil and Energy said in a press release.

“This production cut will help stabilize the oil market more quickly than the market mechanism alone,” said Minister Tina Bru. Consequently, total Norwegian production in December 250 will be 000 barrels less per day than the companies originally planned.This regulation will end by the end of the year. Norway expects a significant reduction in more expensive oil production, such as shale oil and oil sands from North America. " In addition, Norway will postpone the launch of several production projects from 134 to 000. In total, these volumes would have been 2020 barrels per day by December 2020. Also, the launch of the Yme, Martin Linge, Njord, Hyme, Bauge and Tor fields has been postponed until 300, including due to infection control measures. The Norwegian anti-people king does not want to preserve non-renewable natural resources for his descendants.

[Revival]

But say the crisis .. state-owned company, the property of the people ...

Rosneft proposed to keep remuneration for directors at the level of 2019
April 30. INTERFAX.RU - Rosneft offered shareholders to keep remuneration to members of the company's board of directors at the level of 2019, follows from the draft decision of the annual meeting of shareholders.
Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is offered to pay $ 600, Hamad Rashid Al Mohannadi - $ 000, Faisal Alsuvaidi - $ 530, Matthias Warnig - $ 000, Oleg Vyugin - $ 530, Hans-Jörg Rudloff - $ 000. (Interfax).

[alone]

Quote: Revival

But say the crisis .. state-owned company, the property of the people ...

Well, about what you have listed, say naive people

[Lannan Shi]

Quote: Revival

But say the crisis .. state-owned company, the property of the people ...

You ... Don’t confuse the people and the livestock. The people of that, the people will receive their share of the pie.

[regdan]

In the Kremlin, Syklo also expects from the United States, well, that would crap obscurely.

[Mikhail Tynda]

And what is there in Kiev "not a sucker"?