Military Review

Russia "swallowed" OPEC. But is the “oil deal” beneficial to our country?

53
Gathered at a meeting in Vienna, ministers - representatives of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, decided to extend the restrictions on the production of "black gold" for another 9 months. This decision must be approved by non-OPEC countries. But Russia has already agreed with the position of the organization. Meanwhile, in OPEC itself, not all participants support the real strengthening of Russia's position in the organization.




Russia approved a reduction in oil production


The agreement to reduce oil production together with OPEC countries in the same volume, that is, to extend the "oil deal", Russia gave even during the summit of the "big twenty" in Osaka. There was a very important meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman al-Saud. Against the background of Putin’s meetings with Trump and May, attention to negotiations with the Saudi prince was somewhat weakened, and yet it was they who played a key role in the future of the “oil deal”.

Negotiations between Putin and bin Salman led to a significant change in the situation on the world oil market. The two countries, which are the largest producers and suppliers of oil, have actually subjugated OPEC to their interests, and now Moscow and Riyadh are making genuine decisions about the scale of oil production, but between them and OPEC.

The fact that Putin and bin Salman announced a reduction in oil production even before the OPEC summit held in Vienna on July 1-2 indicates that Russia and Saudi Arabia are becoming true OPEC leaders, and Russia, as is known, is not a member of OPEC. .

Oil production will be held back until March 2020. This is a long time, and in Russia, as in Saudi Arabia, they expect that the “oil deal” will meet the economic interests of the country. Moreover, the demand for oil in the world market, due to a number of objective factors, falls, respectively, and there is a need to raise prices.

If we talk about the scale of reduction in oil production, in general, it is planned to reduce it by 1,2 million barrels per day from the October production level of 2018. The Russian Federation pledges to restrain oil production at 228 thousand barrels per day from the October level of 2018, and OPEC member countries at 800 thousand barrels per day. Proponents of the deal emphasize that if oil is sold above 65 dollars per barrel, Russia will receive a profit in the budget in the 2,8 region of trillion rubles before the end of 2019.

Iran: Russia kills OPEC


Tehran criticized Russia’s oil policy. Iran has called the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia the direct perpetrators of the gradual "dying" of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This was stated by Iran’s Oil Minister Bizhan Namdar Zangane, who arrived in Vienna.

According to the Iranian minister, now in OPEC there is an obvious one-sidedness in decision-making. In fact, the policy of the cartel is determined by Russia and Saudi Arabia. And if in itself the reduction of oil production is not a problem, then in strengthening the influence of Moscow and Riyadh on the policy of the organization in Tehran see a dangerous trend.

In fact, Iran has indeed found itself in a very difficult situation. On the one hand, he is an ally of Russia in Syria, and indeed in the whole of the Middle East. Tehran is well aware that without the support of Russia, Iran, which has been imposed on sanctions and is causing Washington’s hatred, will be very bad.



On the other hand, and this is also an objective fact, if we talk about trade in minerals, then Iran is a competitor of Russia on the world market, as it produces oil and gas. And the sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States are, in a sense, beneficial for Russia as well, since they “turn off” a serious competitor and make it possible in part to occupy that niche in the oil and gas trade on the world market, which Iran previously occupied.

Therefore, in Tehran, they are concerned about the OPEC deal, especially if we consider that Iran’s oil and gas exports are now experiencing far from the best times - because of the American sanctions, almost all buyers of its oil and gas have turned away from Iran. Without real opportunities for “white” exports, Iran can increase oil production at least tenfold, and Tehran will not be able to sell “black gold” in such quantities on the world market anyway due to US sanctions.

Accordingly, the transaction itself on the reduction of oil production can not cause any economic harm to Iranian interests in the current world situation. Another thing is that Tehran does not like the fact of forced adjustment of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to the interests of Russia and Saudi Arabia, but, on the other hand, nothing can be done about it.

