The German Die Zeit called the possible causes of high mortality from a coronavirus in Italy

The European Union asked why coronavirus mortality rates in Europe are completely different, and often the difference is many times. The situation in Germany and Italy is given as the most striking example. In the case of Germany, the mortality rate for COVID-19 is at the level of statistical error - about 0,5%, but in Italy this figure yesterday exceeded 10%.

A few more examples: coronavirus mortality in Greece, which is geographically very similar to Italy, is about 2,4%, in Spain, which is also geographically close to Italy, it is already 7,23%.

Recall that it is Italy that continues to maintain sad leadership not only in the number of cases in Europe, but also in the number of deaths. The statistics is as follows: 74,3 thousand cases identified, 7503 - dead.

The reviewers of the German edition of Die Zeit, Helena Erdmann and Linda Fischer, trying to figure out these very different numbers, write:

It is unlikely that we are talking about some kind of virus mutation in Italy, a mutation leading to a high mortality rate. The situation can be explained, perhaps, by the state of medicine. The higher the quality of the services provided, the lower the mortality rate.

The material contains a statement by the epidemiologist from the Helmholtz Center for Infections and Virus Research Berit Lange:

If the healthcare system is significantly overloaded, infected people who would survive under other circumstances could die. Banal things: for example, there are not enough beds, mechanical ventilation devices.

It is noteworthy that this statement was made against the background of an openly delusional publication in one of the liberal Italian newspapers that the Russian military brought to Italy "what is not needed to fight the coronavirus." What is not needed? The same ventilators that are sorely lacking in the clinics of Italian Lombardy?

The German press cites the evidence of the doctors of the Bergamo clinics themselves. One such evidence:

Our hospital has long stepped over all conceivable limits on the admission of patients. It itself has long been infected with the virus, so much so that even the uninfected COVID-19 people who enter here eventually become infected and die. There is no special assistance for elderly patients. They die without her - without a chance of salvation.

Noteworthy comments by German readers:

A lot of older people - maybe just accidental bad luck? Maybe when we carry out the testing, it turns out that almost all of us have it and it was ...

Simply, no one takes into account such an important circumstance as the mentality of Italians, when several generations of the same family live together, in the same house.

Comments

[Amateur]

why coronavirus mortality rates in Europe are completely different,

And who can sanely explain or at least suggest how Prince Charles could get infected? He probably doesn't ride the subway and doesn't go shopping. And the service staff is probably regularly checked by their "sanitary and epidemiological supervision".

[Doctor]

And can anyone reasonably explain, or at least suppose, how Prince Charles could get infected?

From Prince of Monaco Albert. They crossed at social events.

[Dmitry Potapov]

Sexually!

[nznz]

someone coughing him on a member?

[Stone]

What a jerk you are.

[Varyag_0711]

Arzt (Yuri)
From Prince of Monaco Albert. They crossed at social events.

And the prince of Monaco from whom, from the homeless?

[Amateur]

They crossed at social events.

I doubt that Charles Albert I la

[Jack O'Neill]

It's hard to look at lips that you can't kiss.

[Doctor]

I doubt that Charles Albert I la

It is known, however, that in mid-March, Prince Charles took part in the WaterAid event in London, where he sat with Prince Albert II of Monaco, who, without any symptoms last week, passed a test for a new type of coronavirus, which turned out to be positive.

[alexmach]

And can anyone reasonably explain, or at least suppose, how Prince Charles could get infected?

First of all, what the hell is the difference.

He probably doesn’t go on the subway and doesn’t go shopping

Well, yes, tell me not in contact with people

And the service staff is probably regularly checked by their "sanitary and epidemiological supervision".

It’s very vryatli, I don’t know how it is in Britain, but in general only those with symptoms are tested. No one especially tests healthy, moreover, if a person is infected but the symptoms have not yet manifested, then it is not a fact that the test will give a positive result. Well, even if you check his staff, who can check the staff of all his friends and contacts, his wife there, children, friends, subordinates? It is simply not possible.

