A blow to Erdogan's ambitions: the Syrian army is preparing to occupy the entire Idlib


Troops loyal to Bashar al-Assad continue the attack on Idlib. If they nevertheless take the center of the province, then the situation and the balance of power in this region of Syria will radically change. What will this mean for Turkey, which is doing everything possible to prevent the capture of Idlib?


On the night of February 8, the Syrian Arab army continued its offensive in the southern region of Aleppo governorate. The military loyal to Bashar al-Assad managed to capture several important points, including those located on the Aleppo-Damascus highway. By clearing the country's most important highway from militants, the SAA is close to reopening the highway connecting the southern and northern parts of Syria.

A day earlier, the city of Sarakib in Idlib was occupied by the Syrian Arab army. The remnants of the Khayyat Tahrir al-Sham militants defending the city (banned in the Russian Federation) were forced to retreat from the strategically important area. The successes of the Syrian government forces make us think about the further development of events in Idlib. It is possible that the SAA will still be able to oust the militants and take control of this area and the city.

The events in Idlib are extremely worried in Turkey. February 7 to the border with Syria were transferred Tanks and artillery of the Turkish ground forces, and columns of special forces of Turkey went to Idlib itself. Why else do I need Turkish special forces in Idlib, except for confronting the Syrian Arab army?


For Turkey, the loss of control over Idlib can be seen as a strategic loss. Bashar al-Assad is approaching to regain control of the country's territory, including its northern sections, which the Turkish leadership does not like at all. But what other prospects does Turkey have, given that Russia continues to support the Syrian Arab army?

In Turkey itself, the position of Recep Erdogan raises more and more questions. So, it was sharply criticized by the leader of the largest opposition force - the Kemalist People's Republican Party of Turkey, Kemal Kılıçdaroлуlu.

The government should abandon policies aimed at regime change in Syria, as well as cooperation with groups that threaten its territorial integrity,

- Kylychdaroglu stressed.

Of course, Recep Erdogan, known for his authoritarianism and ambitiousness, will not follow the opposition’s lead. Now he justifies the need for a Turkish presence in northern Syria with a humanitarian catastrophe in Idlib. From Idlib, up to a million Syrian refugees approached the Turkish borders, according to Erdogan.

But it can be forced to change its position on Idlib by both the successful offensive of the Syrian government forces, and Russia's unchanged course to protect the territorial integrity of Syria. In the end, Turkey is not ready for a full-scale war in Syria, knowing full well that it will also have to face Russia, at least on the economic front. By the way, Erdogan himself acknowledged this, noting the importance of such projects as Turkish Stream and the construction of a nuclear power plant in Akkuyu.


But the "Sultan Erdogan", as the Western press calls him, is not going to leave Syria. The presence of Turkish troops is just the tip of the iceberg of Turkish politics in Syria. So, Erdogan seeks to change the ethnic picture in the regions of the country occupied by Turkey - to push out the Kurds and Arabs, to form compact enclaves for the Turks - Syrian Turkmens close to the Turks in language and culture. In areas under the control of the Turkish military, Turkish lira is in circulation, and schools are introduced according to Turkish standards.

Now, one of the likely scenarios for the further development of events is the Idlib deal between Erdogan and Putin. Allegedly, the Turkish army will cease to support the militants, and in response, Russia will make certain concessions in other areas, for example, in Libya.


However, this prospect looks very vague, given that for Erdogan and his entourage, the situation in Syria is somewhat more than just politics and economics. This is a matter of prestige, a question of the revival of Turkey as a power capable of promoting and protecting its interests and aspiring to a special place in the post-Ottoman space.

Therefore, the capture by the Syrian Arab army of Idlib will be a very unpleasant event for Erdogan - a blow. It turns out that all efforts to maintain control over this area were futile, as well as the casualties among the Turkish military were in vain. And, of course, the capture of Idlib will hit the neo-Ottoman ambitions of the Turkish president.
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  1. DMB 75 8 February 2020 12: 13 New
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    Bashar al-Assad is approaching to regain control of the country's territory, including its northern sections, which the Turkish leadership does not like at all.