OPEC problems and its nebulous future


As it is known, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries initially included 14 participants - these are African, Asian, and Latin American countries that produce and export oil. In Africa, OPEC includes Algeria, Angola, Gabon, Congo, Libya, Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea, in Latin America - Venezuela and Ecuador, in Asia - Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The 14th member of OPEC, Qatar, in January 2019 left the ranks of the cartel.

Initially, OPEC already faced serious problems. First of all, it is the opposite of the political and economic interests of its members. For example, OPEC has its worst enemies - Iran and Saudi Arabia. Their political and ideological confrontation inevitably extends to the sphere of the economy, including oil production, to its exports, where these countries are also competitors.



Secondly, the economic situation of the OPEC countries is very different. So, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait are rich countries with a very high standard of living of the population and, at the same time, possessing enormous oil resources. For them, increasing oil production is not critical. Another thing is such countries as Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, which are in a difficult economic situation and for which oil production is the only way to feed itself, at least partially to cover debts.

A number of OPEC countries have political problems that inevitably affect both the production and sale of oil. For example, civil wars are going on in Iraq and Libya, sanctions are imposed on Iran, effectively blocking the country’s ability to trade in oil normally, Venezuela is also under sanctions, albeit less severe. That is, already four countries cannot fully realize their potential in the sphere of oil production and sale.

On the other hand, OPEC does not include countries that play a very serious role in world oil production. First of all, it is Russia, which accounts for 12% of world production of "black gold". OPEC does not consist of the United States, China, Canada, Brazil, Kazakhstan, which also play a very important role in the global oil market.

The presence of countries that are not members of OPEC, but possessing huge oil reserves and actively selling oil, is in itself a factor hindering the monopoly influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on the world market for “black gold”. And until recently, OPEC did not seek to reduce production, believing that the vacant niche in the oil market will be immediately occupied by countries that are not part of this cartel.

Is OPEC a profitable deal for Russia?


Regarding the economic consequences of the OPEC transaction for Russia, there are several points of view. According to the most common, Moscow unequivocally benefits from a reduction in oil production, since it allows maintaining high prices for “black gold”. Since oil exports are one of the most important items of income for the Russian budget, it turns out that the material well-being of both Russia and all Russians largely depends on world oil prices.

But critics of the deal believe that it is extremely dangerous for Russia. And cite as an argument the following considerations. Oil production in Russia, in contrast to the same countries - OPEC members and non-OPEC countries like the USA, is growing at a very slow pace. Simple comparisons are enough: from 2007, the increase in oil production in Iraq was 111%, in the USA - 87%, and in Russia - 10%. Comments, as they say, are superfluous.

Low growth rates of oil production were also reflected in the share of Russia in the world oil market. But the smaller Russia's share in the global oil market, the less its influence on it. Especially when you consider that today, the world's oil buyers are becoming more interested in other grades of “black gold”, which are not produced in Russia.

We should not exclude such a factor as the real influence of the USA on the world oil market, but it is much more ambitious than the Russian one. To begin with, the United States consumes a quarter of the world's oil. At the same time, the US itself, after the “shale revolution”, quickly became the most important supplier of oil to the world market. Now the United States and the world leader in oil production, and the world leader in its consumption. This alignment gives Washington the opportunity to very seriously influence the price of oil.

In addition, the US does not forget about political instruments of influence. For example, by introducing sanctions against Iran and threatening all buyers of Iranian oil, the United States effectively removed it from the world market. Now most of the Iranian oil remains unclaimed, and Tehran can only make shady deliveries to China, and negotiate with Russia so that Russia sells Iranian oil on its own behalf. Does our country have similar American opportunities to influence the world oil market? Of course, there are no such opportunities, and in the near future they are unlikely to appear.



The position of the Russian oil producers themselves is interesting, since it is they who best understand the essence of what is happening. So, in Rosneft, the OPEC + deal was extremely negative. If the Ministry of Economic Development believes that only thanks to the deal, it will be possible to maintain high oil prices, then Rosneft adheres to the opposite point of view. The OPEC + deal in the country's largest oil company is considered profitable only by the United States.

