Trump has declared an emergency: the global economy is in a fever


Economic news in recent years, they have been reminiscent of either front-line reports, or reporting from the disaster area into which global markets and exchanges have evolved over the past weeks. The widening epidemic of coronavirus, the outbreak of the "oil war" - all of these sudden blows hit them, rushing mercilessly and indiscriminately. However, let’s try to figure out who is in the worst today, and who, perhaps, is in a better position than it was before the sudden appearance of the “black swans”, threatening to lead the world to a colossal financial and economic crisis.


In truth, the talk that 2020 will be the starting point of a new global recession was conducted the whole previous year, beginning long before the outbreak of COVID-19 in China. His appearance simply became the last straw. Nevertheless, today in the Celestial Empire itself they say that the blackest days for the country are behind, its national economy is already recovering and will soon return to normal operation, having lost only in export volumes and not even in all directions. However, the enormous capacity of the domestic Chinese market largely compensates for these losses. Representatives of the Celestial Health Authorities believe that the global coronavirus pandemic could decline by the beginning of summer, if all countries take effective measures to combat it.

The main opponent of China, the United States, things are not going so well. It became known about the declaration of a state of emergency in the country by President Donald Trump. The head of the White House intends to use at least $ 50 billion from reserve funds to combat the widening epidemic. At the same time, they were instructed by the country's Ministry of Energy regarding the increase in oil purchases for its strategic reserve. According to him, this is due to the collapse of prices for black gold, which made such operations "very profitable."

However, this unexpected “gift” can have an extremely unpleasant downside for the United States.

According to some experts, the current low energy prices could knock out shale oil production from the profitability zone, on which American export expansion to world hydrocarbon markets is based. Generally speaking, forecasts regarding the future of the US economy as such today are completely different. If the country's finance minister Stephen Mnuchin claims that the coronavirus is not able to exert a “long-term negative effect” on it and the situation is under the full control of the government, then JPMorgan analysts predict that the crisis caused by the pandemic will “shock” the US and Europe by July and lead to global global recessions. US GDP, according to JPMorgan, may lose 2% in the first quarter, while European GDP - 1,8%.

As for the Old World, then everything is far from glory to God. Borders are closing, enterprises are shutting down, flights are being canceled. Emergency modes are introduced. The world economy is in a fever.

On Friday, on the other hand, the stock indices of Western Europe went up, showing maximum growth rates since November 2008. The statement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel that her government uses all means at its disposal to help German companies and their employees cope with the consequences of the coronavirus, confirmed by the words of the German finance minister Olaf Scholz about Berlin’s financial capabilities, played a very positive role here. sufficient to overcome the current crisis. However, the rise in the consolidated index of the largest enterprises in the Stoxx Europe 600 region by 7% on Friday does not yet compensate for its collapse the day before, on Thursday, by as much as 11% and a half. At the same time, in such market segments as the automotive industry, tourism and entertainment, the decline has become the maximum since the 2008 crisis.

Similar processes are taking place in the domestic stock market. Over the previous week, it experienced the actually worst period since 2008: for example, the Moscow Exchange index fell by 10% from March 13 to 14,8. However, at the close of Friday trading, both the Moscow Exchange and the RTS indices again showed growth. Oil prices were also slightly adjusted - around $ 35 per barrel.

Naturally, much here will depend on the course of the confrontation between the oil exporting countries, each of which today seeks to squeeze out competitors in the energy markets, dumping as much as possible. Most likely, the end of the “oil war” will be either one of its participants reaching the “bottom”, below which it will simply be impossible to lower prices, or, more likely, the conclusion of a new agreement to regulate the world value of “black gold” - in the OPEC format + or some other.

In the meantime, states that are not affected by the coronavirus with a fairly dynamically developing industry and large energy needs are in a clear gain from what is happening. A classic example is India, which is very beneficial for cheap oil and gas. However, most likely, China will also receive considerable benefits from the cheapness of gas and oil in the process of restoring its industrial production volumes.

