Nord Stream 2. Gazprom at the finish line
Opponents of the global transit project have less and less time and chances to slow down the laying of pipes along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. The most important thing that the Russian gas giant has managed to achieve under unprecedented pressure of various kinds of obstacles is to separate business from politics.
Western analysts, including American analysts, including many supporters of the “tough pragmatists” of the Trump administration, admit that attempts to use such measures as sanctions against “Gazprom” and its partners in the “North Stream 2” project .
Launched by the light of Russian Gazprom in collaboration with four leading European gas companies, the Nord Stream 2 project has become a much more problematic continuation of the already implemented Nord Stream project. From a commercial point of view, it is important not only for the Russian gas monopolist, but for its partners, which explains their resistance under the pressure of sanctions, political chatter and other circumstances, sometimes unpredictable.
The gas consortium of Russia and the EU, which is represented by the German E.ON, the transnational giant Shell, the Dutch Gasunie and the Austrian OMV, has achieved a rare business success, having managed to attract to the project external financing in the amount of 6,4 billion euros. And this is despite serious financial and economic difficulties, despite the fact that international financial markets are not currently set up for long-term lending by no means indisputable projects.
The fact that after Nord Stream 2 continued the first phase of the project can be considered unique, the amount of financing only increased, and as a result, the initial offer of creditors exceeded the amount attracted by 60%. At present, pipe builders have crossed the 50-percent boundary of the length of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It remains for them to lay on two lines a little more than 1000 kilometers, and work is being done at once on several sections. Delivery of pipes and all the necessary goes almost smoothly, mainly from the territories of Russia and Germany, where no one is going to pay attention to any countermeasures.
However, no concrete action on one building platforms and is not afraid, because of the US regularly initiated any measures primarily of a financial nature. What is actually quite typical for such a "world cashier", like Washington. Taking into account the fact that almost all the necessary coastal work on the project has already been completed, Gazprom’s plans to launch gas into the Nord Stream 2 already at the end of the year look quite realistic.
Nobody argues that the Nord Stream 2 is expensive, even very expensive, but hardly more expensive than the development of the American project of supplying liquefied natural gas to the same Europe. The American president, an ardent supporter of the liberal market model, cannot but be annoyed by the fact that SP-2, even together with SP-1, did not fall under the European antitrust laws and passed almost all the pitfalls associated with the problems of Ukrainian transit.
However, Trump cannot abandon the need to promote American gas to Europe - it threatens to lose points in the election race, and it threatens him personally, and the Republican Party. After all, Republicans do not have any promising alternative candidate at this particular moment. The United States is not Ukraine, and the “Zelensky option” will not work here. And so you have to beat the "Nord Stream 2" on the tails, and for average people in the case of almost guaranteed failure, simply refer to objective circumstances.
Today in the future, the “Nord Stream 2” is another American run over partners. The American magazine Foreign Policy has unearthed the details of the bill, according to which companies participating not only in the Nord Stream 2 project, but also in laying “all Russian offshore pipelines” may be subject to US sanctions. And without warning.
It is clear that only the “Turkish stream” still appears as “all”, since the law will apply to ships used in laying pipelines at a depth of 30 meters and more for exporting Russian gas. However, all this takes place only if the law is passed, which takes time, although we should not forget that sometimes American senators are very operational, and Gazprom, as we know, does not greatly limit itself to long-term plans.
For the sake of such a “long-term” plan, political opponents from the Senate — an advanced Democrat from New Hampshire state Jean Shahin and Texas Republican Ted Cruz — even sat down in the same boat. According to the magazine, these experienced politicians who met in the Senate under Barack Obama, have already begun to develop a bill.
It is planned that companies that sell or rent vessels participating in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 will be prohibited from doing business in the United States. And the owners and the first persons of such companies will be restricted from entering the country, and their American assets will be frozen. Those who provide financial or technical support, as well as insurance of such vessels will also be at risk.
Against whom such measures will be directed, one can calculate even without reading the text: these are exclusively Gazprom partners, owning technologies that are not available to offshore or dummy structures. Among the current partners of the Russian gas monopoly, the media have already identified two construction companies: the Swiss Allseas and the Italian Saipem.
At the moment, they are unlikely to face any difficulties, since the main deliveries have already been completed, and in extreme cases it will be necessary either to speed up the work before the adoption of the American law, or to use the services of intermediaries who are not afraid of sanctions. Chinese and South Korean companies are most likely already lining up. More difficult with the prospects of cooperation with the same Italians and Swiss in the future, but by that time everything can be like Khoja Nasreddin - either the donkey will die, or the emir, or ...
Of course, one cannot rule out some increase in the cost of the project, and yet any sanctions, especially potential ones, as they say in Odessa, are not a problem, these are expenses. It seems to stop the project, which is ready to have more than 50%, can only be a global disaster. The United States can continue to fight with everyone at once, and can further promote its obsessive idea of "make America greate again", literally pushing Europe into Russian arms.