Americans will increase production. Does it make sense to cut us if the Americans immediately fill in and take market share?

- the head of Rosneft asked Igor Sechin another 4 of June at the meeting of shareholders of Rosneft.

If Russia, as the opponents of the transaction believe, will risk and produce oil on a large scale than before, then oil prices will go down and this will lead to huge losses for the United States. Expensive oil production projects will be forced to leave the market, since they will not stand the competition. Although, of course, such a position, called the “price war model”, also has a lot of risks, including the enormous capabilities of the United States.

In addition, the obligations under the transaction with OPEC can delay the development of a number of Russian mining projects, which will inevitably affect the state of the manufacturing industry, the number of jobs for the population and its income. As a result, the low standard of living of Russians can significantly decrease, which will force citizens to take more consumer loans, increasing the credit load.

Thus, the consequences of a deal with OPEC for Russia can be viewed from different angles. And it’s too early to say that Moscow found itself in some kind of extremely advantageous situation, having agreed with the Saudi prince.
Author:
Photos used:
sia.ru, azertag.az
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  1. Ugolek
    Ugolek 4 July 2019 05: 48 New
    0
    What can I say about Iran and its concern, when the Russian Federation several years ago tried to openly cooperate with them, they tossed their nose. So you do not need to pay attention to them, on the contrary, it makes sense to eliminate the competitor. With the Turks, and then the exhaust is more obtained. Whatever it was, but Erdogan proved it by deed, and the Persians began to play. Remember how they turned their nose when a nuclear deal was made and they got access to their frozen money?
    1. Ugolek
      Ugolek 4 July 2019 05: 57 New
      +6
      I found such data: Russia-Turkey trade turnover for 2014 was $ 44 billion.
      Russia - Iran for 2015 - 1.24 billion. Dollars. It’s immediately clear who the key partner is. Therefore, do not care about Iran, everything is clear with them. On the contrary, they need to be removed from the game for oil, and especially for gas.
      1. NEXUS
        NEXUS 4 July 2019 09: 04 New
        0
        Quote: Ugolek
        On the contrary, they need to be removed from the game for oil, and especially for gas.

        I often think, what will happen to Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc., when they create new sources of energy? For example, atmospheric electricity or the same water. Hydrocarbons are finite, and someday they will end. It is clear that while oil corporations do not pump everything out of the bowels, they will hinder the development of alternative forms of energy by all means. But progress, no matter how slow it is, is moving forward and the day will come when the development of civilization in this direction will no longer be possible to restrain.
        1. WIKI
          WIKI 4 July 2019 09: 20 New
          +6
          Spit on Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait. What will happen to Russia?
          1. NEXUS
            NEXUS 4 July 2019 09: 24 New
            -2
            Quote: Victor Biryukov
            Spit on Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait. What will happen to Russia?

            In any case, everything will be fine with Russia. Why? The answer is simple - because the Russian Federation is the only state in the world that is able to fully provide itself with everything necessary for life, development and prosperity.
            1. kjhg
              kjhg 4 July 2019 10: 37 New
              +7
              Quote: NEXUS
              which is able to fully support itself

              Capable and provides - these are two huge differences. As in that joke about the family, when the son asks his father what the words mean theoretically and practically. So, theoretically, they had $ 3, but practically - two pr ... ok and the old p ... ah! May the admins forgive me for a joke, but as they say, you won’t throw words out of a song.
              1. NEXUS
                NEXUS 4 July 2019 10: 39 New
                +2
                Quote: kjhg
                As in that joke about the family, when the son asks his father what the words mean theoretically and practically. So, theoretically, they had 3 000 000 $, but practically - two pr ... ok and the old p ... ah!

