In the US, they reported on a military memo, where as early as the beginning of February the situation on COVID-19

71

Today, the American daily Daily Beast released commentators James La Porte and Spencer Ackerman, in which they talked about a "missed" warning about the possible consequences of the spread of coronavirus.

The material says about a memo that appeared in the US armed forces in early February. In this note, the military reported that the United States could in the near future (at that time) encounter the proliferation of COVID-19. Estimated deaths in the United States of America were also voiced there.



Daily Beast writes that the military warned of possible 80-150 thousand deaths from a new coronavirus.



It is noteworthy that then this forecast, prepared by military experts of the Northern Command of the US Army (NORTHCOM), was called the "black swan." This is the designation of the worst case scenario.

Now, as the mentioned American publication writes, the US president calls it “possible good work” if not more than 19 thousand people die from COVID-200 in the United States.

From the material:

It turns out that the worst-case scenario presented 2 months ago by military experts is now turning into the most optimistic.

The authors state that if emergency measures were taken in the USA then the problem would not have become so big.

The publication notes that the memo "reached the Pentagon," where it was adopted by Secretary Ryan McCarthy. But whether appropriate measures were taken ... Then in the memo it was reported that the new coronavirus has such a property as spreading from person to person even before the onset of symptoms.

From the article:

The CIA and the office of the director of national intelligence declined to comment.

At the same time, the article notes that the curve of the increase in the incidence rate among military personnel, as noted in the above note, will look the same as the curve for the infection rate of civilians. If this is true, then in the United States the number of infected soldiers should go to many thousands.

The question is why precisely these forecasts appeared among the military.
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  1. The comment was deleted.
  2. +11
    April 2 2020 18: 37
    The question is why precisely these forecasts appeared among the military.

    Good question! With a hint, as they say, of hidden "thick" circumstances.
    1. -17
      April 2 2020 18: 41
      Of course. Some words have not yet been said. Putin. Oligarchs. Pension reform. We won’t go to the vote, there they offend gays.
      1. -10
        April 2 2020 18: 44
        Sorry, I'm Wangyu. laughing
        1. +1
          April 3 2020 01: 28
          There are so many of these forecasters ...
          That on this site (itself such), that in analysts of any group whose budget exceeds tens of millions in any state, it is obligatory that BP once predicted at least once a week. This work.
          Not surprisingly, at least some of the predictions come true.
          And it is not surprising that most of these predictions put a bolt.
    2. +21
      April 2 2020 18: 54
      Quote: Tatiana
      [quote] The question is why exactly these forecasts appeared among the military.
      The usual work of the analytical services of the armed forces and the usual "devil-may-care" attitude of decision-makers.
      This is also not uncommon with us.
      1. +2
        April 2 2020 19: 18
        I am not a bureaucrat. BUT: there are no outgoing / incoming, "visas" dates on the document. What else is required?
        A professional journalist will be able to "Photoshop" retroactively without difficulty.
        1. 0
          April 3 2020 00: 08
          In general, such documents should be labeled with chipboard.
          1. 0
            April 3 2020 07: 31
            Quote: tatarin1972
            In general, such documents should be labeled with chipboard.

            If the analysis was done by the contractor, then there isn’t; there are thousands of such offices that feed for a small fraction. The document stupidly vanished among millions of its brothers.
    3. +2
      April 2 2020 19: 58
      Quote: Tatiana
      Good question! With a hint, as they say, of hidden "thick" circumstances.

      So I believed them. Artists.
      1. -1
        April 2 2020 20: 00
        Quote: tihonmarine
        Quote: Tatiana
        Good question! With a hint, as they say, of hidden "thick" circumstances.
        So I believed them. Artists.

        Here I am about the same! American special services - "artists" are "those"!
    4. Maz
      +4
      April 2 2020 20: 30
      I think that the one to whom this scenario was beneficial read the analysts' report, and that is why he did everything so that the black swan was not given any significance and it happened in real life. And who benefits? First of all, to banks - in the new, post-coronary world, everyone will owe them. Large monopolies and conglomerates, the top military, police, national guard, special services, military-industrial complex. Where is our most powerful army? Banking system? intelligence services? networkers, satellite grouping? .... Not in Russia, Not in China, Not in India or Brazil .... by the way now NATO countries are deploying a powerful military and naval fist supposedly to fight drug trafficking from South America, where do you think? .... Off the coast of Venezuela the virus is a virus and the oil of Venezuela after the departure of Russia and China is now a draw. How interesting
      1. 0
        April 2 2020 23: 04
        Quote: Maz
        Off the coast of Venezuela, the virus is a virus and the oil of Venezuela after the departure of Russia and China is now a draw.

