Financial crises come more often: about the causes of the new economic reality


On Tuesday, the Government and the Central Bank of Russia issued a joint statement on their operational measures against the economic impact of coronavirus and volatility in global financial and commodity markets.


The world foresees a global recession


The support of financial stability of industries and sectors of the economy, population and regional budgets is promised. A decision was made to defer tax payments for the sectors affected by the crisis, to provide them with guarantees for prolonging and deferring loans. Existing lending programs, etc. will also be expanded.

The Government and the Central Bank are making a joint statement for the first time, which indicates the seriousness of the situation, the trigger of which was the pandemic of the new coronavirus. Many associate it with the turbulent movement in the stock and currency markets, which can move the world into the abyss of a new economic crisis.

This was stated by the chief economic sovereign of Russia, Chairman of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin. He did not rule out that Russia and the world were on the verge of a new crisis. “The current crisis may turn out to be quite sensitive,” Kudrin predicts and finds its main difference from the crisis of 2008-2009. “Then China was the driver of global economic growth, and now it itself has been hit hard by the coronavirus.”

On Monday, the current situation in the global economy was compared by the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday. At a press conference in Tokyo, he expressed the opinion that the events of recent days are not like the “shock of Lehman Brothers Holdings,” as the world economic crisis of 2008-2009 is called in Japan.

“There are fears of low economic growth over time,” said Kuroda. “But as soon as coronavirus infection decreases in different countries, the economic situation will begin to recover.” Judging by the experience of China and South Korea, the epidemic is temporary. ”

The optimism of the Japanese banker is not shared by other economists. So, the Vice President of the European Central Bank, Vitor Constantio, bluntly says: “We are moving towards a global recession. The necessary measures that are being taken to curb the spread of the virus will inevitably lead to this. ”

The Independent publication estimates American economist Jesse Colombo. The one who was the first to recognize the inflated "bubble" in the US real estate market and warned of an impending economic disaster, which had become the crisis of 2008-2009.

Now Colombo warns the world about a powerful financial crisis. “We were already going to a recession before anyone heard about the coronavirus,” the economist noted and pointed to the existing “bubbles” in the European real estate markets, American stocks and others that could burst at any time.

The grimaces of modern economics


Jesse Colombo’s forecast is worth considering, not only because of his correct prediction of the past crisis. Estimates of the economist come from their realities of the modern economy, and it has changed a lot in the new century. The classical form of capital formation based on commodity production is no longer so relevant today.

The world of economics is now ruled by money. They became a derivative of securities, various kinds of debt and insurance obligations. All this is resold, creating new capital, very far from real production.

According to a similar scheme, for example, quotes for oil prices are being formed now. The market was filled with futures that allow you to buy oil in a month or two at a pre-negotiated price. Moreover, it is not a fact that upon reaching the deadline indicated in the documents they will be implemented into a real product. Most likely, exchange speculators will resell them again, for the benefit of themselves.

Experts say that debt obligations on the main exchange commodities (hydrocarbons, gold, metals, etc.) and documents like futures are five to ten times higher than the actual volumes of production of these products. This is how the very financial “bubbles” are formed, which the world of Jesse Colombo now warns about. New economic reality.

One big permanent crisis


This circumstance has changed the nature and nature of crises. If earlier the overproduction of goods created problems for the economy, now it is the growth of obligations unsecured by the goods. It appeared brightly in the crisis of 2008-2009 and threatens to repeat itself again.

Although, what does it mean to repeat? Nobel laureate in economics Joseph Stiglitz believes that that crisis has not ended. Monetary measures taken by governments and banks of Western countries only drove the disease deeper. Having bought out unsecured debts of companies and credit institutions under the so-called quantitative easing program, they, in fact, saved the capital of greedy financiers. They were not allowed to go bankrupt, as is usually the case in a crisis.

As a result, the total volume of debt in different segments increased, according to Jesse Colombo, by almost 100 trillion dollars and approached 260 trillion. Now all this block of debts is putting pressure on the world economy, threatening to destroy it once again.