                Well, yes ... now these are our realities. Alas.
                1. Blackmokona
                  Blackmokona 4 July 2019 15: 52 New
                  +2
                  Some of the OPEC countries are actively investing in non-oil business.
                  UAE went to drive in tourism,
                  And Arabia is building an incredibly huge SES in order to become an energy superpower in the post-oil era
    2. Gardamir
      Gardamir 4 July 2019 07: 07 New
      +5
      then they tossed their nose
      Do you remember how ten years ago the rulers of Russia supported the sanctions against Iran?
    3. Megatron
      Megatron 4 July 2019 07: 41 New
      +2
      . Oil production will be held back until March 2019. This is a long time and in Russia, as in Saudi Arabia, they expect that the "oil deal" will meet the economic interests of the country.


      20 of the year?
      1. Harry.km
        Harry.km 5 July 2019 08: 19 New
        +2
        Quote: Megatron
        20 of the year?

        What difference does it make ... Gasoline will rise in price anyway!
  2. Thrifty
    Thrifty 4 July 2019 05: 53 New
    +9
    We always have one result - an increase in gas prices, as a result of this increase in inflation, and, even more impoverishment of the people! The tsar had already forgotten the mantra about the need to "get off the oil needle", and the retinue was all the more so. ...
    1. Ugolek
      Ugolek 4 July 2019 06: 10 New
      0
      Simple comparisons are enough: since 2007, the increase in oil production in Iraq amounted to 111%, in the USA - 87%, and in Russia - 10%


      I do not think that such a low growth in oil production is associated with a technical lag. Of course, there are a number of reasons, but one of them is simply a reduction in the share of oil money in the state budget.
    2. Greg Miller
      Greg Miller 4 July 2019 09: 25 New
      +11
      From the point of view of our elite, an ideal state has already been built. The ruling class has actually implemented all the tasks that it faced. They all have and are not responsible for anything. And they have no motive to develop this state and somehow improve the society. You need to understand that they are already well. Hence their task is to extend this state of buzz as long as possible and maintain the existing order. It is precisely for this that the ruling class spends and will spend all its energy.

      Alexander Samovarov, from the book “Do we need to return to the USSR”
  3. knn54
    knn54 4 July 2019 06: 15 New
    +2
    Indeed, OPEC is losing credibility. The benefit so far is only from "hype." I do not believe that ALL OPEC members will adhere to the agreement.
    And yet, as the author notes, high oil prices are beneficial for the Yankees with their (rather expensive) shale oil production technologies.
    1. PavelT
      PavelT 11 July 2019 01: 07 New
      0
      They will not.
      Just a week ago, Saudi Arabia brazenly lowered the prices of their oil
      https://www.finanz.ru/novosti/birzhevyye-tovary/saudovskaya-araviya-rezko-snizila-ceny-na-neft-dlya-evropy-i-azii-1028330848
      - dumping barmolyas ...
  4. Valery Valery
    Valery Valery 4 July 2019 06: 17 New
    +3
    I would like to know the opinion of a specialist.
    The article goes: cheap oil is beneficial to Russia - I don’t understand ...
    1. Aaron Zawi
      Aaron Zawi 4 July 2019 06: 41 New
      +7
      Quote: Valery Valery
      I would like to know the opinion of a specialist.
      The article goes: cheap oil is beneficial to Russia - I don’t understand ...

      I am not an expert, but yesterday I came across with thoughts on the same subject. I will quote from her.

      Continuing to lose its share in the world market, the cartel is de facto surrendering it to the American shale producers, which over the 3 years of the transaction increased production by 3,5 million barrels per day.
      This process will continue, but - which is more dangerous - in the next year and a half, the USA can increase oil exports by 2-3 times and reach the volumes that are currently sold only by Riyadh and the Russian Federation, Citi analyst Eric Lee warns.
      By the end of the 2021 year, the capacity of pipelines transporting oil from the Permian largest shale basin will triple - as a result, up to 4 million barrels per day will flow to the ports of the east coast (Rystad Enegry estimate).
      Two large Texas ports - Corpus Christi and Freeport - will be reconfigured for oil exports. The terminal in the first is being built by Trafigura, in the second - Enterprise Products Partners.
      As a result, Permian alone will be able to double production in 6 years, Lee predicts: from 4 to 8 million barrels per day. The total production of liquid hydrocarbons in the United States by this time, according to the IEA forecast, will reach 18 million barrels per day. And exports may exceed 5 million.




