Again "near zero": Kudrin gave a forecast on the economic growth of the Russian Federation for 2020


There are classic arguments as to why the Russian economy will not be able to reach the planned targets outlined by the president. And the plans, it is worth recalling, are economic growth at rates that are higher than the global average - that is, at least about 3,6% per year. In recent years, it has not been possible to achieve such indicators. According to the head of the Accounts Chamber, this year will not succeed. At the same time, Alexei Kudrin immediately offers an explanation.


According to Kudrin, according to the results of 2020, "economic growth will be about zero." It is noteworthy that earlier the interpretation of “near zero” was already proposed by representatives of the economic elites of Russia. And indeed, even under quite favorable conditions in the markets, including the hydrocarbon market, economic growth fell within the range of 1-1,8%.

Alexei Kudrin believes that this year the “near zero” regime will be associated with a fall in oil prices, a sharp depreciation of the national currency.

According to Kudrin, if the price of oil is about $ 35 per barrel at a dollar exchange rate of 72 rubles, the budget will receive less than 3 trillion “oil and gas revenues”.

At the same time, for some reason, among economic experts, they rarely talk about how much additional revenue the state received when oil prices were above $ 50, which they held for a long time and exceeded $ 65 per barrel.

Meanwhile, foreign economic experts believe that the rolling economic crisis can be more than serious, since, in their opinion, "numerous financial and credit bubbles may begin to burst in the Chinese economy and other markets."
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  1. Mavrikiy 12 March 2020 17: 25 New
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    Again "near zero": Kudrin gave a forecast on the economic growth of the Russian Federation for 2020
    Today, 17: 22
    Having the Kudrins in government, there will be (-). angry
    1. Svarog 12 March 2020 17: 28 New
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      Again "near zero"

      This is an accurate assessment of the effectiveness (according to the ten-point system) of both Kudrin himself and his patron-fairy-tale, as well as all all managers .. and Duma members ..
      1. Sarmat Sanych 12 March 2020 18: 05 New
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        In fact, worldwide for more than 5 years, growth has been less than 0,5%, and in Russia for 4 years, annual growth has been more than 2% (4 times higher):
        https://news-front.info/2020/02/10/aleksandr-rodzhers-problemy-ne-u-teh-u-kogo-rost-zamedlilsya-a-u-teh-u-kogo-reczessiya-uzhe-polgoda/
        International market conditions, coronovirus and much more are objective factors affecting absolutely all economies. The problems are not for those whose growth has slowed down, but for those who have had a recession for half a year.
        1. Mavrikiy 12 March 2020 18: 37 New
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          Quote: Sarmat Sanych
          In fact, worldwide for more than 5 years, growth has been less than 0,5%, and in Russia for 4 years, annual growth has been more than 2%

          Oh, the kids are rooting, like devils from incense (minus).
          1. Ingvar 72 12 March 2020 19: 17 New
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            Quote: Mavrikiy
            Oh, the kids are rooting, like devils from incense (minus).

            "Korezhit" guys from golem lies, and manipulation of numbers. Score in Google "The rating of the world countries for industrial production", and make sure that Russia is far from in first place in terms of production growth. Yes, the growth of Russian industry is slightly higher than the EU countries, but this is because the EU industry is at its peak, and adds only a little bit as a percentage, but (!) If you monetize this growth, you will see real numbers. And only then the comparison will be objective. hi
            1. Sarmat Sanych 12 March 2020 19: 55 New
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              Inkgvar 72, and if you don’t whine on the Internet and think, you can remove the saucepan from your headlaughing.
              Let it be known that per capita output per capita in Russia and the United States is Odinakov (go to Cia Cia Factbook website, subtract the share of services in each of the economies from the GDP per capita and are surprised).
              In terms of industrial production (in $ PPP), Russia in 2018-2019 takes 4th place in the world (and 1st place in Europe).
              In general, if we are not talking about industrial production but about gross product, then the GDP of most countries that occupy the top lines of world leadership has long been formed not due to the real sector, but due to price speculation. And this is very convenient, because thanks to such an assessment, it is completely unnecessary to admit that Russia in 2019 is ahead of Britain, Italy, France and the Federal Republic of Germany in terms of real production, and Canada is three times superior. It is much more pleasant to say that the GDP of the Russian Federation in current dollars (at face value) is comparable to the GDP of Canada and inferior to English, formed due to the wonders of virtual statistics.
              With regards to the United States, their 85% of GDP consists of manipulating company quotes on the exchange, plus the machine tool and the service sector. In the statistics of GDP, the states even include the estimated rental income from buildings built earlier in 2 centuries (official facts, I emphasize), while some of these buildings, facilities and structures are not rented by anyone. A barrel of oil in the United States when it comes to refining is bought up on the stock exchange a dozen times, and each kaz the final figure is plus GDP, even Bloomberg analysts wrote about this, they were fucking crazy about such "miracles"))). The real sector accounts for only about 15% of US GDP, while Russia has in our PPP GDP of $ 4,3 trillion (5th in the world), the real sector accounts for about 90%. If you look at the Western "highs", take a look at the powerful American industry ", you will see that Caterpillar, Gm and Ford are on the verge of bankruptcy, coal and shale companies have collapsed and disappeared by 70%, Boeing suffers constant losses and is on the verge of extinction, Westinghouse went bankrupt and squandered to a small company producing Mox fuel, etc. Meanwhile, Rosatom is building 68% of the new nuclear power plants on the planet and controlling 50% of the world uranium enrichment marketgood.
              It’s not even worth talking about the current British, French and Italian industry. Britain, in comparison with the 80s, has not produced nicherta for a long time.
              Finally, only two numbers:
              1). Production capacities of Russia over the past 10 years have been updated by 75%, data from leading international institutions in confirmation
              2). In 1991, all ports of the 290 million Union with its 15 republics handled 800 million tons of products per year, and now only the ports of one 147 million Russia transship about 1 billion tons of products per year.
              1. IXION 12 March 2020 20: 09 New
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                Everything is great ... That's just the country's population is getting poorer and neither hot nor cold is due to these facts.
                1. Sarmat Sanych 12 March 2020 21: 06 New
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                  IXION, where is it getting poorer? Or according to the principle "people are getting poorer - that’s what the uncle said to me on the Internet"?)) Guys, we’re actually under the total sanctions of the West, oil has crashed 2014 times since 4 (the most powerful Union fell apart only after a double fall), with the Russians annually they buy 90 million square meters of new housing and 1,8 million of new cars only (reports of the IMF, RCC and the Association of European Businesses in confirmation). Last year, 35 million Russians rested abroad (data from the International Union of Tour Operators), plus 6,5 million in Crimea and 14 million in Sochi, where you can see the "impoverishment". According to Apple, the Russian market for its products (the most expensive in the mobile industry by the way) is the 4th largest in terms of sales in the world. But there are also 1,4 billion China with India, the richest France, Japan, Germany, Britain, of course the super-rich States with their 340 million population - and after all some 4 countries Russia has outstripped by purchases))
                  1. CSKA 13 March 2020 11: 39 New
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                    Quote: Sarmat Sanych
                    whether according to the principle "people are getting poorer - the uncle told me so on the Internet"?))

