Military Review

The New Rise of Old Empires ("The National Interest", USA)

52
The New Rise of Old Empires ("The National Interest", USA)There is much talk about the collapse of the Westphalian system of sovereign nation-states. This system recognized the inviolability of borders, and it was based on the thesis that what states do within their borders does not concern anyone else. Today it is claimed that this historical the system was destroyed as a result of Western interventions: first to overthrow Slobodan Milosevic and create Bosnia, then Kosovo, then to displace Saddam Hussein, and after less than 10 years, Muammar Gaddafi. According to some experts, the creation of new states and mini-states, whether the Caucasus or South Sudan, contributed to such destabilization. But according to neo-conservative and liberal interventionists, there is nothing wrong with these events.


However, as in many other situations, in reality everything is not so simple. Firstly, regime change was unlikely to start with Milosevic or Saddam. What was the fall of two Napoleons - in 1815 and 1870 - if not by changing regimes? Two world wars also caused a change of regimes and the creation of new states. On the other hand, one less noticeable event should be noted, which returns us to the era when the Westphalian peace treaty came into force in 1648. We are talking about the growing triumphalism of a number of empires that fell in their time. In East Asia, China is increasingly demonstrating its political, economic, and military muscles as the dominant power, before which others must bow down obsequiously. In the Middle East and Central Asia, Turkey uses its newfound economic and political power to spread influence over the many countries that were once part of the Ottoman Empire. And Moscow uses the power and influence that energy resources give it, and it pursues the policy of tsarism in Europe and in regions adjacent to Russia from the former Russian Empire. We should not forget about the influence of India in South Asia. In the region where the Mughals once ruled, its economy overshadows its neighbors. It should be remembered about the imperial mantle, which Brazil inherited from Portugal, taking advantage of its growing economic power.

The imperial legacy of these states gives them an incentive to enhance their own value not only in their own regions, but also on the world stage. During visits to these countries and meetings with representatives of their elites, the feeling that they are returning to their traditional role of leading powers is becoming increasingly stronger. The dynamism that has not been able to extinguish even the current economic downturn has forced these countries to join forces in order to gain more weight in the G-20, the United Nations and other international institutions. It also led to a significant expansion of cooperation between them. Naturally, there is rivalry and friction between these five countries. Turkey and Russia are fighting for influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Russia is still afraid of Chinese encroachment on Siberia. India and China with distrust watch each other across a common border, fight for influence in Myanmar and maintain conflicting relations with Pakistan. And Brazil and China are competing for influence in Africa.