      1. akims
        akims 4 July 2019 07: 53 New
        -1
        And who told you that Putin is fighting the United States. That they are fighting with Putin.
  5. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 4 July 2019 06: 28 New
    0
    And why in the photo is the respected OPECK without a Bedouin scarf? wink
    1. Ugolek
      Ugolek 4 July 2019 06: 42 New
      -1
      I would like to know the opinion of a specialist.
      The article goes: cheap oil is beneficial to Russia - I don’t understand ...


      Cheap oil is not beneficial to anyone; it is about breaking the United States with its shale revolution. To do this, it is assumed that a temporary reduction will lead to higher oil prices, where shale producers will begin to die. In response, the United States will begin to increase and fill the vacant niche, but again, incurring additional operating, logistics and tax expenses. In a word, they want to starve to death.
      1. Harry.km
        Harry.km 5 July 2019 08: 22 New
        +3
        Quote: Ugolek
        To do this, it is assumed that a temporary reduction will lead to higher oil prices, where shale producers will begin to die

        The cognitive dissonance???
    2. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 4 July 2019 08: 44 New
      +2
      The people! What do you dislike? The country lives off oil and gas - we all
      you need to wear such handkerchiefs! Sheikhs, understand ...
  6. parusnik
    parusnik 4 July 2019 06: 53 New
    0
    Economic wars do not fade ...
  7. VLR
    VLR 4 July 2019 07: 52 New
    +6
    Already tried to "strangle" shale oil (and gas) production. The result: a catastrophic fall in prices, shock even for Saudi Arabia - and quite alive and healthy US shalers. Russian oil oligarchs and Sechin representing them are concerned only with short-term profits. Their goal is to grab more money now and transfer them to offshore, and what will happen tomorrow they are not interested. They have long been on a “low start”, and are ready at any moment to “dump” from Russia like Abramovich and Prokhorov.
  8. rocket757
    rocket757 4 July 2019 08: 30 New
    +1
    There is no such thing that everyone liked everything! And even in trade, and even more so, the laws of competition are not peaceful in any way .... at the level of a ceasefire, they will not be easy.
    Iran, like everyone with BV themselves with a mustache! It is necessary to cooperate, speak with them specifically ..... but just turning away and crushing (if you can do it again?) Is not productive .... although it’s a situational ally, some interests coincide.
  9. Antipatr
    Antipatr 4 July 2019 09: 12 New
    +3
    Quote: Ugolek
    To do this, it is assumed that a temporary reduction will lead to higher oil prices, where shale producers will begin to die.

    You have something wrong with the logic. Low oil prices kill shale oil production because its prime cost is high.
    Conversely, high prices lead to the heyday of shale mining.
    This means that the agreement between Russia and OPEC is beneficial for shale producers and they will simply occupy the vacant niche and prevent a shortage of oil and a further increase in its cost.
    1. WIKI
      WIKI 4 July 2019 09: 45 New
      +1
      Quote: Antipatr
      Low oil prices kill shale oil production because its prime cost is high.

      High, how much?
      1. Antipatr
        Antipatr 4 July 2019 19: 59 New
        -1
        High, how much?

