Missed chapter "Strategy-2020"
In his article "Russia - the national question" V.V. Putin has finally touched the most acute problem. Touched in a peculiar way: the processes that are spoken about in the article are not verified by a single digit! All the arguments hang in the air, as there is no stable foundation under them. How can you talk about the most complicated processes in interethnic relations without defining these processes in generally understandable figures ?!
First of all, V.V. Putin should have shown the figures at what rate the extinction of the Russian people is proceeding and its replacement by external migration. To the best of his abilities, the author of these lines tried to fill the annoying gap of this article. I hope that an attentive reader who is friendly with numbers will appreciate the proposed calculations. And those who disagree with the above calculations can offer their own.
The extinction of the Russian people
According to the results of the 2002 census, in the historically Russian regions of the Russian Federation of the Central, Northwestern and Volga federal districts, the 21 region was recorded, in which the Russian share was more than 90% of the population: Vologodskaya (96,6%), Tambov (96,5%), Bryansk (96,3%) ), Lipetsk and Kursk (in 95,8%), Oryol (95,3%), Tula (95,2%), Yaroslavl (95,1%), Nizhny Novgorod (95%), Vladimirskaya (94,75%), Ryazan (94,5%), Pskov (94,3%) %), Arkhangelskaya (94,2%), Voronezhskaya (94,1%), Novgorodskaya (93,9%), Ivanovo (93,7%), Kaluga (93,5%), my own Smolensk (93,4%), Belgorodskaya (XN UMX%), Tverskaya (92,9%), Moscow (92,5%), in the Leningrad region the Russian share was 91% of the population.
For the time being, I leave without comment the factor of multimillion external migration, the main part of which is not shown by the Rosstat chronicles.
In its yearbooks, Rosstat reports indicators of fertility, mortality, natural increase / natural loss (extinction) in each region of the Russian Federation. All listed, historically Russian regions are dying out! For calculating the benchmark figures of extinction of the Russian people, the author uses an obvious method: among these regions, three with maximum and three with minimum indicators of natural loss-extinction (death rate over birth rate per 1000 population) are taken, the average extinction is calculated, which is multiplied by the current number of Russian people . The result is the reference figure for the extinction of the Russian people in a particular year.
According to the 12 census of January 1989, the number of Russian people in the RSFSR was 119,9 million. In the first half of 1989, the rapidly decaying natural increase of the Russian people increased its number in the RSFSR to 1990 million. In the middle of 1991, the Russian death rate exceeded the Russian birth rate, and the Russian people began to die out. According to the census of the year Russian 120,5 in the Russian Federation turned out to be 1991 million, and according to the census of the year 2002 115,9 million
Migration growth for 1989-2010 years Rosstat showed in 7 million. Suppose that this is the benchmark figures of the migration increase of the Russian people during this period. Still, the Russians in those years mainly drove into Russia than they left. Based on these figures, we approximately determine the current number of the Russian people for a particular year. Consider calculations for several years.
1995 year. The maximum extinction coefficients in this year showed: Pskov region (minus 13,1 on 1000 population), Tverskaya (minus 12,3) and Tula (minus 12,1); minimum: Belgorod (minus 5,4), Bryansk (minus 6,7) and Orlovskaya (minus 7,4). The average extinction rate for regions where the Russian share is more than 90% of the population turned out to be in the 1995 year - minus 9,5 per 1000 population. By the way, this indicator 1995 of the year for the whole of the Russian Federation amounted to minus 5,7 on 1000.