This did not happen so often before. Initially, crises came with a period of fifty years. The industrial revolution shortened the period for the overproduction of goods to 25 years. Financial speculation began to create problems for the economy once every ten years. Now the gloomy prospect of a large permanent crisis has emerged.

Experts believe that Russia will cope with these problems better than other countries. On Wednesday, Renaissance Capital analysts made their forecast. About him reported RBC agency. “The reserves accumulated in the sovereign National Wealth Fund (NWF) will be enough to cover budget expenditures for five years even with oil of $ 20 per barrel (the price of Brent oil fell below $ 25 per barrel),” the agency estimates Renaissance Capital.

At this price, the economy will slow down by 0,8%, inflation can grow to 7,5%. Russia has already encountered such parameters in the past decade. Therefore, it is not difficult to imagine the scale of possible problems. It was worse.

Only ten days have passed since Black Monday (March 9). It is too early to build alarmist forecasts. It is possible that the West will find a way to delay the collapse of its rampant financiers. However, such a delay will not save the world economy from the burdensome load of gigantic debt obligations. But the fact remains: the frequency of financial crises is in direct proportion to the desire of speculators to warm their hands at sharp changes in quotations and the desire of global fraudsters to cover up previously committed financial crimes with the crisis.
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  1. Arlen 19 March 2020 08: 44 New
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    Financial crises come more often: about the causes of the new economic reality

    The answer is simple: the causes of modern financial crises are the insatiable thirst for profit of modern capitalists.
    1. SRC P-15 19 March 2020 08: 56 New
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      Quote: Arlen
      The answer is simple: the causes of modern financial crises are the insatiable thirst for profit of modern capitalists.

      The insatiable thirst for profit has always accompanied the capitalists!
      1. DMB 75 19 March 2020 09: 00 New
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        Just recently, thirst has become stronger and stronger. Many, many, and even so much. You can’t fill the bottomless tub with water.
        1. Stas157 19 March 2020 09: 21 New
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          Experts believe that Russia will cope with these problems better than other countries.

          Experts are professionals from God for sure! We are clearly observing this! The wooden exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange is already 80,87.

          Our "experts" manage to say that everything is in order with the economy, while the exchange rate of the national currency falls almost like in default.
          1. Nastia makarova 19 March 2020 10: 13 New
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            it’s profitable for them, they want to bring the course to 90
      2. Honest Citizen 19 March 2020 09: 06 New
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        300% profit - and do not care how. Marx was right.
      3. Yrec 19 March 2020 09: 10 New
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        The current global financial model is based on unlimited trust in the dollar. And with him, it’s happening like in that joke about "Gentlemen take a word and then I got a card!" We are at the bottom of this financial pyramid and will be all the time on the choke. Our economy is scanty and all we can do is provide military and resource assistance to China if it decides to remake this system for itself. But no one guarantees that China will not do with us then what they usually do with rubber product No. 2 after use. So I see from my sofa wassat
      4. lucul 19 March 2020 11: 29 New
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        The insatiable thirst for profit has always accompanied the capitalists!

        As world practice shows, the Jewish pogroms ended when the interest on the loan was sharply limited.
        So here - create the possibility of the impossibility of financial bubbles - and crises decrease sharply. No need to take the word for gentlemen - you need to demand confirmation of their words.
    2. Honest Citizen 19 March 2020 08: 57 New
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      Quote: Arlen
      causes of modern financial crises

      All the reasons are that world debt exceeds global GDP. That's all.
      1. SRC P-15 19 March 2020 09: 08 New
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        Quote: Honest Citizen
        All the reasons are that world debt exceeds global GDP. That's all.

        No, not everything! Some countries (I won’t point a finger) are parasitic in other states and, interestingly, it is their state debt that is the largest.
        1. Honest Citizen 19 March 2020 09: 16 New
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          Quote: SRC P-15
          Some countries (I won’t point a finger) are parasitic in other states and, interestingly, it is their state debt that is the largest.