                    Dear him, it is possible to provide figures and facts, unfortunately, there won’t be much sense. As Professor Preobrazhensky said: "She is not in ruins on the street, she is in the head."
                    You need to be completely without a head to remember the 90s and see the current economic situation and at the same time shout that we are heading into the abyss. They also learned the beautiful word "Stagnation" and now they are screaming that we have a low economic growth, and they are not particularly anxious to see the growth of the economies of Great Britain, France and Germany. All of them are wrong, all of them are wrong. Some have already agreed that they live in hell, in poverty, they just write it on the forum from smartphones and laptops.
                2. Mavrikiy 12 March 2020 21: 53 New
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                  Quote: IXION
                  Everything is great ... That's just the country's population is getting poorer and neither hot nor cold is due to these facts.
                  Population, imagine degradation declarations. I do not believe!
              2. Honest Citizen 12 March 2020 20: 23 New
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                HSE named after E. Gaidara with honors?
                1. Sarmat Sanych 12 March 2020 21: 10 New
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                  Citizen, do you really think that the lousy HSE writes at least something non-Russophobic or at least 1% similar to what I said? Or are you just stamping the learned emissions automatically? I have recently begun to realize with horror that most commentators generally do not bother with the understanding of the text they are commenting on, and even less so trying to consciously analyze and verify. Pure reflection, not obscured by the work of the mind. Clip thinking in full growth. Many, in principle, do not even try to understand the difference between their personal perceptions (of their relatives, friends, acquaintances) and the statistics of the whole state, in which 147 million people live, on a huge part of the land and in completely different living conditions.
                2. Mavrikiy 12 March 2020 21: 57 New
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                  Quote: Honest Citizen
                  HSE named after E. Gaidara with honors?

                  Who are you and for what reason? Are you able to coordinate and poke articulate? We follow with enthusiasm. For a lamp. repeat
              3. Ingvar 72 12 March 2020 20: 43 New
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                Quote: Sarmat Sanych
                then you can remove the saucepan from your head.

                Your example will not work for me, because from the very beginning I don’t put a saucepan on my head. wink
                Quote: Sarmat Sanych
                In terms of industrial production (in $ PPP), Russia in 2018-2019 takes 4th place in the world (and 1st place in Europe).

                Again a lie with manipulation. According to the World Bank, the PPP of Rosiii at the end of 2018 amounted to 3986 billion. And this is the 6th place. wink By growth - on Wikipedia (List of countries by GDP growth rate) there is a list of countries by PPP by years, according to the World Bank. From 1990 to 2018. Read with a calculator. After that, find out the percentage of extractive industries in these countries.
                Quote: Sarmat Sanych
                . Russia's production capacity over the past 10 years has been updated by 75%, data from leading international institutions in support of

                What institutions provide such data?
                Quote: Sarmat Sanych
                In 1991, all ports of the 290 millionth Union with its 15 republics handled 800 million tons of products per year, and now

                Yes, because almost all of the country's supply consists of imports. and used to be here. Found something to brag about.
                1. Sarmat Sanych 12 March 2020 21: 30 New
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                  Ingvar 72, do you sometimes read what you answerlaughing? Do you understand the meaning of the phrase “ship” and the difference between GDP and VOLUME OF PRODUCTION at all? I’ll also repeat for you the forerunner: lately I began to understand with horror that most commentators don’t bother at all with understanding the text they are commenting on and, moreover, they are not trying to consciously analyze and verify. Pure reflection, not obscured by the work of the mind. Clip thinking in full growth.
                  That is the volume of industrial production in Russia at PPP is the fourth in the world. And PPP GDP, by the way, is not the 6th but the 5th. Oil and gas exports to the GDP of the Russian Federation (80% of oil products and not net oil, I note, that is, added value) is 8% by the way, for comparison, in Saudi Arabia it is about 75%, in Norway 11%, in Australia 9%.
                  What the hell is “supply consisting of imports” if Russia has the 3rd largest world trade surplus in the world, export last year is $ 453 billion, and import $ 270 billion. Comparing with the Union is generally ridiculous, the USSR has been significantly from the beginning of the Kosygin reforms 60s to 91st I imported more than I exported, by the way exported 80% of raw materials, which is why I dipped after the oil drop only 2 times, and now it has fallen 4 times since 2014 and nothing has become financially more stable than steel. "The Union itself produced"laughing. What did he “produce” even if he bought ordinary grain and other food, and now Russia is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of food and domestic producers provided 99% of the main types of products for their markets. A couple of figures, poultry meat production in comparison with the RSFSR 91st increased by 2019 times in 3,5, pork production by one and a half times, grain per year the whole Union (with its 290 million population and 70% of arable land outside the RSFSR) collected a maximum of 124 million tons, now Russia alone collects from 120 to 138 million tons. Think what you write.
                  1. Golovan Jack 12 March 2020 21: 33 New
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                    Quote: Sarmat Sanych
                    Think what you write

                    Not a horse. Hopelessly request
                    1. CSKA 13 March 2020 11: 43 New
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                      Quote: Golovan Jack
                      Not a horse. Hopelessly

                      Comrade crushed them in numbers.
                  2. Ingvar 72 12 March 2020 21: 56 New
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                    Quote: Sarmat Sanych
                    The meaning of the phrase "ship"