    It’s high time to crush this viper in order not to creep out from there.
    1. 1959ain 8 February 2020 12: 34 New
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      Quote: DMB 75
      It’s high time to crush this viper in order not to creep out from there.

      Let’s beat everyone. The United States announced an air operation in Syria. The US State Department issued a statement on the start of support for Turkey in the operation launched against the Syrian army.
      Support will be provided only from the air. The United States intends to use its aircraft, located in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Turkey itself. Also, participation in the operation of other NATO countries is not ruled out (approx. Apparently for this reason, the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle with F-16 fighters approached the Syrian coast). The United Kingdom also declared the inadmissibility of Damascus’s actions, but has not yet announced its participation. As the US State Department explains, their main goal in the operation is to prevent the so-called moderate opposition from being ousted from Idlib territory and to exclude the Syrian army from entering Idlib. that the United States may face is Syria’s active use of its air defense systems. It is the S-300 and Pantsiri-C1 complexes that currently prevent Turkey from conducting a full-scale air operation. Moreover, due to the fact that Russia imposed a ban on Ankara’s use of Syrian airspace, our airborne forces are actively “dropping” Turkish fighters from the territory by intercepting. Whether the United States decides to send its aircraft can be seen very soon. But the most interesting is whether the Syrians are ready to use the S-300 against American fighters. stop
      1. maiman61 8 February 2020 12: 53 New
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        I heard how the US threatened North. Korea, Iran hellish military strikes! But they got the hare and calmed down! As long as the mattress-beds are not given according to the ha, they will not calm down.
      2. Lamata 8 February 2020 12: 53 New
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        But what is f 16 in the marine version? In general, I have not heard that France would use Amer’s weapons, especially aircraft. Enlighten.
        1. 1959ain 8 February 2020 12: 57 New
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          Quote: Lamata
          But what is f 16 in the marine version?

          There is a base in friendly Jordan, there are a bunch of bases in friendly Arab countries, from where they will bomb f 16, Israel is already bombing.
          1. Lamata 8 February 2020 13: 02 New
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            Apparently for this reason, the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle with F-16 fighter jets approached the Syrian coast) - from the comment of 1959 ain, this surprised me. and yes, from land bases easily.
            1. 1959ain 8 February 2020 13: 16 New
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              Voice of America: According to Jens Laerke, representative of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 3 million civilians are now trapped inside Idlib - people literally have nowhere to flee to save themselves from death. Laerke warned that if the offensive continues, then another 280 urban residents in Idlib will be forced to flee the region. The UN calls for an immediate halt to hostilities, otherwise many civilians in the province could die.
              1. Lamata 8 February 2020 13: 29 New
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                let them turn to Erdogan and the barmaley. Assad in his own right
                1. tkoh 8 February 2020 17: 11 New
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                  The right to destroy the population of the country, which he allegedly leads?
                  1. Lamata 8 February 2020 18: 51 New
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                    Comrade, where Assad kills civilians, maybe the other side, do not be like C. Palwell with his test tube. Terrorites and Turks are in the idlib, and these are the territories of Syria.
                    1. tkoh 8 February 2020 20: 31 New
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                      Terrorists have long been defeated several times
                      1. Lamata 8 February 2020 21: 26 New
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                        They are like cockroaches. But they can’t be dust. White helmets on the alert.
        2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Dima_Anlim 8 February 2020 13: 14 New
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        If everything is so brewed as you write, then the S-300 will not be destroyed by the Americans and Turks, the Israelis will destroy them with the help of their aircraft and planning bombs. They have long been waiting for a reason. Secondly, Russia will not go to an open military conflict against the United States and Co., this is clear even to a baby. By outraged at the UN and all.
      4. Lipchanin 8 February 2020 14: 21 New
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        Quote: 1959ain
        Are the Syrians ready to use the S-300 against American fighters?