One way or another, it will be possible to talk about the world economy returning to a normal mode of existence only when at least one of the current “black swans” really goes beyond the horizon: the COVID-19 pandemic or the oil “collapse”. Even better - if both at once.
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  1. maidan.izrailovich 14 March 2020 07: 13 New
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    All this for the sake of saving the hegemony of the United States and the dollar.
    1. Snail N9 14 March 2020 08: 36 New
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      Planned capitalism and a working, obedient population are China's main advantages over the rest of the world. Thanks to the planned economy, China has ample room for maneuver in any area of ​​the economy and within society, right up to mass relocations and forced labor in just a bowl of pottage. The "countries of enlightened democracies" do not have the possibility of such a maneuver - they can only use cash injections, which is not always effective and efficient. In addition, the coronovirus significantly limits (or rather stops it at all) maneuver by the production forces inside, for example, the EU - which was not the case in previous crises of this century. The situation for the global global economy is serious. However, for China, with its organization, the way out of the situation is quite simple and not very whitish due to the huge domestic market and due to the fact that the rest of the countries, after a panic, after learning about the victory over the coronovirus in China, will gradually return to purchasing its goods. But for the EU and the countries of “democracies” sad times come — the coronovirus will do business there, due to the lack of “stick discipline” of the population in China and due to unbreakable “values” - “personal freedom”, “democracy”, and “the ban on coercion decisions "and other" democratic achievements and values. " Maybe it will end altogether, chaos and riots-revolutions-out in Italy already, there are signs of this.
      1. Dimmedroll 14 March 2020 10: 43 New
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        What is enlightened democracy? (this enlightened rich will rule the poor even harder)
      2. Lelek 14 March 2020 12: 38 New
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        Quote: Snail N9
        It may end altogether, chaos and revolts, revolutions ...

        hi
        IMHO, most likely all countries will flee to their apartments, fence off with a thorn in order to survive these medical, and behind it, economic cataclysms. The age of globalization is ending, everyone is thinking about the fate of a loved one. In connection with this trend, the demand for “hegemon” is falling and the grumbling is growing louder: “let’s you go ...” to the “exceptional” address (directly on Zhirinovsky’s).
      3. Keyser soze 14 March 2020 12: 55 New
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        But for the EU and the countries of "democracies" sad times come, the coronovirus will do business there, due to the lack of "stick discipline"


        Hoho .... you can’t leave the house at all without leaving police permission. In Bulgaria yesterday, an emergency was announced and at night the police were already on the streets and were closing that small number of shops and institutions that they hadn’t closed themselves. The penalty for non-compliance with anti-epidemic orders is 25 euros plus 000 years in prison. Arrived.
    2. Beringovsky 14 March 2020 09: 15 New
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      Yes exactly. America decided to shoot herself in the head, bringing down international trade, in which the dollar plays a major role.
      What a sophisticated plan, who would have thought ?!
      1. Lopatov 14 March 2020 13: 06 New
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        Quote: Beringovsky
        What a sophisticated plan, who would have thought ?!

        Americans are not the first to reap the benefits of their "ingenious decisions."
        Suffice it to recall the two skyscrapers of the WTC

        So the fact that the Americans themselves suffered cannot be evidence of their innocence.
  2. don-1500 14 March 2020 07: 15 New
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    50 lards to fight the epidemic. He recently offered the same amount for Jerusalem. How much money
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    2. Ros 56 15 March 2020 11: 27 New
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      This is the money of the whole world.
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    1. Mordvin 3 14 March 2020 07: 25 New
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      Quote: Kontroler
      If there wasn’t a panic in the media, everyone would have forgotten about this for a long time ..

      Yes, throw a couple of megatons into the Saudis, and the price of oil will jump up lively. laughing
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        1. Mordvin 3 14 March 2020 07: 35 New
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          Quote: Kontroler
          It's too easy

          The simplest solutions, as a rule, turn out to be the most effective. Why break your head? They don’t have democracy there, they have to bring it. winked In large fields. Previously, in the USSR, newspapers constantly wrote something like: "In connection with the study of a peaceful atom, an underground nuclear explosion was carried out on Novaya Zemlya with a power of ... blah blah blah. Here the Saudis need to make a new training ground. And they were completely numb.
        2. DEDPIHTO 14 March 2020 07: 54 New
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          Quote: Kontroler
          It's too simple, but we love to overcome difficulties and create them for ourselves ..)))) wassat

          Mikhan, I want to ask you a neoliberal tearing his harnesses for the liberputine oligarchy and the Communist Party at the same time wassat -That you posted the Soviet flag today, so how do you understand this? Are you creating difficulties for yourself or are you overcoming them? lol
          1. Mordvin 3 14 March 2020 08: 00 New
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            Quote: DEPHIHTO
            Are you creating difficulties for yourself or are you overcoming them?