                    Meaning i understand only this phrase in your comment I have not seen. wink There was a phrase "pass". You are once again for yours. Around the roads, the number of imported appliances is increasing, in the homes all the imported appliances, the construction tool is the same, and you are talking about the mythical development of production. There is no light industry at all from the word, the food industry is almost completely dependent on imported components, corn seeds are more than half import, broiler egg is the same more than half import. Large pig farms are completely dependent on imported feed additives. What kind of development are you talking about ???!
                    Here you are “drowning” for power and imaginary achievements, but I’m sure you can’t ignore the growth of tension in society at the household level. This is only blind does not see. And this is not only the machinations of the State Department, this Putin government is taking leaps and bounds along the path of Yanukovych.
                    1. Sarmat Sanych 12 March 2020 23: 12 New
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                      Ingvar 72, even though you understand for economists what you are commenting on - is it like a clown in the circus arena speaking and everyone is laughing at you?)) How many percent of the cars you find on the roads will find non-Russian production? Dozens of factories of GM, Volkswagen, Renault, Kia, BMW, Hyundai, Mazda, Skoda, Sanyong, Peugeot, Volvo, Mercedes, Mazda, Toyota and so on have long been operating in Russia. If you think that this is just an assembly, then you are deeply mistaken, the degree of localization is from 30 to 80% up to engines and electronics. The situation is similar for household appliances, one Samsung factory of household appliances in the Kaluga Region is worth one of the largest manufactures of the Korean corporation outside of Korea. By the way, many do not even suspect that a number of well-known brands of household appliances are Russian, and not by the citizenship of the plant, but by the citizenship of the brand. Go to the MVideo, read the nameplates from the back and make sure. It goes without saying that the assembly part is still assembled in China, well, so you can go to any home appliance store in Europe and the United States - and you will see the same picture, after all, there are 1,4 billion people in China and they are the assembly world.
                      About light industry is generally ridiculous, as of mid-2019, 60% of the Russian light industry market is domestic products.
                      But this zvezdezh about the "dependence of the seeds of the egg broiler feed additives" is already tired of refuting even. For feeds and additives for animals, Russia already provides 75% of its market, for embryos almost 65%, for seeds, if in general without separate categories - we provide our market for almost 80%, and for some categories completely refused to import.
                      And yes, with leaps and bounds you are walking along the paths of pot-pan-headed maydauns, whining on the Internet from the couch, trying to rock something there, while assenting to your ideological leaders, gorlopans, typical Trotskyists. Only with annoyance do you realize that no fig comes out of this.
              4. Mavrikiy 12 March 2020 21: 04 New
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                Quote: Sarmat Sanych
                In 1991, all ports of the 290 million Union with its 15 republics handled 800 million tons of products per year, and now only the ports of one 147 million Russia transship about 1 billion tons of products per year.
                Let's think stupidly. Baltic ports, whose cargo ... is understandable. Ports Ruins then yes. But we tensed up, digging up the Far East, so he would shut it up at a time, but it requires investment ....
                1. Sarmat Sanych 12 March 2020 21: 40 New
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                  Mavrikiy, not just DV. The main thing is the new Arctic port in the Murmansk region, the Arctic port of Sabetta, the largest Taman in the Black Sea, and most importantly the second largest European Ust-Luga in Europe, this port can become the third largest in the world more than Rotterdam in 2 years, the largest gas chemical cluster on the planet is being built next , a whole small city of 5 thousand with all infrastructure was built for employees in the field.
                  1. CSKA 13 March 2020 11: 49 New
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                    Quote: Sarmat Sanych
                    Mavrikiy, not just DV. The main thing is the new Arctic port in the Murmansk region, the Arctic port of Sabetta, the largest Taman in the Black Sea, and most importantly the second largest European Ust-Luga in Europe, this port can become the third largest in the world more than Rotterdam in 2 years, the largest gas chemical cluster on the planet is being built next , a whole small city of 5 thousand with all infrastructure was built for employees in the field.

                    There are many examples of new productions, only those such as Ingvar 72 do not tire of shouting that everything has been destroyed and Putin has deliberately intentionally destroyed all production. And at the same time they will certainly remember ZIL. about the Star on the Far East, about the petrochemical in Tobolsk and much more. Of course they don’t want to remember.
              5. Fishery 12 March 2020 21: 49 New
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                just why I ordered a wheelbarrow from the USA)) and not from the Russian Federation, they can have the same products and the same shaft)) but not at all in quality)
              6. Keyser soze 12 March 2020 23: 04 New
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                that according to ppc output per capita


                Go and buy yourself a Toyota. And tell me that the price was at PPP.
            2. Mavrikiy 12 March 2020 21: 44 New
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              Quote: Ingvar 72
              Russia is far from first in production growth

              fool Drive in Google and see where I put Russia in first place in terms of production growth. fool As for the relative numbers, then understand which flight to the bottom will be 10%. Who has the ruble, and who has a million. From my 15000, I’ll sacrifice 10000 so that you will be strangled by resentment. We survive, it is the liberals who will come out angry .
            3. CSKA 13 March 2020 11: 30 New
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              Quote: Ingvar 72
              "The rating of the world countries for industrial production," and make sure that Russia is far from in first place in terms of production growth. Yes, the growth of Russian industry is slightly higher than the EU countries, but this is because the EU industry is at its peak, and adds only a little bit as a percentage, but (!) If you monetize this growth, you will see real numbers. And only then the comparison will be objective.

              Well, see for yourself. We are in 6th place.
              1. Ingvar 72 13 March 2020 11: 35 New
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                Quote: CSKA
                Well, see for yourself. We are in 6th place.

                AND? The man said that "throughout the world for more than 5 years, growth has been less than 0,5%, and in Russia for 4 years, annual growth has been more than 2% (4 times higher)." Ie Russia in the first place should be, according to his calculations, right? In fact, 6th place. Is this not called a lie?
                1. CSKA 14 March 2020 12: 13 New
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                  Quote: Ingvar 72
                  AND? The man said that "throughout the world for more than 5 years, growth is less than 0,5%

                  In this he was mistaken. Not all over the world, but mainly in Europe.
                  Quote: Ingvar 72
                  Ie Russia in the first place should be, according to his calculations, right?

                  Even according to his calculations, the percentage is taken from the volume of industrial output in dollars. Even if our growth rate is higher, the volume in money terms is less.
    2. DMB 75 12 March 2020 17: 29 New
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      Quote: Mavrikiy
      Having the Kudrins in government, there will be (-)

      With such "friends" and enemies do not.
      1. Evgeny Ivanov_5 12 March 2020 17: 42 New
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        Kudrin is the last bright head in the Kremlin.
      2. Mavrikiy 12 March 2020 18: 03 New
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        Quote: DMB 75
        With such "friends" and enemies do not.