Assume that the number of Russian people in 1995 was 119 million. Hence, the reference point of the extinction of the Russian people that year is minus 1 130 000. The total extinction rate in the Russian Federation was minus 840 thousand. It turns out that all other peoples of Russia and, above all, historically indigenous Muslims for Russia and all newcomers from external migration have a natural increase (excess birth rate over mortality), which amounted to 1995 about plus 290 thousand
2000 year. The maximum extinction coefficients in this year showed: Pskov region (minus 14,9 on 1000 population), Tula (minus 14,2) and Tverskaya (minus 14,1); minimum: Vologodskaya (minus 7,2), Belgorod (minus 7,5) and Lipetsk (minus 8,7). The average extinction rate for regions where the Russian share is more than 90% of the population turned out to be in the 2000 year - minus 11,1 per 1000 population. By the way, this indicator 2000 of the year for the whole of the Russian Federation amounted to minus 6,6 on 1000.
Assume that the number of Russian people in 2000 was 117 million. Hence, the reference point of the extinction of the Russian people that year is minus 1 300 000. The total extinction rate in the Russian Federation was minus 958,5 thousand. It turns out that all other peoples of Russia and, above all, historically indigenous Muslims for Russia and all newcomers from external migration experienced a natural increase, which amounted to about 2000 thousand in 340 year.
2005 year. The maximum extinction coefficients in this year showed: Pskov region (minus 15,7 on 1000 population), Tula (minus 14,2) and Tverskaya (minus 13,7); minimum: Belgorod (minus 7,1), Vologda (minus 8,3) and Lipetsk (minus 8,6). The average extinction rate for regions where the Russian share is more than 90% of the population turned out to be in 2005 minus 11,25 per 1000 population. By the way, this indicator 2005 of the year for the whole of the Russian Federation amounted to minus 5,9 on 1000.
Assume that the number of Russian people in 2005 was 114 million. Hence, the reference point of the extinction of the Russian people that year is minus 1 285 000. The total extinction rate in the Russian Federation was minus 846,5 thousand. It turns out that all other peoples of Russia and, above all, historically indigenous Muslims for Russia and all newcomers from external migration experienced a natural increase, which amounted to about 2005 thousand in 440 year.
2010 year. The maximum extinction coefficients in this year showed: Pskov region (minus 10,5 on 1000 population), Tula (minus 9,3) and Tverskaya (minus 9,0); minimum: Belgorod (minus 3,8), Vologda (minus 3,85) and Lipetsk (minus 5,3). The average extinction rate for regions where the Russian share is more than 90% of the population turned out to be in 2010 minus 7,0 per 1000 population. Please note that this indicator 2010 of the year for the entire RF amounted to only minus 1,7 on 1000.
The census-2010 showed that the number of Russian people in 2010 was 111 million. Hence, the reference point of the extinction of the Russian people that year is minus 770 000. The total extinction rate in the Russian Federation was minus 240 thousand. It turns out that all other peoples of Russia and, above all, historically indigenous Muslims for Russia and all newcomers from external migration experienced a natural increase, which amounted to about 2010 thousand in 530 year. Pay special attention to how this figure is steadily growing!
As a result of all the calculations, it turns out that in the 1992-2011 years in Russia, roughly, 22,5 million Russians have died out! Not dead - this is not a death rate - and not dead, but it is extinct! And not the average "dear Russians", which does not know any science, namely - Russian!
At the same time, I would like to hope that in general in Russia the demography of the Russian people is still better than its average in the historically Russian regions, in which the Russian share is more than 90% of the population. But in this case there is every reason to assert that the figure of the extinction of the Russian people for 1992-2011 has already passed the mark of 20 million! That is, the Russian mortality rate for 1992-2011 years exceeded the Russian birth rate at least (!) By 20 million! Minimum, because it is calculated from the official Rosstat reports, if they tell us the truth.
Just wondering why V.V. Putin came to talk about the national question in the North Caucasus Federal District, where everything is more than fine with demography, and not in the Pskov, Tver or Tula regions, where the Russian people are dying out by 1-1,5% per year ?! I repeat: it does not die, but dies out!
Summing up. For 1992-2011 in today's Russia, the overall index of natural loss-extinction (excess of mortality over birth rate) was, according to Rosstat, 13,5 million. At the same time, the Russian people died out by no less than 20 million. Therefore, all other peoples of Russia and, first In general, the historically indigenous for Russia Muslims (God forbid them!) and all newcomers from external migration experienced a natural increase of at least 6,5 million.