[Vol4ara]

Quote: Amateur

why coronavirus mortality rates in Europe are completely different,

And who can sanely explain or at least suggest how Prince Charles could get infected? He probably doesn't ride the subway and doesn't go shopping. And the service staff is probably regularly checked by their "sanitary and epidemiological supervision".

The crown was brought to Russia not by metro, but by air from Italy, and its representatives brought above the middle class. Who can afford to drink coffee in Italy, and go to bed in Japan, they transported it around the world

[NEXUS]

Quote: Amateur

And can anyone reasonably explain, or at least suppose, how Prince Charles could get infected?

I didn’t wash my hands after going for chikushka to the boutiques.

[210ox]

Maybe there Ulya Suprun is already hosting?

[Andrei Nikolaevich]

Ulya Suprun is a beautiful woman! This is the choice of the oldest people. And she treats- wonderful- embroidered shirts.)

[Mountain shooter]

Quote: 210ox

Maybe there Ulya Suprun is already hosting?

There are such Ul - every second one, not counting the first ... these are managers, not doctors ... the managers of finances that society allocates for medicine ... Money is not small, the temptation is great.

[knn54]

In Italy, one out of every three residents is over 65. The average age of Italian patients who die from coronavirus is (La Stampa) 79,5 years.
And as the Turkish citizen used to say: "Don't teach me how to live, you better help me financially."

[Avior]

it is more logical to compare the ratio of recovered and deceased

Germany
Confirmed: 39
Deaths: 222
Recovered: 3
Active: 35

for 15 recovered one dead

Italy
Confirmed: 74
Deaths: 7
Recovered: 9
Active: 57

and Austria for example

Austria
Confirmed: 6
Deaths: 42
Recovered: 112
Active: 5

2 recovered, one died
Switzerland

Switzerland
Confirmed: 11
Deaths: 165
Recovered: 131
Active: 10

there are more dead than recovered
but in fact mortality can be accurately determined after the pandemic

[Liam]

Quote: Avior

more logical

It is more logical to compare the moment the epidemic begins. In different countries, there are different stages of the development of the epidemic.
Chronologically, the epidemic began in this sequence — Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and the World Bank.
Compare the numbers of the dead in this sequence and everything will fall into place.
In Italy, in fact, the 4th day in a row according to the infected, the trend is down. The number of new infected is declining. For everyone else, it is growing

[Volodin]

Quote: Liam

The number of new infections is decreasing. For all others, it is growing

Well, that means that in a week they will announce to everyone, as in China: "Italy coped with the coronavirus, everyone fraternizes, kisses, they organize mass festivities in the squares." Zomboyaschik and the trend "one woman said", he is so ... Sometimes it seems that to defeat the epidemic in the world, you just need to turn off the TV and smartphone ... for a few days ...

[Liam]

Quote: Volodin

Zomboyaschik and the trend "one woman said"

I suppose for you such a concept as an epidemiological curve sounds like a shamanic spell.
How many wonderful discoveries are to us ...

[Volodin]

And I believe that you, with your "epidemiological curve" and other "interesting" (well known to you) comments on VO is not accidental ...

Yes, yes ... and experience, the son of difficult mistakes ...

[A.TOR]

You are cool

[Volodin]

And throwing his homeland
now so busy
Liam Broadcasts around the world:
In Bergamo - Dolce Vita.

He is Euroassigned
I felt on myself
But at night, still
Three letters - "fe-es-be" ...

[reservist]

Quote: Volodin

In Bergamo - Dolce Vita.

in Bergamo, even the local crematorium can no longer cope ...

[Ka-52]

Sometimes it seems that to defeat the epidemic in the world you just need to turn off the TV and smartphone ... for a few days ...

you would better put your impression to hell. How the coronavirus is defeated is a real example - China. Severe restrictive measures, mobilization of all resources. No sympathy like the opinion of some here on VO: "why endure hardships, let's better cancel the entire quarantine? And so the price of beer and whitefish has gone up!"