            He overcomes these difficulties every day. laughing Oh, how many accounts he had, the mind is incomprehensible.
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            1. Gardamir 14 March 2020 08: 36 New
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              whiners and talkers
              So it’s because in 1989-1993 you all ached and chatted that it’s bad to live in the Union. And how a coup was arranged. so do not immediately rock the boat.
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            2. DEDPIHTO 14 March 2020 08: 41 New
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              Quote: Kontroler
              Quote: DEPHIHTO
              Meehan, I want to ask you a neoliberal



              Quote: DEPHIHTO
              tearing his ports for the libertine oligarchy and for the Communist Party at the same time wassat -that you hung the Soviet flag today, so how to understand?

              I am a Soviet man, so-called wok, quilted jacket, etc. I love vodka and parades ..))) I hate whiners and talkers ..
              Quote: DEPHIHTO
              Are you creating difficulties for yourself or are you overcoming them?

              I create and overcome for five years here)))) laughing drinks
              So you can call any liberal from the USSR a Soviet man, too, love parades lol and surely they won’t refuse free vodka. What makes you a neoliberal from the classical liberties of any gozman is that you constantly turn right and left, without any clear guidelines and principles. Champion in wide jump. wassat
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      2. Qwertyarion 14 March 2020 08: 16 New
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        Quote: mordvin xnumx
        Yes, throw a couple of megatons into the Saudis, and

        Maybe there is a secret plan for the Saudis in our country to lower gas prices?
  4. Mitroha 14 March 2020 07: 20 New
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    How did the virus appear in time, and the oil war, like a cherry on a cake. And then everyone suffered from the expectation of a crisis, but it did not start at all. And then there’s so much that can be attributed to him and sawed all. Everything is as always, paraphrasing - to whom the crisis is, and to whom the mother is dear
  5. bessmertniy 14 March 2020 07: 26 New
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    Unfortunately, the financial crisis is clearly starting to add to the pandemic and collapse in oil prices. It can be assumed that the "black swans" in the near future will breed further. It is not yet clear whether a decline in economic activity will lead to a drop in agriculture and production. Frank famines, as in the last century were in the USSR, the USA and China have not existed for a long time, but this does not mean that they are excluded, especially in connection with a sharp climate change .. what
    1. aybolyt678 14 March 2020 08: 19 New
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      Quote: bessmertniy
      and a collapse in oil prices, today the financial crisis is clearly starting to add.

      oil is getting cheaper, the dollar is getting more expensive ... for PAPER the Americans will create a supply of oil for themselves until the next crisis. How magicians distract everyone with a coronavirus
  6. Odysseus 14 March 2020 07: 31 New
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    For Trump, the question is whether the US can cope with the epidemic to become the key to electoral victory. On the whole, the Western world itself has become a victim of the technology it created itself, managing society through fear, in particular through fear of a pandemic.
    And if the first round of the fight against China, the United States won by creating hysteria around the Chinese epidemic, now the situation has reversed.
    As for the fall in prices for raw materials, it was obvious in the context of a decrease in production and consumption in the PRC and world trade as a whole. But here there are no problems either for the United States or for the PRC. For the PRC, this is generally manna from heaven in conditions of the need to restore production.
    Here, only countries living with oil and gas trade will have problems.
    1. aybolyt678 14 March 2020 08: 25 New
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      Quote: Odyssey
      For Trump, the question is whether the US can cope with the epidemic to become the key to electoral victory.

      America can handle it. In secret, I’ll say that not all people die, their antibodies are produced, so it’s possible to get immunoglobulin ...
      Quote: Odyssey
      Regarding the fall in commodity prices

      America, like a vacuum cleaner, is buying up "cheap" oil, for a "more expensive" dollar, it will last as long as it (oil) is.
      Quote: Odyssey
      the situation turned around

      the situation is now always in one direction, the whole world is being mastered, management technologies are running in wassat
    2. Svetlana 14 March 2020 08: 44 New
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      >>> For Trump, the question is whether the United States to cope with the epidemic becomes the key to victory in the election.
      ..
      And what can you do there? Not the USA will cope, but all of us, humanity. Bo vaccine in the laboratory has already been created and today it, as expected, is undergoing a test course. Testing by methods cannot be quick. By the end of summer, it will begin to be produced on an industrial scale.
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    1. Sergey Olegovich 14 March 2020 08: 11 New
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      Quote: Kontroler
      Subtracted the network .. The epidemic began and ended.
      "In the DPRK, the first and last patient infected with a coronovirus was shot .."

      laughing shot from anti-aircraft guns? laughing
      P.S. They like tabloid publications to spread false rumors about the DPRK.
      1. The comment was deleted.
  8. Sergey Olegovich 14 March 2020 08: 05 New
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    Even better - if both at once.