They will immediately indicate to me that, on the basis of my calculations, at the time of the census-2010 Russians should have been hardly more than 100 million! However, the census-2010 showed that the number of the Russian people is 111 million. It would have turned out if not for the two “salvage” processes!
The first “saving” process was the mass return of Russians to the Russian Federation from the former Soviet republics. Rosstat showed that the migration increase for 1989-2010 amounted to 7 million. Since the actual border control data on the total entry into Russia and the total exit from it are still closed, let us assume that the migration increase of the Russian people is no more than 7 million.
The second “salvation” process was the change of a significant part of the respondents in the 2002 and 2010 censuses of the definition of their own nationality. Thus, according to the census-1989, the Ukrainians recorded 4,3 million in the RSFSR; according to the census-2002 already in the Russian Federation - 2,9 million, and according to the census-2010 - 1,9 million! 2,4 million less than 1989 year! And despite the fact that the Russian Federation and Ukraine have a positive migration balance.
Belarusians in 1989 were recorded 1,2 million, in 2002-m - 808 thousand, and in 2010-m - 521,5 thousand, in 680 thousand. Less than in 1989 year!
Chuvash in 1989 was recorded 1774 thousand, in 2002-m - 1637 thousand, and in 2010-m - 1436 thousand, in 340 thousand less than in 1989 year!
Udmurtov in 1989 was recorded 715 thousand, in 2002-m - 637 thousand, and in 2010-m - 553 thousand, in 160 thousand. Less than in 1989 year! Etc. Plus, alien migrants, some of whom were also called Russian during the censuses.
In my opinion, a similar process can be estimated by a figure - up to 5 million. That is, the Russian people “arrived” at 5 million as a result of this process, and all other peoples - “lost.” Anyone can make sure that if it were not for these two "salvage" processes, there would be no more than 100 million in the Russian Federation today.
External migration
Ten years ago, six months before the census-2002, the assistant to the President of the Russian Federation V.P. Ivanov published an interview with an incredible level of substantive frankness in AIF (N15, 2002). It can be stated that this interview, given six months before the census-2002, revealingly refuted (!) The results of not only this census, the closest one at that time, but also the results of the next census-2010! V. Ivanov warned that this is "the assessment data of law enforcement agencies, which, by the way, have never been published before."
Last year, 2001 mln. Arrived through border control posts only from the CIS countries to Russia (14,5), and 11,5 million left the country, the rest was 3 million. The similar picture was in 1999 and 2000.
Let's compare. V. Ivanov said that only during these three years (1999-2001) and only from the CIS countries the migration increase amounted to 9 million! However, the official Rosstat reports on migration exchange between the Russian Federation and the CIS countries for 1999-2001 have so far reported something completely different.
1999 year: arrived - 362 708, left - 127 807, "remnant" - 234 901.
2000 year: arrived - 346 774, left - 83 312, "remnant" - 263 462.
2001 year: arrived - 183 650, left - 61 570, "remnant" - 122 080.
From here, according to Rosstat, the migration increase from the CIS countries over 1999-2001 amounted to only 620 443. Please note: the Rosstat version differs from the figures from the VP interview. Ivanov in 15 times!
If we take the indicator 3 million (from V. Ivanov) for a stable maximum, over the 1992-2001 years, the positive balance of the migration exchange of the Russian Federation with the CIS countries will be plus 30 million. If in the remaining years of this period a positive migration balance is assumed to be at least 1 million, then it was plus 16 million. Thus, it can be assumed that the average reference point of migration growth over 1992-2001 years only from the CIS countries was plus 23 million.
According to law enforcement agencies, about 600 000 citizens of Azerbaijan live in Moscow, of which only 60 000 are officially registered, and only 13 people have registered for tax accounting. After six months, the census-2002 counted, but not in Moscow, but in the whole of the Russian Federation, 621 840 Azerbaijanis, and the census-2010 and even less - 603 070.