        I agree. I am a Putinist. GDP took power and the Foreign Ministry, and the restoration of the country's face began. But he gave the economy and internal life of the country into the hands of friend-officials and grabbers. Stalin at one time made the right choice. The Bolshevik revolutionaries, together with the liver, spat out the numbers and codes of the cells of Swiss banks. I hope that Putin will give each of his "friends" a corresponding proposal. And it should be for each of them, to be given their choice. For rivers of blood have already been shed. One Kursk is worth it. angry Yeltsin’s family, maybe, but satanic orgies in the EC are naughty. Fluff EC!
        1. UserGun 12 March 2020 19: 00 New
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          Quote: Mavrikiy
          GDP took power and the Foreign Ministry


          Due to simple workers, i.e. people, having taken away part of their already small income, it would be necessary to add, turning them into beggars. After all, all those in power did not give n-h-e-g-oh of all their capital.
          1. 16329 12 March 2020 21: 09 New
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            Always, everything in the world is done “at the expense of simple workers” and it is they who suffer the most in the process of wars and revolutions, raise the economy, endure perestroika and reform, it doesn’t happen otherwise
            The powers that be and their entourage under any regime have privileges that are far from always balanced by the responsibility that the world is not perfect
          2. Mavrikiy 12 March 2020 21: 16 New
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            Quote: UserGun
            having taken away part of their already small income, we should add by turning them into beggars.
            Favorite principle of a liberalist is to distort. Cried over the fate of a little man.
            Man, if you consider yourself a louse in the interpretation of a liberalist, then you will die.
            "May Russia be exalted, may our names disappear!" Who said to whom? Probably not for you, and probably by mistake ..... request And I do not believe .... all sold?repeat
        2. Icarus 12 March 2020 19: 20 New
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          I agree. I am a Putinist. GDP took power and the Foreign Ministry, and the restoration of the country's face began. But he gave the economy and internal life of the country into the hands of friend-officials and grabbers. Stalin at one time made the right choice.

          "Tell me who your friend is and I will say who you are" - says wisdom. If grunts are thieves in GDP in friends, then who is he? Their boss and leader?
        3. 16329 12 March 2020 21: 06 New
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          We continue our historical parallels, after the adoption of the Stalin Constitution in 1935, a couple of years later interesting events started in the USSR, is it worth recalling which ones.
          Well, then there was the War.
    3. private person 12 March 2020 17: 35 New
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      Having the Kudrins in government, there will be (-).

      Well, yes, if you listen to “someone”, then we have growth in the economy of the second, and that Russia has fallen off the oil needle. And as he was asked why salaries were not rising, he replied that oil prices were low. No matter how bad Kudrin was, but he told the truth, another thing that he did to improve the situation.
      1. yang174 12 March 2020 19: 22 New
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        Kudrin not only said, he and his students lowered the country into this pit for 20 years
        1. Sarmat Sanych 12 March 2020 23: 49 New
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          yang174, yes, at 99m we were on the “top”, then we “went down into the pit”))) Liberasty-volosolnye-Trotskyists, how much will you repeat the same chants on the Internet for potter-headed chants?
          1. yang174 13 March 2020 12: 18 New
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            why are you eating only in her, huh?
    4. Chaldon48 12 March 2020 17: 39 New
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      There is no productivity growth, trade in raw materials, from here everything goes.
      1. Aerodrome 12 March 2020 17: 41 New
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        Again "near zero": Kudrin gave a forecast on the economic growth of the Russian Federation for 2020
        the main thing is "stability"! here we get up, jerk, victory ... only we will untie the laces between the berets.
      2. PavelM 12 March 2020 18: 40 New
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        Quote: Chaldon48
        There is no productivity growth, trade in raw materials, from here everything goes.

        = That is, if a plant per unit number, instead of one hundred units of output, produces two hundred units, then this is a two-fold increase in productivity. Is this salvation for the country? You are mistaken, because if, with the indicated increase in production productivity, the state increases the number of officials, then all officials will eat up the entire increase in production.
        The question of filling: what, when and how much have the Government reduced the cost of maintaining the State. apparatus? Therefore, calls for increased labor productivity are only annoying.
        1. Azis 12 March 2020 19: 58 New
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          Quote: PavelM
          if, with the indicated growth in production productivity, the state will increase the number of officials, then these officials will eat up the entire increase in production
          The President with the administration, the institution of his plenipotentiaries with his own apparatus, the Government with all ministries, departments, agencies, services, Services, but subordinate to the president, the State Duma and the Federation Council with the servants, the Administration of the regions with ministries, departments, missions in other regions and abroad, representative offices of the above in international organizations, the All-Russian Popular Front, the Public Chamber, budget (Duma) parties with their own apparatus, all kinds of funds with os.uchastiem, gos.korporatsii etc, etc. - A list of officials and those who may be assigned to them. can go on forever. The definition of "official" in Google is interesting:
          1. The civil servant with the rank, official rank. 2. The one who conducts his work with cold indifference, without interest, bureaucratically
          You can put an equal sign.
        2. Lannan Shi 12 March 2020 20: 46 New
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          Quote: PavelM
          The question of filling: what, when and how much have the Government reduced the cost of maintaining the State. apparatus?

          Abbreviated? Why would you? They only increase. This year at 150 yards, 3.28 trillion rubles for the maintenance of bureaucrats. The bureaucrats cost the country more than an army with a fleet. Yeah.
      3. Sarmat Sanych 12 March 2020 23: 54 New
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        Chaldon, do you even know how to distinguish industrial production from trade and production? The growth of industrial production in Russia is at least 2% per year for 4 consecutive years, which is almost 5 times higher than the world average of 0,45%.
        All these nonsense about the "raw materials" wash in your room, do not mess up in. https://youtu.be/t4keDCt65Rc
        https://youtu.be/syH_zFAJ8ec
        https://youtu.be/LFm7PyzPrMw
    5. Deniska999 12 March 2020 17: 42 New
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      Now Kudrin does not personally lead politics. And given the current trends, his estimates are quite realistic.
    6. 4ekist 12 March 2020 17: 50 New
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      Thanks to Mr. Kudrin, otherwise we would be ignorant.
    7. Thrifty 12 March 2020 18: 10 New
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      Drive such currenoids from ANY authority! They brought the country to a pen, and cling to power, remnants of the past! Do not give people to live humanly!
    8. Lannan Shi 12 March 2020 20: 25 New
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      Quote: Mavrikiy
      Having the Kudrins in government, there will be (-).

