Military Review

Oil for thirty: market awaiting US stock data

38

At today's exchange trading, the July futures for Brent crude oil rose by more than seven percent, exceeding $ 29 per barrel, and continues to grow. At the moment (13:30 on Tuesday), its cost is close to 30 dollars per barrel.


This data is based on information from the portal Investing.com.

Yesterday's trading also pleased oilmen, as oil also grew, reaching the end of the day to around $ 27,8 per barrel. So the market reacted to the softening of quarantine measures in a number of countries around the world. This gives reason to hope for an increase in oil consumption and a decrease in the level of storage fullness.

In addition, a positive reaction from the market was triggered by a statement by the US administration that the United States did not intend to raise import duties on goods from China if Beijing, in turn, did not cease to comply with the terms of the trade agreement. But for now, one should not completely discard the possibility of a new round of the US-Chinese trade war, because Trump’s threat to punish China for hiding information about the coronavirus could become an occasion to it.

In addition, oil demand is unlikely to recover until quarantine restrictions are lifted everywhere. In particular, it should be borne in mind that airlines that consume significant volumes of oil products have not yet resumed operations, and this is not to be expected in the near future.

Now the market is anxiously and hopefully awaiting tomorrow's publication of information on the dynamics of US oil reserves. If it turns out that they grew by more than 10 million barrels, such news may be a signal for a new price collapse. After all, it means that “black gold” remains unclaimed, and oil storage facilities are filled to the limit. If the information in the report indicates less reserves, then Brent crude oil will exceed the psychological mark of thirty dollars per barrel.
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  1. Zeev Zeev
    Zeev Zeev 5 May 2020 13: 51 New
    +3
    As I wrote about a week and a half ago, oil creeps up. Over the next month and a half there will be jumps, possibly up to $ 50, then the price will be set until the fall. Let me assume that at around 35-40.
    1. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 5 May 2020 14: 14 New
      +3
      Quote: Zeev Zeev
      Let me assume that at around 35-40.

      I did not know that the Saudi princes live in Israel ...
      1. Zeev Zeev
        Zeev Zeev 5 May 2020 14: 38 New
        +2
        Saudi princes visit Israel. But I do not know them. But I am familiar with the trends in the market. And based on these trends, one can make assumptions. As for the increase during the week, I was right (although at the time of my assumptions the oil was quoted below zero). Let's see if I will be right in the future.
        1. major147
          major147 5 May 2020 15: 48 New
          0
          Quote: Zeev Zeev
          Saudi princes visit Israel. But I do not know them. But I am familiar with the trends in the market. And based on these trends, one can make assumptions. As for the increase during the week, I was right (although at the time of my assumptions the oil was quoted below zero). Let's see if I will be right in the future.

          Is there data or a hunch?
          1. Zeev Zeev
            Zeev Zeev 5 May 2020 17: 00 New
            +3
            There is data on the basis of which we can make assumptions. For example, plans published by governments of different countries for quitting quarantine.
            1. major147
              major147 5 May 2020 18: 38 New
              0
              Quote: Zeev Zeev
              There is data on the basis of which we can make assumptions. For example, plans published by governments of different countries for quitting quarantine.

              Where is the figure from?
              1. Zeev Zeev
                Zeev Zeev 5 May 2020 18: 45 New
                0
                From past and current energy prices
                1. major147
                  major147 5 May 2020 18: 46 New
                  0
                  Quote: Zeev Zeev
                  From past and current energy prices

                  Situationally there are differences.
          2. Mikhail Tynda
            Mikhail Tynda 6 May 2020 00: 19 New
            +2
            The back is sensitive. The ministers of economics him!
    2. alone
      alone 5 May 2020 14: 36 New
      +2
      Quote: Zeev Zeev
      As I wrote about a week and a half ago, oil creeps up. Over the next month and a half there will be jumps, possibly up to $ 50, then the price will be set until the fall. Let me assume that at around 35-40.

      Well, if oil costs $ 30 per barrel on a stock exchange, it doesn’t mean that it costs 30. That Vrent costs so much .. but there are brands of oil that are cheaper .. And there are more of these other brands on the market than Brent
      1. Zeev Zeev
        Zeev Zeev 5 May 2020 14: 41 New
        +2
        I know that there are more than one type of oil. But since the Norwegian Brent is the standard of price and quality, then for other varieties the price fluctuates with it (with very rare exceptions).
        1. alone
          alone 5 May 2020 14: 42 New
          0
          Quote: Zeev Zeev
          for other varieties, the price fluctuates with it (with very rare exceptions).

          Do not hesitate, they are cheaper
          1. Zeev Zeev
            Zeev Zeev 5 May 2020 14: 45 New
            +2
            Brent is growing, the rest are growing. They fall together too
      2. major147
        major147 5 May 2020 15: 52 New
        +1
        Quote: lonely
        Quote: Zeev Zeev
        As I wrote about a week and a half ago, oil creeps up. Over the next month and a half there will be jumps, possibly up to $ 50, then the price will be set until the fall. Let me assume that at around 35-40.