          It's not about the parasitism of one over the other. The point is in production. And in consumerism. Someone is eating in seven sips, and someone is injecting a bowl of corn.
          But considering the average temperature in the hospital - everyone owes everything. Those. devoured more than done, and devoured on credit, which are interest. And, as I understand it, nobody is going to repay loans to anyone.
          1. SRC P-15 19 March 2020 09: 23 New
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            Quote: Honest Citizen
            And, as I understand it, nobody is going to repay loans to anyone.

            I'm afraid everything goes to the fact that it is on the one who injects a bowl of corn and will bear the burden of repaying these loans.
            1. Honest Citizen 19 March 2020 09: 24 New
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              Quote: SRC P-15
              I'm afraid everything goes to the fact that it is on the one who injects a bowl of corn and will bear the burden of repaying these loans.

              Well this is generally a classic of the genre.
              You are to blame for the fact that I want to eat (s)
              1. Lexus 20 March 2020 00: 04 New
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                You are to blame for the fact that I want to eat (s)

                Do not "row"? So Face Cheated By Hooligans. hi
      2. kjhg 19 March 2020 09: 16 New
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        Quote: Honest Citizen
        All the reasons are that world debt exceeds global GDP.

        The causes of crises are financial bubbles, which are growing at a faster pace relative to production growth. And production growth is slowing down the sluggish growth in people's purchasing power. In fact, there is overproduction of goods in the world. The main trade battles are over the consumer market. Roughly speaking, it is not enough just to produce a very good car or a frying pan. It is also necessary to find a market for their sales. But these markets are overflowing with offers, demand growth is almost absent. But this does not stop the capitalists. They want to make big profits and multiply funds. So they have to create more and more financial bubbles for this.
        Experts believe that Russia will cope with these problems better than other countries.
        Does anyone really believe in this nonsense? Russia has always suffered the most during crises. And the current crisis threatens for the citizens of Russia to overshadow all the previous ones in scale and consequences. Stocks will only help alleviate the crisis for the owners of Russia at its beginning, no more. And for citizens, no one is going to do this.
        1. Nastia makarova 19 March 2020 10: 16 New
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          nonsense that the crisis that threatens us !!! our people have been poor for a long time, they have nothing to lose, they live from zp to zp, there are no accumulations, so what kind of crisis ?????
          1. kjhg 19 March 2020 10: 22 New
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            Quote: Nastia Makarova
            our people have been poor for a long time, they have nothing to lose, they live from zp to zp, there are no accumulations, so what kind of crisis ?????

            There is always something to lose. It's one thing when living poorly, from paycheck to paycheck, you can buy fruit once a week, take your child to the cinema once a month, etc. Another thing is when you can’t afford it, and every day you have to cook potatoes or cheap, sticky pasta, or cabbage soup without meat for food. Do you catch the difference?
            1. Nastia makarova 19 March 2020 11: 12 New
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              there is almost no difference !!! if you have sn 250 or 300 dollars you don’t feel the difference
              1. Honest Citizen 19 March 2020 12: 25 New
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                Quote: Nastia Makarova
                there is almost no difference !!! if you have sn 250 or 300 dollars you don’t feel the difference

                What did the guarantor say yesterday? What according METHODOLOGY calculation (and I want to say the training manual) all those with a salary of 17 rubles or more - the middle class. So we are waiting for new taxes.
                1. Nastia makarova 19 March 2020 12: 49 New
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                  people already do not listen to the guarantor)))) new taxes will not be paid
    3. Hypatius 19 March 2020 09: 16 New
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      The answer is simple: the causes of modern financial crises are the insatiable thirst for profit of modern capitalists.
      It’s more correct to say bankers. Money-commodity-money does not give inflation and debts that exceed the value of the planet. Money -% - money, still derivatives and second derivatives of money, this is what nullifies the results of labor and the life of generations. The capitalist pays wages, taxes, develops production. The banker does not even pay VAT, and still tyrit general government money. Without banks, money should rise in price, as under Stalin, and not get cheaper. But capitalists can be tolerated with a progressive tax scale.
      1. Hypatius 19 March 2020 09: 27 New
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        From an interview with G.W. Rosenthal, 1976:
        When we raised the issue of industry, Mr. Rosenthal perked up:

        “We found an excellent solution on how to split the society within ourselves, declaring war on classes and contrasting workers with company leaders.” This is another of our greatest deceptions, because in reality there is a triangle rather than two sides. In modern industry, the capital that we Jews represent is an independent force and its peak. And the goy workers and leadership (there may also be goy) are at the base of this triangle. They are constantly pitted against each other, and they do not have time to look up and see the top, from which all problems arise.
    4. Svarog 19 March 2020 09: 17 New
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      Quote: Arlen
      Financial crises come more often: about the causes of the new economic reality

      The answer is simple: the causes of modern financial crises are the insatiable thirst for profit of modern capitalists.

      If we were not so dependent on oil, then these crises would not be particularly noticeable
      1. Ryaruav 19 March 2020 09: 48 New
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        I agree with you, as long as the country has a raw material economy, they will have Russia as they want
    5. atalef 19 March 2020 09: 18 New
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      Quote: Arlen
      Financial crises come more often: about the causes of the new economic reality

      The answer is simple: the causes of modern financial crises are the insatiable thirst for profit of modern capitalists.

      Globalization and open borders.
      1. IS-80_RVGK2 19 March 2020 22: 09 New
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        And global warming is also to blame, and reptilians from Nibiru.
  2. Loess 19 March 2020 08: 49 New
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    “The current crisis may turn out to be quite sensitive,” Kudrin predicts and finds its main difference from the crisis of 2008-2009.
    As far as I remember, the crisis of 2008 hit us in the 2010th. Prior to this, only banks were in a fever, ordinary people “covered” two years after the crisis began. Those. two years somehow managed to restrain the impact of the crisis. I hope this time we took into account the previous mistake and will be able to avoid the negative consequences much longer.
    Experts believe that Russia will cope with these problems better than other countries
    1. Honest Citizen 19 March 2020 08: 56 New
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      Quote: Less
      As far as I remember, the crisis of 2008 hit us in the 2010th.

      So drink pills for sclerosis. The crisis of 2008 hit in 2008. Many metallurgical giants extinguished blast furnaces! If you are unfamiliar with metallurgy - for you this is just a sound. And those who are familiar are in a state of shock. For they know that to extinguish a blast furnace is then to rebuild it.
      But you were fine until 2010.
      Are you the owner of an intimate haircut salon, that everything was so good with you?
      1. Loess 19 March 2020 09: 08 New
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        Quote: Honest Citizen
        Are you the owner of an intimate haircut salon, that everything was so good with you?

        No. Are you a client of such salons? Have you visited them before 2010?
        Quote: Honest Citizen
        Many metallurgical giants

        I am not a metallurgical giant. I just work in production.
        I'm talking about what happened.
        1. Honest Citizen 19 March 2020 09: 10 New
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          Quote: Less
          I am not a metallurgical giant. I just work in production.

          And what, let me ask you, does your production produce what its crisis of 2008 covered only in 2010? Do you release brake fluid?
          1. Loess 19 March 2020 09: 16 New
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            Quote: Honest Citizen
            And so, let me ask, does your production produce

            I allow it. Uninterruptible power systems mainly.
            Quote: Honest Citizen
            Do you release brake fluid?

            Does your ideological position not allow that it is possible to produce something more complex in Russia?

            PS I’ll supplement the commentary so that you don’t think that I’m talking only about myself: I just remember how it sounded in the media every day - crisis, crisis, and in conversations with people (not just acquaintances), everyone said that they don’t feel the crisis and that all this applies only to bankers, hucksters and oligarchs.
            1. Honest Citizen 19 March 2020 09: 19 New
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              Quote: Less
              Uninterruptible power systems mainly.