      I’m not kudrin, I can count. So it’s obvious to me that the minus will be anyway. Export of oil, oil products and gas, tied to the price of oil, last year - 235 yards. A one-third drop in oil is minus 80 yards of GDP. About 5%. How I can compensate for this pit, in which industry there is such a jet take-off that you can even go to zero, I personally do not understand. For example, it needs to produce 8 million more cars. Or to collect grain for 400 million tons more. Already funny. Truth?
      1. Sarmat Sanych 13 March 2020 00: 10 New
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        Lannan Shi, Yeah, divorced mother's ikanamists laughing. Of the annual Russian exports of $ 450 billion (on average), oil, petroleum products, petrochemicals, gas, and gas processing account for only 35-37%. Separately, oil 28%. And the budget will not suffer from this ANYTHING, only the cut-off price in the eggplant will suffer. Well, for this, Russia has accumulated some of the world's largest gold reserves of $ 750 billion, so even with an oil price of $ 30 per barrel, we can survive at least 10 years in a row, absolutely not cutting back any budgetary obligations. Learn finance and macroeconomics and tie up clever about nifiga do not understand.
        1. Lannan Shi 13 March 2020 00: 49 New
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          Quote: Sarmat Sanych
          Of the annual Russian exports of $ 450 billion (on average), oil, petroleum products, petrochemicals, gas, and gas processing account for only 35-37%.

          Laponka. Would you be so kind as to proceed to .... No, not where you thought. And on the site of the Federal State Statistics Service. Everything is written in black in Russian. Do not suck the numbers out of your finger. Only oil, petroleum products and gas - 235 yards. And leave your fantasies about percentages.
          Quote: Sarmat Sanych
          And the budget from this will not suffer

          You are our dreamer .... The MET rate is clearly tied to world oil prices. These citizens of Alekperosechin will not suffer in any way. Well, almost no harm. Until oil drops below 28. But all the costs of their exuberant imagination will fall solely on the budget, and not on anyone else. Learn Mlyn materiel, that is, the tax code.
          But in general .. I did not engage in enlightenment of non-education. If you want to eliminate your illiteracy, then to the Internet, and study the legislation with statistics yourself
          Or pay mlyn lessons.
          Dixi.
          1. Sarmat Sanych 13 March 2020 07: 50 New
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            Lannan Shi, did you give a shit? Take off your pantslaughing. Pull up your educational level to speak with me in an equal dialogue. You look at the development with export, you stop confusing and you look at the statistics for 2019. And what the hell MET, ate budgetary obligations and the size of the budget does not depend on them in any way? For this, there is a gigantic Reserve Fund and a cut-off price so that if it is less than $ 42, it should be taken from it, and if it is more, then put off. Stop bullshit about 28, Rosneft has a production cost of $ 11 per barrel, Tatneft $ 8, Lukoil in the region of $ 12. I tell you this as a person who has worked with leading Russian oil and gas builders for a decade and a half, he personally knows the genders of a number of companies.
            1. CSKA 13 March 2020 13: 14 New
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              Quote: Sarmat Sanych
              Rosneft has a production cost of $ 11 per barrel

              Sechin recently said that in some fields it seems even lower.
    9. Nikolay Ivanov_5 12 March 2020 21: 31 New
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      -5
      Ukrainians in social networks are happy with the fall of the ruble and the collapse of oil prices, while Kudrin continues to drive the blizzard.
  2. Honest Citizen 12 March 2020 17: 26 New
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    +19
    According to Kudrin, according to the results of 2020, "economic growth will be about zero."

    Petrov, tell me about new opening production and economic growth "for many months in a row"
    1. Aerodrome 12 March 2020 17: 42 New
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      +5
      Quote: Honest Citizen
      Petrov, tell me about new opening production and economic growth "for many months in a row"

      moves out with those.
      1. bondrostov 12 March 2020 17: 53 New
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        +11
        Petrov is a man at whose sight the hand itself reaches for the gun
      2. Honest Citizen 12 March 2020 18: 16 New
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        moves out with those.

        Well, or not at all. Staying in your dreams next to the fabulous.
        1. Sarmat Sanych 13 March 2020 00: 20 New
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          Citizen, finish whining, read below and not ... do squatting with the Airdrome
      3. Sarmat Sanych 13 March 2020 00: 17 New
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        I’m airdrome, but I’m not leaving for the whiners whining from the couch, I can provide evidence of hundreds of new productions only in the last couple of years. Purely offhand, a list of the largest projects of the Russian Federation: https://ruxpert.ru/
        https://cont.ws/@S1601V3006/1513172
        https://youtu.be/GAZSb2qO9m0
        https://youtu.be/H1JQgDr-oeE https://www.nasha-strana.info/archives/34054
        https://youtu.be/Bnjd6IwCWMU
        https://youtu.be/qiyGTbZEwZE
        https://youtu.be/HiVzzdm5hX0
  3. Werwulf_1989 12 March 2020 17: 27 New
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    +14
    Zero and the economy at the same time.)))
    1. Honest Citizen 12 March 2020 17: 29 New
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      Burnt shed, burn and hut! wassat laughing drinks
    2. Sarmat Sanych 13 March 2020 00: 23 New
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      Werwulf_1989, the entire economy, all $ 4,3 trillion of PPP GDP, the fifth in the world?)) What kind of dull bots went, even climbed into VOlaughing
  4. Magog 12 March 2020 17: 34 New
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    Is “zero” the name of a digit or number? And then what is "zero"?
    1. Aerodrome 12 March 2020 17: 43 New
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      Quote: Magog
      Is “zero” the name of a digit or number? And then what is "zero"?

      it's a zero ... the hole is shorter ...
      1. bondrostov 12 March 2020 17: 54 New
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        +1
        It turns out we are in the hole belay laughing
        1. Mavrikiy 12 March 2020 18: 44 New
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          Quote: bondrostov
          It turns out we are in the hole belay laughing

          Humor is bad, not ours. angry
          However, sorry, if you are there (you know better), then I am here, which I am worried about (the trait of the collectivist, with the whole world).
          1. bondrostov 12 March 2020 19: 00 New
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            And this is not humor, it is bitter sarcasm .. our country recalls a train that has no brakes, the bridge in front of it is destroyed, and there is a cliff. All passengers see this, but prefer to pretend that this is not naive, thinking that it will be. No. Will not manage!
  5. bk316 12 March 2020 17: 35 New
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    +8
    I think Kudrin went wrong.
    Given the coronavirus and the oil war, there will be a minus, 1-1.5%
    If + 1%, I will be very happy.
    1. kjhg 12 March 2020 18: 44 New
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      Quote: bk316
      I think Kudrin went wrong.
      Given the coronavirus and the oil war, there will be a minus, 1-1.5%

      But it seems to me that there will be an even greater drop, minus 3-4%. Oil has fallen too much
      1. bk316 12 March 2020 20: 38 New
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        too much oil has fallen

        While it is not clear where to bounce ..... But maybe 4%
    2. Icarus 12 March 2020 19: 27 New
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      I think Kudrin went wrong.
      Given the coronavirus and the oil war, there will be a minus, 1-1.5%
      If + 1%, I will be very happy.