Citizens of China in the capital are more than 100 000, and only 216 people are on tax records. The census-2002 found all 34 577 Chinese within the Russian Federation; and the census-2010 is 28 943.
The question is inevitable: how many Chinese citizens are in Russia today? On this score, something is known. Oleg Slobodchikov, Ph.D. (Political Science), demographer, reports the following: “There are different estimates of the number of Chinese visitors on Russian territory: from 2-2,5 million to 5-10 million people” (AiF, N46, 2005). These were estimates of 2005 of the year. A year later, he was supplemented by Doctor of Economic Sciences Krasnikov, without specifying, however, the source: “2 million Chinese settle down annually in Russia” (28.06.2006. “Our version.” TVC).
But nothing similar Rosstat stubbornly fixes. Meanwhile, the number of Chinese citizens within the Russian Federation can already be estimated at 10 million; and it turns out that the Tatars are no longer the second largest Russian people, but only the third! The second - the Chinese! It is even interesting how the ardent Tatar public (and not only Tatar) will react to this when it realizes what is happening.
According to the census-2002, in the Far Eastern Federal District there were only 6,5 million of citizens of the Russian Federation, and according to the census of 2010 - 6,3 million. In addition to the Chinese, who are in the country, apparently, 10 million, how many Vietnamese and Koreans? The question is legitimate: are we giving in, are we handing over the Far East? And how many migrants to the Russian Federation from the Arab world and from Africa?
And from the interview with V.P. Ivanova: “The total number of foreigners in Russia today exceeds 10 million. About half of them are illegal immigrants. If no legislative measures are taken, the number of illegal immigrants by the year 2010 may increase to 19 million. ” The census-2002 took into account 239 thousand people, temporarily (less than 1 of the year, according to the Rosstat version) who were in the territory of the Russian Federation; and the census-2010 of those recorded 489 th.
Beginning with 2004, the author of these lines patiently applied to the higher authorities of the country with a request to provide him with border control data on the total entry into the Russian Federation and the total exit from it. And it gave the result.
21 February 2011 of the year I received the sixth letter from the FMS from 08.02.2011 NMS-3 / 2383 to NHRI-4 / 4 from 25.01.2011, which was signed by the head of the Organization and Analytical Department, Ms. E.A. Radochina. The most incredible is in the “supplement” to the sixth letter of the FMS - this is the data of border control for 2005-2010 years! I draw attention to the fact that neither on the FSB website (www.fsb.ru), nor on the FMS website (www.fms.gov.ru), nor on the Rosstat website www.gks.ru, this information is available!
1 March 2011, I received the sixth letter from Rosstat from 18.02.2011 N8-0-20 / 146 to 4 / 5 from 25.01.2011, which, as always, was signed by the head of the Office of Population Statistics and Health, Ms. IA Zbarskaya. To quote a crucially important piece of it: “The time criterion for classifying the population as permanent is 12 months” (“Recommendations of the Conference of European Statisticians on Conducting Population and Housing Censuses 2010 of the Year”, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, New York, Geneva, 2006).
Citizens of the Russian Federation, foreign citizens and stateless persons registered in the territorial bodies of the Federal Migration Service at the place of residence or at the place of stay for a term of 1 a year or more (arrivals), as well as those removed from the register at the place of residence due to departure residence outside the Russian Federation (retired). The position of Rosstat on the issue of long-term migration accounting set out in previous answers (letters from 21.11.2004 N8-0-20 / 694; from 10.11.2006 N8-0-20 / 601; from 13.11. 2009 N8-0-20-916-XNUMX-XNUMX-XNUMX-XNUMX-XNUMX-XNUMX-XNUMX-XNUMX-XNUMX-XNUMX-XNUMX; XNUMX. XNUMX .