        Venezuelan Oil always belonged first American companies.
        Under it was originally built a US oil refinery complex, working with heavy grades of oil, located in the southern states.
        The presence of the Russian Federation and China in Venezuela, or, in other words, an attempt to sip from the traditionally American table, is a temporary phenomenon. This was initially clear to everyone. Therefore, the return of Venezuela under the auspices of the United States is only a matter of time and the end of intra-elite Amer’s squabble over the form of political power over / inside Venezuela. And it turns out, in fact, that the revenues from Venezuelan oil manage to rake in Russian companies, which is unacceptable in any long time period.
        Neither the Russian Federation nor China has the power-influence-charisma to separate Venezuela from the United States.
      2. +1
        April 3 2020 04: 43
        Venezuelan oil after the departure of Russia and China is now a draw.

        No, not leaving. Castling. Rosneft is completely getting rid of Venezuelan assets, transferring them to the Russian state, the oil company said on March 28. According to him, the structure, 100% owned by the government of the Russian Federation, receives all the assets of Rosneft in Venezuela. As a result, Rosneft is emerging from US sanctions.
        https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4307868
        1. +2
          April 3 2020 06: 38
          Quote: riwas
          As a result, Rosneft is emerging from US sanctions.

          And the Russian state comes under new sanctions
    5. 0
      April 3 2020 09: 07
      Ordinary history - it all started back with Cassandra.
    6. 0
      April 3 2020 12: 00
      Quote: Tatiana
      The question is why precisely these forecasts appeared among the military.

      Good question! With a hint, as they say, of hidden "thick" circumstances.

      Well, a hint so-so. Like the question too. The answer is quite simple. Other things being equal, military people, even in Africa, even in the Americas, are better organized than any civilians there. Therefore, they plan everything in advance. I’m sure that our military doctors had a similar forecast earlier than the Ministry of Emergencies.
  3. +1
    April 2 2020 18: 43
    among the military
    rather, this is the beginning. Correctly considered, the EU comes first in terms of infection.
  4. +4
    April 2 2020 18: 44
    If I knew the purchase would live in Sochi, this is from this category.
    Russia and Kazakhstan almost simultaneously blocked the border with Kiai, ours are 3 days early, I understand the northern climate is getting hard. In Kazakhstan, the emergency mode.
    So it was necessary to cover the border with the rest of the world, now there would be minimal problems and not so expensive.
    1. -7
      April 2 2020 18: 49
      Dear ... I believe you. - as Albatross. hi
      1. -5
        April 2 2020 18: 50
        Quote: tanit
        If I knew the purchase would live in Sochi, this is from this category.

        This is unlikely hi
        1. +2
          April 2 2020 18: 58
          Quote: tanit
          This is unlikely

          Former Kazakhs bought dachas near Anapa, there are "Uzbeks, Kyrgyz and Tajiks, Slavs, maybe not a lot of impurities.
          Anapa, yes
          1. -4
            April 2 2020 19: 06
            Wonderful laughing
      2. 0
        April 2 2020 18: 55
        Quote: tanit
        Dear ... I believe you. - as Albatross.

        fucked sick people who arrived in Kazakhstan already from MINSK flights !!!, Then Moscow and St. Petersburg.
        OMSK, I was recently bullied that this could not be. And here a day ago the Governor was already shouting SOS.
        1. -3
          April 2 2020 18: 58
          Ohrenet .. As you all know from Aktobe
          1. -3
            April 2 2020 18: 59
            Maybe ... the KNB will be interested in you, no laughing
            1. 0
              April 2 2020 19: 00
              Not ... You are them. laughing
              1. -2
                April 2 2020 19: 01
                And this is not an insult. laughing
        2. -3
          April 2 2020 19: 07
          Perfectly wassat So ... drinks
          1. +2
            April 2 2020 19: 09
            Quote: tanit
            Maybe ... the KNB will be interested in you, no

