Central Asia at the crossroads of geopolitics
Last week, the Uzbek Telegraph Agency (UzTAG) reported that the military delegation of Uzbekistan, led by Deputy Minister of Defense Azizbek Ikramov, left for a four-day visit to the United States. This time, the “military fraternity” of the two countries will be strengthened by military educational programs. Tashkent showed interest "in establishing cooperation in the training of senior officers".
This, in general, is ordinary news of the "multi-vector nature" of the post-Soviet republics recalled the importance that the United States attaches to the countries of Central Asia. A serious struggle has long been going on for influence in the region in the triangle of world powers - China, the USA and Russia.
Success in it is variable. Although there are already quite stable trends in preferences. So, Uzbekistan, despite the growing economic cooperation with Russia, has identified the United States as its main foreign policy partner.
At least, the Uzbek media loudly announced this after the first official visit of the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Washington in May last year. Then Uzbekistan and the United States signed more than 20 large contracts worth 4,8 billion dollars.
The Uzbek authorities agreed with the Americans on the construction of an oil refinery in the Jizzakh region and a new power plant in the Tashkent thermal power plant. Washington promised Tashkent assistance with joining the WTO, and the American company WCC International undertook to promote Uzbek products to the US market.
Other joint projects and actions were agreed. Uzbek political analyst Umid Asatullaev called the results of the visit of President Mirziyoyev “historical"And added:" From today, Uzbekistan has made it clear to the whole world that the United States is an important and valuable partner for it. "
Amid this exorbitant joy, the significance of previously concluded agreements on investments in the Uzbek economy of Russian companies somehow subsided, where only one LUKOIL signed up for 3 billion dollars of investments in the fuel and energy sector of the republic, and Gazprom's subsidiary GAS PROJECT DEVELOPMENT CENTRAL ASIA has promised to spend $ 1,3 billion on gas field development.
To this we can add a whole series of other joint projects, the Russian market open for Uzbeks and Uzbek goods, including the labor market that is sensitive to us. The latter, by the way, at the expense of migrant workers' money, brings not only good for the economy of Uzbekistan, but also risks if Russia (anything in life can be) closes the way across its border for these people or their money transfers.
The first president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, has already marked the geopolitical rush between Russia and America. In the end, in these throwings, he quarreled with the authorities of both powers. But they did not forget about their interests in the Uzbek republic, so they forgave Karimova for something (Moscow, for example, did not condemn the persecution of Russians, and Washington suffered problems with the American military base), somewhere they choked him (through pressure in international organizations) leaving Uzbekistan in the focus of its foreign policy goals.
For Russia, this is, above all, the security of its southern borders. In addition to the obvious economic benefits, America is warming in the southern republic a hotbed of tension for geopolitical opponents - Russia and China. All this gives rise to the "multi-vector nature" of Tashkent, caused, among other things, by dissatisfaction with large neighbors for their weak attention to the most populous (over 33 million people) country of Central Asia.
The fact is that Uzbekistan has appeared somewhat on the periphery of the processes taking place today in the region. It does not have large natural resources that could seriously and permanently interest Chinese neighbors. Not suitable for the role of the main transport corridor in the megaproject “New Silk Road”. At least, the Persian direction of the project, where Tashkent’s participation was seen, has not yet been developed. Accordingly, China’s investment in Uzbekistan has even declined in recent years.
Is it good or bad? There may be different estimates. The research team of the German Bertelsman Foundation, led by Markus Taube, professor at the Department of Economics of East Asia and China at the University of Duisburg-Essen, prepared a report that highlighted the priorities for Chinese investment under the Silk Road.
The main beneficiaries of the Chinese project, according to Professor Taube, are Kazakhstan and Belarus. In Minsk, German researchers were interested in the Great Stone Belarusian-Chinese industrial park, in which guests from the Celestial Empire already feel like masters. They are welcomed to such an extent that in the schools of Belarus, the second place in the distribution of a foreign language after English has already taken Chinese.
There are also alarming facts. For example, the debt of Belarus to China exceeded 13% of GDP. Although this is less than the Chinese debt (15% of GDP) of Tajikistan, attributed by the Germans together with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to the number of countries in the region with a predominance of Western funds over Chinese in local economies.
The Germans tried to calculate the money Beijing spent on promoting its Silk Road project, but were forced to retreat, citing a study by the Institute of World Economy in Kiel, which concluded that "about half of Chinese loans to developing countries around the world are simply classified."
Nevertheless, Marcus Taube is confident that Chinese investments in Kazakhstan far exceed investments and loans from Western countries. German researchers called this bias dangerous because the New Silk Road project is not aimed at fighting poverty, not at the well-being of broad sections of the local population, but exclusively at achieving their own goals. ”
Taube explained this conclusion as follows. China provides financial assistance to the participating countries of the project to create "the infrastructure, which will then be used by private, and often actually state-owned Chinese companies ... In the Western version of the provision of financial assistance this is not."
Behind the study, the Bertelsman Foundation sticks out the ears of a European business competing in Central Asia with Chinese companies. Moreover, he was also preoccupied (so that Professor Taube would not speak there) not with the "well-being of the broad sections of the local population", but solely with his commercial advantage.
Meanwhile, China, the USA and Russia remain the main investors in the region. Therefore, the authority of Europeans here is not so high. True, they are trying to rise in this particular market, where the interests of great powers clashed, but so far without much success. What once again convinced the Bertelsmann Foundation.
As for the authorities of the countries of Central Asia, they have already learned to maneuver with varying degrees of success among the strong embraces of powerful partners. Reinforce your economies with foreign money. To find support within the framework of regional associations and bilateral cooperation.