        GDP will give the go-ahead, immediately apply
      5. Alexey Sommer 8 February 2020 19: 02 New
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        Quote: 1959ain
        approached the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle with F-16 fighters

        Stupid penguin timidly hides a fat body in the cliffs ... (C)
        Strongly about F16 on de Gaulle)
        1. Old Michael 8 February 2020 20: 02 New
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          Stupid penguin shyly hides ...

          Smart - boldly bored!
      6. Voltsky 9 February 2020 11: 57 New
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        Nonsense is all, there is no necessary information background ... and the fact that the French sent something, well, Macron, he is not some kind of hell from the mountain, but Macron himself (at least he wants to think so). And the statement of the Americans, they often say that they have such a chip. But of course we must remember that the Americans can afford more than the Turks and they will not be anything for it. But why ?! What Turkey can offer in return, and generally what the Americans are asking for for such a small service. If, of course, this is not North Atlantic solidarity, then a small festive salute will take place throughout Syria and everyone will run away happy, as the day has passed.
    2. Chervonny 8 February 2020 12: 59 New
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      It's time. If the Syrian army takes Idlib it will be perhaps one of the most important victories of the alliance of Syria and Russia. A moral and political blow will be dealt to the prestige of the two-faced Janus Erdogan. The article correctly states that the operation to capture Idlib "will strike at the Turkish president’s non-Ottoman ambitions."
      1. flicker 8 February 2020 20: 35 New
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        The article correctly states that the operation to capture Idlib "will strike at the Turkish president’s non-Ottoman ambitions."
        If only for "ambition", this is the end for Erdogan in the truest sense of the word.
        Enormous amounts of money "American taxpayers" spent on Turkey turning off the secular path of development and turning towards neo-Ottomanism. A warlike Turkey was needed, and this is Turkey of neo-Ottomanism. The first stage is to deploy Turkey, the second is to bring to power a decisive (nationalist-minded) tyrant - which we see in the person of Erdogan.
        Erdogans refusal to fight means that the money of "American taxpayers" will go to waste.
        So if Idlib doesn’t hold his end. bully
        Only our help and we can save him.
      2. ANB
        ANB 9 February 2020 00: 32 New
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        "will hit the non-Ottoman ambitions of the Turkish president."

        In my opinion, the main thing for Erdogan in Syria was to pinch the tail of the Kurds. He did it.
        And the rest is a subject for bargaining.
    3. Sergey39 8 February 2020 13: 17 New
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      We are waiting for the capture of Idlib!
  2. 1959ain 8 February 2020 12: 16 New
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    The bars are fighting, and the lads are cracking at the lads. World War I, the Turkish and Russian Empire collapsed, Trump claps his hands, again the Indians pitted winked
    1. Adam Khomich 8 February 2020 12: 39 New
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      Firstly, the bar will be right! Secondly! Are you talking about blankets infected with smallpox and destroyed herds of bison that destroyed the indigenous people of the North American continent? So for over two hundred years, a bunch of criminals under the auspices of the SGA has not changed! Only the means of destroying opponents have changed.
      1. 1959ain 8 February 2020 12: 42 New
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        Read above
        The U.S. announced an air operation in Syria. The U.S. Department of State issued a statement saying it would begin supporting Turkey in an ongoing operation against the Syrian army.
        Soon there the horns of our legs may not remain
        1. Kabaev 8 February 2020 13: 15 New
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          A year ago, it was US aviation that blew our PMC convoy along Day Re Zor
        2. Lipchanin 8 February 2020 14: 24 New
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          Quote: 1959ain
          Soon there the horns of our legs may not remain

          Well, why rejoice?
        3. Gost2012 8 February 2020 15: 10 New
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          Quote: 1959ain
          Read above
          The U.S. announced an air operation in Syria. The U.S. Department of State issued a statement saying it would begin supporting Turkey in an ongoing operation against the Syrian army.
          Soon there the horns of our legs may not remain


          it depends who yours are ..
  3. knn54 8 February 2020 12: 25 New
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    The Yankees and Co. are interested in Idlib (the creation of Chaos). And there the barmalei are not only pro-Turkish.
    The appearance of the "white helmets", which is so loved in the West, is alarming.
    1. Arlen 8 February 2020 13: 07 New
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      Quote: knn54
      The appearance of the "white helmets", which is so loved in the West, is alarming.