            What's wrong with you?
    2. +1
      April 2 2020 20: 02
      Quote: marshes
      If I knew the purchase would live in Sochi, this is from this category.
      Russia and Kazakhstan almost simultaneously blocked the border with Kiai, ours are 3 days early, I understand the northern climate is getting hard. In Kazakhstan, the emergency mode.
      So it was necessary to cover the border with the rest of the world, now there would be minimal problems and not so expensive.

      just went to the "flyradar" ... I don't understand ... how to stop the epidemic. or already a pandemic, with such a density of air traffic? where are we "fooled"? take a look yourself. already the whole world should be like "about Mila Jovovich" ... the corporation "Umbrella" and all that. really true, and everything is according to the script. it's not even a question, but a guess. Have we lived to the "resident evil"? cleaning up unnecessary and then "new world"?
      1. 0
        April 2 2020 20: 16
        Quote: Dead Day
        just went to the "flyradar" ... I don't understand ... how to stop the epidemic. or already a pandemic, with such a density of air traffic? where are we "fooled"? take a look yourself. already the whole world should be like "about Mila Jovovich" ... the corporation "Umbrella" and all that. really true, and everything is according to the script. it's not even a question, but a guess. Have we lived to the "resident evil"? cleaning up unnecessary and then "new world"?

        By the way Fly radar, a useful thing.
        If the government poisons that air traffic is closed, you can show it here.
        With China, on February 3, the border was closed, clearly and deafly. And so, Zaraza went from Europe, Turkey, Moscow, St. Petersburg and Minsk, everyone blocked. Now, inside the country, it has diverged.
        Now the isolation, it can be considered as ordinary flu but a hell of a load on hospitals, it comes out much more expensive.
  5. The comment was deleted.
  6. +2
    April 2 2020 19: 01
    The authors declare that IF then emergency measures were taken in the USA, the problem would not have become so big.

    If only, yes ... Everybody is strong in the back mind. And about 9.11. then they said the same thing. You will not react to all such forecasts of analysts.
    And in general: "If you see the past and the present, but do not see the future, then you seeОrub in the wrong direction. "© (Almost a quote) That's the problem.
    1. +8
      April 2 2020 19: 54
      Quote: Vasyan1971
      If only, yes ... Everybody is strong in the back mind. And about 9.11. then they said the same thing.

      Do you still think that terrorists actually attacked America 11.9.01 !?
      1. +1
        April 2 2020 20: 25
        Quote: figvam
        Do you still think that terrorists actually attacked America 11.9.01 !?

        yes, the "pilots" of the Asa were ... and the wreckage of the planes was taken away with them.
      2. +4
        April 2 2020 20: 29
        Quote: figvam
        Do you still think that terrorists actually attacked America 11.9.01 !?

        Terrorists, of course. Local. Born. With hereditary American citizenship. Or do you think that the "terrorists" are exclusively foreign, bearded, illiterate barmaley? And there are no others?
  7. +2
    April 2 2020 19: 04
    At the same time, the article notes that the curve of the increase in the incidence rate among military personnel, as noted in the above note, will look the same as the curve for the infection of civilians.

    The mortality rate for the population aged 15-50 years in the United States is 8,28 per 1000 people, i.e. - 0,8%.
    https://knoema.ru/atlas/topics/Демография/Смертность/Коэффициент-смертности-взрослого-населения-в-возрасте-15-50

    The mortality rate from coronavirus for a population of 10-39 years = 0,2%, 40-49 years = 0,4%., I.e. somewhere around 0,3%

    It turns out that the mortality rate from coronavirus (0,3%) is less than the natural percentage in the United States (0,8%).
    Further two options (with or from):
    1. Of the 8 dead, 3 will die with coronavirus.
    2. Of the 11 dead, 3 will die from the coronavirus.

    Rather, the option is 1. Then the military is not worth worrying at all.
    1. +3
      April 2 2020 22: 03
      It turns out that the mortality rate from coronavirus (0,3%) is less than the natural percentage in the United States (0,8%).