The route of the second “stream” was almost originally conceived as a repetition of the first, which provided very substantial savings on a number of expenditure items. Now, some changes are still possible due to the fact that the announcement of the decision on the coordination of the Nord Stream 2 route from Denmark was delayed. However, there is little doubt that under the German pressure, Copenhagen is likely to go to a certain diplomatic form of receiving compensation for its consent.
At the same time, many critics of the second branch of Nord Stream continue to call the project overly costly and hardly payable, even in the long term. Nevertheless, given the ever-growing demand for such a relatively clean source of energy as gas in an environmentally friendly Europe, the prospect of permanently filling the Nord Stream 2 pipe is almost beyond doubt.
Dmitry Khandoga, deputy head of Gazprom’s foreign economic activity department, told the press that the company is developing measures to keep the project on schedule.
Currently, Nord Stream 2 pipes are fully laid only in the Russian and German parts of the route, while in the exclusive economic zones of Finland and Sweden, after receiving the necessary approvals, full-scale work is already underway. The Danish section still remains untouched. Experts from the oil and gas industry admit that while the most unfavorable scenario is being implemented, the Americans seem to have managed to find the “weak link” of the project.
Now Denmark has taken a position that shows its attitude to create conditions, if not for a breakdown, then for a serious drag on the project. But we must bear in mind that the rigid Danish "no" does not mean the closure of the project - there is a way around the "Danish zone", although it is quite long. When in Copenhagen, nevertheless decide to no longer keep silent, remain virtually only pave a very small portion.
The Nord Stream 2 were originally developed two variants of the route to laying pipe in the exclusive economic zone of Denmark. In Copenhagen, as reported, they are still being considered. At the intermediate stage, it was noted that both options do not meet the expectations of the supervisory commission. Now the commission is studying the third, the most "green" route option, which assessed the impact on the environment.
It must pass south of Bornholm, and is considered the most acceptable for Denmark. But there are no guarantees for approval either, but there are chances to influence Denmark, given that the exclusive economic zone, unlike territorial waters, has nothing to do with state sovereignty. Influence even through the courts, although this is precisely what would delay the start of the second "stream" and will bring huge losses to the project participants.
All the recent complications with Nord Stream 2 have to be considered from the point of view of the upcoming talks on the resumption of Ukrainian transit, to which the Europeans are eager to redirect billion cubic meters of Russian gas to 60-70. And then many benefits of the second “stream” become very doubtful, since sufficient filling of its pipes will be in question immediately for two reasons. There will be nothing to fill 100 with all percentages - some will go to Ukraine, and there is no need - Ukrainian transit, along with supplies of American LNG, can significantly reduce demand. At least in the early years of Nord Stream 2.
Western analysts, including American analysts, including many supporters of the “tough pragmatists” of the Trump administration, admit that attempts to use such measures as sanctions against “Gazprom” and its partners in the “North Stream 2” project .
Second shift
Launched by the light of Russian Gazprom in collaboration with four leading European gas companies, the Nord Stream 2 project has become a much more problematic continuation of the already implemented Nord Stream project. From a commercial point of view, it is important not only for the Russian gas monopolist, but for its partners, which explains their resistance under the pressure of sanctions, political chatter and other circumstances, sometimes unpredictable.
The gas consortium of Russia and the EU, which is represented by the German E.ON, the transnational giant Shell, the Dutch Gasunie and the Austrian OMV, has achieved a rare business success, having managed to attract to the project external financing in the amount of 6,4 billion euros. And this is despite serious financial and economic difficulties, despite the fact that international financial markets are not currently set up for long-term lending by no means indisputable projects.
The fact that after Nord Stream 2 continued the first phase of the project can be considered unique, the amount of financing only increased, and as a result, the initial offer of creditors exceeded the amount attracted by 60%. At present, pipe builders have crossed the 50-percent boundary of the length of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It remains for them to lay on two lines a little more than 1000 kilometers, and work is being done at once on several sections. Delivery of pipes and all the necessary goes almost smoothly, mainly from the territories of Russia and Germany, where no one is going to pay attention to any countermeasures.
However, no concrete action on one building platforms and is not afraid, because of the US regularly initiated any measures primarily of a financial nature. What is actually quite typical for such a "world cashier", like Washington. Taking into account the fact that almost all the necessary coastal work on the project has already been completed, Gazprom’s plans to launch gas into the Nord Stream 2 already at the end of the year look quite realistic.
Nobody argues that the Nord Stream 2 is expensive, even very expensive, but hardly more expensive than the development of the American project of supplying liquefied natural gas to the same Europe. The American president, an ardent supporter of the liberal market model, cannot but be annoyed by the fact that SP-2, even together with SP-1, did not fall under the European antitrust laws and passed almost all the pitfalls associated with the problems of Ukrainian transit.
However, Trump cannot abandon the need to promote American gas to Europe - it threatens to lose points in the election race, and it threatens him personally, and the Republican Party. After all, Republicans do not have any promising alternative candidate at this particular moment. The United States is not Ukraine, and the “Zelensky option” will not work here. And so you have to beat the "Nord Stream 2" on the tails, and for average people in the case of almost guaranteed failure, simply refer to objective circumstances.