              And you want to say that there was a steady demand for BEPs until 2010? Although it’s possible, it’s a market for services, if you look quite fundamentally.
              By the way, components in 2009 did not rise in price?
              1. Loess 19 March 2020 09: 25 New
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                Quote: Honest Citizen
                And you want to say that on BEPS

                There was and even was a moment when I had to seriously strain to fulfill all the contracts.
                Quote: Honest Citizen
                By the way, components in 2009 did not rise in price?

                I don’t know, I’m not related to financial matters, pure techie, unless I accidentally hear a conversation about financial matters.
                I added a little comment there, refresh look. And then, I suppose, you got the impression that I am talking exclusively about myself.
                1. Honest Citizen 19 March 2020 10: 50 New
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                  Quote: Less
                  I don’t know, I’m not related to financial matters, pure techie,

                  Quote: Less
                  There was and even was a moment when I had to seriously strain to fulfill all the contracts.

                  In 2008, I was also a pure techie. In metallurgy. And I remember very well how the blast furnaces were extinguished. And then they just figured it out HOW MUCH the dough was lost on refractories - everyone cried.
                  And I remember very well the beginning of 2008. Kudrin: “Russia is a safe haven,” Putin and Medvedev: “Business is acquiring a social orientation.”
                  And when it all started - I also remember how to cut departments. I remember saying in October 2008: "You are on vacation at your own expense until March, but if someone believes that you do not have to go to work, you can leave of your own free will!"
                  Well, lucky for you, you “slipped” the crisis of 2008 - but there are only a few such companies. But the bulk of people have lost, and many are not only the place of work.
  3. Mitroha 19 March 2020 08: 50 New
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    All of these experts and forecasters need to introduce financial responsibility for their forecasts. Wangyu laughing the quality of examinations will increase, and the number of experts will decrease.
    And then as a broom, everyone waving with a smart look.
  4. apro 19 March 2020 08: 52 New
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    The crisis is with the population. The owners of the money have a holiday with bonuses. They earn profit ... and they paint the losses on the others. Someone is not in the know. Not in the subject ...
  5. cniza 19 March 2020 09: 01 New
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    the frequency of financial crises is in direct proportion to the desire of speculators to warm their hands at sharp changes in quotes and the desire of global fraudsters to cover up previously committed financial crimes with the crisis.


    Does anyone have doubts about this?
    1. rocket757 19 March 2020 09: 11 New
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      Quote: cniza
      Does anyone have doubts about this?

      HA, they have FAITH! This is not something new, just one object of faith, is replaced by another!
      There is an object of FAITH, quite a ... durable !!! And the current one was immediately with a sweetheart ... that was gone.
      1. cniza 19 March 2020 09: 16 New
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        We are their sponsors and all ...
        1. rocket757 19 March 2020 09: 27 New
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          Quote: cniza
          We are their sponsors and all ...

          Wow! Real, material, from all sides are gathered in one big pile and ... dragged into their bins. And they give empty pieces of paper in return ... and print, print them without ceasing!
          1. cniza 19 March 2020 09: 46 New
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            And we continue to accept them (pieces of paper), but this has always been and will be, unfortunately ...
            1. rocket757 19 March 2020 10: 30 New
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              Quote: cniza
              And we continue to accept them (pieces of paper), but this has always been and will be, unfortunately ...

              Several stages
              - simply without money, in their official form, we CANNOT exist.
              - we can change official "candy wrappers" for something tangible, but there are limitations
              - change some candy wrappers to other candy wrappers, there are no restrictions, but here you need to show very common sense! if it is not .. then the flight of "fantasy", such as nonsense, can absorb everything and leave it without anything at all.
  6. rocket757 19 March 2020 09: 07 New
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    Financial crises come more often: about the causes of the new economic reality