      Pancake again Well, how many ignoramuses can spoil comments?
      LAST TIME, a lesson in arithmetic for respected and not very respected readers of VO.
      Well, please exert yourself, free your brains from STALIN PUTIN AND THE WORLD BACKGROUND.
      This is arithmetic at the 5th grade level of the Soviet school.

      So
      There is such an indicator as deaths from something per 100000 of the population (random sampling or the total population) is called mortality. Sometimes expressed in%. Suppose that every thousandth is infected from megahrenvirus and all infected become dead. Mortality will be 0,1%
      There is such an indicator of how many patients died - called mortality. In the above example, it is 100%.
      These indicators can not be compared or added, because they have different dimensions. It’s like comparing shallow with soft or adding kilograms and degrees.

      Now about the mortality chart (and this is mortality rather than mortality) by age categories.
      The mortality rate from coronavirus for a population of 10-39 years = 0,2%, 40-49 years = 0,4%., I.e. somewhere around 0,3%

      SO AVERAGE DO NOT CALCULATE TWO VOVOCHKA SADS!
      Suppose that at the age of 10-39, 10000 people fell ill and 20 died - a mortality rate of 0,2%
      at the age of 40-49, 1000 people fell ill and 4 died - mortality 0,4%
      The average in the category of 10-49 years (20 + 4) / (10000 + 1000) = 0,22% and not 0,3% at all

      What really can be said from these numbers is practically nothing. Statistics fail AFTER the epidemic. I can only say that if the majority of the population is ill in the USA, then their losses will be dead more than losses in the second world war. Here you can calculate for yourself .....
      1. 0
        April 2 2020 22: 13
        Quote: bk316
        I can only say that if the majority of the population is ill in the USA, then from the loss the dead will be more than the losses in the Second World War.

        Show the class, teach how to count. How much more will the US losses (on average 2 people die annually per year) per year if 913% of the population is ill?
        1. 0
          April 3 2020 01: 10
          Quote: Alien
          teach how to count.

          The United States lost 2 people in World War II. This is about 400 people a day. From coronovirus today in the United States will die about 000 people. The country whose government earlier and more correctly began to act after the coronovirus will come out with less loss. Moreover, this is a general problem of the survival of mankind or modern civilization, regardless of any policy.
          1. 0
            April 3 2020 12: 43
            Quote: gsev
            The United States lost 2 people in World War II. About 400 people a day

            Ukraine for 2019 lost 272 thousand 297 people. It 756 people per day from socio-economic disorder, without any coronavirus!
            http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/express/expr2020/02/18.pdf
            1. +1
              April 3 2020 14: 15
              without any coronavirus!

              Do you finally refuse to think?
              Well, say so, and I will not waste any more time on you.

              People who died in the United States in World War II would otherwise have remained mostly alive by the end of the war. EXACTLY HOW AND KILLING FROM CORONAVIRUS this year would be alive by the end of the year. Why do you compare them ALL TIME with the dead for the whole spectrum of reasons? If half the population of the Earth is about to die, you will write, but would all these people still die in 100 years?
              You want to say that coronavirus is not an important demographic factor? So write, only here they don’t discuss it at all, it is a humanitarian and economic impact.

              Moreover, again, demographic consequences are not considered so. The model is very complex I can send. But what am I talking about? You first learn the arithmetic mean .... laughing
            2. -1
              April 3 2020 15: 47
              Quote: Alien
              This is 756 people a day from socio-economic disorder,

              This does not refute my data. As far as I know, the population of the USSR began to increase after the expulsion of the Germans from the territories of the USSR occupied by them at the end of 1944. That is, the actions of the Wehrmacht, the SS, the Abwehr and the Gestapo could not do as much harm as the policies of Yeltsin and Gorbachev. And during Putin's time, the situation did not change dramatically. For example, the Spanish epidemic killed 20 million in a year, about 1 million died during World War I. In Russia, about 10 people usually die per day, in the United States, apparently 5000. Today, the mortality rate from the virus in the USA is 12000% of the cases detected. We do not know what percentage of cases were not detected, how mortality will change with overload of the US medical service. One thing can be said, the fate of any country is now in the hands of doctors and the authorities’s readiness to comply with medical instructions.
        2. +1
          April 3 2020 14: 22
          if 80% of the population is ill?

