Military Review

Danish gas games. "Nord Stream 2" queued

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Copenhagen has issued a permit for the laying of gas pipes in its special economic zone in the Baltic to the company Baltic Pipe. However, the Norwegian-Polish gas pipeline in any case will not be an alternative to the Nord Stream 2, and especially will not stop its construction.


Danish gas games. "Nord Stream 2" queued


Rather, on the contrary, Copenhagen found itself in an ambiguous situation: the environmental risks of SP-2 disappeared, and the legal consequences for countering the project appeared. Who would have thought that Denmark would be such a significant player in the gas market in Europe! But here the main thing is not the size, but the strategic location: my islands, my territorial waters, what I want, I turn back. To whom I smile, and to whom I will turn to one place.

Baltic fog


Scandinavian favor recently turned into a permit issued by Denmark for the construction of an outlet for the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline on land on the east coast of the country. In the Danish Agency for Environmental Protection, it is number one. With the second permit, on construction in the Danish waters of the offshore section of the pipeline from Norway to Poland, apparently, they will not pull for a long time.

But wait: about the same thing, and even without going to land, I asked Denmark for Nord Stream 2, the construction operator for the Nord Stream 2. Just need to build a small section of the underwater section of the pipeline near the island of Bornholm. The first application from Nord Stream 2 was filed back in 2017, and it's still there.

Denmark, as a scrupulous lady, decided to rest on the highest values ​​- on the environmental aspects of the SP-2 gasket. Say, won't the gas pipeline from the east damage the Danish nature so vulnerable? At the same time, other countries have already issued permits for its construction. For some reason, the project did not cause any environmental concerns for Sweden, Finland and Germany. It is noteworthy that the "Nord Stream 2" will be laid next to its predecessor - the "Nord Stream". And about it, Denmark has no questions in the past.

After the first permit for Baltic Pipe was issued by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency, all environmental nebulae around SP-2 finally disappeared. It is not at all a concern about the gentle maritime nature of the Baltic Sea. Just a small Scandinavian country decided to play geopolitical muscles.

But not alone: ​​Denmark simply decided on its position, finally moving into the block of opponents of the Nord Stream 2. In it, as is known, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine and Poland are listed, and now Denmark. And behind them, the shadow of a well-known overseas power looms unambiguously. Well, “Baltic Pipe” is not served as an alternative to SP-2. True, it is kind of skinny and dusty.

The project of this pipeline is at least 20 years old. He lay for a long time in the European reserves - investors didn’t want to be interested in them. Last year, experts were skeptical about his prospects. The EU has slowed down and kept putting off the allocation of investment in the Norwegian-Polish pipeline.

But as the threat from the east approached, that is, with the active construction of the Nord Stream 2, the Baltic Pipe changed before our eyes. Lobbyists found money in the depths of the EU, the Norwegian-Polish gas pipeline shook off the dust and loudly declared itself as a serious competitor to the gas onslaught from the east.



More precisely, this is stated by Poland, which is worn with “BP” as with a written bag. True, the alternative is some kind of parochial. Estimated pipeline capacity from Norway - total 10 billion cubic meters per year. Poland buys about the same amount annually from Gazprom. The contract with the Russian company ends in 2022 year. By this time, it is planned to complete the construction of the Baltic Pipe.

Helping a neighbor in the Baltic to promote the project is, of course, a noble cause. But what gains Denmark from these movements? Well, yes - Danish Energinet.dk is a contractor in the construction of the gas pipeline, but capital investments are not so large in principle - they are estimated at 1,7 billion dollars. In general, the transit case: allowed - paved. But you still have to deal with your neighbors in the region.

Crisscross


First of all, Denmark is faced with one way or another of debriefing with a neighbor - Germany. Weaving networks about the environmental risks of SP-2 is, at least, not very serious for this project. Gas is from the east, but the project uses the most modern western technologies, a whole pool of large companies is taking part in the construction - the real cream of the European oil and gas community.

How Germany will respond to the Danish "stick in the wheel" - is still unknown, but the "otvetka" will definitely be. Wait and see.


German maps that reinforce the harsh criticism of the Danish veto, much more Russian


The rhetoric of the Russian side has also changed. For quite a long time, Russia took a wait-and-see attitude, hoping that Denmark would not particularly persist in the "Nord Stream 2". All agreed: let the Danish environmentalists once again check the environmental components of the project. It was proposed three options for laying underwater gas pipeline. But when the pause dragged on, the first option was decided to withdraw.

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has already stopped playing diplomacy, directly calling the actions of the Danish government a confrontational course.