And everyone believes that the United States, and even more so Europe, should no longer monopolize the decision-making process, pushing the international community aside. They reject the order that prevailed after the Second World War, calling it obsolete, and do not automatically accept American leadership on any issues. It should be noted that out of this five, only Turkey sent its troops to the international coalition in Afghanistan, and that none of these countries agreed to send their troops to Iraq. In addition, Turkey was the only country of the five that agreed to somehow participate in the Libyan operation, and its main contribution, made without any enthusiasm, was that it did not stop other NATO countries from conducting an offensive against Gaddafi. no symptoms or signals indicating that the imperial spirit and accompanying claims to special rights are weakening in these five countries. On the contrary, every year it only intensifies. Washington politicians and statesmen currently obsessed with another heir to the empire - Iran, must understand and acknowledge that these states have more than impressive economic growth, military expansion, and political influence. Americans are well known for their lack of sensitivity to history. But they will need all the receptivity that they are able to accumulate in order to successfully deal with those states whose claims for a more significant role in the world are due not only to current successes, but also to their former glory.
Author:
Originator:
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/old-empires-rise-again-7074
52 comments
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  1. vadimus
    vadimus 20 June 2012 08: 42
    +5
    History repeats itself, the world does not stand still, which means again war and blood again ...
    1. andrey586
      andrey586 20 June 2012 09: 07
      +8
      A multipolar world is emerging! In 10 years, few people will reckon with the opinion of the USA
      1. pirate technician
        pirate technician 20 June 2012 09: 26
        +10
        Yes, it seems to me that the United States will not have its own opinion at all, because it will fall apart. That is, the South will depart to Mexico, North-Canada, and we will regain Alaska. With such an economic pace, the amers will soon have no resources left. And as you know, nothing raises the economy high like some kind of military clash, which is why the Yankees are climbing into the Middle East and Afghanistan, the bearers of democracy are bloody.
        1. raptorr
          raptorr 20 June 2012 10: 59
          -19
          Yes, it seems to me that the United States will not have its own opinion at all, because it will fall apart. That is, the South will depart to Mexico, North-Canada, and we will regain Alaska
          Fantasy Vesnukhin ...... Rather, the opposite will be
          1. Bunny
            Bunny 20 June 2012 14: 17
            +10
            US will ruin the dollar! Moreover, the paradox is that it is not fatal for America that it collapses, which everyone expects and fears, but just the opposite — its dominance! Unfounded and corrupting. Satisfaction robs incentives. And such an example in history has already been: Spain! .. capturing all the gold of the New World Indians. Very quickly progress in the snickering empire came to naught, consumerism and the desire for luxury killed Spain as the world's leading power. Such is the price of any freebie! About the same processes are taking place in the USA, and the faster their dollar collapses, the better for them.
            But no one has ever given up freebies of their own free will.
          2. 755962
            755962 20 June 2012 16: 22
            +7
            Quote: raptorr
            . Rather, the opposite will be

            I guess you're right .. The US Army will continue to expand its role in the internal affairs of the country, including responding to natural disasters and terrorism-related crises. This is the opinion of the chief of staff of the army, Raymond Odierno, who recently wrote an article in Foreign Affairs, the mouthpiece of propaganda published by the Council on Foreign Relations.The Council on Foreign Relations (QS) suggests that the US Army will be used to plan, manage, and exercise (through civilian law enforcement) police functions within the country ... http://mixednews.ru/archives/19314
      2. mind1954
        mind1954 20 June 2012 22: 14
        0
        You understand, a unipolar world is needed not by the United States, but by the TransNational
        Capital! Before World War I, London was its headquarters,
        and after the second, quite naturally, the USA! Whatever happens with the USA,
        TransNacCapital will still strive for a unipolar world,
        even with a different headquarters, you see, it’s also more convenient!

        This rat fuss will continue as long as there is
        CAPITAL, but on the globe the resources are already running out, and the population
        grows like cockroaches, and these are people and they must have human
        a life ! How to provide it with capital?

        And besides, the power of modern productive forces is such that
        civilization cannot afford, as before, technology
        "jungle" - one wrong move and from ALL there will be a "wet place" !!!
    2. FiremanRS
      FiremanRS 21 June 2012 00: 26
      0
      The article is actually muddy ...... minus definitely! Nothing new and informative.
  2. Forget
    Forget 20 June 2012 08: 42
    +9
    This is the end of the US monopoly, other countries also want to have an opinion ...... otherwise the empires shouted))
  3. Alexander Romanov
    Alexander Romanov 20 June 2012 08: 43
    +3
    Well, and what is the rise of empires? The same political idiocy that ultimately leads to war and the collapse of empires. The question is when, will it all begin or when will it all end.
  4. volcano
    volcano 20 June 2012 08: 49
    +10
    The very fact of the revival of new "old empires" only confirms the idea that there are peoples who, by virtue of their genes and heredity, are able to create powerful states, but there is all sorts of garbage (Poland, the Baltic states, etc. comes out
    1. raptorr
      raptorr 20 June 2012 11: 03
      -6
      It seems like yes. But on the other hand, the former USSR of the USA is a huge gathering of peoples.
  5. itr
    itr 20 June 2012 08: 53
    +3
    To be honest, I didn’t understand at all what the author wants to say. If about imperial ambitions, then all of the countries listed were empires in different years, not in a century
    1. Middle-brother
      Middle-brother 20 June 2012 09: 13
      +8
      itr
      to be honest, me too. A brief overview of the state of the modern world’s device, and make your own conclusions. The grass is green, the sky is blue, the Americans are ... until ... we. This is so everyone knows.
  6. AK-74-1
    AK-74-1 20 June 2012 09: 02
    +2
    The author is handsome. Everything is very precisely put in place. The world community is nothing, amers are everything. Amer is a monopolist in making global decisions. Etc. A good author honestly admitted that Amers wanted to create a new totalitarianism, with the amers at the head. I respect the opinion of Amers in this matter, but I want Russia to be the hegemonic country.
  7. aksakal
    aksakal 20 June 2012 09: 12
    +3
    Quote: itr
    To be honest, I didn’t understand at all what the author wants to say. If about imperial ambitions, then all of the countries listed were empires in different years, not in a century