[bk316]

Italy is actually the 4th day in a row according to the infected-trend down.

About two MEGA EXPERT gathered.

it is more logical to compare the ratio of recovered and deceased

THIS IS NOT MORTALITY THIS SOME LIKE OF MORTALITY. But no one thinks so.

In Italy, it’s actually the 4th day in a row according to the infected-trend down

A trend is the averaging of a set of values ​​using some mathematical function.
Well, what function should be averaged so that the number of infected goes down?
SECOND (SECOND CARL !!!) derivative became negative.
In general, averaging over 4 points is even more a lie than statistics.

[alexmach]

Well, what function should be averaged so that the number of infected goes down?

Summing up?

[bk316]

Summing up?

Humor appreciated.
For non-mathematicians. Whatever function is if you average it by summing. SHE WILL NEVER GO DOWN.
By the way, for some reason this is done on many sites, displaying the number of PATIENTS, and not the number of PATIENTS.
According to such information, the PRC was in the first place until yesterday (and here they were overtaken by the United States yesterday), although they had already dealt with the epidemic there long ago.

[alexmach]

There, nevertheless, as far as I understand it, it’s not about the number of sick people or even about the number of sick people, but about the number of new sick people.

[alexmach]

In Italy, it’s actually the 4th day in a row according to the infected-trend down

Of course. With such a quarantine for such a long time.

[tomket]

Quote: Liam

The number of new infections is decreasing. For all others, it is growing

Come on you. Fairy tales told at the beginning of the epidemic, what a wonderful medicine in Italy. How wonderful everything is. When the general pestilence began there, you began to tell what older people spoil it, they say. And so everything is fine there. No errors were made. Now everything is wonderful again. Some trends have come up with ...

[bk316]

what a wonderful medicine in Italy.

Once again for the dull.
Medicine in Italy is not bad. But medicine in this case has nothing to do with it.
Insurance medicine is not for a pandemic.
Health is important here. It turned out to be simply not in Italy.
If you (I wasn’t for you personally, therefore, with a capital letter) were interested in these issues, you would have found statements by European officials (and by the way ours too) that health care is not needed, enough medicine, that health care is for the communists and not for the free world .

[Oyo Sarkazmi]

There is one significant nuance - household. In Italy, there is no general heating in houses, and by spring the walls are covered with a thick layer of black mold. In the United States, with the appearance of black mold, there is only one recipe: to burn a house. In Italy - live for centuries.
Coronavirus itself may have been circulating since 2018 - a vaper disease. Then one doctor seemed to have hinted that it looked like a coronavirus, but they shouted at him - insurance companies to unfasten real pneumonia many times more. The second outbreak was among the Japanese in Honolulu, September 2019. At that time, almost everyone was ill in our family. For about forty years I did not know that breathing can be painful. Symptoms are similar to those described.
The Chinese were not a hotbed. They were the first to reveal it, rubbing their nose to all the laboratories of the world.
Last: The USA has on its territory all 5 strains of the virus. One is unique, and is not a descendant of Wuhan.

[Alex Justice]

Compare the numbers of the dead in this sequence and everything will fall into place.

The numbers are here:
https://parsonstwins.000webhostapp.com/?fbclid=IwAR0RKyuV3UHi-eyDrkSYIzUdAqc8mDwgPzFdn5V9ZLTT82qyc0jx4y96JTw

[16329]

At the expense of infection in hospitals, for Germany this is normal practice, I myself have always been infected in Germany in hospitals, once at all with chickenpox (at 51, chickenpox, an unforgettable experience)
Therefore, in Italy, hospitals certainly become breeding grounds for infection, in general, in an epidemic, a hospital is just a typhoid hut.
The Italians need to sort out the infected as wounded in the war and allocate accordingly, treat the mild form at home, in the hospital - cases are more complicated, concentrate on them, and critical conditions, unfortunately, separate In special. Blocks, and disinfection

[Gardamir]

So there aren’t enough ventilators in Lombardy? But in Russia there is an excess, once they are transported to Italy.