“We regret to state that Denmark has taken a politicized position and is slow in issuing permission to lay the pipeline in its exclusive economic zone”,

Said the minister.

According to him, such a move goes against the principles of international maritime law, which allow the construction of energy infrastructure facilities in the waters.

At the same time, Russia rather rigidly set the deadlines for the further promotion of the Nord Stream 2. According to Viktor Zubkov, chairman of the board of directors of PJSC Gazprom, Russia expects Denmark to give consent for the joint venture on 2 in October, and then we can finish this very important project at the end of the year.

Copenhagen is hardly worth persisting and putting new stumbling blocks at the bottom of the Baltic Sea. After all, the Danish authorities themselves were in a not very pleasant situation. With the issuance of the second permit by the Baltic Pipe, they will not pull - why bring Poland a girlfriend? But clinging to the ecology makes no sense.

Experts point out that issuing a permit to a Norwegian-Polish pipeline, on the contrary, may speed up the resolution of the issue with the Nord Stream 2.

Yes, it is formally put in line after the “Baltic Pipe”. But after a certain time, Denmark should give a green light to SP-2, otherwise there is a precedent - you can go to court with very unpleasant consequences for Copenhagen. In addition, the right of the former remains with the Russian-German pipeline: it is he who must first lie on the bottom of the Baltic Sea, and only then the Norwegian-Polish gas pipeline will cross it.

There is no alternative


And here already for it not very pleasant times can come. The so-called intersection node must be coordinated with Nord Stream 2. And, of course, the question arises - whether he will arrange problems for the "alternative" pipeline. Theoretically, it can, but in practice it is unlikely to sink to such a "bottom".

And what about the Baltic Pipe itself? It is clear that he will never be any alternative to the North Stream 2. Weight categories are very different. Moreover, the Norwegian gas has long been dismantled by consumers. Norway annually produces about 118-120 billion cubic meters of blue fuel, and there is simply no room for a significant increase in production. Every year the Norwegians have to climb further and further into the sea in order to preserve the current production volumes. In other words, if Norway sends gas to Poland, other consumers will not receive it. Miracles do not happen.



The resulting deficit is likely to be covered by the very same Gazprom and, in part, LNG. The latter is just quite convenient for plugging gas "holes." And Russia has also prepared here - the fleet of LNG tankers is growing, and the liquefied fuel is already flowing to Europe. It is noteworthy that last year Poland reduced Russian gas purchases by 6%, and in general, supplies from the Russian Federation to Europe increased by 3,5%.

Thus, “Baltic Pipe” may well be an empty pipe, which, under certain conditions, may even “break”. Moreover, as many business media outlets in Poland themselves have noted, the country has yet to coordinate the laying of the Baltic Pipe ... with Gazprom.
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  1. tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 24 July 2019 15: 20
    +2
    And these forgot who Bornholm freed from the Nazis. Short human memory for good.
    1. Oleg Zorin
      Oleg Zorin 24 July 2019 23: 41
      +7
      Is it really Gazprom?
    2. Yrec
      Yrec 25 July 2019 09: 29
      0
      During the Northern War, Denmark surrendered to the Swedes in one day. During World War II, Denmark surrendered to the Germans in 6 hours. I would generally ignore her squeak.
      1. tihonmarine
        tihonmarine 25 July 2019 10: 56
        0
        Especially when Hitler entered Denmark, it's just like a mockery of Denmark. In the evening, a German steamer entered Copenhagen, and in the morning a flag with a swastika hung on government buildings, under the protection of the Nazis. "Tsyuryuk everyone!" War is over.
  2. iaroslav.mudryi
    iaroslav.mudryi 24 July 2019 15: 27
    24
    From the article:
    Yes, it is formally put in line after the “Baltic Pipe”. But after a certain time, Denmark should give a green light to SP-2, otherwise there is a precedent - you can go to court with very unpleasant consequences for Copenhagen. In addition, the right of the former remains with the Russian-German pipeline: it is he who must first lie on the bottom of the Baltic Sea, and only then the Norwegian-Polish gas pipeline will cross it.


    In what queue can the SP-2 be placed after the Baltic Pipe?
    The respected author should know that exactly in the same corridor where the SP-2 is being built since 2011, the pipes of the Nord Stream -1 have been lying and are working perfectly. Even if we imagine that short-sighted Denmark will continue to delay with permission to lay SP-2, then the operator "Baltic Pipe" will ask Gazprom for permission to cross the existing SP-1. It is not difficult to guess how long they will have to wait for permission from Gazprom. "The mouse's tears will flow to the cat ..."
    1. Dym71
      Dym71 24 July 2019 15: 29
      +4
      Quote: iaroslav.mudryi
      Dear author, it should be known that exactly in the same corridor where the SP-2 has been built since 2011, the Nord Stream -1 pipes lie and work perfectly.