It is important that this policy does not clash the powerful with their foreheads. While this is working out. So, “senior officers” prepared by the Americans for Uzbekistan are unlikely to pose any threat to China or Russia. But they will remind them of lost political opportunities ...
Is America Far From Uzbekistan?
This, in general, is ordinary news of the "multi-vector nature" of the post-Soviet republics recalled the importance that the United States attaches to the countries of Central Asia. A serious struggle has long been going on for influence in the region in the triangle of world powers - China, the USA and Russia.
Success in it is variable. Although there are already quite stable trends in preferences. So, Uzbekistan, despite the growing economic cooperation with Russia, has identified the United States as its main foreign policy partner.
At least, the Uzbek media loudly announced this after the first official visit of the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Washington in May last year. Then Uzbekistan and the United States signed more than 20 large contracts worth 4,8 billion dollars.
The Uzbek authorities agreed with the Americans on the construction of an oil refinery in the Jizzakh region and a new power plant in the Tashkent thermal power plant. Washington promised Tashkent assistance with joining the WTO, and the American company WCC International undertook to promote Uzbek products to the US market.
Other joint projects and actions were agreed. Uzbek political analyst Umid Asatullaev called the results of the visit of President Mirziyoyev “historical"And added:" From today, Uzbekistan has made it clear to the whole world that the United States is an important and valuable partner for it. "
Amid this exorbitant joy, the significance of previously concluded agreements on investments in the Uzbek economy of Russian companies somehow subsided, where only one LUKOIL signed up for 3 billion dollars of investments in the fuel and energy sector of the republic, and Gazprom's subsidiary GAS PROJECT DEVELOPMENT CENTRAL ASIA has promised to spend $ 1,3 billion on gas field development.
To this we can add a whole series of other joint projects, the Russian market open for Uzbeks and Uzbek goods, including the labor market that is sensitive to us. The latter, by the way, at the expense of migrant workers' money, brings not only good for the economy of Uzbekistan, but also risks if Russia (anything in life can be) closes the way across its border for these people or their money transfers.
Between the Great Powers
The first president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, has already marked the geopolitical rush between Russia and America. In the end, in these throwings, he quarreled with the authorities of both powers. But they did not forget about their interests in the Uzbek republic, so they forgave Karimova for something (Moscow, for example, did not condemn the persecution of Russians, and Washington suffered problems with the American military base), somewhere they choked him (through pressure in international organizations) leaving Uzbekistan in the focus of its foreign policy goals.
For Russia, this is, above all, the security of its southern borders. In addition to the obvious economic benefits, America is warming in the southern republic a hotbed of tension for geopolitical opponents - Russia and China. All this gives rise to the "multi-vector nature" of Tashkent, caused, among other things, by dissatisfaction with large neighbors for their weak attention to the most populous (over 33 million people) country of Central Asia.
The fact is that Uzbekistan has appeared somewhat on the periphery of the processes taking place today in the region. It does not have large natural resources that could seriously and permanently interest Chinese neighbors. Not suitable for the role of the main transport corridor in the megaproject “New Silk Road”. At least, the Persian direction of the project, where Tashkent’s participation was seen, has not yet been developed. Accordingly, China’s investment in Uzbekistan has even declined in recent years.
Europe seeks its place in Asia
Is it good or bad? There may be different estimates. The research team of the German Bertelsman Foundation, led by Markus Taube, professor at the Department of Economics of East Asia and China at the University of Duisburg-Essen, prepared a report that highlighted the priorities for Chinese investment under the Silk Road.
The main beneficiaries of the Chinese project, according to Professor Taube, are Kazakhstan and Belarus. In Minsk, German researchers were interested in the Great Stone Belarusian-Chinese industrial park, in which guests from the Celestial Empire already feel like masters. They are welcomed to such an extent that in the schools of Belarus, the second place in the distribution of a foreign language after English has already taken Chinese.
There are also alarming facts. For example, the debt of Belarus to China exceeded 13% of GDP. Although this is less than the Chinese debt (15% of GDP) of Tajikistan, attributed by the Germans together with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to the number of countries in the region with a predominance of Western funds over Chinese in local economies.
The Germans tried to calculate the money Beijing spent on promoting its Silk Road project, but were forced to retreat, citing a study by the Institute of World Economy in Kiel, which concluded that "about half of Chinese loans to developing countries around the world are simply classified."
Nevertheless, Marcus Taube is confident that Chinese investments in Kazakhstan far exceed investments and loans from Western countries. German researchers called this bias dangerous because the New Silk Road project is not aimed at fighting poverty, not at the well-being of broad sections of the local population, but exclusively at achieving their own goals. ”
Taube explained this conclusion as follows. China provides financial assistance to the participating countries of the project to create "the infrastructure, which will then be used by private, and often actually state-owned Chinese companies ... In the Western version of the provision of financial assistance this is not."
Behind the study, the Bertelsman Foundation sticks out the ears of a European business competing in Central Asia with Chinese companies. Moreover, he was also preoccupied (so that Professor Taube would not speak there) not with the "well-being of the broad sections of the local population", but solely with his commercial advantage.
Meanwhile, China, the USA and Russia remain the main investors in the region. Therefore, the authority of Europeans here is not so high. True, they are trying to rise in this particular market, where the interests of great powers clashed, but so far without much success. What once again convinced the Bertelsmann Foundation.
As for the authorities of the countries of Central Asia, they have already learned to maneuver with varying degrees of success among the strong embraces of powerful partners. Reinforce your economies with foreign money. To find support within the framework of regional associations and bilateral cooperation.
It is important that this policy does not clash the powerful with their foreheads. While this is working out. So, “senior officers” prepared by the Americans for Uzbekistan are unlikely to pose any threat to China or Russia. But they will remind them of lost political opportunities ...
Information