[Liam]

Quote: Gardamir

So there aren’t enough ventilators in Lombardy? But in Russia there is an excess, once they are transported to Italy.

In itself, mechanical ventilation is nothing. You need a disfigured place in the hospital.

. Mechanical ventilation is one of the methods of resuscitation aid and works in conjunction with other complex methods. To perform mechanical ventilation, you need a huge number of different devices - oxygen sources, apparatus for cleaning the lungs and trachea, bronchoscopes to see the lungs, monitors, to monitor the patient and change the parameters of mechanical ventilation, and much more.
There is such a thing as resuscitation bed. This is not a bed for a patient in itself, but a large complex of stationary and mobile equipment to treat one patient

[Svetlana]

As already said, the number of devices in itself is nothing. We need more paramedics, staff. And these are not janitors, you can’t train them in two days. And it was they who came to Italy.
Personally, I see only one problem, the language. The Italians still do not speak Russian.

[reservist]

Russian-speaking nurses meet there ...
though I don’t know how much ...

[Thrifty]

The main thing is that you are actually ready for a mass epidemic! We in the Rostov region already have statements by some leaders that a city is not ready for the influx of patients with coronovirus in general! Like, there is nothing, and there will be nowhere to place patients. ..

[Sancho_SP]

You must first clarify the sources of these statistics.

A much simpler explanation is that either many ill, but survivors, are simply not taken into account or are suitable for SARS, or all those who die from cardiopulmonary causes (and this is death "from old age") are recorded as victims of the virus.

[Chaldon48]

In Italy, in some small towns there are problems with drinking water and sewage, which, combined with a hot climate, leads to an accelerated spread of infection

[A. Privalov]

Italian newspaper "La Stampa":

80% of the humanitarian supplies that Russia sent to Italy to fight COVID-19 turned out to be "absolutely useless or of little use." Russian aid consists of equipment for the disinfection of territories and similar special equipment, which Italy does not need.

People have worried about you, shared that they themselves will soon need it too, say politely: "thank you" and be healthy, no! Rudeness is natural!

[Thrifty]

Halts -Rad to see the site! This is not rudeness, this bestiality! And, a political order, to stand Russia in a bad light!

[cniza]

Soon, time will judge everything and put it in its place, let's see what is needed, when it is needed and whether it is necessary at all.

[A. Privalov]

Quote: Thrifty

And, a political order, to stand Russia in a bad light!

Mutually!
Are you accustomed to the fact that journalists always work on someone else's order - either the authorities, or the opposition, or generally some average anonymous "enemies" (you can insert whatever you want). In fact, an order is no longer needed here. Cunning journalists around the world have long had an unjustifiably great influence on the minds of people and have become an independent force and do whatever they want. Not for nothing they are called "the fourth estate". The first, second and third powers are, respectively, the legislative, executive and judicial branches of government.

[Thrifty]

Halts -the most correct version of their name "the fifth column"!

[A. Privalov]

The Fifth Column, by definition, is political groupings that secretly or openly oppose the main policy of the state.
If it were yours Journalists in your country, then you could call them that. In this case, these are Italian magazines and none of their columns touch me or you.

[16329]

Of course, they work in accordance with the editorial policy, which is set by the structures that finance and support publications.
There are no independent “quirky magazines” in any countries
This is normal and logical.

[NICK111]

Poke on hand giving? Dear A.Privalov and Lean, 100% agree with you!
Heal yourself and die yourself, Italiano Vero.

[Chaldon48]

They don’t look at the gift horse in the mouth, let them rejoice that there is such a disinterested country in the world, Russia

[Svetlana]

One likely reason is a couple of weeks backward. That is, if Italy is already at its peak, the rest are still on the rise.

[Azimuth]

In Italy, the process of infecting people through honey has begun. staff. Plus a large influx of elderly patients. The doctors have been outraged by the outbreak, and now there are not enough personnel. So much for the interest ...