      In the first picture it is, the author most likely has a typo hi
      1. iaroslav.mudryi
        iaroslav.mudryi 24 July 2019 15: 33
        +5
        hi
        Quote: Dym71
        In addition, as many business media in Poland itself have noted, the country has yet to coordinate the laying of the Baltic Pipe ... with Gazprom.

        The author did not quite write his article on the already published materials in the press, here is the end of his article:
        In addition, as many business media in Poland itself have noted, the country has yet to coordinate the laying of the Baltic Pipe ... with Gazprom.

        In such articles, in my opinion, we must rely on a deeper analysis. hi
        1. Dym71
          Dym71 24 July 2019 15: 46
          +2
          On 16 July 2019:
          To date, 1,628 thousand kilometers of the gas pipeline have been laid along the bottom of the Baltic Sea - 66,3% of its total length, ”the Russian gas holding said.

          With a 99% probability, at the point of intersection with the planned Baltic Pipe, SP-2 has already been laid, so it will have to be coordinated with both SP and SP-2. hi
          1. iaroslav.mudryi
            iaroslav.mudryi 24 July 2019 16: 40
            +8
            Quote: Dym71
            On 16 July 2019:
            To date, 1,628 thousand kilometers of the gas pipeline have been laid along the bottom of the Baltic Sea - 66,3% of its total length, ”the Russian gas holding said.

            With a 99% probability, at the point of intersection with the planned Baltic Pipe, SP-2 has already been laid, so it will have to be coordinated with both SP and SP-2. hi


            The point of intersection with the planned "Baltic Pipe" will be located inside the territorial waters of Denmark, otherwise why would they need to get permission from Denmark ?! With 100% accuracy, not a single meter of the SP-2 pipe has yet been laid in Danish waterways, since construction there will begin only after obtaining permission from Denmark.

            Here's what the picture of the laid pipe SP-2 looks like before Denmark:


            From Germany.
            20.12.2018. The AUDACIA pipelayer went to Rotterdam, completing the laying of its part of 2 threads in German territorial waters, 17 km from the Danish territorial waters border.
            From Sweden.
            21.12.2018 SOLITAIRE pipelayer began laying in the Swedish sector from the Danish territorial waters border. hi
            1. Dym71
              Dym71 24 July 2019 17: 09
              +4
              Quote: iaroslav.mudryi
              Here's what the picture of the laid pipe SP-2 looks like before Denmark:

              Accepted, thanks for the visual diagram, here, too, dug a coy of which:
              1. iaroslav.mudryi
                iaroslav.mudryi 24 July 2019 18: 07
                +3
                Quote: Dym71
                Accepted, thanks for the visual scheme ......


                It's my pleasure hi Offsite SP-2 has a lot of detailed information on the coordination and construction of the pipeline with documents and diagrams, including three options for laying the pipe in Danvods. Here: https://www.nord-stream2.com/ru/
              2. Deckofficer
                Deckofficer 24 July 2019 23: 21
                0
                It turns out that when designing the SP-2 they could get around Denmark? Why didn’t you do it !?
                1. Dym71
                  Dym71 25 July 2019 02: 12
                  +1
                  Quote: Deckofficer
                  It turns out that when designing the SP-2 they could get around Denmark? Why didn’t you do it !?

                  Because these are additional costs that are not justified at the time of design.
    2. knn54
      knn54 24 July 2019 16: 44
      +4
      The Gazprom board is simply obliged to take advantage of this situation - Poland should get it in full.
      1. iaroslav.mudryi
        iaroslav.mudryi 24 July 2019 16: 50
        +2
        Quote: knn54
        The Gazprom board is simply obliged to take advantage of this situation - Poland should get it in full.

        So about this in Poland are already groaning in full swing. They already realized that in this situation they would have to bow to Gazprom.
    3. the most important
      the most important 24 July 2019 19: 34
      +1
      Quote: iaroslav.mudryi
      Baltic Pipe operator will ask Gazprom for permission to cross the existing SP-1. It is not difficult to guess how long they will have to wait for permission from Gazprom.

      No need to think long. But I would agree on the intersection point in the region of the Marquise puddle. Yes hook, but the environment is more expensive !!!!
      1. Paranoid50
        Paranoid50 28 July 2019 23: 31
        0
        Quote: the most important
        But I would agree on the intersection point in the region of the Marquise puddle.