    too many people got carried away by playing candy wrappers, which in fact were not provided with anything other than FAITH in their value .... and then, all of a sudden, it turns out again and again that it is FAITH, it’s not enough that these wrappers are paper, painted ... but the BOTTLE \ GLASS, even empty, always VESCH !!!
  7. Ravil_Asnafovich 19 March 2020 09: 10 New
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    All these crises, invented by individual elects and turned against the population of the earth, but in Russia only, it is also genocide against the people. Our “chosen ones” are generally not worried about the population, they will come up with something else to fool the people.
  8. Mouse 19 March 2020 09: 10 New
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    more and more ... following the logic, not tans, a constant hopeless crisis ... crying
    1. unhappy 19 March 2020 10: 04 New
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      Apocalypse is not the fall of an asteroid but an economic crisis and subsequent chaos and war. recourse
  9. Mikhail3 19 March 2020 09: 36 New
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    On Tuesday, the Government and the Central Bank of Russia issued a joint statement on their operational measures against the economic impact of coronavirus and volatility in global financial and commodity markets.
    So it started. Our Central Bank launched the game "against volatility in the global financial and commodity markets." That is a global world game, relying on its economy. I translate:
    For the game on the world markets, various actions are being taken, all the negative consequences of which are dumped inside the country. Since Russia is a financial pygmy, and in calm times mercilessly squeezing its economy, preventing it from developing, the capacity of global actions is extremely low, a consolidated strike will affect a maximum of a couple of days, well, maybe hours. Well this is not a trigger to serve, as in the current situation around OPEC + and oil prices.
    Just enough time to pull stolen goods from the US and the dollar. And the fact that our economy simply could not survive the global actions, we could hardly breathe before the crisis. Once, for the sake of stolen goods, the second world economy was destroyed. We don’t have anything similar here, nothing to really steal. It is necessary to save the "legacy of the USSR." Ugh ...
  10. Gardamir 19 March 2020 10: 17 New
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    We live in a time of credit economy.
  11. gridasov 19 March 2020 10: 24 New
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    It is strange that no one voices the main reasons for the approaching global complex crisis. The main component of which is the lack of scientific and technological achievements built on fundamental solutions in mathematics and physics.
    1. Mikhail3 20 March 2020 09: 58 New
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      Science has nothing to do with what is happening. Any achievements will only lead to the fact that the capitalist economy will need people even less than now, and, due to the disappearance of a solvent consumer from it, it will simply move to a complete collapse even faster.
  12. Operator 19 March 2020 10: 42 New
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    The crisis became inevitable after the inclusion of the printing press by all central banks in 2008. Plus, the development of new technologies for the production of shale hydrocarbons and the liquefaction of natural gas, which caused a multiple oversupply of oil and gas.

    No Russian National Welfare Fund will help us, since the funds in it are mainly accumulated in dollars and euros, the rate of which will also collapse like the ruble.

    The only chance to stop the price increase in Russia is the import substitution of anything and everything. In addition, it’s finally time for us to get off the oil needle and begin to naturally reduce oil and gas production by abandoning the development of new fields with a high cost. It is necessary to begin the purchase of cheaper hydrocarbons from the same Iran for the supply of domestic food and engineering products.

    Global warming and the resulting shortage of fresh water resources will help us, because only Russia has an excess of land and a stable supply of precipitation.
    1. Mikhail3 20 March 2020 09: 55 New
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      Tens of trillions of dollars, which our economy was supposed to modernize and develop, were exported abroad. And now these funds are turning into nothing. In a literal sense. The second economy of the world was plundered so that there was NOTHING on the way out. Zero.
  13. honest people 19 March 2020 11: 44 New
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    Quote: Nastia Makarova
    there is almost no difference !!! if you have sn 250 or 300 dollars you don’t feel the difference

    Kremleboty methodically destroy the country's population! good
  14. Grading 19 March 2020 14: 14 New
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    Quote: Nastia Makarova
    there is almost no difference !!! if you have sn 250 or 300 dollars you don’t feel the difference

    Lahti ay who is more professional? negative
  15. DNS-a42 19 March 2020 14: 16 New
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    I.V. Stalin: "To destroy crises, it is necessary to destroy capitalism."