    - also did not quite understand the author. Well, they used to be empires, well, there are elements of spreading along the old tracks ... Germany will soon wake up to its full height. Is this unnatural? Only the USA is entitled to an empire? What did you want to say?
    1. Ilyich
      Ilyich 20 June 2012 14: 25
      0
      What did you want to say?

      Apparently, the fact that the Yankees do not have their own, pronounced history of their statehood. Their national historical roots are still very short .. Therefore, they do not pay attention to this factor when making decisions.
      Moreover, they do not pay attention not only to their national identity, but also to the national identity of other, more ancient cultures, such as Russia, China, India. But, if in their case this is true (because their history of the state is too short), then with the ancient cultures to discard this factor is fraught.
      And what if they continue in the same vein - they will make a bunch of mistakes and fly to the dustbin of History ....
      However, I think they will fly there anyway ...
    2. vladimir64ss
      vladimir64ss 20 June 2012 15: 50
      0
      Quote: aksakal
      What did you want to say?

      Probably this article is for their internal consumption. Then it is a call to "extinguish" the old empires until they rise.
  8. Forget
    Forget 20 June 2012 09: 12
    +3
    In physics, there is the concept of entropy, in short, everything in nature strives to go into the most probable state. I think the same thing can be applied to humanity, the world strives for balance so that empires disappear.
    1. Igarr
      Igarr 20 June 2012 09: 34
      +3
      "There should be only one left" .. Duncan MacLeod.

      In our case, one. Empire.
      Russian.
      1. raptorr
        raptorr 20 June 2012 11: 04
        -2
        The probability is very small. And desires are just desires.
        1. Ilyich
          Ilyich 20 June 2012 14: 32
          0
          It's not a matter of probability. Not a lottery game ..
          Those who have stronger eggs will remain, and not the one whose starting conditions are better.
    2. alexng
      alexng 20 June 2012 20: 55
      0
      Once they talked about Nature, then in Her everything tends to balance. And, if an excess potential accumulates somewhere, then Nature destroys this potential, and no trolls will help here, since it takes less energy than pulling the others to the value of this excess potential. Guess which country has accumulated excess capacity now?
  9. Kaa
    Kaa 20 June 2012 09: 50
    +2
    All empires fall apart. The author that hints at American imperialism and hints that, they say, it is time? Federalization, or is it more correct to say US stateing is coming? Stormy, rolling in applause, prolonged applause.
  10. korvin1976
    korvin1976 20 June 2012 10: 21
    +3
    An empire is not a country that is "currently" strong or gaining strength. The empire is, first of all, the formation of the camp.
    The classic order of the empire is something like this:
    The EMPEROR stands above everything (you can call it anything you like, the name of the case does not change). The emperor is chosen by the people for life, without the right to transfer power by inheritance.
    Under the emperor, there is a special caste, let's call it PALADINS, in which people are immensely loyal to the emperor, I have unlimited opportunities to control all echelons of power and the realities of the empire. Something like Gogol, in the novel "The Inspector General". At the same time, paladins can only control, investigate, but not take any action when violations are detected, they report all violations to the emperor.
    Under the emperor are:
    Let's call him the PRESIDENT "business executive".
    "Military" let's call him GENERAL.
    And the person responsible for foreign policy will call him AMBASSADOR.
    Each of these three controls its own direction.
    All BASIC decisions are made by the Emperor, the governing elite performs the tasks of the Emperor.
    Paladins control these tasks.