I will add that the letters from Rosstat from 30.03.2007 N8-0-20 / 164 and from 28.05.2010 N8-0-20 / 507 are not mentioned. There were five letters in total, this is the sixth.
Fix the “position of Rosstat”: if the migrant “registered with the territorial offices of the Federal Migration Service at the place of residence”, but lived on it less than 1 of the year, or did not register at all, then he is not subject to “statistical observation”! That is, there is no way for him in Russia ?! How nice!
And also note: I ask about border control data, and Rosstat provides data on registered (!) Long-term migration. I ask about one thing, and Rosstat answers completely about the other! But after the sixth letter of the FMS, such a reception by Rosstat looks just silly. Now we will study the parameters of unregistered (!) Long-term migration for 2005-2010 years.
There is a danger of overloading the reader’s attention with minor figures from the “appendix” to the sixth letter of the FMS. Therefore, I quote the principal points. At the same time, I immediately show, and what the official site of Rosstat, www.gks.ru, reports about the same.
"2005 year. The total number of completed migration card forms received from border agencies of the FSB of Russia, 25 506 720; including entry parts - 14 226 286, exit parts - 11 280 434. From these FSB data, it follows that the migration increase (the excess of entry into Russia over leaving it) in 2005 amounted to 2 945 852 (14 226 286 minus 11 280 434). And Rosstat informed us that only 107 432 (entered - 177 230, left - 69 798). Hence, the hidden (not reflected by Rosstat reports) part of the migration increment was 2 838 418 (2 945 852 minus 107 432). As they say in Odessa, feel the two big differences!
"2006 year. The total number of completed migration card forms received from border agencies of the FSB of Russia, 27 848 010; including entry parts - 15 184 268, exit parts - 12 663 842. According to the FSB, the migration increase in 2006 was 2 520 426, and according to Rosstat, 132 319 (entered - 186 380, left - 54 062). The hidden part of the migration gain is 2 388 107.
"2007 year. The total number of completed migration card forms received from border agencies of the FSB of Russia, 30 710 199; including entry parts - 16 416 852, exit parts - 14 293 347. According to the FSB, the migration increase in 2007 was 2 123 505, and according to Rosstat, 239 943 (entered - 286 056, left - 47 013). The hidden part of the migration gain is 1 883 562.
"2008 year. The total number of completed migration card forms received from border agencies of the FSB of Russia, 33 684 200; including: entry parts - 18 011 718, exit parts - 15 672 482. According to the FSB, the migration increase in 2008 was 2 339 236, and according to Rosstat, 242 106 (entered - 281 614, left - 39 508). The hidden part of the migration gain is 2 097 130.
"2009 year. The total number of completed migration card forms received from border agencies of the FSB of Russia, 36 241 217; including entry parts - 18 762 080, exit parts - 17 479 137. According to the FSB, the migration increase in 2009 was 1 282 943, and according to Rosstat, 247 449 (entered - 279 907, left - 32 458). The hidden part of the migration gain is 1 035 494.
"2010 year. The total number of completed migration card forms received from border agencies of the FSB of Russia, 39 501 010; including entry parts - 20 588 911, exit parts - 18 912 099. According to the FSB, the migration increase in 2010 was 1 676 812, and according to Rosstat, 158 079 (entered - 191 656, left - 33 577). The hidden part of the migration gain is 1 518 733.
Summing up. PS of the FSB of Russia recorded that the actual (!) Migration increase for 2005-2010 years - 12 888 774. And according to Rosstat, a long-term migration increase, registered (!) By the territorial bodies of the FMS, is 1 127 328. Thus, the unregistered, and therefore hidden, part of the migration increase over the 2005-2010 years (not reflected by the Rosstat chronicles) was 11 761 446. Got a “subtlety” ?!
In the 2005-2010 years, the Rosstat, with its chronicles, “legalized” less than 10% of the real migration increase of this period!