      No minus will be. You just don’t know how to count. Rosstat will better calculate and report as needed. wink
      1. bk316 12 March 2020 20: 38 New
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        Rosstat will better calculate and report as needed.

        Yes, you do not worry, for you the CIA will count .... laughing
        1. Icarus 14 March 2020 23: 08 New
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          Are you in touch with the CIA? Have you been informed? Or are you a believer? Believer in statistics. The believer does not need proof, because he simply believes in his ideals. I don’t believe either Kudrin or Rosstat. While Kudrin was the deputy prime minister in charge of the economic bloc, the military pension never increased to me, despite inflation. All the time he was an opponent of injecting money into the country's economy and was buying up US securities. He apparently has his own interests there.
  6. Ross xnumx 12 March 2020 17: 35 New
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    +8
    In recent years, such indicators have not been achieved. According to the head of the Accounts Chamber, this year will not succeed.

    Putin is our everything, Chubais is our always, Nabiullina is never ours, Kudrin is our nothing ...
    wink
    1. Ingvar 72 12 March 2020 20: 48 New
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      Our Medvedev 4mo! wassat
  7. Linxs 12 March 2020 17: 35 New
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    -3
    - economic growth at rates that are higher than the world average - that is, at least about 3,6% per year


    Kudrin has good jokes. Maybe someone will wake him and return to reality?
    1. Antidote 12 March 2020 18: 43 New
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      Kudrin does not indicate planned indicators, read the text again. His boss needs to be returned to reality, possibly after 2036.
  8. faterdom 12 March 2020 17: 36 New
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    +9
    Kudrin, okay, he is an amateur expert on this issue with a touch of professionalism. But when the Ministry of Economic Development year after year we set the bar at one percent, racing with the President, who promises 4-5 - I don’t understand! Do they have different countries? Or different economies?
    1. Magog 12 March 2020 17: 40 New
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      Our President is a KGB lawyer. What do you want to hear from him about the economy? And the "Ministry of Economic Development" is the entrance yard ...
      1. UserGun 12 March 2020 19: 04 New
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        Quote: Magog
        What do you want to hear from him about the economy?


        Yeah ... Only fairy tales, in the form of "Strategy 2020")))
    2. mark2 12 March 2020 17: 52 New
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      They have different thinking.
      1. UserGun 12 March 2020 19: 06 New
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        Well, as different ... Sobchak, he, his colleagues say, was very good at oil, metals and other liquidity)))
  9. Overlock 12 March 2020 17: 37 New
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    +14
    ... according to the results of 2020, "the growth of the economy will be about zero."

    And Putin said that key sectors of the economy will come out of the crisis stronger.
    Although, according to the railway workers and the Federal State Statistics Service, the freight turnover has been falling since last spring. It turns out that the economy is stagnating and can easily slide into a recession. Perhaps the virus and the Saudis are the recession trigger
  10. Incomprehensible 12 March 2020 17: 40 New
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    How much is d ****, specifically in this thread. One is more beautiful than the other.
    1. Werwulf_1989 12 March 2020 17: 50 New
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      Well, you should tell us .... now you’ll tell me what a tsarist mnogokhodovochka the Tsar and bad boyars will think!
      1. Incomprehensible 12 March 2020 19: 37 New
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        I won’t even put you a minus, you will disappear myself!
  11. rocket757 12 March 2020 17: 41 New
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    What will not be .... it's okay, but WHAT WILL BE ??? it is important.
    What will happen to inflation? What will happen to industrial production? What will happen to employment ???
    Most importantly, how will we live ..... or will we SURVIVE anyway? Matches and salt already stock up?
    It’s “funny” to talk about it, although it’s possible to “cry”. COUNTRY for most vital positions SELF-SUFFICIENT !!! We just can’t live poorly, but it remains only ghostly dreams .... but the smaller, most “valuable, important” part of the country's inhabitants does not live very badly and is going to live even better!
    Is this a paradox or something else ???
    1. yang174 12 March 2020 19: 34 New
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      what about employment? It’s approved the replacement by labor migrants of labor collectives for such a normal percentage. Look yourself online (litter that you, a habit)
      1. rocket757 12 March 2020 19: 49 New
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        +1
        Not everything is so obvious .... we don’t take such companies at all, because even garbage collection is largely mechanized. Unless in the summer, in the "workshop" which is engaged in gardening and other things on the street. And so at ALL factories of the city, where the salary is higher than that of that private trader.
        What remains, seasonal workers .... in the city, all the streets were repaired, that's for sure, the style and conversation are in a different way. Buildings, cottages, peasant affairs ... also seasonal, although there are a couple of farms where visitors are. But they really settled here, they bought houses and the children go to our school.
        It turns out that they are going to a place where obviously there are not enough workers or the locals are not going very well because of low salaries.
        In short, everything is not so simple, but they are definitely not competitors to the skilled workforce!
        1. rocket757 12 March 2020 19: 56 New
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          +3
          PS ... I want to add. We have a young guy, with a diploma, went to work .... his qualifications, by our standards, are not much higher than the baseboard, he worked for us at the lowest level!
          So there, in the north, he worked as a MASTER, led the teams of just those guys from the south .....
          He earned money, but he came back and asked for it .... he said that he could no longer see them, and he wanted to learn some more, finally ... but they couldn’t force him before, raise his qualifications. Like this.
          1. yang174 12 March 2020 21: 21 New
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            ))) in Chelyabinsk, minibuses drove and builders. janitors. here if there were no Gaster, decent wages and working conditions. and everything is clear, and not a finger to the sky. so they are not needed in Russia. and some, normally making of them the price tag is the same as the local ones, and already have citizenship and families transported. about your guy, he doesn’t get through his head, he’ll get through his hands
  12. The Siberian barber 12 March 2020 17: 41 New
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    The valuation of the ruble ... Exchange quotes .. Etc., etc. ..... "cute" ear witty formulations ...
    If only once confessed honestly: "Well, I could not shmog!")))
    ... "in general, I consider the work of the government satisfactory" © laughing
  13. Andobor 12 March 2020 17: 49 New
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    +1
    The world average of 3,6%, this year will definitely not be, and therefore 0 may turn out to be a good result.
  14. venik 12 March 2020 17: 49 New
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    -5
    I can’t understand one thing: Well, why the "vegetable" (horseradish in the sense) - gives comments on this "pig" ??? On his forehead in large letters it says: "GRANTOED" !!!!!
    Well, WHY pull out all this "Soros gang" HERE?
    Just so that the moderators could "ban" someone?
    ---
    News ten "cons" !!!
    1. Alf
      Alf 12 March 2020 19: 45 New
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      Quote: venik
      Well, WHY pull out all this "Soros gang" HERE?