        Well, if oil costs $ 30 per barrel on a stock exchange, it doesn’t mean that it costs 30. That Vrent costs so much .. but there are brands of oil that are cheaper .. And there are more of these other brands on the market than Brent


        At 15.50 hours. 05.05.20/XNUMX/XNUMX, Russian Urals brand oil https://nefturals.ru
  2. Sergey39
    Sergey39 5 May 2020 13: 53 New
    0
    The American market with lamb perseverance believes in the indestructibility of Great America.
  3. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 5 May 2020 13: 55 New
    0
    I will not say that the news is positive ... IMHO, it is better to hold oil in low values. So that the American shale bends completely, and does not appear on the market for a long time. This will become a necessary reduction in world production ... at least until July a low price would have lasted.
    1. Romey
      Romey 5 May 2020 15: 27 New
      0
      I also agree that the news is not positive, but for the opposite reasons: to save Russia, it is advisable to bury its oil industry until it starts working for the national economy and population.
  4. And Makarov
    And Makarov 5 May 2020 14: 01 New
    -2
    Everyone is watching oil now
  5. Vasily Ponomarev
    Vasily Ponomarev 5 May 2020 14: 30 New
    +2
    > So that the American slate is completely bent
  6. Paul Siebert
    Paul Siebert 5 May 2020 14: 48 New
    +5
    They will play up to fifty dollars per barrel by the end of the year.
    This is already being broadcast from all irons. Different rank analytics.
    Another question is what conclusion will Russia make from the collapse in oil prices?
    Remain the world gas station?
    But that's just it, and so far we are not pulling at a gas station.
    We trade in crude oil. Why bother?
    But in the United States for several decades, oil was banned from exporting.
    They developed their own petrochemical industry.
    In addition to high-quality gasoline, they began to produce plastics, polyethylene, plastics, other polymers ...
    Oil, remaining in the country, worked for its economy - it turned into consumer goods. Gave work to millions of people.
    And it didn’t burn in the engines of overseas cars ...
    Why don't we do this?
    Of course, I understand that for people of the rank of Sechin or Alekperov it is deferred profit, this concept is abstract, like the rings of Saturn ... Why risk money withdrawn from the bowels of Russia?
    But after all, the authorities scream every minute from boxes about caring for the welfare of the people.
    Can stomp a leg and roll up their sleeves to build a dozen or two oil refineries in different regions of the country?
    Any new clusters of economic development?
    Is oil cheap yet?
    What - no?
    Well, no, and no trial ... request
    1. alone
      alone 5 May 2020 15: 28 New
      -1
      Quote: Paul Siebert
      Another question is what conclusion will Russia make from the collapse in oil prices?

      Well, Russia had time to draw conclusions.
      .
      Quote: Paul Siebert
      Why don't we do this?

      You can of course .. But the market is already occupied, this time ... It is necessary to organize production that meets modern world standards, without this access to the market is impossible .. Direct investments are needed, a lot of money ... And investments from outside are impossible, sanctions ... there remains a state investment in this industry ... But do you want this power? And most importantly, even if they do, everything will depend on the cost of goods produced ..
    2. The comment was deleted.
  7. Lyudmila Kostargina
    Lyudmila Kostargina 5 May 2020 16: 29 New
    +1
    The attempt to sit out in the bushes failed - Norway, the largest oil producer in Western Europe, decided to reduce oil production from June to December 2020, thereby joining the OPEC ++ agreements, the Ministry of Oil and Energy said in a press release.

    “This reduction in production will help to stabilize the oil market faster than the market mechanism alone,” said Minister Tina Bru. “We will reduce Norwegian production by 250 barrels per day from June and 000 barrels per day in the second half of 134.” Consequently, total Norwegian production in December 000 will be 2020 barrels less per day than originally planned by the companies, which regulation will end by the end of the year. Norway expects a significant reduction in more expensive oil production - for example, shale oil and oil sands from North America. " In addition, Norway will postpone the launch of several production projects from 2020 until 300. In total, these volumes would be 000 barrels per day for December 2020. Also, the launch of the Yme, Martin Linge, Njord, Hyme, Bauge and Tor deposits is delayed until 2021, including in connection with infection control measures. The Norwegian anti-people king does not want to preserve non-renewable natural resources for his descendants. laughing
  8. Revival
    Revival 5 May 2020 16: 31 New
    +4
    But say the crisis .. state-owned company, the property of the people ...

    Rosneft proposed to keep remuneration to directors at the level of 2019
    April 30. INTERFAX.RU - Rosneft proposed that shareholders retain remuneration for members of the company's board of directors at the 2019 level, follows from the draft decision of the annual meeting of shareholders.
    Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is invited to pay $ 600, Hamad Rashid Al Mohannadi - $ 000, Faisal Alsuweidi - $ 530, Mattias Warnig - $ 000, Oleg Vyugin - $ 530, Hans-Jörg Rudloff - $ 000.
    1. alone
      alone 5 May 2020 17: 25 New
      +1
      Quote: Revival
      But say the crisis .. state-owned company, the property of the people ...

      Well, about what you have listed, say naive people laughing
    2. Lannan Shi
      Lannan Shi 5 May 2020 18: 34 New
      0
      Quote: Revival
      But say the crisis .. state-owned company, the property of the people ...

      You ... Don’t confuse the people and the livestock. The people of that, the people will receive their share of the pie.
  9. regdan
    regdan 5 May 2020 23: 39 New
    -1
    In the Kremlin, Syklo also expects from the United States, well, that would crap obscurely.
    1. Mikhail Tynda
      Mikhail Tynda 6 May 2020 00: 26 New
      0
      And what is there in Kiev "not a sucker"?