        Depends on the deposit. A couple of years ago, the threshold of profitability was considered to be from 30 to 60 dollars per barrel. However, technology is developing and this threshold is gradually decreasing.
        1. WIKI
          WIKI 4 July 2019 22: 00 New
          +1
          The average price of a barrel of shale oil for 2019 is $ 32.
  10. Antipatr
    Antipatr 4 July 2019 09: 25 New
    -3
    Cartel conspiracies are considered an economic crime worldwide and are prosecuted. Countries - oil and gas importers should create OSINEGP - Organization of countries - oil importers and exporters of finished products, services and intellectual property. They must introduce special duties on their goods, raw materials and services that are bought by OPEC countries and its partners in a cartel arrangement. Validity - until the actual dissolution of OPEC. OSINEGP could include the USA, EU countries, China, Japan, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Kazakhstan and other countries.
  11. Ee-mae bee
    Ee-mae bee 4 July 2019 10: 22 New
    -5
    A fundamental error in the point of view itself. The question is being considered - ah-ah, they will increase production. So what? Do you understand that oil is an exhaustible resource? Whoever empties the flask faster than anyone else, in a long race, he will die faster.
    Short-term gain is nothing, a year, maybe five - and that’s all. Yes, and this is not a fact, this is a mirror of the gas situation. You can even leave Europe - and so what? Will the US take our place? Just keep in mind that Holland STOPPING production. and Norway REDUCES - it is necessary to take the place of three suppliers at once, and no one will pull it stupidly in reserves.
    With oil, the same canoe - the Saudis are already rebuilding the economy - oil there already ends in the foreseeable future. Venezuela - and look where oil is now extracted - more and more into the sea.
    Convenient deposits have been exhausted ALREADY, and the “shale revolution” that the author mentioned - he forgot to decipher what did not happen - the shales remained three times as expensive.
    Gazprom, for the same reason, howls - it cuts the SIMONATE profit. Offices. And in the title - it's about the country. The country needs LONG-term prospects, and for them, an agreement is needed
    1. WIKI
      WIKI 4 July 2019 17: 10 New
      0
      Quote: Bee E-mayo
      he forgot to decrypt that it did not take place - and the shales remained three times as expensive.
      Well, and what is the cost of shale in Russia? The numbers?
      1. Ee-mae bee
        Ee-mae bee 4 July 2019 17: 53 New
        -2
        https://neftok.ru/dobycha-razvedka/sebestoimost-dobychi-nefti.html#sebestoimost-neftedobychi-v-raznyh-stranah-mira
        In Google banned?
        In principle, it cannot go below 60. Despite the fact that in Russia 30 when selling is a threshold for profitability, the cost price is even lower
        1. WIKI
          WIKI 4 July 2019 21: 57 New
          +3
          I look at the table, there is the United States (shale oil) - 32 $ USA;
          1. Ee-mae bee
            Ee-mae bee 5 July 2019 10: 22 New
            -3
            So if you look without taxes, then from the "bubble" - from 5 to 8) Vseravno - oops
            What price did you say? At the well, no?
            1. WIKI
              WIKI 5 July 2019 11: 41 New
              +1
              I argued about the number 60. There is also the item "Russia (new deposits) - $ 16 USA;" And for clarity: “Starting from 2025, the fund of existing fields will cease to cope with the load. And by the year 2035, according to the Ministry of Energy, production volumes can almost double - from the current 553 million tons per year (11,4 million barrels per day) ), up to 310 million tons (6,3 million barrels per day) .Https: //www.finanz.ru/novosti/aktsii/nefti-v-rossii-ostalos-na-7-let-1027836471
              1. Ee-mae bee
                Ee-mae bee 5 July 2019 14: 50 New
                0
                For forecasts I’ll say this: I saw different ones. and believe - exploration. The rest - well, you yourself understand that taking from shale is more problematic. than even from bitumen sands! It will be more expensive - right? Well, look at the revolution, yes ...
  12. shinobi
    shinobi 4 July 2019 10: 33 New
    -3
    It seems to me that the scheme is quite simple, risky but simple. Keeping prices at such a level so that the US shale mining companies get as deep as possible involved in the process. And under this they will have to take large loans, oil shale is expensive. Further, oil prices fall off to 35-40 green for the barrel. For us with the Saudis it’s unpleasant but uncritical, but the slates fly out into the pipe. Curtain. In military affairs, this is called to drive the enemy into the boiler.
    1. Harry.km
      Harry.km 5 July 2019 08: 28 New
      0
      Quote: shinobi
      It seems to me that the scheme is quite simple, risky but simple. Keeping prices at such a level so that the US shale mining companies get as deep as possible involved in the process. And under this they will have to take large loans, oil shale is expensive. Further, oil prices fall off to 35-40 green for the barrel. For us with the Saudis it’s unpleasant but uncritical, but the slates fly out into the pipe. Curtain. In military affairs, this is called to drive the enemy into the boiler.