      Let’s write about how many percent of the growth the Russian economy gave last year. Just something tells me that instead of the article there will be an empty place.
      1. venik 12 March 2020 20: 10 New
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        Quote: Alf
        Let’s write about how many percent of the growth the Russian economy gave last year. Just something tells me that instead of the article there will be an empty place.

        ========
        Well, if you take the per capita GDP of the Russian Federation in PPPs (if you certainly know what it is), then it turns out very interesting:

        A source: IMF WEO date: January 2020
        1. Alf
          Alf 12 March 2020 20: 13 New
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          Of course, I understand that everything is growing, but for some reason even the Kremlin propagandists say which year it is about 1%, and how they said last year that this percentage appeared only because the Russians began to interfere in more loans.
  15. askort154 12 March 2020 17: 51 New
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    +1
    Again, "about zero." Kudrin gave a forecast for the economic growth of the Russian Federation for 2020.

    Alyoshenka, what a terrible pessimist you are. The country has been going strictly since 1991
    in your Gaidar-Kudro-Yasinsky direction in a market economy. You, even the United States, have been awarded the title of best accountant in the World. And you groan every year, we are again "about zero".
    "Where is the money, Zin ?!" negative
  16. samarin1969 12 March 2020 17: 52 New
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    +8
    Well, this is more likely not a forecast, but a report of a pathologist.
    Mr. Kudrin would have better written himself a diagnosis: how can a resource-rich country with an educated population be completely dependent on “bubbles”, viruses, global speculators, and demand for fuel and lubricants? !! ​​... Why then do you need this “bookkeeper”. Any grandmother from the market can voice a similar forecast.

    It is necessary, as Celentano in the famous film, to save on economists. All they can do is explain solidly why their predictions did not come true.
  17. GABALIS 12 March 2020 18: 03 New
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    -9
    Yesterday, millions of virologist experts worked on the network for wear, but today they are awakened by oil traders and experts in financial markets! stop
  18. PavelM 12 March 2020 18: 11 New
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    "... Again," near zero ": Kudrin gave a forecast ..."
    = Actually, “near zero” sounds nicer!
  19. Honest Citizen 12 March 2020 18: 19 New
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    Quote: samarin1969

    It is necessary, as Celentano in the famous film, to save on economists. All they can do is explain solidly why their predictions did not come true.

    You can’t save on Kudrin and Chubais. Partners do not understand, sir! laughing
    1. New Year day 12 March 2020 18: 29 New
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      Quote: Honest Citizen
      You cannot save on Kudrin and Chubais

      Just for them you don’t have to worry;
      But we should think about how to survive the troubled times.
  20. fif21 12 March 2020 18: 25 New
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    My forecast for the year 20 is -2-3%, this is still optimistic. Fall: consumer demand, bankruptcy of tour operators, curtailment of investment programs in the oil and gas sector, rising import prices, rising inflation .... the whole set of crisis in the economy. And this is not about personalities, but about the incurable disease of the capitalist model of the economy. Competition, overstock, crisis. The West is already used to these cycles, and we are still getting used to it. hi
  21. Hypatius 12 March 2020 18: 33 New
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    +2
    Optimist! The global crisis is rolling, and we have already climbed into it. How many reserves did Medvedev burn for the US mortgage crisis? Half ?! Now pay more. Moreover, at the beginning of the crisis, the coronovirus and the greed of Russia, in the person of Sechin, will be blamed. I don’t give a damn that the stock markets are overheated and the bubble must be burst, political economy is not in honor.
    PS If amendments are needed, it is only about the nationalization of the private Central Bank.
    1. yang174 12 March 2020 19: 36 New
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      we have not climbed out of it .. since 2008 ..
      1. Hypatius 12 March 2020 19: 43 New
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        we have not climbed out of it .. since 2008 ..
        The people (we) may not have climbed out laughing or crawled out. But the gold reserves of the NWF were filled up! We can pay for the next crisis of globalism (read here: the highest stage of capitalism).
  22. Xenofont 12 March 2020 18: 39 New
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    +5
    The Stabilizer crept unnoticed ... Give in to Sechin's persuasion and drive the country into a “tailspin”! In as it should: people endure, but what a prospect!
    1. UserGun 12 March 2020 19: 08 New
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      Quote: Xenofont
      but what a perspective!


      What? Again? Strategy 2040 ?! )))
  23. 23424636 12 March 2020 19: 06 New
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    I don’t know what to say. It is simply surprising why this animal is kept on the pulse of the economy. If your business is to be controlled so that it is not stolen. Then talk about yourself and not about the economy. Typically, when the price falls, the products sag and new opportunities open up for export. But this accountant has something wrong. In D N R, the Vneshtorservis group led by Kurchenko (cashier of Yanukovych) caused enormous damage to the entire industry where they trained leaving behind unpaid bills and unpaid salaries. The experiment with tax holidays that lasted with the death of Zakharchenko (he forbade Kurchenko to be free and taxed) did not lead Donbass to nothing. Now they are trying to do something. But the same people and their goal, the Driban, are not an objection to the glory of the industrial Donbass.
  24. businessv 12 March 2020 19: 22 New
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    "Numerous financial and credit bubbles may begin to burst in China's economy and other markets."
    This postulate can be used without the word "may"! They will certainly burst due to the fact that the celestial economy, according to experts, will receive about 1% only in the first quarter, and this is $ 143,1 billion - a lot of money! It is not yet clear how situevine will develop further with the virus.
  25. exo
    exo 12 March 2020 19: 39 New
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    No need to worry. Rosstat, will draw the "correct" figure. And inflation will indicate, according to the order and the "new calculation methodology"
  26. bocman grek 12 March 2020 19: 52 New
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    If the people at the top developed industry. And oil refining, the percentage would be 10
    1. bk316 12 March 2020 20: 43 New
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      the percentage would be 10

