Geopolitical present: inconspicuous cracks in the world order
It would be necessary, it would be necessary to stop ...
The number of events that are constantly taking place in the world and forming a daily information agenda is just off the charts. Even the word "sensation" for various occasions sounds almost daily, and sometimes not without reason. What can we say about the events somewhat less unexpected, but quite interesting and discussed. It concerns literally any sphere of our activity, from fashion to military operations. Politics is not an exception - both that which is on the surface, and deep ...
Constantly distracted by various kinds of informational events, eagerly absorbing more and more newsWhen chasing after “insiders” and expert opinions on various issues, we often lose our understanding of what is really happening, where we are now and how far we have moved in one direction or another. In order to regain this understanding of place and time, sometimes you need to stop, catch your breath and carefully look around. What are we now, in fact, and try to do ...
Of course, it is unlikely that anyone will succeed in covering all areas of our life. Therefore, we immediately make a reservation: we will talk about politics and geopolitics, about what is really happening in the world now. The opinion of the author may not coincide with the opinion of “talking heads” on television, but let everyone choose for himself what seems more reliable to him.
So, what is happening in the world of interesting things that may be hidden from a cursory glance, but has every chance to influence the balance of power of world powers in the future? There are several such events at once. Some are heard, others occur quietly and imperceptibly, but each of them is in its own way the most important indicator of the vector of future changes, and at the same time those scenarios that are considered most likely in some "decision centers."
India: China's rival and counterweight
The most important, but almost imperceptible event of the geopolitical agenda is the beginning of the economic boom in India. Yes, for most observers in different countries, so far this manifests itself only in Indian medicines, software, and recently appeared smartphones of the Indian assembly. But if you take a closer look, it turns out that India has already gained growth rates comparable to Chinese, and for a number of economic and political reasons it will overtake China in terms of economic growth over the next few decades.
Actually, the lead will begin next year: India’s GDP growth in 2020 is expected to be at 7,8%, and this is higher than what is planned in China. A longer-term forecast does not bode well for Beijing at all: by the 2030 year, an optimistic forecast draws him only 5% growth, while India will maintain (at least) the indicated rates, and it is very likely that it will surpass them.
By 2030, China's PPP GDP will be 64 trillion. dollars, and India - 46,3 trillion. dollars. Thus, in terms of PPP GDP, India can even outperform the States whose economies, according to experts, will reach 31 trillion by this time. Doll.
The result is quite obvious: in a fairly short time, India will become one of the three most industrialized countries. According to some optimistic forecasts, it will even be able to push the United States to third place, which in itself is doubtful, but it could happen. Moreover, it will take India not a hundred years or even fifty: Delhi's starting conditions are much (I emphasize this) better than China had forty years ago when he started its reforms. The goal of breaking into the top three for twenty years is not only desirable, but also very realistic for Delhi. The only question is whether India will bypass the United States, but even this largely depends on Washington itself and on the decisions that will be made in the American capital.
However, not everyone understands why this growth began, and why it seems so irreversible. Well, this seems to be no secret, just as yet not all television “experts” have read about it on “VO”, and therefore no one says anything on television. The reason is geopolitical and unshakable as hopelessness: the United States is afraid of China, it does not trust Russia and is even more afraid of its alliance against the “golden billion”. Therefore, the issue of creating a counterweight to China is strategic for Washington. And if so, the “superpower” is “inflated” from India in the same way as China was “inflated” at the time, as opposed to the USSR. Another thing is that the USSR unexpectedly collapsed, the need for a China superpower disappeared, and now it itself has become a threat to the United States. But Americans can learn from their own mistakes, and you can be sure that with India they will be more selective and accurate.
Do we need a Turkish coast?
Another geopolitical event of extreme importance that is happening before our eyes is the gradual squeezing of Turkey out of the sphere of influence of the United States. Yes, slowly, with a creak, but Ankara is slowly drifting to the side ... No, let's be honest, not towards Russia. But in the direction of greater sovereignty from its overseas "partners" - certainly.
Probably, it makes no sense to recall examples of Turkish disobedience and self-will - they are well-known to everyone. Here another thing is much more interesting, which is generally not discussed anywhere and is unlikely to be said in the near future: the touching unity of the efforts of Moscow and Tel Aviv. And do not, please, make such surprised eyes: the coincidence of the interests of Russia and Israel, albeit momentarily, but more than obvious, but because without saying a word, they pull Turkey in one direction, albeit each from its end.
The fact is that Turkey is the only potential enemy of Israel in the region, capable of creating problems for Israel’s long-term security. And that is why Tel Aviv is interested in ensuring that Ankara’s military power does not grow, but decreases, gradually reducing the possible threat to zero.
That is why Turkey’s exit from the orbit of the United States and NATO is beneficial for Israel. This is both a momentary exit - a refusal from the supply of Turkey by F-35 fighters, which potentially pose a significant threat to Israel, and a longer-term one, associated with the hope of a general deterioration in Turkey's economic prospects in the event of withdrawal from NATO. In any case, with the prospect of its entry into the EU, then it will be possible to put an end to it, and for Israel this will be good news.