Latecomers are asked not to worry
Today in the future, the “Nord Stream 2” is another American run over partners. The American magazine Foreign Policy has unearthed the details of the bill, according to which companies participating not only in the Nord Stream 2 project, but also in laying “all Russian offshore pipelines” may be subject to US sanctions. And without warning.
It is clear that only the “Turkish stream” still appears as “all”, since the law will apply to ships used in laying pipelines at a depth of 30 meters and more for exporting Russian gas. However, all this takes place only if the law is passed, which takes time, although we should not forget that sometimes American senators are very operational, and Gazprom, as we know, does not greatly limit itself to long-term plans.
Senators Ted Cruz and Gene Sheehan may not be in time with another portion of sanctions
For the sake of such a “long-term” plan, political opponents from the Senate — an advanced Democrat from New Hampshire state Jean Shahin and Texas Republican Ted Cruz — even sat down in the same boat. According to the magazine, these experienced politicians who met in the Senate under Barack Obama, have already begun to develop a bill.
It is planned that companies that sell or rent vessels participating in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 will be prohibited from doing business in the United States. And the owners and the first persons of such companies will be restricted from entering the country, and their American assets will be frozen. Those who provide financial or technical support, as well as insurance of such vessels will also be at risk.
Against whom such measures will be directed, one can calculate even without reading the text: these are exclusively Gazprom partners, owning technologies that are not available to offshore or dummy structures. Among the current partners of the Russian gas monopoly, the media have already identified two construction companies: the Swiss Allseas and the Italian Saipem.
At the moment, they are unlikely to face any difficulties, since the main deliveries have already been completed, and in extreme cases it will be necessary either to speed up the work before the adoption of the American law, or to use the services of intermediaries who are not afraid of sanctions. Chinese and South Korean companies are most likely already lining up. More difficult with the prospects of cooperation with the same Italians and Swiss in the future, but by that time everything can be like Khoja Nasreddin - either the donkey will die, or the emir, or ...
Of course, one cannot rule out some increase in the cost of the project, and yet any sanctions, especially potential ones, as they say in Odessa, are not a problem, these are expenses. It seems to stop the project, which is ready to have more than 50%, can only be a global disaster. The United States can continue to fight with everyone at once, and can further promote its obsessive idea of "make America greate again", literally pushing Europe into Russian arms.
Silence of the Danes
The route of the second “stream” was almost originally conceived as a repetition of the first, which provided very substantial savings on a number of expenditure items. Now, some changes are still possible due to the fact that the announcement of the decision on the coordination of the Nord Stream 2 route from Denmark was delayed. However, there is little doubt that under the German pressure, Copenhagen is likely to go to a certain diplomatic form of receiving compensation for its consent.
At the same time, many critics of the second branch of Nord Stream continue to call the project overly costly and hardly payable, even in the long term. Nevertheless, given the ever-growing demand for such a relatively clean source of energy as gas in an environmentally friendly Europe, the prospect of permanently filling the Nord Stream 2 pipe is almost beyond doubt.
Dmitry Khandoga, deputy head of Gazprom’s foreign economic activity department, told the press that the company is developing measures to keep the project on schedule.
“We are analyzing how the issuance of the Danish permit will affect at one time or another, we are working on developing measures to preserve the project on schedule. I can say that at the moment is stored chance or a high probability of pipeline construction and start it before the end of this year. "
Currently, Nord Stream 2 pipes are fully laid only in the Russian and German parts of the route, while in the exclusive economic zones of Finland and Sweden, after receiving the necessary approvals, full-scale work is already underway. The Danish section still remains untouched. Experts from the oil and gas industry admit that while the most unfavorable scenario is being implemented, the Americans seem to have managed to find the “weak link” of the project.
Now Denmark has taken a position that shows its attitude to create conditions, if not for a breakdown, then for a serious drag on the project. But we must bear in mind that the rigid Danish "no" does not mean the closure of the project - there is a way around the "Danish zone", although it is quite long. When in Copenhagen, nevertheless decide to no longer keep silent, remain virtually only pave a very small portion.
The Nord Stream 2 were originally developed two variants of the route to laying pipe in the exclusive economic zone of Denmark. In Copenhagen, as reported, they are still being considered. At the intermediate stage, it was noted that both options do not meet the expectations of the supervisory commission. Now the commission is studying the third, the most "green" route option, which assessed the impact on the environment.
It must pass south of Bornholm, and is considered the most acceptable for Denmark. But there are no guarantees for approval either, but there are chances to influence Denmark, given that the exclusive economic zone, unlike territorial waters, has nothing to do with state sovereignty. Influence even through the courts, although this is precisely what would delay the start of the second "stream" and will bring huge losses to the project participants.
All the recent complications with Nord Stream 2 have to be considered from the point of view of the upcoming talks on the resumption of Ukrainian transit, to which the Europeans are eager to redirect billion cubic meters of Russian gas to 60-70. And then many benefits of the second “stream” become very doubtful, since sufficient filling of its pipes will be in question immediately for two reasons. There will be nothing to fill 100 with all percentages - some will go to Ukraine, and there is no need - Ukrainian transit, along with supplies of American LNG, can significantly reduce demand. At least in the early years of Nord Stream 2.
Information