      Nowadays everything can be expected from the world gendarme and the main imperialist planet. Arranging a provocation to launch air strikes against Syria in order to thwart an attack on Idlib and thereby help the terrorists and Turkey is very easy for them.
      For Turkey, the loss of control over Idlib can be seen as a strategic loss.

      Erdogan lost when he got into an intrigue to create a neo-Ottoman empire and recreate Turkish influence. He miscalculated when he imagined himself to be the greatest politician and strategist.
  4. Cowbra 8 February 2020 12: 29 New
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    Erdogan has an extremely precarious situation - in fact, he has no allies. NATO and the EU after the development of deposits in Cyprus and the EU blackmail refugees - Erdogan stupid ENEMIES. The USA, too, they even tried to push it. Iran is a competitor in the region ... China, at least, does not need a strong center in the BV, it can cut off the “belt and path” project.
    He needs to cling to the RF with his hands and feet - they will crush him differently, but he plays the fool. They’ll kill
    1. 1959ain 8 February 2020 12: 47 New
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      Quote: Cowbra
      Erdogan has an extremely precarious situation - in fact, he has no allies. NATO and the EU after the development of deposits in Cyprus and the EU blackmail refugees - Erdogan stupid ENEMIES. The USA, too, they even tried to push it. Iran is a competitor in the region ... China, at least, does not need a strong center in the BV, it can cut off the “belt and path” project.
      He needs to cling to the RF with his hands and feet - they will crush him differently, but he plays the fool. They’ll kill

      For this, the Chinese are for us. China: Terrorists must be decisively suppressed in Syrian Idlib
      Terrorist groups in northwestern Syria should be “resolutely suppressed” in accordance with relevant UN Security Council resolutions, said Wu Haitao, China’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the World Organization, on Friday evening, reports the Xinhua state news agency. Yes, but will the Chinese push them there or should someone else? They did not even bring coronovirus to Turkey.
      The United States intends to use its aircraft, located in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Turkey itself. Also, participation in the operation of other NATO countries is not ruled out (approx. Apparently for this reason, the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle with F-16 fighters approached the Syrian coast). The United Kingdom also declared the inadmissibility of Damascus’s actions, but hasn’t yet announced its participation.
    2. Simple 8 February 2020 13: 03 New
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      Quote: Cowbra
      Erdogan has an extremely precarious position ...


      Therefore, it will be possible to lower all dogs in the future.
      And now he has cards in his hands.
      The USA and the West will wait on the side.
      1. Cowbra 8 February 2020 13: 10 New
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        This is strange. Why is this necessary for example the USA - I understand. And why the hell is Erdogan, is he an old, experienced kamikaze?
        1. Simple 8 February 2020 13: 17 New
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          I think he knows about it. smile

          Turkish Idlib - the West will shrug only - there are no refugees, to the peak of Russia and Assad, "who should leave"

          For now, perhaps, both sides will plow the territory as an argument for new negotiations on Idlib.
    3. Arlen 8 February 2020 13: 09 New
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      Quote: Cowbra
      he fools around. They’ll kill

      No matter how wild it sounds, but I will absolutely not feel sorry for him. You asked for it.
      1. Lipchanin 8 February 2020 14: 27 New
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        Quote: Arlen
        No matter how wild it sounds, but I will absolutely not feel sorry for him.

        Yes, I don’t know who is sorry for him at all.
    4. Lamata 8 February 2020 19: 32 New
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      he is ottoman. pride does not allow
  5. rocket757 8 February 2020 12: 32 New
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    Where will the bunch of barmaley go who don’t want to return to civilian life? The Turks, on their territory they are not needed .... they will transit them to other places, at their discretion.
    1. Arlen 8 February 2020 13: 10 New
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      Quote: rocket757
      Where will the bunch of barmaley go

      Turkey may send them to Africa or worse to Central Asia.
      1. Lipchanin 8 February 2020 14: 27 New
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        Quote: Arlen
        or worse to Central Asia.