[reservist]

Germans seem to have three times as many infectious beds per capita as Italy
it is possible that the Italians delayed the introduction of quarantine and, as a result, received "queues" for beds in intensive care units ...
they also have a decent percentage of infected medical staff, whose presence in these conditions is also critical
another small example - the Germans closed, including kindergartens, but for the doctors they allocated / paid a nanny at the expense of the treasury, the Italians do not seem to have such a thing ... probably from a multitude of such "little things" this or that result is formed ...

[Liam]

Quote: reservist

Italians don't seem to have that ...

1000 euros per month per nanny were allocated to health workers. For the remaining categories, 600.

Quote: reservist

Italians hesitated with the introduction of quarantine

Italians were the first to quarantine in Europe.

Quote: reservist

three more

This is the average temperature in the hospital. The number of resuscitation places in a particular infection center is important. How many empty spaces 300 km from the outbreak is insignificant. When the lungs fail in patients, they are not very transportable.
Who has milder forms of pneumonia or has already had a crisis and is transportable, they are transported to other regions and not only. In Germany, every day, patients from Italy are received

[reservist]

Quote: Liam

Italians were the first to quarantine in Europe.

they started to enter from March 8, when there were already more than 300 dead and more than 7 thousand identified ...
those. "delayed" - this is about February 21, when the first deceased appeared ...

Quote: Liam

This is the average temperature in the hospital. It is important the number of places in intensive care at a particular infection site.

who argues, but it is unlikely that the Germans have all resuscitation beds in Berlin ...
respectively, for sure they just do not have "queues" in intensive care ...

[Liam]

Quote: reservist

started like

The first death in Italy was on February 21, then the first cases of infected Italians appeared. In the zones where they appeared, Codogno, Vo (in only 10 settlements), quarantine with roadblocks and a ban on entry / exit was introduced on February 23. a week as there are no new cases by the way.
A week later, around the first days of March, it became clear that there were much more zones and began to enforce quarantine en masse in different cities and entire regions. March 11, across the country

[Liam]

Quote: reservist

but hardly

But if in at least one German region the number and concentration of those infected is like in Italy, there will be exactly the same problems and numbers. This is already happening in Spain, France. The Germans later started and they already have Italian, Spanish experience and can understand what there are bottlenecks and what to do

[32363]

Quote: reservist

who argues, but it is unlikely that the Germans have all resuscitation beds in Berlin ...
respectively, for sure they just do not have "queues" in intensive care ...

not yet, although Italy’s troubled regions are just 200-300 km from Germany’s borders, I’m only 600 km from Venice, and I live in the center of Bavaria, but we rarely see a masked person, we don’t have food, we don’t panic, we live and we’re quarantine measures as the situation requires.

[IL-64]

I know one city near Moscow, where many people go abroad to work and where many foreigners come for periods ranging from weeks to years. So, from December to February, many residents suffered from what they called SARS, influenza and community-acquired pneumonia with symptoms very similar to coronovirus. There are currently no coronovirus infected. Maybe many have already been ill with them, some in mild, some in severe form?

[Mavrikiy]

the Russian military brought to Italy "what is not needed to fight the coronavirus."

Well, take to the EU, from the Germans and the French, what you need.
Tomorrow, we’ll be billed for help.

[32363]

because the Italians are noble stars and even kiss when they greet each other

[NICK111]

Quote: NICK111

Poke on hand giving? Dear A.Privalov and Lean, 100% agree with you!
Heal and die yourself, Italiano Vero.

[Butchcassidy]

The question is in the demographic structure. In Italy there are simply a lot of old people, that’s all.

[Angrybeard]

The number of infected is similar but the percentage is completely different .. and the elderly in Germany to fig. Here is something else! And the form of infection, the virus seeps through quarantines, although it seems it should not. You need to search.

[A. Privalov]

With Italians, everything is clear. Despite all the measures taken by the state, indifferent citizens simply did not comply with quarantine.
What this led to - everyone knows.
But will this serve at least one of the present lesson?