Let's compare. According to Rosstat, the migration increase for 1989-2010 amounted to 7 million, and the FSB of Russia FS recorded that only for 2005-2010 years the actual migration increase was 12 888 774. In my opinion, the interview of V.P. Ivanov in AiF (N15, 2002) and the “appendix” to the sixth letter of the FMS unconditionally refute (!) The results of the 2002 and 2010 censuses from Rosstat!
Finally, to illustrate what is happening, consider the absurd situation. Imagine that in the 2005-2010 years, Ms. I.A. Zbarskaya (head of the Department of Population and Health Statistics of Rosstat) in her own apartment or in her own cottage recorded a migration increase in external migrants to 13! Naturally, she turns in all instances and asks for clean up. And in response, he hears that at her address “is registered with the territorial body of the FMS and lives more than 1 of the year” of the entire 1 (one) migrant! The rest are not subject to "statistical observation"!
Missed chapter "Strategy-2020"
So far, two key indicators remain outside the framework of the discussion of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation, and now the national issue. For 1992-2011, the extinction of the Russian people (from Rosstat reports) was no less than 20 million. And the migration increase, as we saw above, averages not less than plus 2 million per year, and for 23 of the year (1989 -2011) guaranteed to exceed 40 million. And since the migration growth in Rosstat for 1989-2010 was only plus 7 million (5,5 million for 1989 and 1,5 million for 2003-2010), its hidden part is today no less than plus 35 million!
By virtue of this default, these discussions simply cannot reach the level of convergence of these two processes into one! Meanwhile, the presentation of these two processes in continuity makes a strong impression, especially if you enter into the calculations the hidden part of the migration increase! Since the author does not yet have full border control data for 1992-2011 years, further is calculated at the level of the order of numbers.
Every year of the 1992-2011 period, Russia is in the red for 1 million endangered Russians (based on Rosstat data) and positive for 2 million migration gains (based on interviews of top officials of the Russian Federation and border control data for 2005-2010. ). The migration increase of the Russian people was approximately balanced by the natural growth of all other peoples of the Russian Federation, both historically indigenous to Russia and those who came from external migration.
It follows that every year of the 1992-2011 period, the excess of the number of the Russian people over the number of all other peoples of the Russian Federation was reduced by 3 million! That is, this excess should have been reduced over the years by 60 million. It should have been, but I remind you that during the censuses of 2002 and 2010 to 5 million, the respondents revised their national identity and called themselves Russians. Russian 5 million "arrived", and all other nations - "departed."
And because the excess of the number of the Russian people over the number of all other peoples of the Russian Federation has declined in twenty years (1992-2011) not by 60 million, but “only” by 50 million! Just!
According to the 12 census of January 1989, the number of Russian people in the RSFSR was 119,9 million, and the number of all other peoples was 27,1 million. That is, the Russian people outnumbered the other peoples of the RSFSR by 92,8 million.
I repeat once again: as soon as the hidden part of the migration increase for 1989-2010 is entered into the calculations - no less than 35 million, the statistics on demography in the Russian Federation immediately undergo a dramatic revision!
Currently, the resident population of the Russian Federation is not at all 143 million, as Rosstat says, but about 180 million: Russians - 110 million (60%), all other peoples - 70 million (40%). The excess of the number of the Russian people over the number of all other nations today is no more than 40 million! By the way, there is a reason to correlate among themselves 180 million of the resident population of the Russian Federation and the mortality rate shown by Rosstat in recent years in 2 million per year.
And finally, the main thing: what's next? What predictions are calculated on the basis of the already well-known dynamics of the extinction of the Russian people and its replacement by external migration? Nothing comforting: the unified process of extinction of the Russian people and its replacement by external migration passes to the next stage.
Here it is necessary to remind something. In 1987, in the RSFSR 2-2,1 million Russian children were born (with a total birth rate of 2,5 million). And in the 1993 year, already in the Russian Federation, only 1 million were born to Russian children (with a total birth rate less than 1,4 million). And after 1993, in the Russian Federation, 1 million (plus or minus 100 000) is born in Russian children a year.