          If 80% of the population falls ill in a year, then the United States will cease to exist as a single state and how many people will die while calculating by arithmetic calculations. But it’s absolutely certain that life support systems will collapse if a quarter of a billion people fall ill in America. After that, mortality will jump up to 10% in Italy, and 25 MILLION will die accordingly. This is an estimate from below.
          In general, your question about a spherical horse, such a forecast of 80% is negligible.
  8. -3
    April 2 2020 19: 24
    "Today in the American edition of the Daily Beast came the material of columnists James La Porta and Spencer Ackerman" Who is Spencer Ackerman? The last name is interesting ... Trump recently dismissed Alexander Vindman ... Maybe Ackerman = Vindman?
    1. 0
      April 2 2020 20: 29
      Quote: Tank jacket
      .Can Ackerman = Windman?

      maybe Woodman? then it takes a completely different turn! laughing
      1. -1
        April 2 2020 20: 48
        Or maybe Soros? Then all the revs?
        1. -4
          April 2 2020 21: 28
          Or maybe Soros? Then all the revs?
          Tank jacket (Ruslan) How old are you? bully I just want a table "Extraterrestrial"Superimpose feel Well, there’s how much more to find out. And all that. God forbid, even resetting to zero laughing drinks
          1. -2
            April 2 2020 21: 29
            How old are you? drinks I used to think you were going to kill me ...
            By the way, did someone see Insurgent use your style ... Just a different flag? Why not punished for?
            1. -5
              April 2 2020 21: 34
              In the color of recent events. Even I don’t know to brag or complain. I'm talking about this common reptile coronavirus. lol
              1. -2
                April 2 2020 21: 37
                I am already 42 ... And you?
                1. -6
                  April 2 2020 21: 44
                  Quote: Tank jacket
                  I am already 42 ... And you?
                  I’m thinking
                  about a “missed” warning regarding the possible consequences of the spread of coronavirus.
                  And so that they don’t turn off to gee-gee later. "Immortal" our "hands-on drivers" Oh, just do not need for the sky-high Kremlin ones. fool On the verge of enemies. If not purebred enemies without fool Although fool This is worse than the enemy.
                  1. -2
                    April 2 2020 21: 53
                    Well, if in our opinion in Russian, then it's time to press the fifth point ... It's good to shy away
                    Special Forces is working.
                    1. -5
                      April 2 2020 21: 59
                      Quote: Tank jacket
                      Well, if in our opinion in Russian, then it's time to press the fifth point ... It's good to shy away
                      Special Forces is working.

                      Well, the fact that the special forces work can only guess bully . That's why he is special forces. But the kumpol is very restrained by these very arrogant gentlemen or comrades. Everything is within the law. Yes hi
                      1. 0
                        April 2 2020 22: 35
                        Well, the special forces can only work ...
                  2. -2
                    April 2 2020 23: 31
                    How old are you?
                  3. -2
                    April 2 2020 23: 33
                    Observer?
          2. -3
            April 2 2020 23: 19
            I'm watching are you worried about the US military? Do you think they can stir up the orange with us ...? Toilet paper your ... Dumb
            Wrap ... Even our help was sent to you ... In a big plane ... You wrap around ..
            While ... Vasya is waiting ... To kiss you ... So ... In passing ... We usually like that ... You ... In passing ...
          3. -2
            April 2 2020 23: 32
            How old are you?
          4. -2
            April 2 2020 23: 36
            Do you want to know and voice here? So for fun. You are not a woman. Sorry...
  9. +1
    April 2 2020 19: 32
    The Americans somewhat approached the approach to such information. Although assuming that the main goal of capitalism should be profit, then the silence of the authorities is understandable ..............
  10. +3
    April 2 2020 19: 32
    Was the test tube broken?
  11. -1
    April 2 2020 21: 18
    Trump Fires Nishebrods from "CIA and National Intelligence Director's Office declined to comment." Give me a rearrangement ...
    Such useless people in the CIA ....
    Even win dumb against such losers.
    Where is the old school? Ugh ... negative
    Classic fire ar ...
    I suspect that the next Lieberman will leave the service ... Or Ackerman? Not important... wassat
    Solid .... mana wassat
  12. +2
    April 2 2020 22: 08
    Do you think that in the states there are no normal analysts left, they simply do not listen to them at the top.
    By the way, are you sure that our analysts are listening to us above?
  13. 0
    April 2 2020 22: 20
    Whatever military experts had previously predicted, what is happening in the United States today is extremely perplexing ... both in the civilian and armed forces. The number of deceased just rolls over.
  14. 0
    April 2 2020 22: 43
    Well so the US Army and the special services of this country is not the first time to miss extremely important information.
    After the attacks on Pearl Harbor and September 11, similar information surfaced ....
  15. -1
    April 2 2020 22: 52
    The fact that the American-made coronovirus is no longer doubted by any sane person. With a high probability, the United States will suffer more from its offspring than all other countries in the world. I feel sorry for ordinary Americans, purely Christian. But the United States, as a country - not at all.
    1. -1
      April 3 2020 01: 57
      Quote: Egor53
      no one, from sane people, is in doubt.