As for Russia, here, again, long transfers are not necessary: weakening of NATO at the expense of one of the most important members of the organization, more comfortable conditions for passing the Black Sea straits in the event of any conflicts, a potentially good arms market, and so on. That is, we really coincide here. But our methods differ, and very seriously.
There is no need to tell the readers of VO once again about how Russia works. But the methods of Israel are not visible at all. Unless, of course, you remember that Donald Trump’s son-in-law is an ethnic Jew, and his beloved daughter Ivanka adopted Judaism after marriage.
Many will probably say that this still does not mean anything. But let's be frank: the stubbornness and zeal with which it is Trump who "ruins" US-Turkish relations is quite eloquent. A recent statement by the American president that the United States will “tear” the Turkish economy, in the spirit of the scenario we described. And when the initiatives of American senators of Jewish origin are added to this, and over and over again offering new tricks for Turkey, you will inevitably think about whether everything is spontaneous here.
One way or another, we state: Turkey, on the one hand, is aggressively pushed out of NATO, and on the other hand, it is no less persistently pulled away from it. And there is some hope, this time not incorporeal, that a miracle will happen and this strategically extremely important country for the first time in several centuries will cease to be our unique and unconditional opponent. Add to this the general weakening of NATO, the loss of some control zones by the bloc and state that the “big game” in the Turkish direction finally promises Russia significant benefits, and in the long run could become Moscow’s largest geopolitical victory over the past few centuries.
And if so, then you can endure a little Turkish arrogance, and Israeli arrogance in Syria ...
And you don’t want to, but you can’t help but say ...
Another area in which serious geopolitical demolition is taking place is Ukraine. The significance of what is happening now in this country is extremely high, and it is third on the list only because readers are already very tired of this topic. Partly because of this, I will try to be brief, I will say only the most important.
It cannot be said that things are going rosy with us in this direction. For us, the slogan “Not a step back!” Is still relevant, we still run the risk of seeing economic growth in Ukraine exceeding growth in Russia itself, just as the victory of Ukraine in a transit war is very likely. All this can spur the conditionally "Maidan" mood in Moscow, where under the slogan "Why did Ukraine succeed?", Many more thousands of now vacillating citizens will stand up. Well, in order to convince some of our fellow citizens that somewhere someone did something, you need not so much: some glass booths of traffic cops, as it was in Georgia, for many became vivid evidence of the “Georgian economic miracle. "
Separately, the transit “push-push” should be mentioned. According to Putin, Russia is ready to extend the current transit agreement with Ukraine for a year. Kiev is set to further twist Moscow’s hands. The Kremlin may have some kind of special vision of the situation, but it can be safely assumed that any concessions on this issue indicate a weakness in Russia's position. After all the nasty things we get in matters of transit, the construction of pipelines, and so on, pretending that nothing is happening is the same as inviting all sorts of American satellites and further intriguing us. Alas, we will not decide this issue, but still the probability of concessions to Kiev is very high, which certainly will not add to our points in the ongoing confrontation.
And the last direction, where very important events are taking place, is the Persian Gulf.
Is Iran a de facto regional superpower?
First of all, it should be noted here the imperceptible, some kind of quiet and unexpected strengthening of Iran. Tehran, which has been under various kinds of sanctions for decades, has found the strength for a very impressive technological and military breakthrough. American shot down by the Iranian army and the IRGC Drones, the desperate resistance of the Houthis (the only allies of Iran in the region) to the forces of the Arab coalition clearly show that it is possible to develop successfully even under sanctions that are many times more severe than anti-Russian ones.
One way or another, Iran has ceased to be perceived as a potential threat and has become a real force. Now, after the obvious fiasco of Saudi Arabia in Yemen, no one has any doubts that in the event of a direct conflict between Riad and Tehran, the former will not have the slightest chance without direct military support from the United States. Iran has de facto become the main military force of the region, which is the most important region for the world economy, and with the right approach, Russia can become the main beneficiary of the situation there. It’s clear that Tehran is playing its own game and will not drag chestnuts out of the fire for anyone, but in any case, Moscow will be happy with any situation that Washington’s position in the region has somewhat weakened.
The likelihood that the United States will risk a direct conflict with Tehran is not very high. Yes, there have been many statements on this subject; Iran is being “attacked” with a frequency of two to three years. But so far not a single attack has turned into anything concrete, and things do not go beyond television shows and news releases with formidable forecasts. And the reason is probably precisely because Iran has grown too strong, it can no longer be taken with bare hands, without a long oil crisis and huge losses for the Western economy.
Of course, this is far from all that could be mentioned in connection with the geopolitical developments taking place in the world. But we will not even try to grasp the immensity, we simply state that the world is changing, and rather, for the better for Russia. Yes, given the current trends, we are unlikely to ever regain the status of one of the two political poles of the world. But to be one of the poles in conditions of real multipolarity is a very feasible task for us.
True, there is one small nuance: will we survive to these good times as a single and strong state? But here domestic policy already dominates the foreign one, and, probably, nobody will undertake to answer this question exactly.
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