    Most likely this will happen. The coronovirus will decline and oil quotes will begin to rise after it.
    1. New Year day 14 March 2020 15: 19 New
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      Quote: Sergey Olegovich
      and after him, oil quotes will begin to rise.

      Is Russia Returning to OPEC?
  9. 1536 14 March 2020 08: 53 New
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    The US government is trying by hook or by crook to show that they are the main ones in the world. Something is announcing, something is forbidden, it is “fighting” with something, it is pointing to someone. In the world, they look with hope at the USA as a saving island flying over the world, sowing deliverance from all troubles and epidemics. "The Americans will fly in and everything will be fine!" - They think in most of the planet. - "Well, what are they flying? .. Ah, now, now ..." Thus, an intermediate goal is achieved: US actions continue to be trusted by people. Thus, half the battle has already been done and everything remains as before.
    In fact, because of the veil of fog, donkey ears began to peek over the controlled strategy used by the Americans to prevent a global global economic and social crisis that would inevitably lead to the collapse of the US financial (and not only) system. This is done by organizing a “vaccination” called a pandemic of a virus made on the scale of all mankind. Vaccination, as you know, is a controlled process, after which a person develops immunity. Someone, of course, will die, but this percentage is not taken into account, this is so, "negative statistics". And now, production in China has been artificially reduced, the US borders have been closed, logistics have paralyzed, and tourism has died. According to economists, the restoration requires several months, apparently the very notorious “100 days”, so beloved by politicians and bankers since the time of the Napoleonic Wars.
    So who controls all this? Well, of course, it’s not Mr. President of America, but the United States is just a platform for performance or happening, who like it better. Therefore, globalization in the world after the completion of the "concert" will only intensify, and the United States will once again be the winners. But, alas, say the cherished words "Sentry, tired, clean the room!" in relation to the Americans, no one. And is it necessary in modern conditions, when a magnet, in violation of all laws of physics, lacks a 2nd pole?
  10. rocket757 14 March 2020 08: 59 New
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    What can I say, "jolly" has just begun ... the consequences / losses will be for everyone. What they will be, now only fortune telling, fortune telling.
    1. cniza 14 March 2020 10: 30 New
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      We are all interconnected, will fly to everyone ...
      1. rocket757 14 March 2020 11: 06 New
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        Globalization however .... was. A healthy, and sometimes excessive selfishness of the most powerful states is being shown, because the weak have already woken up to the desire to become attached to the one who is stronger!
        Well I say that the "fun" went!
        Events will be different !!! And frankly, it is somewhat reassuring that our authorities are stronger, tougher than many !!! In such a situation, this is more a blessing than a disadvantage.
        Of course, if the upper ones will do what is necessary, and not ......
        1. cniza 14 March 2020 11: 16 New
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          Let's hope that we survive this “storm” without big losses ...
          1. rocket757 14 March 2020 12: 22 New
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            Hope dies .... let it never die.
            1. cniza 14 March 2020 12: 43 New
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              Here I am about the same, break through ...
  11. nikvic46 14 March 2020 09: 06 New
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    Without waiting for the global global crisis, countries rushed to force it. And at the same time, you can make good money.
    1. cniza 14 March 2020 10: 29 New
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      Yes, for some it is a very profitable project.
  12. Super 14 March 2020 09: 57 New
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    It seems that the dollar has not remained long ... No wonder the rumors were that it was not provided with anything.
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. Super 14 March 2020 10: 13 New
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        Stupid people may have exchanged rubles for dollars, but they understand a little in politics, they know that the dollar is hopeless. Nothing can save it, and recent events confirm this.
        1. Karabin 14 March 2020 11: 34 New
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          they at least understand a little in politics, they know that the dollar is hopeless
          Dynamics of hopelessness: 1:30, 1: 60,1: 72. laughing
          1. Fat
            Fat 14 March 2020 20: 43 New
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            Quote: Karabin
            they at least understand a little in politics, they know that the dollar is hopeless
            Dynamics of hopelessness: 1:30, 1: 60,1: 72. laughing

            Show nonsense ...))))
            February 2016 77.1326
            January 2016 76.5845
            So what ... There is room to grow .. No?
    2. cniza 14 March 2020 10: 28 New
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      Quote: Super
      It seems that the dollar has not remained long ... No wonder the rumors were that it was not provided with anything.