In 2011, the first Novorossiysk Russian generation, 1993, was born. If the two-to-one ratio in the neighboring generations of the Russian people persists (there are no other preconditions yet), then in 2015-2020 a second “Novorossiyansky” Russian generation will emerge, which will be only 500 000 (plus or minus 100 000 ) in year.
And in the current decade (2010-2020) there will be a significant transition-shift: the Russian people will have less children than all other peoples of Russia! Let me remind you that quite recently, in the 1987 year, the Russian people had four times more children than all other nations.
Beginning with the 1994 year, the Russian mortality rate regularly reaches the mark of 2 million per year; total mortality, according to Rosstat, to 2,37 million in 2003 year. However, considering that in the 50 of the 20th century more than 2,5 million children per year were born in the RSFSR, taking into account the current life expectancy and especially considering the migration increase, there is every reason to expect that in 2015-2020 the total mortality in Russia will reach 3 million per year. Russian mortality at the same time will reach the level of 2,5 million per year.
Beginning with 1993, the Russian people are dying out by 1 million per year. But, as we see, there is good reason to expect that in 2015-2020 years, the extinction of the Russian people will reach 2 million per year!
Assume that the migration increase will remain at the level of 2 million per year. At the same time, the migration increase of the Russian people will continue to decline and may turn into a migration decline. It is obvious that the natural growth of all other peoples of Russia, indigenous and newcomers, will continue to grow. Consequently, there is every reason to expect that the excess of the number of the Russian people over the number of all other peoples of the Russian Federation during this period (2015-2020) will begin to decline already by 4 million per year!
At the same time, it can be assumed that with the simplification of the visa regime with the European Union, the United States and other countries, a mass departure will begin from the Russian Federation, and above all, Russian youth - cultural, educated, law-abiding, with European face control! Today, opinion polls show that over the past twenty years (1992-2011), the share of those who would like to leave the Russian Federation has increased from 5% to 21%; and this is at least 30 million people!
Summing up. Before 2020, the Russian people will die out by no less than 10 million; all other peoples of Russia will increase their number by a natural increase by another plus 7-8 million; the migration increase of foreign migrants for Russia will be another plus 20 million, minus the quite possible departure of several million Russians from Russia. Forgot nothing?
These calculations show that by 2020, the current excess of the number of the Russian people over the number of all other peoples of the Russian Federation in 40 million will evaporate! And in the 2020 area, the share of the Russian people in the total population of the Russian Federation will fall below 50%. In my view, this is an objective condition for the beginning of the last collapse of Russia according to the Yugoslav scenario. With ours, of course, the specifics, but will not find it enough.
This does not mean that the collapse of Russia will begin exactly in the 2020 year or sometime later. Decay can begin before the 2020 year! We all see that move stories dizzy speeds up, and that weak states are crushed and swept away mercilessly! I hope no one will argue that over the past twenty years (1992-2011) Russia has become stronger on 20 million extinct Russians ?! Or that the hidden migration increase in 35 million alien migrants "raised Russia from its knees" ?!
His first election article V.V. Putin called "Russia is focusing." But the achieved dynamics of the extinction of the Russian people and its replacement by external migration shows the exact opposite: Russia is rapidly spreading! Is it possible that during the 12 years of their stay in the highest posts of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin did not understand this ?!
And the Moscow and St. Petersburg clever men, those who first composed the “Concept-2020”, then the “Strategy-2020”, in which the stages of the “further development” of the “new democratic Great Russia” before the 2020 year began, V.V. Putin spent hours chirping on television about anything - did they not understand this either ?! What to say to this: the poor fellows have embraced the ideas of "market democracy" and "rootless globalism" for the most!
And there is something to think about: after the collapse of the Soviet Union, today's Russia was given only thirty years to have less than half of its population in Russia. And twenty of these thirty years have passed!
Information