      Where does 10% come from? This year this planet Earth will not be anywhere ....
  27. evgen1221 12 March 2020 20: 00 New
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    +1
    It seems that the concern for raising the country's gdp has been shifted by our authorities to our comrades, and probably someday, led by.
  28. Shahno 12 March 2020 20: 02 New
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    Quote: Sarmat Sanych
    Inkgvar 72, and if you don’t whine on the Internet and think, you can remove the saucepan from your headlaughing.
    Let it be known that per capita output per capita in Russia and the United States is Odinakov (go to Cia Cia Factbook website, subtract the share of services in each of the economies from the GDP per capita and are surprised).
    In terms of industrial production (in $ PPP), Russia in 2018-2019 takes 4th place in the world (and 1st place in Europe).
    In general, if we are not talking about industrial production but about gross product, then the GDP of most countries that occupy the top lines of world leadership has long been formed not due to the real sector, but due to price speculation. And this is very convenient, because thanks to such an assessment, it is completely unnecessary to admit that Russia in 2019 is ahead of Britain, Italy, France and the Federal Republic of Germany in terms of real production, and Canada is three times superior. It is much more pleasant to say that the GDP of the Russian Federation in current dollars (at face value) is comparable to the GDP of Canada and inferior to English, formed due to the wonders of virtual statistics.
    With regards to the United States, their 85% of GDP consists of manipulating company quotes on the exchange, plus the machine tool and the service sector. In the statistics of GDP, the states even include the estimated rental income from buildings built earlier in 2 centuries (official facts, I emphasize), while some of these buildings, facilities and structures are not rented by anyone. A barrel of oil in the United States when it comes to refining is bought up on the stock exchange a dozen times, and each kaz the final figure is plus GDP, even Bloomberg analysts wrote about this, they were fucking crazy about such "miracles"))). The real sector accounts for only about 15% of US GDP, while Russia has in our PPP GDP of $ 4,3 trillion (5th in the world), the real sector accounts for about 90%. If you look at the Western "highs", take a look at the powerful American industry ", you will see that Caterpillar, Gm and Ford are on the verge of bankruptcy, coal and shale companies have collapsed and disappeared by 70%, Boeing suffers constant losses and is on the verge of extinction, Westinghouse went bankrupt and squandered to a small company producing Mox fuel, etc. Meanwhile, Rosatom is building 68% of the new nuclear power plants on the planet and controlling 50% of the world uranium enrichment marketgood.
    It’s not even worth talking about the current British, French and Italian industry. Britain, in comparison with the 80s, has not produced nicherta for a long time.
    Finally, only two numbers:
    1). Production capacities of Russia over the past 10 years have been updated by 75%, data from leading international institutions in confirmation
    2). In 1991, all ports of the 290 million Union with its 15 republics handled 800 million tons of products per year, and now only the ports of one 147 million Russia transship about 1 billion tons of products per year.

    Well, the forecast is about zero. Once again, Russia does not develop production.
  29. Karaul73 12 March 2020 20: 19 New
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    Quote: Mavrikiy
    Again "near zero": Kudrin gave a forecast on the economic growth of the Russian Federation for 2020
    Today, 17: 22
    Having the Kudrins in government, there will be (-). angry

    Drive more to Syria, Donbass, to the arms race, to cheers, and get an o-very large zero with a minus sign. And more in the management of effective managers. They will help everyone.
    1. bk316 12 March 2020 20: 45 New
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      in an arms race

      The arms race is developing promo, so you decide whether to develop industrial production or not.
      About the conversion and production of titanium pans, you don’t need it, you will not find so much money in 404 to buy them. And nobody needs them anymore. laughing
  30. Karaul73 12 March 2020 22: 39 New
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    Quote: bk316
    in an arms race

    The arms race is developing promo, so you decide whether to develop industrial production or not.
    About the conversion and production of titanium pans, you don’t need it, you will not find so much money in 404 to buy them. And nobody needs them anymore. laughing

    Russia has nuclear weapons. Nobody will get into trouble. Instead of titanium pans, pour titanium eggs to your leadership to defend the interests of the country and put thieves in jail.
  31. pepel 12 March 2020 22: 40 New
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    +1
    Interesting. on this "cassandra" there is a "Roman legionnaire"? wassat
  32. VLADIMIR VLADIVOSTOK 12 March 2020 23: 28 New
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    What predictions can he give? Bandit- fool listen. And most importantly, what a foolish person publishes the statement of such morons.
    1. Kronos 13 March 2020 00: 19 New
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      0
      So he is part of the government
  33. Aleks2000 13 March 2020 00: 23 New
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    And not for the first time ....
    will change the director of Rosstat, and there will be 1,5% of GDP growth or something else ....

    And a bunch of posts and videos "made with us" ...
  34. Alexey Polyakh 13 March 2020 00: 34 New
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    Quote: Sarmat Sanych
    IXION, where is it getting poorer? Russians annually buy 90 million square meters of new housing and 1,8 million of new cars only (reports of the IMF, RCC and the Association of European Businesses in confirmation). )))


    Buyers will “buy” in 15 years. And before that they will live on - Bread-Water, giving half the salary for a loan, plus a communal apartment ...
  35. Ura Orlov 13 March 2020 06: 36 New
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    And you can also allow democracy in Russia
  36. sanik2020 13 March 2020 12: 27 New
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    But when did Kudrin's forecasts come true?
  37. ZVS
    ZVS 13 March 2020 12: 45 New
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    So Putin puts the Russian economy in the top five. wink
    Now it will again repeat, like a mantra, that the damned foreign partners are to blame for the fact that the Russian economy is ... opera. Again, everyone will be to blame, but not he and the government.
  38. sleeve 13 March 2020 16: 26 New
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    But I don’t remember something, so that the forecast of this respected person would come true with some real meaningfulness at least once. Well, with the exception of the phrases “something will be in the spring” or “they will certainly be stolen” ...