      Why rumors, everyone knew about it, it is provided by trade contracts around the world and it is possible to bury it, but not so simple ...
      1. Snail N9 14 March 2020 10: 37 New
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        I look, there are such "specialists" in the world economy and finance gathered .... to bury the dollar .... where is the dollar now, to survive. Poor dollar, poor dollar .... not long for him ... crying And there is also Yellowstone, and Nibiru with Betelgeuse and the prophecies of Nostradamus and Wanga ... not ... the dollar, for sure, cannot survive .... yes
        1. cniza 14 March 2020 10: 45 New
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          In my opinion, there has always been plenty of them ... and then the coronovirus arrived in time, encouraged many ... yes
          1. Snail N9 14 March 2020 10: 59 New
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            cheered up many ...

            More precisely, it “stuck out” ... For some, it was even “unsubstantiated” -wind, the “megatons” were about to throw themselves at the “Saudis” .... Although yes, this is a typical “seasonal” - “spring” and all that, well of course - coronovirus ... yes
            1. cniza 14 March 2020 11: 01 New
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              This Erdogan turned up, and these pushed not childishly ... yes
              1. Snail N9 14 March 2020 11: 04 New
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                I agree, “Turk Turk”, and these “sticks” and “sticks”
                1. cniza 14 March 2020 11: 06 New
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                  Yeah, and then flatters and swears ... lol
  13. cniza 14 March 2020 10: 26 New
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    As for the Old World, then everything is far from glory to God. Borders are closing, enterprises are shutting down, flights are being canceled. Emergency modes are introduced. The world economy is in a fever.


    This project (coronovirus), for someone, turned out to be very successful.
  14. Super 14 March 2020 10: 30 New
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    All the same, they are weak. From any sneeze in the USA, panic immediately.
  15. rocket757 14 March 2020 11: 12 New
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    Even in a normal situation, the share of reasonable selfishness is only a plus!
    In an extreme situation, selfishness cannot be excessive at all.
    This is just reality .... and all other ideas, no matter how good they look, will conflict with the natural desire of responsible figures only cares about their interests.
    It’s good when the balance of interests is maintained, but right now this is not to be expected!
  16. honest people 14 March 2020 12: 09 New
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    Quote: Super
    It seems that the dollar has not remained long ... No wonder the rumors were that it was not provided with anything.

    1. IS-80_RVGK2 14 March 2020 12: 37 New
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      good laughing Nevertheless, neither the sisters nor the dirhams are already in use. smile
  17. Operator 14 March 2020 13: 58 New
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    "on Friday stock indices of Western Europe went up"- the central banks of Europe and Asia turned on printing presses to their full potential and flooded exchanges with depreciating money, after which the second Great Depression of 1929 was expected to come am
  18. New Year day 14 March 2020 15: 41 New
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    current low energy prices could drive shale oil production out of profitability zone

    Saudi Arabia is preparing an emergency budget, where the price will be set at 12 dollars per barrel oil.
  19. Cowbra 14 March 2020 15: 42 New
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    OPEC - the backbone of the world of petrodollars. Without OPEC, oil will not necessarily be traded ONLY for bucks, which means that the dollar is not provided with anything at all. Here is the MAIN client "caught" from the crisis.
    The second is their ally. But he got there much earlier - after the Hussites attacked the factory. A fall in prices is a "check in the head." Just one example - this is our cost of oil production from 9 to 22 bucks per barrel. And $ 30 for her is unpleasant, but you can live. And in the SAR, the budget is made up from the price of 60 per barrel, while the money is not enough so much that for the year is the third attempt at a coup
  20. Snail N9 14 March 2020 16: 38 New
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    Um. It seems that in Russia, something similar to panic is already beginning - I went to OKEU for a week and went crazy from the crowd of people there - they buy cereals, salt, sugar, other products, canned food, toilet paper, etc. I have not seen so many buyers there , even before the holidays was less.
  21. bandabas 14 March 2020 16: 48 New
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    How many Chinese have died from this "adversity"? And how much continues to exist and multiply? That and that ... But we will soon have April 22nd.
  22. Operator 15 March 2020 09: 24 New
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    The world after the coronavirus will become different - definitely bully