        Yes, it did not bother. laughing It was still not enough to shove the norgo-pshek pipe to us, because it will carry Russophobia strongly from it - we will suffocate ... am wassat
  3. Berkut24
    Berkut24 24 July 2019 16: 21
    +3
    And after such decisions, some people made a sigh "and we are for what" ... In general, it is symbolic that this whole story is in the same glass as the Ukrainian "Druzhba".
  4. igorbrsv
    igorbrsv 24 July 2019 16: 31
    +2
    . you can go to court with very unpleasant consequences for Copenhagen

    We know these "magistrates" judges. It is even easier to achieve recalculation from our utilities. It is necessary to "hint" before the trial that the whole geyropa will have problems with gas
  5. 3vs
    3vs 24 July 2019 16: 34
    0
    Maybe the island should drown?
  6. abrakadabre
    abrakadabre 24 July 2019 17: 06
    0
    To whom I smile, and to whom I turn to one place.
    Turning to the powers that be in one place, you can get into this place for the very tomatoes.
  7. prior
    prior 24 July 2019 17: 13
    -2
    "To be Denmark or not to be on the map of Europe, that is the question" Shoigu. S.K.
  8. BAI
    BAI 24 July 2019 17: 27
    0
    Russia expects Denmark to agree on an application for SP-2 in October, and then we can at the end of the year to complete this extremely important project.

    Can we not finish? Those. nevertheless, the author believes that much depends on Denmark in the fate of the gas pipeline? Indeed, assurances came from all sides that the Danes could be circumvented (the hook was not big).
  9. Antares
    Antares 24 July 2019 22: 13
    0
    Quote: BAI
    the author believes that much depends on Denmark in the fate of the gas pipeline?

    speed of work.
    Quote: BAI
    Indeed, assurances came from all sides that the Danes could be circumvented (the hook was not big).

    Well, for their own (population and shareholders) there should be no slack (supposedly what Denmark is there)
    but it will be longer and more expensive. And this is already important.
    In general, what levers are there on Denmark? The fact that the author suggested going to court and they immediately write that the judges who ... amusingly on one side of the Russian Federation the courts do not really favor, but there are no levers for Denmark. Of course, you can set the conditional Onishchenko on Danish imports. Normally.
    In general, sometimes the Russian Federation does not have leverage for treaties with neutral countries. To push, to buy, to threaten .. it is possible of course, but not always.
  10. Oleg Zorin
    Oleg Zorin 24 July 2019 23: 39
    0
    The meaning of this article is not entirely clear. The motives of the Danes are clear, the ecology is so, for cover, everything is obvious. As I understand it, they have no right to refuse, but they can procrastinate indefinitely. Denmark is a parliamentary country, until a sufficient number of people with other convictions are elected to parliament, nothing will change. "Answers" from Germany? Unlikely within the European Union.
  11. DPN
    DPN 25 July 2019 10: 13
    -1
    And what prevents Denmark, the union of the Federal Republic of Germany and Russia from being wiped off the face of the earth, if each flea will dictate to the Giants by size, then this is simply the end of the world, Denmark, which click cannot be given ??? LAUGHTER and only !.
    1. Antares
      Antares 25 July 2019 12: 11
      +1
      Quote: DPN
      And what prevents Denmark from being wiped off the face of the earth,

      Denmark? Yes, they have approximately the same history-state from the 11th century, these descendants of the Vikings and destroy one of the greatest states of Northern Europe?
      Destroy a country that is in first place in the world in terms of foreign trade per capita? Not a member of the EU and having one of the highest living standards *? One of the best forms of capitalism and social policy?
      Those who perceive Denmark as a small dwarf worth noting would advise them not to skip geography ... This country was almost always friendly to Russia and not at all insignificant. In economics, and society is a standard to which we must strive. Which in Russia will not be known when. The policy of the elephant in a china shop will lead to the fact that the country can easily affect the economy of the Russian Federation (it stands on the advantageous position of leaving the Baltic). The Russian Federation has no leverage on Denmark at all.
      Quote: DPN
      the union of Germany and Russia

      Denmark is not a member of the EU - the position of Germany is up to the wall. The Danes are on their minds. Well, a little play along with the Swedes and Norwegians. As usual in the Scandinavian countries .. They are there to hold on to each other.
      Moreover, they have better relations with Germany than in Russia with Germany.
      1. DPN
        DPN 25 July 2019 19: 55
        -1
        If WE are Russians, such oak trees must be followed along Peter's path, or the government should be completely purchased in Denmark for the Russians. In this case, the question is what would the United States do to it?
        Surely that with the USSR.
  12. Solvo
    Solvo 25 July 2019 20: 14
    0
    SP-2 will still break its way