        Probably...
    2. cniza 9 February 2020 13: 42 New
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      Quote: rocket757
      Where will the bunch of barmaley go who don’t want to return to civilian life? The Turks, on their territory they are not needed .... they will transit them to other places, at their discretion.


      Only for disposal, there is no other way ...
      1. rocket757 9 February 2020 13: 47 New
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        The Sultan would not have become one if he had not been hit!
        You can also dispose of it to the benefit of yourself, at least try.
        1. cniza 9 February 2020 13: 49 New
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          Yes, it’s not bad through Libya ...
          1. rocket757 9 February 2020 13: 57 New
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            Who seeks will always find! Especially when he creates such opportunities.
            This is no longer tricked, this is a tricky politician ....
  6. Zaurbek 8 February 2020 12: 34 New
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    For everything else, the Turks are not profitable. There will be a bunch of refugees and a bunch of bandits who will come to Turkey
    1. Adam Khomich 8 February 2020 12: 46 New
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      All the will of Allah! Erdogan would have stayed in power, not engaged in the seizure of Syrian lands! There are no pockets in the coffin!
  7. Xenofont 8 February 2020 12: 48 New
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    It’s time to increase the number of fighters on Khmeimim, because the threats of the Merikos are real. Unless, of course, Putin has no agreements with "partners." The real moment of truth. The Turks have already launched a new convoy of more than 300 pieces of equipment, including tanks, in Idlib.
  8. Operator 8 February 2020 12: 53 New
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    The Russian-Turkish deal Syria in exchange for Libya is quite realistic, because in the end Turkey will have direct access to large hydrocarbon reserves in Libya, and Russia will get rid of all the militants in Syria.
    1. protoss 8 February 2020 18: 10 New
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      unrealistic because our role in Libya is secondary, we are there only at the helm of the UAE.
    2. Lamata 8 February 2020 21: 29 New
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      Hmm, and our internet in Libya, there is oil and gas and something we did, and the railways and military equipment, again on credit.
      1. Operator 8 February 2020 21: 37 New
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        Turks will control the return.
  9. Lamata 8 February 2020 12: 55 New
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    In general, the second Afghan and a very long time.
  10. Dima_Anlim 8 February 2020 13: 09 New
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    I’m afraid the next time they want to remove Erdogan again by another coup, Russia will no longer warn and help. There are not many palaces in the Rostov Region with guards like Yanukovych, there’s not even a place for Lukashenko, especially since Dodon will need to be settled there soon.
    1. Lamata 8 February 2020 16: 38 New
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      Firs sticks, why Rostov)))) let them go to Oymyakon go. Deer.
    2. Isim soyad 8 February 2020 17: 05 New
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      Putin, Erdogan did not save for beautiful eyes. Slightly that, many write about a downed fighter right away, some without knowing the truth, and some knowing they simply create provocation, hostility and / or hatred of the Turks.
      Before the presidency, in Turkey, the pilot had the right, "at his discretion, without the order of the highest, to open fire in case of threat to the state." And this pilot shot down the Russian Su-24, on the orders of Feto / USA, to quarrel with the Russian Federation, and with the GDP. There was preparation for a coup. That there would be no support from GDP.
      And they wanted to remove Erdogan, because he did not give the green light to the “MILITARY CONFLICT WITH IRAN” !!! He did not support this, he refused Turkey's participation in this, and the use of the army and airfields in Turkey. In a word, if today, while there is no IIR war, this is thanks to Erdogan. But Feto, a US agent and the organizer of the coup, gave the go-ahead for all of this, and that’s why the Americans wanted to make him sit down. And after Iran, which country would be next, you probably guess for yourself. So, GDP, Edik, not because of Edik saved. And because of myself, the Russian Federation and the IIR.
  11. Livonetc 8 February 2020 14: 07 New
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    Turkomanov to his historical homeland.
  12. Robert Korsunsky 8 February 2020 14: 22 New
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    Putin will have to choose with whom he is, with Erdogan, or with Assad. Do not sit on two chairs! Erdogan is a tough and cunning politician. So "surprises" for the Russian Federation are quite possible.
    1. ultra 8 February 2020 14: 35 New
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      Quote: Robert Korsunsky
      Putin will have to choose with whom he is, with Erdogan, or with Assad.