      Another HPP?
      1. shinobi
        shinobi 5 July 2019 20: 15 New
        0
        I don’t think, rather, Saudis. They have had a lot of disagreements since the Yankees. The mattresses see themselves as masters of everything and everything, the sheikhs have their own opinion on this. For them, Russia is a temporary ally, the dark grandmaster takes advantage of the moment.
        1. PavelT
          PavelT 11 July 2019 01: 43 New
          0
          Your idea of ​​a collapse in the price of oil (and knocking out shalers) is generally interesting.
          Maybe it will.

          But ... it is in some way a maneuver not along the path of progress, but rather along the path of regression (and with the most regressive and religious country of the gas station that arranged ISIS and a fire in Syria). So parasitic countries like Saudi Arabia need not help but drown them.
          And getting them this benefit for yourself. For example, as described here: https://filimon-omon.livejournal.com/4928.html

          Meanwhile, in Russia, 5-6 has already borrowed the experience and technology of shalers in all of Russia: multi-well, tree-boring wells drilled from depth, turn of wells, horizontal trunks, hydraulic fracturing ... (not always successfully used: https: // mr -7cux.livejournal.com/15607.html - but usually there is progress) All this from there, all this from the USA. Few people know, but there is the longest well in the world on Sakhalin, which is longer (but not deeper) Kola sverhglubokaya: https://www.rosneft.ru/press/news/item/188675/

          As you understand, US shale oilmen will only be happy if Saudi Arabia, together with its oil production, disappears altogether from the world map. Like our oilmen ... catch the thought?
          1. shinobi
            shinobi 12 July 2019 02: 04 New
            0
            I agree, at the moment there is a positional war. The winner will not be determined soon.
  13. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 4 July 2019 10: 43 New
    +3
    So, Rosneft reacted extremely negatively to the OPEC + deal.
    Of course. When selling oil over a hill, the most delicious part of the profit that goes directly to Rosneft’s management and the right people is directly behind the hill. What can not but rejoice, right?
    And here is such an ambush - to compensate for the losses, it is necessary to increase the share of processed raw materials, receiving gasoline. What would be good if it were not for these unbearable Russian auditors who are so uncomfortable! Yes, and you need to sell much more gas in the domestic market! Generally terrible.
    Instead of pushing the raw materials across the border and counting the dibs on your own account, you need to get involved in all these works - the margin is small, so you need to do a lot of things. Improve logistics, intelligently and skillfully work with sales, spend all kinds of optimizations there all the time ... And then also pay taxes! And own revenues OPEN SHOW !!
    We will be honest (at least we. At least here). Among the leadership of our oil industry there are no people who are capable of all this. Its leadership is made up of the decision makers responsible for transferring the oversized share to officials (and how to do this under the conditions of accounting in one country ?!), and frank bandits. Soak someone, select something, nightmare, this is for them. To establish a profitable business process in the conditions of civilized profit? Are you kidding me?!
    In addition, to increase gasoline sales in the country, it is necessary to lower its price. This is generally no way !! They organized the “Tax Maneuver” in order to push more raw materials abroad, to make it easier to hide the bureaucratic share in the new conditions, when the highest authorities are trying to reduce the unlimited appetites of the official thieves (the tax maneuver has no other purpose and cannot be, in all its manifestations, it is extremely harmful to the economy).
  14. evgen1221
    evgen1221 4 July 2019 10: 45 New
    +1
    What is this to us? Oh yes, prices will rise again.
  15. Goodmen
    Goodmen 4 July 2019 13: 26 New
    +1
    Profitable, not profitable ... You can talk long and tedious. But, there is a good indicator! Our propagandists. If they "drown" for this deal, then the matter is "seams". If they scold (which is not realistic) or doubt, then we will wait)