    This is an approximate scheme, there are many small and not very organizational issues, but in order to explain everything you need to write a book. wink

    It is possible that this empire is probably not enough for us, or rather, we are lacking now primarily the very PALADINS that could control the fulfillment of tasks.
    1. raptorr
      raptorr 20 June 2012 11: 08
      +1
      more precisely, we are lacking now primarily the very PALADINS that could control the implementation of the tasks.

      Whether there are not enough guardsmen.
      But the rest of the model is not bad. It’s just how to deal with the emperor who has branded or gone too far, if suddenly this happens ......
      1. korvin1976
        korvin1976 20 June 2012 11: 44
        +3
        Oprichniki could do the trial themselves, but the Paladins would not have such a will. Rather, they are purely auditors, controllers.
        At the expense of the presumptuous emperor, the same issues are resolved, as the people have chosen, and will be able to remove.
        Of course, the structure and system is designed for utopian realities, but to some extent there is a place to be. Even if we move away from becoming an empire, we now lack in the state just such control bodies as paladins. I constantly observe such a picture, they say one thing to the TOP, and the situation on the ground is completely different, and because of this, there is confusion and reeling. And this not only in the country and in the government, but also in more or less large firms, the same thing happens. Not so stupid people usually sit at the top, but so far some order will reach ordinary performers, then as a rule it will come to almost taking the reverse form, a broken phone syndrome. From such things are just the main problems. A classic example: changing the rules of movement in a circular motion. Moscow has moved to the new rule, and the regions both traveled the old fashioned way and go, and the same traffic police in the regions support this same rule.
      2. Ljubomir
        Ljubomir 20 June 2012 11: 52
        0
        raptor And the rest of the model is not bad. Just how to deal with a crazy or presumptuous emperor, if suddenly this happens ...... That's why there is a parliament
        1. NUT
          NUT 20 June 2012 11: 56
          +1
          Quote: Lubomyr
          ... Because there is a parliament

          "Americans: the people who are looking for a pill for all diseases - and elect it to Congress."
          Leonard Louis Levinson
          1. korvin1976
            korvin1976 20 June 2012 12: 43
            +1
            As I already said, the Emperor is elected by the people for a life term, and the parliament or duma (the name does not matter) is elected every two years. According to approximately the same principle as now, but the term should be set less, so that they would not get too hung up. And they will not be overwhelmed, they will be the Paladins. At the same time, the "Parliament-Duma" will have the opportunity to remove the emperor, so to speak to express mistrust, but again through a popular referendum.
            I am not a writer, it’s hard enough for me to write the whole picture that I have in my head. In discussion mode, this is somewhat easier.
            1. Igarr
              Igarr 20 June 2012 13: 04
              +7
              Good picture.
              I like it.
              I see only one omission.
              Not enough .... cleaner. Let's call him Surgeon.
              Otherwise, they start .... Paladins with the Minister-Ambassador-President under the Emperor to dig.
              And then the Surgeon .. with stechkin.
              Once .... - and more sane Ambassador. Or the Minister. Or a paladin. Or the Emperor.
              1. korvin1976
                korvin1976 20 June 2012 13: 36
                +1
                In principle, the role of "Surgeon" can be performed by paladins, but this is too much.
                1. Bunny
                  Bunny 20 June 2012 14: 28
                  +8
                  We already had paladins and surgeons, they were called the Politburo, but insanity killed them all! ..
                  The normal, progressive development of human society is impossible in principle! Only through extreme: hunger, cold, fear ... Simply put - until the thunder strikes, the man does not cross himself!
                  1. NUT
                    NUT 20 June 2012 17: 10
                    +7
                    Quote: Bunny
                    but insanity killed them all!
                    It turns out almost popular wisdom:

                    "The age of the politician is 65 years old, and after that he falls into insanity."
                    Boris N. Yeltsin
                    1. Churchill
                      Churchill 20 June 2012 17: 17
                      +6
                      NUT,
                      Quote: NUT
                      "The age of the politician is 65 years old, and after that he falls into insanity."
                      Boris N. Yeltsin

                      What he once again proved by his existence !!!
                  2. korvin1976
                    korvin1976 20 June 2012 17: 22
                    +1
                    Do not confuse the Politburo and the auditors. smile
                    These are slightly different things. Paladin examiners are needed to control the Politburo
  11. htpm100
    htpm100 20 June 2012 11: 21
    +2
    "Washington politicians and statesmen, currently obsessed with another heir to the empire - Iran, must understand and recognize that these states have more than impressive economic growth, military expansion and political influence" they have respected Washington politicians and statesmen still there is a thousand-year history, traditions, a great culture that you did not have, no, and never will be.
    "in order to successfully deal with those states whose claims to a more significant role in the world are due not only to current successes, but also to past glory." I wish you good luck in the proceedings, but be careful, or even with you someday they will be sorted out
  12. NUT
    NUT 20 June 2012 11: 51
    +6
    Or maybe not at all drunk and the late Boris Nakolaevich didn’t make a reservation at all:

    "We will destroy our nuclear weapons together with America!"
    Boris N. Yeltsin
  13. Alexey Prikazchikov
    20 June 2012 12: 08
    +10
    The empire dies only when the people who are the bearers of the empire die. And the Russians are alive and very evil ...
    1. Bunny
      Bunny 20 June 2012 14: 30
      +8
      Alexey Prikazchikov,
      And anger is growing, because the people are going wild with idleness!
      1. Churchill
        Churchill 20 June 2012 17: 22
        +5
        Quote: Bunny
        And anger is growing, because the people are going wild with idleness!

        And if you still take into account the unmotivated rise in prices and tariffs !!! Generally shandets!
  14. Borodach
    Borodach 20 June 2012 12: 10
    +5
    Americans are well known for their lack of sensitivity to history.

    And how can the country's population behave based on runaway criminals, seekers of easy money and other scum who began the history of their country with the destruction of the indigenous population. And what good can be expected from them? The conclusion is simple — no roots — no conscience.
  15. Art111
    Art111 20 June 2012 12: 13
    +4
    Yes, America is bankrupt, but do not forget that it is the most armed bankrupt in the world.
  16. Ljubomir
    Ljubomir 20 June 2012 12: 45
    0
    For Art111, Debt exists only when it can be demanded. De Gaulle sent off the ship with the "thalers" and received a "student spring" and resignation. America prints money backed by weapons and for weapons. Bankrupts are African countries unable to defend themselves.
  17. Van
    Van 20 June 2012 13: 33
    +2
    Yes, the story is cyclical, but sooner or later someone will have to break this vicious circle. request
    We need to look to the future, because in my opinion in the future there should be one government on earth that will unite all peoples, abolish all borders and stop internecine wars, the only way we can go further in our development, but for now, unfortunately, we have to stagnate , therefore, there will be all these bloody wars, crises and other global catastrophes. crying

    Here is just one question, who will be able to do all this, and whether at all? what
    1. NUT
      NUT 20 June 2012 17: 34
      +1
      Quote: Wang
      in future there must remain one government on earth that will unite all peoples, will abolish all borders and stop internecine wars, the only way we can go further in our development, but for now, unfortunately, we have to stagnate

      In, damn it, as written:

      "This tribe does not have a fatherland and wherever it comes, it tries to destroy the feeling of patriotism, corrupting human minds. Jews seek to create a world republic, then they will be rulers of the world. More than anything in the world, we are afraid of the Jews and do not let them in. We see how they took possession of America and Europe. We can say that in their hands all the wealth of the world has accumulated. The war is heavily dependent on the Jews, thanks to the accumulation of capital in their hands. They play world markets like balls. We saw this during the war. RUSSIA was strong and strong in spirit until it was shattered by the Jews; Jews are destroying Russia; they have shaken its patriotism. They destroyed both France and other European states.
      Mobuchum Okuma Shigenbu (Prime Minister of Japan)
  18. seminyako
    seminyako 20 June 2012 14: 32
    +4
    At this stage, Russia does not have a slogan (or brand?) That can be presented to the people and the world for unification under the banners of Russia.
  19. apro
    apro 20 June 2012 14: 38
    +1
    The article didn’t like for the revival of the empire. The conditions are necessary new opportunities and ideas are simply not obvious. Desire is also an objective prerequisite. There is also an evil will. For example, the birth of the communist empire was necessary. The Russian empire lost the power of progressive movement. in one piece, increasing the shock effect and leading to the possibility of expanding influence on new territories, the new economy leveled the material well-being of all parts of the red empire. New empires, if they are, are small formations with extremely powerful armed forces and a suppression system having a powerful economy and or resource base capable of autocracy .Yes and the main idea will be only money and nothing personal
  20. khoma nickson
    khoma nickson 20 June 2012 15: 09
    +2
    I agree with Van. The time of "private" empires is long gone, and now imperial ambitions are more likely a compensatory reaction to internal disorders and a weak ability to enter a new round of development on their own. There is a lack of creative potential and relevant institutions, and cultural and historical heritage does not contribute to innovation, dynamism, entrepreneurship and scientific, technical and institutional progress. And imperial ambitions and attempts to realize them can only increase the pressure on existing resources and exacerbate current difficulties and problems. The world is indeed moving towards greater unity, but, as Sergei Trubetskoy foresaw in his "Teaching about the Logos": "The Great Being of the future, a true earthly being or a divine society, should embrace all of humanity and realize the kingdom of reason, peace and freedom. She alone can to serve as the ultimate goal of humanity in its entirety, and the peoples go to it in the general cultural work of their states, in their wars, alliances, revolutions and reformation, in their industry, technology, arts and science ... Who will win in the last struggle? Europeans, who defeated the titans of the East and divided the world among themselves? or the rebellious titans who wield their weapons? or the hardworking Nibelungs who undertook the aristocratic Valhalla of gods and heroes? In what image will the Great Being of the coming humanity appear? who will "feed the nations" or in the form of a many-headed "beast", a new universal dragon that will trample the nations, devour themand enslave everything for himself? "
  21. darkman70
    darkman70 20 June 2012 15: 40
    +1
    I don't remember who said - "Great nations always revive after great upheavals and at the same time become even stronger"
  22. alexanderv
    alexanderv 20 June 2012 17: 47
    +1
    Like it or not, like it or not, but all is one: it comes down to a new world fire.
  23. Nik090
    Nik090 20 June 2012 21: 26
    +2
    "Russia still fears Chinese encroachments on Siberia."

    These expressions begin to slowly annoy. Who is afraid of the Chinese, Moscow, so Moscow is not all of Russia. The oligarchs, officials, the authorities, at last, are also not the whole Russian people. Do you really think that if you smell fried, then SIBERIANS will be scared the Chinese ...
  24. Van
    Van 20 June 2012 21: 30
    0
    Quote: khoma nickson
    The time of "private" empires is long gone, and now imperial ambitions are rather a compensatory reaction to internal disorders and a weak ability to enter a new round of development

    I put plus +
    You can’t say better, and most importantly in the topic. yes

    Quote: khoma nickson
    Who will win the last fight?

    I think everyone has equal chances, the main approach and some definite vision of the future. yes