      Except sane.
  16. 0
    April 4 2020 17: 06
    frets, we once again influence the elections, again they will show us !!!
  17. 0
    April 4 2020 17: 07
    Quote: Egor53
    The fact that the American-made coronovirus is no longer doubted by any sane person. With a high probability, the United States will suffer more from its offspring than all other countries in the world. I feel sorry for ordinary Americans, purely Christian. But the United States, as a country - not at all.

    you really believe in it, i feel sorry for you!
  18. 0
    April 4 2020 17: 14
    Quote: gsev
    Quote: Alien
    This is 756 people a day from socio-economic disorder,

    This does not refute my data. As far as I know, the population of the USSR began to increase after the expulsion of the Germans from the territories of the USSR occupied by them at the end of 1944. That is, the actions of the Wehrmacht, the SS, the Abwehr and the Gestapo could not do as much harm as the policies of Yeltsin and Gorbachev. And during Putin's time, the situation did not change dramatically. For example, the Spanish epidemic killed 20 million in a year, about 1 million died during World War I. In Russia, about 10 people usually die per day, in the United States, apparently 5000. Today, the mortality rate from the virus in the USA is 12000% of the cases detected. We do not know what percentage of cases were not detected, how mortality will change with overload of the US medical service. One thing can be said, the fate of any country is now in the hands of doctors and the authorities’s readiness to comply with medical instructions.

    don’t carry such rubbish anymore, go to Vika and take a look - how many people died during the famine (when there was nothing to eat - because of the drought) on the Volga, and how many are in the dungeons !!!
    для ленивых: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%93%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4_%D0%B2_%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B6%D1%8C%D0%B5_(1921%E2%80%941922)
  19. 0
    April 4 2020 17: 30
    Quote: lvov_aleksey
    Quote: gsev
    Quote: Alien
    This is 756 people a day from socio-economic disorder,

    This does not refute my data. As far as I know, the population of the USSR began to increase after the expulsion of the Germans from the territories of the USSR occupied by them at the end of 1944. That is, the actions of the Wehrmacht, the SS, the Abwehr and the Gestapo could not do as much harm as the policies of Yeltsin and Gorbachev. And during Putin's time, the situation did not change dramatically. For example, the Spanish epidemic killed 20 million in a year, about 1 million died during World War I. In Russia, about 10 people usually die per day, in the United States, apparently 5000. Today, the mortality rate from the virus in the USA is 12000% of the cases detected. We do not know what percentage of cases were not detected, how mortality will change with overload of the US medical service. One thing can be said, the fate of any country is now in the hands of doctors and the authorities’s readiness to comply with medical instructions.

    don’t carry such rubbish anymore, go to Vika and take a look - how many people died during the famine (when there was nothing to eat - because of the drought) on the Volga, and how many are in the dungeons !!!
    для ленивых: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%93%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4_%D0%B2_%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B6%D1%8C%D0%B5_(1921%E2%80%941922)

    I’ll also add graphics: the birth rate and mortality of the USSR.
    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9D%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5_%D0%A1%D0%A1%D0%A1%D0%A0