    But in general, gasoline anyway, as it became more expensive, it will go up in price. "There will be no return to socialism! Treat this with understanding."

    wassat

    The main thing is that there would be no next reforms and optimizations, which are then 100% likely to come out to the side of the people. Let them make fun of the oil theme, all the same, pennies reach us from the gas and oil industry, taking into account all the “nuances”. About "us" did not mean those who work in / on the gas-oil / y.
  16. rayruav
    rayruav 4 July 2019 19: 49 New
    0
    the extraction of oil, gas and other snacks by which our country is so rich does not cancel the primacy of the manufacturing industry, without the manufacturing sector of the economy (not just VPK) we unfortunately are a gas station, the manufacture of a number of titanium parts for Boeing does not indicate the high potential of the industry as a whole, but the most the terrible thing is the lack of competent workers and engineers, and the situation is only getting worse or the boorders at the top are thinking of putting Central Asia to the machines (although it seems that they don’t know how to think)
  17. Antipatr
    Antipatr 4 July 2019 20: 12 New
    0
    Quote: shinobi
    For us with the Saudis, this is unpleasant but uncritical, but the shales fly out into the pipe.

    Don't you know that in 2015 Brent collapsed from $ 110 to $ 30, and the shale producers survived this safely?
    The shale market in the United States is decentralized, not corporations - monopolists, but literally hundreds of medium and small companies. It is private in a good sense of the word and has tremendous flexibility. As soon as the price falls below the profitability threshold, the rigs are conserved, and the staff dissolves. Until the next promotion ...
  18. Antipatr
    Antipatr 4 July 2019 20: 22 New
    0
    This is the dynamics of the price of Brent
  19. Comrade Kim
    Comrade Kim 4 July 2019 22: 20 New
    +1
    Quote: Ugolek
    Remember how they turned their nose when a nuclear deal was made and they got access to their frozen money?

    If you recall, that's all.
    But what about the Medvedev turn of croup for Persians with paid C-300 complexes?
    So they got hurt, and after all it was possible not to crap, but to calmly carry out the agreement, while Israel and the United States were bursting a fart from dull anger.
    What they (Jews and Merikans) promised to Medvedev is still not clear (is it really a new iPhone)).
  20. Normal ok
    Normal ok 6 July 2019 12: 09 New
    -1
    Iran is a competitor to Russia in the world market, as produces oil and gas

    Produces? Did I miss something? It may be mining and not produces?
  21. Polymer
    Polymer 6 July 2019 19: 30 New
    0
    Yeah, that’s what Karl Marx could not have foreseen, is the "oil economy". Indeed, with the advent of the primacy of oil in the world market, capitalism itself has changed. Mimicry, which led to the unsolvability of the task of the world revolution of the proletariat. What now, how to be? Unfortunately, we do not have Marx, nor, moreover, Lenin. But they could not foresee everything, and they could not.
    Is an “oil deal” profitable for our country?

    I would like to clarify exactly who the author means by "our country"? Well owners? So they will win anyway. The people, the population - in any case, lose.
    So the question is not which country will benefit from oil price maneuvers, but how these bonuses will be distributed within the country.
  22. PavelT
    PavelT 11 July 2019 01: 12 New
    0
    Quote: Bee E-mayo
    The country needs long-term prospects, and for them a contract is needed

    The agreement with Saudi Arabia is just Russian roulette. Believing this Wahhabi is not respecting oneself. They have already proved their vile and deceitful conviction many times. Recently (a week ago) they began dumping again, they wrote above).