      I haven’t laughed for so long! laughing laughing
    2. cniza 9 February 2020 13: 41 New
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      It’s for them to choose with whom they are, and we with our army and navy. lol
  13. Ramzay121 8 February 2020 14: 43 New
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    Do not be naive, no one will give Idlib. The best option for the SAA is to turn around and go back before they are all smashed. Kindergarten arranged here.
    1. cniza 9 February 2020 13: 39 New
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      Of course they don’t want to give, the army must take ...
  14. Vladimir Mashkov 8 February 2020 17: 03 New
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    If what is said in the article is correct, then this is great! It only seems that there will be no complete liberation of Idlib from the greens this time. Although the M5 highway will be freed.
  15. Isim soyad 8 February 2020 17: 06 New
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    Slightly that, many write about a downed fighter right away, some without knowing the truth, and some knowing they simply create provocation, hostility and / or hatred of the Turks. Putin, Erdogan did not save for beautiful eyes.

    Before the presidency, in Turkey, the pilot had the right, "at his discretion, without the order of the highest, to open fire in case of threat to the state." And this pilot shot down the Russian Su-24, on the orders of Feto / USA, to quarrel with the Russian Federation, and with the GDP. There was preparation for a coup. That there would be no support from GDP.

    And they wanted to remove Erdogan, because he did not give the green light to the “MILITARY CONFLICT WITH IRAN” !!!
    He did not support this, he refused Turkey's participation in this, and the use of the army and airfields in Turkey. In a word, if today, while there is no IIR war, this is thanks to Erdogan. But Feto, the agent of the United States, and the organizer of the coup, gave the go-ahead for all this, and that’s why the Americans wanted to make him sit down. And after Iran, which country would be next, you probably guess for yourself. So, GDP, Edik, not because of Edik saved. And because of myself, the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
  16. polk26l 9 February 2020 15: 19 New
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    Assad does not need to drag out the purification of Idlib, and then the north-east of Syria, where the Americans are now! This is the legitimate territory of Syria and he has the right to cleanse it of enemies !, and illegal foreign troops! Russia must help Syria, because this is a matter of honor! The faster they clear the territory of terrorists and invaders, the faster peace will come!
  17. flicker 9 February 2020 16: 21 New
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    In Turkey itself, the position of Recep Erdogan raises more and more questions. So, it was sharply criticized by the leader of the largest opposition force - the Kemalist People's Republican Party of Turkey, Kemal Kılıçdaroлуlu.
    Yes, the question is, what development path should Turkey take: 1) the revival of the neo-Ottoman Empire - the occupation of neighboring lands (read: wars), 2) the secular development path, along which Turkey took a long time until it began to unfold (pour in unmeasured funds "taxpayers") towards neo-Ottomanism overseas "friends".
  18. otstoy 9 February 2020 16: 44 New
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    VO articles are becoming increasingly inadequate.
  19. aliev58 10 February 2020 21: 41 New
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    Finish this adder is no doubt! Something tells me that this already happened in 1945. And how shtamokov shtatovskikh rescued fascists in rat burrows from retaliation of the Soviet Army.
  20. The comment was deleted.
  21. kutuz 13 February 2020 23: 19 New
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    “If they nevertheless take the center of the province” - but what, are there doubts? You can rest assured if you need to take it and they won’t ask anyone, and there’s nothing for them. But do not forget Russia will be able to give a decent answer! - prohibit the import of tomatoes from Turkey, and vacationers will fly on vacation not directly but through Minsk (if the Old Man allows).